Manning - updated stats 05/03/24

[Fuber]

39 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It feels likely some of the mid 40s could be surpassed this year, the runs of QPR and Sheffield Wednesday have been outstanding.

Perhaps the 2 outstanding post sacking appointments in Cifuentes and Rohl albeit their bases were so low that the only way was up in a sense.

Rohl inspired by Chansiri, was a cracking appointment.

The fact even that nutjob can look abroad and get it right while we have birdbrained Tinnion and crayon-eater in charge just... hurts.

Edited March 6 by Fuber

[Dr Balls]

47 minutes ago, cityal said:

It's certainly not guaranteed relegation, but it is occasionally true that 50 pts will get you relegated -  either way 50 points is definitely too close for comfort.

True

True ignoring Goal difference survival these are the points required to have been safe and clear of 22nd place in the last 10 seasons

2022/23 - 45 pts

2021/22 - 38 pts

2020/21 - 44 pts

2019/20 - 49 pts

2018/19 - 41 pts

2017/18 - 42 pts

2016/17 - 52 pts

2015/16 - 41 pts

2014/15 - 42 pts

2013/14 - 44 pts

 

You have conveniently missed out 2012/13. Peterborough relegated on 54 points, while Wolves came 23rd on 51 points (6th placed Leicester only had 68 points). We had a losing streak of 7 games and of course got relegated too…

[Andy082005]

Sundays game is massive now. It really is a must win game 

[The Original OTIB]

6 hours ago, Dr Balls said:

Yes but they sacked Beale and are still losing. Shouldn’t have sacked Mowbray.

Was searching for positives! Keep it up Mackems!

[ExiledAjax]

6 hours ago, Dr Balls said:

You have conveniently missed out 2012/13. Peterborough relegated on 54 points, while Wolves came 23rd on 51 points (6th placed Leicester only had 68 points). We had a losing streak of 7 games and of course got relegated too…

So 3 teams in the last, what is that, 12 seasons of you include his one (and I still think it's unlikely that 50 will take anyone down in May). 3 out of 36.

50 is a target that all but guarantees safety. It's absolutely not relegation form.

[Dr Balls]

30 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

So 3 teams in the last, what is that, 12 seasons of you include his one (and I still think it's unlikely that 50 will take anyone down in May). 3 out of 36.

50 is a target that all but guarantees safety. It's absolutely not relegation form.

Lose the next 2 games and it’s 1 point per game over half a season (23 matches) for Manning. That’s relegation form!

[Sir Geoff]

9 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Ahem..

NP AND Fleming.

Let's not forget the Fleming game.

21 Pts, 15 games..

6 wins.

1.4 PPG and 40% League win ratio.

Extrapolated over 46 games is 64.4 points. Top 8 / 10.

[ENOUGH]

So here we sit 6pts from, 2 of the bottom 3 teams; out of all the teams below us 5 have a game in hand and 1 has 2 games in hand;

Jon is this what you had in mind when you sacked the most exp manager we`ve had for a long while and brought in a manager with no championship exp?

[ExiledAjax]

57 minutes ago, Dr Balls said:

Lose the next 2 games and it’s 1 point per game over half a season (23 matches) for Manning. That’s relegation form!

46 or 1 ppg is still more likely to see you safe than relegated. It would be tight, and there are examples of teams going down with that total but more often than not it keeps you up.

This holds across almost all divisions and leagues btw. More often than not 1 ppg is enough.

I'm not saying I'd be happy with it, but true "relegation form" is more like 0.9 - 0.95 ppg.

[Dr Balls]

11 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

46 or 1 ppg is still more likely to see you safe than relegated. It would be tight, and there are examples of teams going down with that total but more often than not it keeps you up.

This holds across almost all divisions and leagues btw. More often than not 1 ppg is enough.

I'm not saying I'd be happy with it, but true "relegation form" is more like 0.9 - 0.95 ppg.

Keep Manning long enough and I reckon that 0.9 PPG or worse is quite possible this season under his coaching. And we might even avoid relegation with that but it still doesn’t mean it’s acceptable!

[Notbarrymanc]

9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Is that one of those things you can spell on your calculator by turning it upside down!

You’re thinking of BOOBS mate.
 

Obviously been on OTIB too long. 

[Ian M]

1 hour ago, Dr Balls said:

Keep Manning long enough and I reckon that 0.9 PPG or worse is quite possible this season under his coaching. And we might even avoid relegation with that but it still doesn’t mean it’s acceptable!

Generally Manning’s time is here has a theme of “regression”. I just hope he can halt that and repeat his return of 8 points from the last 10 games over the remaining 10 games and get us to 31 points from 31 games under his leadership. And safety.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

46 or 1 ppg is still more likely to see you safe than relegated. It would be tight, and there are examples of teams going down with that total but more often than not it keeps you up.

This holds across almost all divisions and leagues btw. More often than not 1 ppg is enough.

I'm not saying I'd be happy with it, but true "relegation form" is more like 0.9 - 0.95 ppg.

The rally from QPR and Sheffield Wednesday though?

After we beat Southampton they were 15 and 18 points behind respectively. Now it is 6 apiece. Wonder how long they will keep rallying for.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Dr Balls said:

Keep Manning long enough and I reckon that 0.9 PPG or worse is quite possible this season under his coaching. And we might even avoid relegation with that but it still doesn’t mean it’s acceptable!

In terms of ppg it's really the last ten games or so that have been awful.

For the first 10 or so games under Manning we actually tracked at ppg rates that were closed to what we achieved under Pearson. At times worse, but on occasions better. His first 9 games saw us at 1.7ppg from ten (catches Fleming's win as well). After his first 10, which ended with the draw away to Birmingham, Manning was on 1.5ppg.

But since that point it's steadily declined other than the understandable kick provided by the Boro and Southampton wins.

Ultimately though PPG is a fickle stat that can be determined by any number of arbitrarily selected games. I look at 10 game blocks. I know @Davefevs favours 6, and right now if you really want to stick the knife into Manning then **** it go with a 4 game block and declare that we're on 0.00ppg.

Ultimately, for me, the decline without response over the past 5-10 games is the concerning element of the ppg track under Manning rather than any single ppg figure derived from any block of games.

[Mr Popodopolous]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

In terms of ppg it's really the last ten games or so that have been awful.

For the first 10 or so games under Manning we actually tracked at ppg rates that were closed to what we achieved under Pearson. At times worse, but on occasions better. His first 9 games saw us at 1.7ppg from ten (catches Fleming's win as well). After his first 10, which ended with the draw away to Birmingham, Manning was on 1.5ppg.

But since that point it's steadily declined other than the understandable kick provided by the Boro and Southampton wins.

Ultimately though PPG is a fickle stat that can be determined by any number of arbitrarily selected games. I look at 10 game blocks. I know @Davefevs favours 6, and right now if you really want to stick the knife into Manning then **** it go with a 4 game block and declare that we're on 0.00ppg.

Ultimately, for me, the decline without response over the past 5-10 games is the concerning element of the ppg track under Manning rather than any single ppg figure derived from any block of games.

If anything the Fleming game should be credited to NP, neither really but he brought him here, that game in a  sense was the last hurrah of the NP era.

Agree with much of the post however.

Edited March 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Original OTIB]

Manning only won 2 of last 10 for Oxford after appointed, and those were against Forest Green and Cheltenham. Much of this debacle down to timing. He ain't a mid / late season guy. 

Equally, he struggled at MK with a 5 game losing run near to the end of his time. The accusation again that he was too rigid with his "plans". The evidence for me is that he is a coach who needs a pre season and a lot of recruitment. We were never in that position. We can't gamble on his credentials to recruit at this level either. Whatever happens, he should go in the summer.

[Davefevs]

34 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

In terms of ppg it's really the last ten games or so that have been awful.

For the first 10 or so games under Manning we actually tracked at ppg rates that were closed to what we achieved under Pearson. At times worse, but on occasions better. His first 9 games saw us at 1.7ppg from ten (catches Fleming's win as well). After his first 10, which ended with the draw away to Birmingham, Manning was on 1.5ppg.

But since that point it's steadily declined other than the understandable kick provided by the Boro and Southampton wins.

Ultimately though PPG is a fickle stat that can be determined by any number of arbitrarily selected games. I look at 10 game blocks. I know @Davefevs favours 6, and right now if you really want to stick the knife into Manning then **** it go with a 4 game block and declare that we're on 0.00ppg.

Ultimately, for me, the decline without response over the past 5-10 games is the concerning element of the ppg track under Manning rather than any single ppg figure derived from any block of games.

I stay true to my 6 game block….before last night it was 6 from 6, it’s still 6 from 6, what’s all the panic

[ExiledAjax]

48 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The rally from QPR and Sheffield Wednesday though?

After we beat Southampton they were 15 and 18 points behind respectively. Now it is 6 apiece. Wonder how long they will keep rallying for.

But these rallies are countered by slumps for teams like Stoke and Plymouth. After Southampton they were 12 and 8 behind us. Having played 1 and 2 games fewer than us respectively. Now those gaps have halved, some due to them playing their games in hand, and some down to form.

However over 6 games Stoke are on the same form as us, Plymouth worse. Over 4 they've both got a W1 L3 record so slightly better than us.

Honestly, we're so unlikely to go down.

41 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

If anything the Fleming game should be credited to NP, neither really but he brought him here, that game in a  sense was the last hurrah of the NP era.

No. Just as the Boro game at the start of his reign, Pearson was not our manager for Fleming's win. We must be consistent in application or stats lose all meaning.

Anyway, I noted it's inclusion as I was being consistent with 10 game blocks. Manning was on 1.55 after his first 9, which dropped to 1.5 for ten games after Birmingham away.

[cityal]

11 hours ago, Dr Balls said:

You have conveniently missed out 2012/13. Peterborough relegated on 54 points, while Wolves came 23rd on 51 points (6th placed Leicester only had 68 points). We had a losing streak of 7 games and of course got relegated too…

That is true. It was not really "convenient", it just it wasn't in the last 10 seasons and it was late when I was compiling the list.

The data source i was using went back as far as 2003. In the period I didn't add to the post (2003-2013) there were maybe another three (?)  "Over fifty points needed for safety" seasons. 

It's more evidence we might need fifty plus points this season; as others have alluded to improved form below us points to a higher total being likely this year. However to dress it up as 50 points is always being relegated is IMO stretching it.

Just to be clear I think we will likely be safe, but we absolutely must pick up our form and get some points soon or the end of the season could be a lot more worrying than I expected  it would have been with NP in charge. I do not like the current trajectory of the club. From what felt positive before, it now feels toxic. If things go south from here blame needs to be laid not with LM but with the executive club management.

[Mr Popodopolous]

4 hours ago, Sir Geoff said:

Extrapolated over 46 games is 64.4 points. Top 8 / 10.

Exactly.

Whereas this..well at the present time, we would have 39.42 points. Bottom 6 at best.

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

But these rallies are countered by slumps for teams like Stoke and Plymouth. After Southampton they were 12 and 8 behind us. Having played 1 and 2 games fewer than us respectively. Now those gaps have halved, some due to them playing their games in hand, and some down to form.

However over 6 games Stoke are on the same form as us, Plymouth worse. Over 4 they've both got a W1 L3 record so slightly better than us.

Honestly, we're so unlikely to go down.

No. Just as the Boro game at the start of his reign, Pearson was not our manager for Fleming's win. We must be consistent in application or stats lose all meaning.

Anyway, I noted it's inclusion as I was being consistent with 10 game blocks. Manning was on 1.55 after his first 9, which dropped to 1.5 for ten games after Birmingham away.

Perhaps the Fleming game should have its own category, like the Middlesbrough away in 2021 albeit there was a major galvanising factor clearly that evening.

Stoke and Plymouth have had alarming form albeit the former have dug out 2 wins recently.

Edited March 6 by Mr Popodopolous

[The Bard]

13 hours ago, City1970 said:

Manning is doing better than I expected. Perhaps the Lansdowns are thinking the same.

Only if you're all on crack.

 

[ExiledAjax]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Perhaps the Fleming game should have its own category, like the Middlesbrough away in 2021 albeit there was a major galvanising factor clearly that evening.

Oh Pop not you as well? Nigel Pearson did not cause us to win that Boro game through sheer force of presence or aura. He's just a man, he bleeds red like all of us.

If you want to give Pearson credit for Fleming's win, then Dean Holden can have the bloody credit for the Simpson/Downing double act getting three points at the Riverside.

Edited March 6 by ExiledAjax

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, ExiledAjax said:

Oh Pop not you as well? Nigel Pearson did not cause us to win that Boro game through sheer force of presence or aura. He's just a man, he bleeds red like all of us.

It seems strange though tbh EA, that we were rudderless and getting thumped at times albeit not always- Brentford away we played quire well, Sheffield United away was a close run thing but think of the Reading, Barnsley, Watford to name 3.

Something changed that evening, not sure what but something. Maybe it wasn't NP, perhaps a squad on its last legs can pull out performances now and then, perhaps playing at the Riverside is to our liking.

[ExiledAjax]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It seems strange though tbh EA, that we were rudderless and getting thumped at times albeit not always- Brentford away we played quire well, Sheffield United away was a close run thing but think of the Reading, Barnsley, Watford to name 3.

Something changed that evening, not sure what but something. Maybe it wasn't NP, perhaps a squad on its last legs can pull out performances now and then, perhaps playing at the Riverside is to our liking.

Maybe it was the absence of Holden rather than the presence of Pearson? Yet I never see that spun on here.

Sorry, sorry I shouldn't snap at you. It just winds me up irrationality. 

I've probably had enough OTIB for today tbh.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, ExiledAjax said:

Maybe it was the absence of Holden rather than the presence of Pearson? Yet I never see that spun on here.

Sorry, sorry I shouldn't snap at you. It just winds me up irrationality. 

I've probably had enough OTIB for today tbh.

That could also be a factor.

Technically speaking, NP can't take credit for the Middlesbrough win, Manning can't take credit for the Sheffield Wednesday win.

Judged strictly on merits and appointment dates they're all different categories.

[Dr Balls]

2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

The rally from QPR and Sheffield Wednesday though?

After we beat Southampton they were 15 and 18 points behind respectively. Now it is 6 apiece. Wonder how long they will keep rallying for.

Interesting to know what the odds might be on QPR or Sheffield Wednesday finishing above us at the end of the season and the odds on both of them doing it. Probably all less than our own relegation given current form!

[Jerseybean]

15 hours ago, Ziderarmy said:

After todays “performance” the stats now read -

 

Played = 21

Won = 6

Drew = 5

Lost = 10

Points per game = 1.09

Over a 46 game seasons that’s 50 points and relegation. 

Win percentage = 28%

Summary

Top 6 squad (so were told) playing bottom 6 (possible relegation) football 

Thank you Ziderarmy

Has anyone got a points per game record for our last three or four managers (excluding CF)? 
Be really interesting to see how they compare. 

[Dr Balls]

The problem for Manning is that just like Guardiola he needs a Rodri to make his system work and there is only one of those.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/68449995

The closest we have is Matty James and he is not being played for whatever reason.

[Jerseybean]

Points per game

Manning 1.12

Pearson 1.20

Holden 1.44

Johnson 1.41

[Numero Uno]

5 minutes ago, Jerseybean said:

Points per game

Manning 1.12

Pearson 1.20

Holden 1.44

Johnson 1.41

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