edson Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Win tonight and we'll be on 57 points with 14 games left.In other words, 1 point per game (which is generally seen as relegation form) after a win tonight would be enough to get us to 71 points. With just 74 or so being enough for a play-off place, as a rule, you can see just how tantalisingly close the play offs are, even if we do have a fairly major blip.Looking back through GJ's reign, even taking into account the 9 game losing run (2 of them were cup games), we took 15 points from any group of 14 games you choose that incorporate that losing streak. I think any repeat of that is highly unlikely with GJ's squad now settled and his own choice.Basically, win tonight and we need around 17 points from 14 games to secure a play off place. I think this underlines that the games are starting to run out for the chasing pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesM Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 It's a good point, well made.What's even more exciting is the fact that, if you look the other way, going up the table, even at this stage we have to be taken seriously.I'm not suggesting we are going up automatically, but we are in the mix and it's amazing.I expect clubs like West Brom and Watford, with their recent prem experience and squad quality, to kick on now. Couple that with the form of Stoke and Palace and what on paper looks a stiff run in for us, means it's going to be one hell of a finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordofthebling Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 I was literally just running through the maths, when looking at the table on the BBC website!We are very close, fingers crossed! A win tonight would be huge. Ei i Ei i Ei i oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedM Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Just want to add that if we actually don't win tonight, or worse still L**eWe will fight another day! Or light another day for those with candles!!!It's pretty scarry though, can we dare to believe now? Mind you I said that at the start of this season and we haven't done too bad!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheshire_red Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 What A Win Tonight Would Mean, my first win watching City this season, hmmm best stop at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfastcityfan Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 I am confident we can sneak a win tonight. It's a good game to improve on our recent poor away formI fancy Carle to grab his first for the club tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC_Dan Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 What A Win Tonight Would Mean, my first win watching City this season, hmmm best stop at home.You're faced with the same dilemma as me then. Our good form recently has definitely coincided with me staying away.I'm going to work on the assumption that it's superstitious nonsense and go along to give my support. I don't have any candles, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swindlered Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Win tonight and we'll be on 57 points with 14 games left.In other words, 1 point per game (which is generally seen as relegation form) after a win tonight would be enough to get us to 71 points. With just 74 or so being enough for a play-off place, as a rule, you can see just how tantalisingly close the play offs are, even if we do have a fairly major blip.Looking back through GJ's reign, even taking into account the 9 game losing run (2 of them were cup games), we took 15 points from any group of 14 games you choose that incorporate that losing streak. I think any repeat of that is highly unlikely with GJ's squad now settled and his own choice.Basically, win tonight and we need around 17 points from 14 games to secure a play off place. I think this underlines that the games are starting to run out for the chasing pack.Interestingly a lot of clubs could gate-crash the play-offs but I expect the two promotion spots to go to those currently in the top five. Whilst you'd expect Watford & West Brom to kick on they haven't set the league alight and losing King is a big blow to Watford. Also within West Brom there must be a certain amount of anxiety that the team will be picked apart if they fail to get promoted. We're third on merit and have every chance of getting one of the automatic spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 With Charlton v Watford coming up on Saturday a win for us tonight, regardless of other results, would give us a chance to either break away from one team just behind us or firmly establish ourselves in the push for automatic against in the game against Palace.If all the top teams win and the table remains the same going into that game, then either Charlton will trip up Watford or the hornets will set back the addicks charge. Win Win for us IF we can do a job tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garlicbread Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Interestingly a lot of clubs could gate-crash the play-offs but I expect the two promotion spots to go to those currently in the top five. Whilst you'd expect Watford & West Brom to kick on they haven't set the league alight and losing King is a big blow to Watford. Also within West Brom there must be a certain amount of anxiety that the team will be picked apart if they fail to get promoted. We're third on merit and have every chance of getting one of the automatic spots.Great thread. Very confident on playoffs. I just think our sketchy away form mite continue and the top 2 will end up as watford and baggies.Would be ecstatic with playoffs and could really see us getting to Wembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will Rollason Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Even if we do lose tonight the worst we can be is 4th which aint bad at all. Scunny had 80mins with 10 men in the draw with Sheff utd on Sat and even their manager said they had nothing left ,so,if we keep it tight tonight they could well run out of steam late on - cue LT and Byfield for last 20 after Dele has given them a battering for 70. Wondering if GJ and MIlly will turn the dug out into a little shrine..........BTW i still expect Watford and WBA to go up but if we are in the mix late on......... welll.... stranger things have happened...at sea.... so they say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderSomerset Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Even if we do lose tonight the worst we can be is 4th which aint bad at all. Scunny had 80mins with 10 men in the draw with Sheff utd on Sat and even their manager said they had nothing left ,so,if we keep it tight tonight they could well run out of steam late on - cue LT and Byfield for last 20 after Dele has given them a battering for 70. Wondering if GJ and MIlly will turn the dug out into a little shrine..........BTW i still expect Watford and WBA to go up but if we are in the mix late on......... welll.... stranger things have happened...at sea.... so they say... I don't know why but I am getting this strange feeling that the baggies may start to bottle it.. They lost on saturday and the pressure is really on them as they are clear favorites to win this league.. I may be wrong, but Watford are not exactly consistant either and if we can string a couple of wins together who knows what we may achieve.. Some massive games coming up though but there is no pressure on us as we were not expected to be where we are and every point is a bonus. To be honest, I am happy we are staying up and the play offs would be fantastic.. What a season we have had! :Believe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cider head Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 We need a goal.... stoke 3 up at half time, watford 1 up but have 10 men.RED CARDWatfordO'Toole (40)GOALWatford 1:0 LeicsHenderson (45) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 12, 2008 Report Share Posted February 12, 2008 Win tonight and we'll be on 57 points with 14 games left.In other words, 1 point per game (which is generally seen as relegation form) after a win tonight would be enough to get us to 71 points. With just 74 or so being enough for a play-off place, as a rule, you can see just how tantalisingly close the play offs are, even if we do have a fairly major blip.Looking back through GJ's reign, even taking into account the 9 game losing run (2 of them were cup games), we took 15 points from any group of 14 games you choose that incorporate that losing streak. I think any repeat of that is highly unlikely with GJ's squad now settled and his own choice.Basically, win tonight and we need around 17 points from 14 games to secure a play off place. I think this underlines that the games are starting to run out for the chasing pack.All rather pleasing.People said that 50 points was a crucial milestone, but now we need to look for top spot.8 wins from 14 games and who knows. Every win is massive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edson Posted February 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 All rather pleasing.People said that 50 points was a crucial milestone, but now we need to look for top spot.8 wins from 14 games and who knows. Every win is massive!I think it's also worth mentioning that, with just 14 games left and a 10 point gap to 7th, even if we only return 1 point per game from here on in, the team in 7th would have to return 24 points from 14 games to catch us - that's a rate of over 1.7 points per game.At our current points per game return (1.78), we are on course to finish with 82 points. A return of 1.28 points per game in the final 14 games would see us reach the oft-stated 75 point mark, which generally secures a play off berth.As Gary always says, at this time of year, each win drops a few more teams out of the equation, which underlines why last night's win was so massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 Winning our remaining 7 home games would give us an extra 21 points to add on to the 57 we already have giving us a healthy 78 points and thats assuming that City lose all the remaing away games.Remaining games - Monday, 18 February 2008Bristol City v Crystal Palace, 19:45Saturday, 23 February 2008Colchester v Bristol City, 15:00Saturday, 01 March 2008Bristol City v Hull, 15:00Tuesday, 04 March 2008Charlton v Bristol City, 19:45Saturday, 08 March 2008Leicester v Bristol City, 15:00Tuesday, 11 March 2008Bristol City v Watford, 19:45Saturday, 15 March 2008Bristol City v Plymouth, 15:00Saturday, 22 March 2008Cardiff v Bristol City, 15:00Saturday, 29 March 2008Bristol City v Norwich, 15:00Saturday, 05 April 2008Southampton v Bristol City, 15:00Saturday, 12 April 2008Bristol City v Wolverhampton, 15:00[/bSaturday, 19 April 2008Stoke v Bristol City, 15:00Saturday, 26 April 2008Sheff Utd v Bristol City, 15:00Sunday, 04 May 2008Bristol City v Preston, 15:00[/b] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE23Red Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 I think it's also worth mentioning that, with just 14 games left and a 10 point gap to 7th, even if we only return 1 point per game from here on in, the team in 7th would have to return 24 points from 14 games to catch us - that's a rate of over 1.7 points per game.At our current points per game return (1.78), we are on course to finish with 82 points. A return of 1.28 points per game in the final 14 games would see us reach the oft-stated 75 point mark, which generally secures a play off berth.As Gary always says, at this time of year, each win drops a few more teams out of the equation, which underlines why last night's win was so massive.It was certainly a big win and I'm now confident of a playoff place. However the fact that only four points separate 5th to 12th means we have to outrun a large pack of teams in the run-in. I'd never back two teams from two bettering a 2-point-per-game average in the last 10 games but any two from seven is a different proposition.The key is March. We spend the whole month playing teams in the chasing pack. Win them all and the only analysis will be how many more points we need for the title, lose them all and we go into April as one of the chasing pack. But isn't it good to think that the absolute worst case scenario is that we are still in contention for a play-off place in April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newboy Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 I've got the same feeling as this time last season when we were 3rd on 56 points. We had a winning mentality which grew stronger not just with every good result, but also with every setback we had.We had pivotal games in Doncaster and Crewe away and last night was another Doncaster and Crewe - a scrapped out late 1-0 win.I think it's beginning to pan out the same way, the longer the season goes on, the stronger and more determined we get - the team and the supporters.The pressure is on WBA, Watford and Charlton. Us and Stoke have no pressures and I fully expect that to be a telling factor.I'm hoping we can secure a top two finish, but the playoffs would be a great achievement . Ending up outside the playoffs would be disappointing - but only from the standpoint that it would give all the so called experts and pundits the chance to say " I knew they would fall away".For me, it's already been an excellent season and if we end up with a shout of the Premiership, it becomes an outstanding season.True, we can focus on the end game as much as we want, but for me this season I've enjoyed the journey. The quality of the opposition, our play and the general entertainment derived from that has been great this year.Last year there was quite a debate over performance vs entertainment. This year we've been spoilt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 Look at it another way (with your candle half empty if you will). Sheffield Wednesday in the closest relegation place to us have 32 points. That is a massive 25 points or eight games before they can even think of catching us. This would leave them seven games (and others around them six games) in which to get and stay ahead of us even if they won the next eight and we lost the next eight. To cut an over-complicated story short, there is a chance of being mathematically safe from relegation in three or four games time. We could be safe by Leap Years Day!!:Believe: <------ it's supposed to be a Bassoist Candle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest zider_head Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 Were already safe FACT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted February 13, 2008 Report Share Posted February 13, 2008 I've got the same feeling as this time last season when we were 3rd on 56 points. We had a winning mentality which grew stronger not just with every good result, but also with every setback we had.We had pivotal games in Doncaster and Crewe away and last night was another Doncaster and Crewe - a scrapped out late 1-0 win.I think it's beginning to pan out the same way, the longer the season goes on, the stronger and more determined we get - the team and the supporters.The pressure is on WBA, Watford and Charlton. Us and Stoke have no pressures and I fully expect that to be a telling factor.I'm hoping we can secure a top two finish, but the playoffs would be a great achievement . Ending up outside the playoffs would be disappointing - but only from the standpoint that it would give all the so called experts and pundits the chance to say " I knew they would fall away".For me, it's already been an excellent season and if we end up with a shout of the Premiership, it becomes an outstanding season.A good point about last season's games at Donny and Crewe Cynic. Last night was not a game for free flowing passing football. It was crap surface and a small pitch and it was pretty much hoofball from scunny apart from a brief spell early on.Our experience last season in scraping results in difficult matches could well prove invaluable as this season unfolds.While we are capable of playing top football last night showed that we are adaptable and that none of the players is frightened to get stuck in ( liked seeing Mcindoe and Sproule giving their defenders a fair bit of verbal and getting stuk in when it mattered, so it shows they are geed up at the moment) Watford can only play one way anyway and I wonder whether West Brom can adapt their style when they need to battle out a result in games like Scunny last night. As another poster put it, from now on the perfromance isn't anything like as important as the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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