Milo Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 OK. Come back to us when there are 10000 votes and give us the results. But for the last time............ IT'S A POINTLESS POLL AND A RIDICULOUS EXERCISE! ←Polls such as these can be very powerful - just ask Steve Bruce about why Lee Bowyer didn't join Birmingham.The wording of these polls needs careful consideration to ensure that everyone is answering the same question (ie there must be no room for misunderstanding the question) and Rocky's question is OK.It is arguably a more valid exercise in guaging the fans' views than reading threads on the forum, but I accept that it is still not perfect.In terms of whether it is a representative sample size at 300, if we work on 40,000 fans having a view then that represents 0.75% of fans. Asumming the UK has 40,000,000 voters (?) a Gallop poll at the election would need to canvass 300,000 people to get the same sample size. I therefore think that there is validity in the sample size, albeit that it is weighted to the views of younger fans who are typically more likely to be on the internet.If I was SL or LL I would be taking this poll into consideration (although it wouldn't necessarily be a 'show stopper'). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHider Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 Why does'nt the poll mean anything ?Its a yes,no or don't know.The majority have voted no...simple as←They we're encouraged to vote no, thats bias. Anyhow, who's knows whats 'really' going to happen, i just wish Steve would make his decision as it's not good having all this uncertainity and negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest routabout Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 The people who are trying to discredit any poll on here, quite obviously have no idea of statistical analysis. Anything over 100, as the number of people involved in the result, can be used as a representation of the whole. With the number of people responding to the vote, then it is definitely indicative of the general opinion, from the whole.And those who are trying to belittle Rocky for starting the poll and bringing attention to it, well, I won't say as it will only start yet another battle royale.The stats do not lie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 The other way of looking at is, is that with 17% voting for for LL, it may make him the single most popular candidate of 20! ←The stats do not lie!←As many have been credited with saying "There are lies, damn lies and statistics".If we knew the shortlist a fairer poll would be to ask the fans which they preferred in a straight comparison. Because as City Exile rightly points out, it may be that he is the most popular candidate of the shortlist with 17% of the vote.He wouldn't get my vote but then, as Tompo says, it's not a popularity contest. I just want the successful candidate to get us out of this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest routabout Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 And it appears that the board want a manager who isn't going to cost them much and will stop us going down. It's all about the books, nothing to do with football, just making THEIR figures work for THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
City Exile Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 The people who are trying to discredit any poll on here, quite obviously have no idea of statistical analysis. Anything over 100, as the number of people involved in the result, can be used as a representation of the whole. With the number of people responding to the vote, then it is definitely indicative of the general opinion, from the whole.And those who are trying to belittle Rocky for starting the poll and bringing attention to it, well, I won't say as it will only start yet another battle royale.The stats do not lie!←I do think for somebody to put together a poll of this sort is entirely fair, and I am not knocking it.It is not right however to say that anything over 100 is representative however. It may be - if suffient work has gone in to defining the 'balance' of the sample. Equally, a sample of 500 may be not represetative, if it is made up of say all women between the ages of 55-65 who support the gas. This is where Gallop and others really make their money - understanding the demographics of in this case the City fan base, and ensuring the sample reflects that.In the absense of a lot of dosh, I think this survey can give an entirely fair headline, that given a simple choice of LL, yes or no, a clear majority would say no. I also suspect that any real potential manager (not fantasy) given a question like this would get a similiar response. It would be much better, if we could guess the shortlist, to say 'vote for your preference' as it then becomes a real choice. But then we do not know the shortlist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest routabout Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 I do think for somebody to put together a poll of this sort is entirely fair, and I am not knocking it.It is not right however to say that anything over 100 is representative however. It may be - if suffient work has gone in to defining the 'balance' of the sample. Equally, a sample of 500 may be not represetative, if it is made up of say all women between the ages of 55-65 who support the gas. This is where Gallop and others really make their money - understanding the demographics of in this case the City fan base, and ensuring the sample reflects that.In the absense of a lot of dosh, I think this survey can give an entirely fair headline, that given a simple choice of LL, yes or no, a clear majority would say no. I also suspect that any real potential manager (not fantasy) given a question like this would get a similiar response. It would be much better, if we could guess the shortlist, to say 'vote for your preference' as it then becomes a real choice. But then we do not know the shortlist!←But considering that it a safe bet that it is City fans voting, I'd say it is a fair representation. Also, have a look at the other polls for other manager names and none of them show such a bias AGAINST the named manager in that poll, as is shown in the Lawrence poll. So this is in fact, a pretty fair representation of the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milo Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 It would be much better, if we could guess the shortlist, to say 'vote for your preference' as it then becomes a real choice. But then we do not know the shortlist!←How about if we analyse the top five names listed in this thread here to work out who the fans think are the five most likely candidates and then a poll with the question "Who would you want as manager from the list". Post the link on the Citylist, subcider, supporters trust forum etc. Or perhaps Cheshire Red could run it on Rivals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Posted September 19, 2005 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 Still 83% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest routabout Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 How about if we analyse the top five names listed in this thread here to work out who the fans think are the five most likely candidates and then a poll with the question "Who would you want as manager from the list". Post the link on the Citylist, subcider, supporters trust forum etc. Or perhaps Cheshire Red could run it on Rivals?←I think for a better indication, the 'hot 5' should be chosen and voted for, as standard. But supplement this with a parallel survey, as opposed to an outright vote, where each of the five is given 5,4,3,2 or 1 point(s), according to each user's preference. 5 being most preferred manager, 1 for Lawrence. This would then give some indication of how happy or unhappy that fan would be, with an alternative to their first choice.Armed with those statistics, you would be able to make a very fair assessment of public opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest routabout Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 By the way, if anybody fancies my suggestion above, I'll happily program the necessary web based scripts, to carry the survey out.[Edit] But I won't host them on my server, although I'd happily supply them to somebody with the right facilities on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redphilc Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 Still 83% ←I have roughly 70 - 80 mates who watch city regulaly and each has different opinions on who should get the job however not one of them wants LL and nor do I.I have not to met anyone who does and I questioned everybody I met down the gate on saturday.This poll seems to echo the general opnions of the majority of city fans.Who are the other options......? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest redphilc Posted September 19, 2005 Report Share Posted September 19, 2005 Still 83% ←I have roughly 70 - 80 mates who watch city regulaly and each has different opinions on who should get the job however not one of them wants LL and nor do I.I have not to met anyone who does and I questioned everybody I met down the gate on saturday.This poll seems to echo the general opnions of the majority of city fans.Who are the other options......? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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