Lest We Get Carried Away

[cheese]

After 15 games last season Luton had 22 points - 5 less than us and we know what happened to them!!

[BITW]

After 15 games last season Luton had 22 points - 5 less than us and we know what happened to them!!

I see what your saying but i cant help but feel this post wouldnt be here if it wasnt for only our second defeat in 15 games. Lets just enjoy the season and who knows what might happen.

[samo]

After 15 games last season Luton had 22 points - 5 less than us and we know what happened to them!!

But... they had five points less than us, were in a totally different situation than us and in a very different division than us; so why say that?

[greenun]

But... they had five points less than us, were in a totally different situation than us and in a very different division than us; so why say that?

When you sell your best players and replace them with also-rans you're always in danger of dropping like a stone.

Players out

Player***********To***********Fee***********Date

Steve Howard*****Derby********£ 1000000*****22-07-2006

Kevin Nicholls*****Leeds********£ 750000******26-07-2006

Carlos Edwards*** Sunderland****£ 1400000*****02-01-2007

Rowan Vine*******Birmingham***£ 2500000*****11-01-2007

Warren Feeney****Cardi######***Free**********15-06-2007

Danny Stevens****Torquay******Free**********30-06-2007

Russell Perrett*****Bournemouth**Free*********04-07-2007

Michael Leary******Barnet*******Free**********05-07-2007

Total: £ 5650000

[samo]

When you sell your best players and replace them with also-rans you're always in danger of dropping like a stone.

See: http://www.soccerbase.com/transfers_by_team.sd?teamid=1628

Exactly my point; we've done nothing of the sort. Thus the comparison is a bit false.

[cheese]

But... they had five points less than us, were in a totally different situation than us and in a very different division than us; so why say that?

Umm, they're in a different division to us because they were relegated - exactly my point. Let me make it simpler. This time last season, Championship Club Luton had 22 points after 15 games. They were relegated.

[cheese]

When you sell your best players and replace them with also-rans you're always in danger of dropping like a stone.

Players out

Player***********To***********Fee***********Date

Steve Howard*****Derby********£ 1000000*****22-07-2006

Kevin Nicholls*****Leeds********£ 750000******26-07-2006

Carlos Edwards*** Sunderland****£ 1400000*****02-01-2007

Rowan Vine*******Birmingham***£ 2500000*****11-01-2007

Warren Feeney****Cardi######***Free**********15-06-2007

Danny Stevens****Torquay******Free**********30-06-2007

Russell Perrett*****Bournemouth**Free*********04-07-2007

Michael Leary******Barnet*******Free**********05-07-2007

Total: £ 5650000

The sale of Howard and Nichills was before the league started - the sales of Feeney, Stevens, Perrett and Leary were after the league finished so they don't count. So, what you're saying is the sale of two players was their downfall - edwards and Vine. So, what shall we do if Basso and say Elliott go this January.

[Show Me The Money!]

I maybe wrong here but wasn't that good start by Luton the season before last, not the season they got relegated in.

And as has been mentioned I think the wheels fell off for them last season when they sold some of their best players and also Newell started to go a bit vocal in the press with remarks about female officials and transfer corruption.

[Hillbilly]

After 15 games last season Luton had 22 points - 5 less than us and we know what happened to them!!

And after 23 games (half way) they only had 26 points and were placed 18th in the league table. So in the next 8 games we have to lose them all and somehow drop a point to be in a similar situation. If this happens then I guess you could say we are likely relegation candidates. I personally don't see it happening.

Also, in the first half of the season, Luton won 7 games (same as us at the moment) and only 3 in the second half. They only managed 10 wins all season. I'd like to think will have at least 10 wins under our belt by 23 games played.

Luton's situation last season is vastly different to ours this season.

But who knows you might be right.

[bucksred]

The sale of Howard and Nichills was before the league started - the sales of Feeney, Stevens, Perrett and Leary were after the league finished so they don't count. So, what you're saying is the sale of two players was their downfall - edwards and Vine. So, what shall we do if Basso and say Elliott go this January.

Greenun is spot on in his assessment. Lu'on fans feel exactly the same, particularly when the money in wasn't invested in new players. Its quite conceivable some of our best players move in January, specially if their pond life agents stir the shit a tad

[Alex_BCFC]

We are more likely to strengthen than sell in the transfer window IMO unlike them.

[bucksred]

We are more likely to strengthen than sell in the transfer window IMO unlike them.

We have a few players the bigger sides may well take an interest in. Can a club like us turn that kind of money down? specially with grasping agents? I aint so sure.

GJ will definitly look at getting better players, but if we lose a couple of good ones like Lu'on did...Lu'ons players moved on the strength of the two promotions and one good season in the championship... few have made a significant impact, unlike a couple of ours who, IMHO could do.

[samo]

Umm, they're in a different division to us because they were relegated - exactly my point. Let me make it simpler. This time last season, Championship Club Luton had 22 points after 15 games. They were relegated.

Umm, by saying "in a very different division" I was refering to the fact that of the 15 games we have played up to now 4 of those teams (so, nearly one third) we're not actually in the Championship last year (Blackpool, Scunny, Chalton & Sheffield U) and Luton at the same stage last season had played 7 teams we had yet to face or won't face because they were relegated or promoted. As I said, "a very different division".

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but trying to say that a team with few similarities to ours, with a different points total to us, after playing opposition different to that which we have played and who had a different set of upcomig fixtures to us is in anyway a valid comparision is, quite frankly, false.

If you want to get into all that then I can say that at this point last season Birmingham had exactly the same points as we do, but we actually have a better goal difference than they did (we've scored 1 more goal and conceded 1 less) and we are less points from second place (where they finished). At least my comparision matches on at least one criteria (that being the points).

[cheese]

Umm, by saying "in a very different division" I was refering to the fact that of the 15 games we have played up to now 4 of those teams (so, nearly one third) we're not actually in the Championship last year (Blackpool, Scunny, Chalton & Sheffield U) and Luton at the same stage last season had played 7 teams we had yet to face or won't face because they were relegated or promoted. As I said, "a very different division".

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but trying to say that a team with few similarities to ours, with a different points total to us, after playing opposition different to that which we have played and who had a different set of upcomig fixtures to us is in anyway a valid comparision is, quite frankly, false.

If you want to get into all that then I can say that at this point last season Birmingham had exactly the same points as we do, but we actually have a better goal difference than they did (we've scored 1 more goal and conceded 1 less) and we are less points from second place (where they finished). At least my comparision matches on at least one criteria (that being the points).

Your logic is so far wrong to be laughable. You're almost saying that any comparison to previous seasons would be invalid unless we had played exactly the same teams under exactly the same conditions with exactly the same players and managers. Look, I'll try and make it simpler for you, we only have 5 more points than luton did at the same stage last season - and they got relegated. So caution is advisable when reading the league table at such an early stage because a bad run of results or the loss of key players can have a dramatic effect.

And fwiw, Luton were 9 points adrift of safety.

[samo]

Your logic is so far wrong to be laughable. You're almost saying that any comparison to previous seasons would be invalid unless we had played exactly the same teams under exactly the same conditions with exactly the same players and managers. Look, I'll try and make it simpler for you, we only have 5 more points than luton did at the same stage last season - and they got relegated. So caution is advisable when reading the league table at such an early stage because a bad run of results or the loss of key players can have a dramatic effect.

And fwiw, Luton were 9 points adrift of safety.

"Laughable"? Behave.

Tell me how we are in anyway similar to Luton Town last year (besides NOT having the same points total they had after the same amount of games, thanks) and then I'll start to see your argument. The division was very different, what's wrong with pointing that out? Or the fact that Luton last year were nothing like us this year?

Of course "caution is advisable", but using a bad comparision isn't going to help, is it?

[Robbored]

Look, I'll try and make it simpler for you, we only have 5 more points than luton did at the same stage last season - and they got relegated. So caution is advisable when reading the league table at such an early stage because a bad run of results or the loss of key players can have a dramatic effect.

And fwiw, Luton were 9 points adrift of safety.

Its a good point and one that I made when I asked what would happen if Carey/Elliot were both out at the same time. I also think that most of us City fans are all feling very positive about this season now that we have made such a good start and a bit realism has gone awol.

But.....50 points is the magic number and City are still 23 points away from that total. Another 7 wins and 2 draws from the remaining 31 games will secure CCC football for next season. In other words City could 'afford' to lose something like another 20 odd games.......and I can't see that happening.

[cheese]

"Laughable"? Behave.

Tell me how we are in anyway similar to Luton Town last year (besides NOT having the same points total they had after the same amount of games, thanks) and then I'll start to see your argument. The division was very different, what's wrong with pointing that out? Or the fact that Luton last year were nothing like us this year?

Of course "caution is advisable", but using a bad comparision isn't going to help, is it?

The point being, which you so obviously miss, is that 27 points from the first 15 games neither guarantees safety nor preludes promotion. It matters not whether the comparison is made with Luton, Altrincham or Chelsea.

[samo]

The point being, which you so obviously miss, is that 27 points from the first 15 games neither guarantees safety nor preludes promotion. It matters not whether the comparison is made with Luton, Altrincham or Chelsea.

Whatever mate.

I never said 27 points guarantees saftey or promotionm I just thought the comparision with Luton was bit odd. I didn't "obviously miss" your point, oh great one; I just thought it was a rubbish one to make.

They were in a totally different situation than us in terms of finance, playing staff, form and more or less everything else. They had 5 points less than we do at present and had lost 3 more of their games, a whole third of the 15 matches we both had played. I think you're just one of these people who like to get their "I told you so" in before anyone else, so if we do slip a bit (which is perfectly possible, no one said it's not) then you can act as if you were the voice of reason, when really all you were doing was being hyper-negative, and using bad comparisons to back it up.

If you want to justify your point of view with comparisions you'd be better looking at stuff which actually matches up, example; we had 26 points after 15 games last year and both avoided relegation (in a division with more relegation places) and got promoted. The same apples to Birmingham who had the same points total as us ut in this division.

Stop having such a chip on you shoulder. Your comparision was rubbish and you got called on it. Get over it.

[cheese]

Whatever mate.

I never said 27 points guarantees saftey or promotionm I just thought the comparision with Luton was bit odd. I didn't "obviously miss" your point, oh great one; I just thought it was a rubbish one to make.

They were in a totally different situation than us in terms of finance, playing staff, form and more or less everything else. They had 5 points less than we do at present and had lost 3 more of their games, a whole third of the 15 matches we both had played. I think you're just one of these people who like to get their "I told you so" in before anyone else, so if we do slip a bit (which is perfectly possible, no one said it's not) then you can act as if you were the voice of reason, when really all you were doing was being hyper-negative, and using bad comparisons to back it up.

If you want to justify your point of view with comparisions you'd be better looking at stuff which actually matches up, example; we had 26 points after 15 games last year and both avoided relegation (in a division with more relegation places) and got promoted. The same apples to Birmingham who had the same points total as us ut in this division.

Stop having such a chip on you shoulder. Your comparision was rubbish and you got called on it. Get over it.

You really are dense. On the one hand you say that comparisons with Luton are invalid but at the same time compare us to Birmingham whose resources were far in excess of ours. You also want to compare our position now with our position last season when we were in a different league, with different opposition - that's ok for you but not for me according to an earlier post of yours.

Read this slowly - I am not saying we are like Luton what I'm saying is that Luton were doing reasonably well after 15 games - they got relegated and missed safety by 9 points. If it happened to them, it can happen to anyone. I don't think it's likely. We have the same points as Birmingham did at the same stage - they got promoted automatically - I also don't think it's likely we'll do the same. But it happened to them, it can happen to anyone.

If we do get relegated - I will not be here saying I told you so - cos I'm not telling you we'll be relegated (something you don't appear to have grasped) but merely urging caution to those that think it's impossible that we will.

[054123]

What an odd post and thread.

I have no idea what any of the stats or comparissons prove.

How can a comparrison to Luton be given credance, yet a a comparision to Birmingham is 'Laughable'.

Take it outside boys, this battle of the nerds is way to much for my simple noggin.

[cheese]

this battle of the nerds is way to much for my simple noggin.

Then why bother responding?

[havanatopia]

The point being, which you so obviously miss, is that 27 points from the first 15 games neither guarantees safety nor preludes promotion. It matters not whether the comparison is made with Luton, Altrincham or Chelsea.

Something or someone really got your gander up today before you came on here?

If the comparison matters not then why make any comparison at all?... I assume that last sentence was tongue in cheek and if not we can compare any team with any other and draw some sort of weird conclusion from it. It would make for stats resembling spaghetti junction.

As far as Luton are concerned I think one point not really touched on is that they had been in the Championship for a couple of seasons [if i am not wrong] and that feel good factor of promotion had all but evaporated, Newell had been denied funds to strengthen and he had largely lost interest as a result. I think it was an entirely predictable relegation.

In our case, we are still very much on the high of promotion, have a fantastic team spirit and a great manager and a stable, astute board of directors. Perhaps we should be making comparisons with no other team in any other division because i cannot think of one team right now who has all of that.

Relegation?... don't be soft.

[cheese]

Something or someone really got your gander up today before you came on here?

If the comparison matters not then why make any comparison at all?... I assume that last sentence was tongue in cheek and if not we can compare any team with any other and draw some sort of weird conclusion from it. It would make for stats resembling spaghetti junction.

As far as Luton are concerned I think one point not really touched on is that they had been in the Championship for a couple of seasons [if i am not wrong] and that feel good factor of promotion had all but evaporated, Newell had been denied funds to strengthen and he had largely lost interest as a result. I think it was an entirely predictable relegation.

In our case, we are still very much on the high of promotion, have a fantastic team spirit and a great manager and a stable, astute board of directors. Perhaps we should be making comparisons with no other team in any other division because i cannot think of one team right now who has all of that.

Relegation?... don't be soft.

Sigh........ Last season, there was a team in the championship that got off to a reasonably good start having 22 points from the first 15 games. They were relegated at the end of the season being 9 points from safety. S**t happens - things can go wrong. I hope that the Cuban rum and cigars haven't addled you enough for you not to see that. I never said we would be relegated - I even said I don't think it will happen - all I'm saying is that it has happened before and will happen again - to someone!

[havanatopia]

Sigh........ Last season, there was a team in the championship that got off to a reasonably good start having 22 points from the first 15 games. They were relegated at the end of the season being 9 points from safety. S**t happens - things can go wrong. I hope that the Cuban rum and cigars haven't addled you enough for you not to see that. I never said we would be relegated - I even said I don't think it will happen - all I'm saying is that it has happened before and will happen again - to someone!

You seem quite good at insults largely for the sake of it or because you cannot be arsed to read a post in full; choosing to remark on a part of it only.. so here's a bounce back for you since you seem to enjoy it so much.. are you dyslexic or something?.. it certainly looks like it

[054123]

Then why bother responding?

To let you know that your super brains are probabaly passing the majority of us by!

Keep on postin' cheese! You're one cool dude!

[cheese]

You seem quite good at insults largely for the sake of it or because you cannot be arsed to read a post in full; choosing to remark on a part of it only.. so here's a bounce back for you since you seem to enjoy it so much.. are you dyslexic or something?.. it certainly looks like it

On

[Guest Tafkar]

So caution is advisable when reading the league table at such an early stage because a bad run of results or the loss of key players can have a dramatic effect.

Nice to see you now bringing into the equation the loss of key players. In the last 3 seasons, we've sold about £3.5 Million worth of players, and this season alone spent £2 Million. Luton acquired all their 2007/8 signings on free transfers, and after obtaining over £5.5 Million in transfer fees in under 6 months, they spent the grand sum of £1.2 Million on signings in the whole season. I hate using the term "big club", but I'd be surprised to see Ivan Sproule or Lee Trundle signing for Luton had they just been promoted from League 1 after 8 years in the division. In their debut Championship season, the money they spent was on Rowan Vine, the princely sum of £250,000. Steve Lansdown and Gary Johnson know what they have to do, if we lose players then we have the financial muscle, transfer nouse and pulling power behind us (Jamie McCombe and Liam Fontaine to Crewe, anyone remember?) to compensate.

And as for a poor run of results... We lost 7 league games in a row, if you remember, not too long back. We still finished 9th in that division. We've proved that we can cut it with the best in The Championship, we have the ability, so it's hardly a case of a honeymoon period turning into freefall. There are cases to suppoirt both sides, one isolated case proves nothing.

[cheese]

Sunday 29th October 2006:

Ipswich 5 v 0 Luton Town

[samo]

I think you're just one of these people who like to get their "I told you so" in before anyone else, so if we do slip a bit (which is perfectly possible, no one said it's not) then you can act as if you were the voice of reason, when really all you were doing was being hyper-negative, and using bad comparisons to back it up.

Sunday 29th October 2006:

Ipswich 5 v 0 Luton Town

If the lottery was as predictable as you we'd all be millionaires.

[cheese]

If the lottery was as predictable as you we'd all be millionaires.

But the lottery has 49 different numbered balls so why say that?