Confused?

[Port Said Red]

I went away to New York on Thursday with this board fairly positive. We were four points ahead of Forest with 6 to play.

I come back today to find we are 4 points clear with 4 to play, which in my eyes is a better position to be in and yet I find that we are apparently finished with no hope of making auto promotion?

Admittedly two wins would have pretty much made us promoted, but I am sure that the Forest fans will also be wondering how they didn't capitalise as well and are resigned to the play offs.

I guess it's because we didn't win a game? I venture that if we had one both our games and Forest had won both theirs this board would still pretty buoyant despite the fact that we would be in exactly the same position.

Interesting as well that many believe Scunny to be uncatchable and yet Blackpool who have a similar gap to make up on us are a threat to our position.

I am not being positive for the sake of it here, my philosophy from the start of the season has been to look at it long term. Picking out individual results and applying that form to the rest of the season will drive you mad if you let it.

[BristolCity1992]

I agree with the first bit of your post.

Yeah ok we have not scored etc.

However forest have not even gained on us and I look at it like this.

"We were four points ahead of Forest with 6 games left with 6 games left. We are now 4 points ahead with 4 games left."

At the end of the day if we would have won both games and they would have won both games then we would still be in the same place but a bit more happy.

Lets just take every game as it comes, I am not a happy clapper as some would say but I do belive.

[WTFiGO!?!]

I guess it's because we didn't win a game?

I think you got that pretty much spot on.

Also, I came away dissapointed understandably with the result but not wholeheartedly dispondent at the display - concluding that it just wasn't our day, to arrive home and find the players were virtually being hung, drawn and quartered.

Human nature and particularly City/Football fan-nature does perplex me, man.

I think the intense anxiety of it all just overwhelmes some. (I do admit to losing it after the R*vers defeat).

Stay calm and keep rational is my message.

5-7 points and I think we'll be there, 3 is the lowest estimation I've heard.

It doesn't help having one or two clinically depressed cases casting their opinions about, brandishing themselves as realist's and anyone who challanges them as happy-clappers I must admit.

[no_merde]

I went away to New York on Thursday with this board fairly positive. We were four points ahead of Forest with 6 to play.

I come back today to find we are 4 points clear with 4 to play, which in my eyes is a better position to be in and yet I find that we are apparently finished with no hope of making auto promotion?

Admittedly two wins would have pretty much made us promoted, but I am sure that the Forest fans will also be wondering how they didn't capitalise as well and are resigned to the play offs.

I guess it's because we didn't win a game? I venture that if we had one both our games and Forest had won both theirs this board would still pretty buoyant despite the fact that we would be in exactly the same position.

Interesting as well that many believe Scunny to be uncatchable and yet Blackpool who have a similar gap to make up on us are a threat to our position.

I am not being positive for the sake of it here, my philosophy from the start of the season has been to look at it long term. Picking out individual results and applying that form to the rest of the season will drive you mad if you let it.

Most sensible post on the board in ages - follow this 'un's approach: Hold ye nerve

[cider11]

I went away to New York on Thursday with this board fairly positive. We were four points ahead of Forest with 6 to play.

I come back today to find we are 4 points clear with 4 to play, which in my eyes is a better position to be in and yet I find that we are apparently finished with no hope of making auto promotion?

Admittedly two wins would have pretty much made us promoted, but I am sure that the Forest fans will also be wondering how they didn't capitalise as well and are resigned to the play offs.

I guess it's because we didn't win a game? I venture that if we had one both our games and Forest had won both theirs this board would still pretty buoyant despite the fact that we would be in exactly the same position.

Interesting as well that many believe Scunny to be uncatchable and yet Blackpool who have a similar gap to make up on us are a threat to our position.

I am not being positive for the sake of it here, my philosophy from the start of the season has been to look at it long term. Picking out individual results and applying that form to the rest of the season will drive you mad if you let it.

Thats because blackpool have been on blistering form and over last few weeks gone from well outside play offs to being just 5 points behind us, whereas us chasing scunny is different that we have slowed up the points scoring last 3 games.

[BristolCity1992]

Blackpool have been in the play offs for a while but I know what your saying.

[Socrates]

I think the intense anxiety of it all just overwhelmes some.

I think that's probably the line that best sums up this message board over the last week.

I'm also suffering from that "intense anxiety" that you mention and it's killing me! Just wish we could clinch 2nd place as quickly as possible. What I'd give for us to be up right now!

That being said, rather than panicking, I do still believe we'll finish second and go up.

[Bristol Boy]

This issue is caused by anxiety over poor performances particularly our lack of goals.Anyone who doesn't go to all the games and just looks at the results would feel more confident.

In truth, I've had some doubts all season and have said as much on many occassions.

Injuries to key players in Brooker (All Season) Noble, Murray & McAllister now, have hightened those concerns. as has the dip in our home results.Once again, in all honesty, the performance level, as opposed to results, home & away, has been hit or miss for a while.

Our lack of a prolific goal scorer-Jevons has 11 inc 4 pens in 38 outings, is what has stopped us racing clear of the pack.

Not making a major signing in Jan or on loan before the deadline, has added further doubt and Andy Smith's record of 0 Goals in 72 Appearances, doesn't exactly inspire confidence.......and I think he should start Saturday!!

Would I have settled for where we are at the start of the season?

Absolutely.

Do I think that any other team in the top six is far better than us?

No.

However, neither would I have settled for one point from games against Swansea & Gillingham and no goals, so it cuts both ways and that's the only realistic way to look at it from close up.

[Nibor]

Yes we're technically better off.

The pessimism is easy to understand though.

Quite simply, if we have similar results in the next 4 games to the results in the last 4 games, we won't go up.

Recent performances have completely lacked any cutting edge, making it hard to see how we are to get the two or three wins we will most likely need.

Enoch, Betsy and Jevons have been absymal, atrocious and anonymous respectively and there's only so long you can scrape goals from defenders and set pieces. Our run in is tougher than Forest's.

If we hold on to second place it will likely be down to sheer bloodymindedness from players like Carey, Keogh and Orr, unless there are some dramatic changes in individual performances.

Right now I'd say it's 50/50.

[giles_23_bcfc]

Quite simply, if we have similar results in the next 4 games to the results in the last 4 games, we won't go up.

You mean 1 defeat in 4? Picking up 5 points along the way which would 99% gurantee us promotion? Id sure as hell take that!

[pdgifford64]

You mean 1 defeat in 4? Picking up 5 points along the way which would 99% gurantee us promotion? Id sure as hell take that!

5 points enough ? Would be great if it was but i`m not convinced. We need at least 2 wins IMO, 6 points is the minimum requirement.

PDG

[giles_23_bcfc]

5 points enough ? Would be great if it was but i`m not convinced. We need at least 2 wins IMO, 6 points is the minimum requirement.

PDG

Well, if, as has been stated, s****horpe, us, forest and blackpool have the same results in our next/last 4 games, as the previous 4 games, the final table would be like this:

1: SCUNNY 89 PTS

2: CITY 81 PTS

3: blackpool 80 PTS

4: forest 77 PTS.

Therefore, we go up.

[Nibor]

You mean 1 defeat in 4? Picking up 5 points along the way which would 99% gurantee us promotion? Id sure as hell take that!

I mean one win in four scoring only two goals, one from a defender and one off a striker who knew nothing about it.

5 points would not 99% guarantee us promotion, the chances are fairly good that Forest will win 3 of their comparatively easy remaining games.

[giles_23_bcfc]

I mean one win in four scoring only two goals, one from a defender and one off a striker who knew nothing about it.

5 points would not 99% guarantee us promotion, the chances are fairly good that Forest will win 3 of their comparatively easy remaining games.

Look above, is relation to your comment about the next 4 games tbeing the same as the last.

[Nibor]

Well, if, as has been stated,

That wasn't what was stated though. I said if we get similar results.

Forest will have to try hard not to get 3 wins playing the likes of Brentford, Leyton Orient, Bournemouth and Crewe - three of those sides already have nothing to play for and Orient might well do by the time Forest face them.

[pdgifford64]

Well, if, as has been stated, s****horpe, us, forest and blackpool have the same results in our next/last 4 games, as the previous 4 games, the final table would be like this:

1: SCUNNY 89 PTS

2: CITY 81 PTS

3: blackpool 80 PTS

4: forest 77 PTS.

Therefore, we go up.

I can`t predict what other teams will do, Scunny are up, as good as, Forest have had mini blips all season but have bounced back, thing is they have the goals in them they just need to stop conceding, Blackpool have come up on the inside rail and pose a serious threat to both our auto hopes.

I hope we can sort out this goal scoring conundrum and do whats neccesary to go up in 2nd and while i`m fairly confident that the 4 and 5 point gap respectively is comfortable my beloved football club are, once again, doing there level best to make my waking hours, there are now too few sleeping ones, a living hell.

PDG

[CiderJar]

I can`t predict what other teams will do, Scunny are up, as good as, Forest have had mini blips all season but have bounced back, thing is they have the goals in them they just need to stop conceding, Blackpool have come up on the inside rail and pose a serious threat to both our auto hopes.

I hope we can sort out this goal scoring conundrum and do whats neccesary to go up in 2nd and while i`m fairly confident that the 4 and 5 point gap respectively is comfortable my beloved football club are, once again, doing there level best to make my waking hours, there are now too few sleeping ones, a living hell.

PDG

The positive thing about this is that Blackpool still have to play S****horpe at home and Swansea away. Forest have an "easy" run in but struggle, in the same way we do, to polish off "lesser" teams - they dropped two points at home to both Gillingham and Rotherham, lost at home to Leyton Orient who they still have to play away. They may have once had the goals in them but are struggling to score at the moment. 80 points could still be enough.

[giles_23_bcfc]

The positive thing about this is that Blackpool still have to play S****horpe at home and Swansea away. Forest have an "easy" run in but struggle, in the same way we do, to polish off "lesser" teams - they dropped two points at home to both Gillingham and Rotherham, lost at home to Leyton Orient who they still have to play away. They may have once had the goals in them but are struggling to score at the moment. 80 points could still be enough.

We seem to do better away from home for some reason. So i think we can and will pick up 4 points from Carlisle and Millwall, with a win against Rotherham at home looking very likely (although forest probably said that!). So that's the 5 points i said. That just leaves Yeovil at home on saturday. Which i think we can and will win. So 8 points from 12. Finish on 84. Even IF blackpool win there last 4, they cant catch us.

So, for the record, my prediction:

Yeovil - Win

Carlisle - Win

Millwall - Draw

Rotherham - Win

[andy g]

We all know what they say about statistics - so lets stop getting bogged down with all this talk of "5 points from four games"

The reason everyone is getting nervous at the moment isnt because we're negative, overly pessimistic or "insanely nervous" (or whatever the phrase was)

Its because the results over the last few games (and the performances) havent been sub-standard for a team looking for promotion. So far we've been lucky because Forest have also had the jitters and the others are too far behind to catch us, but there is absolutely no guarantee that they'll keep losing. If Blackpool and Forest win their next four (and thats certainly not impossible) all this talk of "5 points" being enough is going to look a bit stupid.

Yes, we're in a good position at the moment - no one is disputing that. But we cant complacently rely on other teams doing us a favour.

Its in our hands at the moment - lets keep it that way.

[giles_23_bcfc]

We all know what they say about statistics - so lets stop getting bogged down with all this talk of "5 points from four games"

The reason everyone is getting nervous at the moment isnt because we're negative, overly pessimistic or "insanely nervous" (or whatever the phrase was)

Its because the results over the last few games (and the performances) havent been sub-standard for a team looking for promotion. So far we've been lucky because Forest have also had the jitters and the others are too far behind to catch us, but there is absolutely no guarantee that they'll keep losing. If Blackpool and Forest win their next four (and thats certainly not impossible) all this talk of "5 points" being enough is going to look a bit stupid.

Yes, we're in a good position at the moment - no one is disputing that. But we cant complacently rely on other teams doing us a favour.

Its in our hands at the moment - lets keep it that way.

To be honest I'm still quite confident we have what it takes to finish 2nd. And I'm confident that GJ wont let the players slip up as much as to let forest gain an extra 5 points on us in 4 games.

[Nibor]

To be honest I'm still quite confident we have what it takes to finish 2nd. And I'm confident that GJ wont let the players slip up as much as to let forest gain an extra 5 points on us in 4 games.

After watching the last few games, where can you honestly see 3 goals in the next four games coming from?

[giles_23_bcfc]

After watching the last few games, where can you honestly see 3 goals in the next four games coming from?

Just because weve not played the best and scored goals for fun in previous games, doesnt mean we cant now. Every game is different and its how we play on the day.

But, if you want an answer, then here goes:

Andy Smith: Laugh as you may, but hes getting closer and was desperatly unlucky against Swansea when he hit the bar.

Jevo: All strikers go through baron spells so its about time he ended his.

Enoch: The last striker to score for us. Could easily be the next.

McCombe: A great asset in the air from set-pieces

Lee Johnson: Can hit one hell of a shot. Can also pop up in the box

Want me to go on or what?

[Gaffer]

I can`t predict what other teams will do, Scunny are up, as good as, Forest have had mini blips all season but have bounced back, thing is they have the goals in them they just need to stop conceding, Blackpool have come up on the inside rail and pose a serious threat to both our auto hopes.

I hope we can sort out this goal scoring conundrum and do whats neccesary to go up in 2nd and while i`m fairly confident that the 4 and 5 point gap respectively is comfortable my beloved football club are, once again, doing there level best to make my waking hours, there are now too few sleeping ones, a living hell.

PDG

Fella's let's get some perspective here. We seem to be overlooking the facts, so that whatever arguement is being put forward fits.

Forest have scored the same amount of goals as us this year, and won 2 games less. Yet for some reason we're assuming they are some free scoring team who will win their last 4 games, whilst we couldn't hit the proverbial with a banjo! We have a great chance this weekend to beat a team who have struggled against all the top teams this year, losing away at S****horpe, Forest and Oldham to name a few. Forest can only get 12 more points, if we get 7 we guarantee promotion. Win both home games, scrape a nil nil draw and it's in the bag.

We should have nicked a draw at Gills, but for some poor finising in the last 20 mins we would have done. Don't forget they have an exceptional home record.

Stay calm, get behind them this weekend, i forcast a 2-0 win and the promotion party is back on!!

[WTFiGO!?!]

Just because weve not played the best and scored goals for fun in previous games, doesnt mean we cant now. Every game is different and its how we play on the day.

But, if you want an answer, then here goes:

Andy Smith: Laugh as you may, but hes getting closer and was desperatly unlucky against Swansea when he hit the bar.

Jevo: All strikers go through baron spells so its about time he ended his.

Enoch: The last striker to score for us. Could easily be the next.

McCombe: A great asset in the air from set-pieces

Lee Johnson: Can hit one hell of a shot. Can also pop up in the box

Want me to go on or what?

I think people are getting too hung up by this 1 goal in 3 games statistic. Ok, we've not been scoring for fun all season but to say one can't see where the next goal is coming from is beyond me.

Enoch on another day would have had two verses Gillingham, likewise Smith may have had two against Swansea - clipping the bar and Enoch's non-pass. etc etc.

Luckilly Yeovil, Carlisle, Millwall and Rotherham are all other days than swansea and Gillingham.

(paraphrase): ''You can't rely on set pieces, lucky ricochet's and scraping out 1-0 wins all season'', well bloody Wigan managed it!

People are panicking.

I targetted who I view to be one of the biggest doubters for a little bet on auto-promotion and he didn't want to know.

[giles_23_bcfc]

I think people are getting too hung up by this 1 goal in 3 games statistic. Ok, we've not been scoring for fun all season but to say one can't see where the next goal is coming from is beyond me.

Enoch on another day would have had two verses Gillingham, likewise Smith may have had two against Swansea - clipping the bar and Enoch's non-pass. etc etc.

Luckilly Yeovil, Carlisle, Millwall and Rotherham are all other days than swansea and Gillingham.

(paraphrase): ''You can't rely on set pieces, lucky ricochet's and scraping out 1-0 wins all season'', well bloody Wigan managed it!

People are panicking.

I targetted who I view to be one of the biggest doubters for a little bet on auto-promotion and he didn't want to know.

So is that the long way round saying that you agree with what i said?

Who would this doubter be? Care to name and shame?

[WTFiGO!?!]

So is that the long way round saying that you agree with what i said?

Who would this doubter be? Care to name and shame?

err, pretty much I think. Always good to have a point banged home though. I think I just got into one of my:''yeah, yeah, yeah - you know, bruv'' modes (call it enthusiastic agreement) and just had to join in the party.

No names re:Thomas, he's about though .

The point was, he was so confidently predicting the worse - just out of habbit I think tbf, but when push came to shuff he wouldn't put anything on the line for it.

My point is: In the cold light of day, once passionate fans rationalise their thoughts I think they will find we are in with a damn good chance of promotion.

I've had a statistition mate (COUGHgimpCOUGH) have a little analysis looking at prespective form, run in's, probabilities etc. He reckons we're in with an 83% chance of success. I know that's Maths and not Football but hey....... it was encouraging.

[giles_23_bcfc]

err, pretty much I think. Always good to have a point banged home though. I think I just got into one of my:''yeah, yeah, yeah - you know, bruv'' modes (call it enthusiastic agreement) and just had to join in the party.

No names re:Thomas, he's about though .

The point was, he was so confidently predicting the worse - just out of habbit I think tbf, but when push came to shuff he wouldn't put anything on the line for it.

My point is: In the cold light of day, once passionate fans rationalise their thoughts I think they will find we are in with a damn good chance of promotion.

I've had a statistition mate (COUGHgimpCOUGH) have a little analysis looking at prespective form, run in's, probabilities etc. He reckons we're in with an 83% chance of success. I know that's Maths and not Football but hey....... it was encouraging.

Again, the roundabout way of answering :tounge: Well, i don't care what percentage it is. All i care about is, after 46 games, there is only 1 team maximum above us is the league, with that team being the champions elect, s****horpe!

[Ian M]

I think people are getting too hung up by this 1 goal in 3 games statistic. Ok, we've not been scoring for fun all season but to say one can't see where the next goal is coming from is beyond me.

Absolutely spot on.

Let's look back to the last time we only scored 1 goal in 3 league games.

City 0-1 Cheltenham

Scunthorpe 1-0 City

City 1-1 Huddersfield

Our record in the following four league games?

W4 D0 L0 F7 A1 Pts 12

I'll take that thank you very much.

[BristolCity1992]

Just out of interest do you know who scored the goals in that time? Its not a dig just curious. I agree on the whole I am not reaching for the panic button yet, lets just take it one game at a time as it stands we are better off than we were two weeks ago that makes me happy.

[downendcity]

Absolutely spot on.

Let's look back to the last time we only scored 1 goal in 3 league games.

City 0-1 Cheltenham

S****horpe 1-0 City

City 1-1 Huddersfield

Our record in the following four league games?

W4 D0 L0 F7 A1 Pts 12

I'll take that thank you very much.

And on that note, I suggest we close the forum until the end of April, when I get back from my golf trip to discover we are playing championship footy next season!