spudski Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 ...imo...because we have become a team trying to score goals from crosses. We are playing wider and wider when attacking...with Kelly and Elliason down the left, and either Pisano, Hunt and Weimann combining down the right, all trying to get a cross into the box. More often than not Famara is in the box on his own...with Pato and Brownhill lurking on the edge. Here's the rub...Stats prove 'Crossing' is the least effective strategy when trying to score. Recent studies showed you score 1 goal from 64 crosses. With teams averaging approx. 19 crosses per game. So on average 1 goal scored from a cross per 3 games. Crossing is difficult. There are many physical and technical abilities required to consistently cross accurate balls in the box. Speed, stamina, dribbling, precision, tempo, to name a few. The crosser and the receiver also need a lot of coordination between the two of them. Not easy. In the five top European leagues (so it will be a lot less in the Championship), the average cross accuracy is 23.5% (the percentage of crosses actually delivered to a teammate). This means that more than 3 out of 4 crosses get lost (the ball is intercepted by an opponent, or goes out of the pitch). Even when the ball is accurately crossed and directly goes to a teammate, the chances of scoring remain poor. First of all, not every time a ball directly goes to a teammate, he is able to shoot. That happens slightly more than half of the times, 56% on average. Secondly, as aforementioned, scoring from a cross is tough and entails outperforming the defence. The percentage of key passes from crossing becoming assists (i.e. a goal) is 11.9% on average. This is well below the total percentage of goals from key passes (14.1%). Cross accuracy [23.5%] x Crosses translating into shots [56%] x Key passes from crosses becoming a goal [11.9%] = PROBABILITY OF SCORING A GOAL FROM A CROSS [1.6%]. This means that, on average, it takes 64 crosses to score a goal. Obviously, from these stats you cannot take into account the number of times a goal is indirectly scored after a cross, like after a failed clearance by the opponents. However, does this really matter? The point is: should we really base our attacking strategy on exploiting the opponents’ defensive mistakes? Is it no wonder our shots on target are so low using this ineffective strategy? As much as it's nice to see interplay and crosses by Kelly and Elliason...and decent crosses from Pisano and Hunt...exciting to see them beat their opposite numbers....what's the point, when it's the lowest scoring strategy in football? Easy to defend against...and even worse when you have an ineffective forward. We've gone from being creative, and playing fast passing moves into and around the front of the box, making openings, leading to shots to a team reliant on crosses that wouldn't look out of place in the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Agree totally. Why did it take you so long to see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendyredredrobin Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 I've been asking myself that question for the last 40 odd years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickolas Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Oh. I thought the answer was Lee Johnson!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swanker Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 A good striker usually helps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Having players strong enough and skillful enough to keep the ball in and around the opposition area, would help increase the strike rate. Currently it's far too easy for the opposition to defend our powder puff attacks. If we're intent on playing a big mobile bloke that can't hold the ball, and supposedly to his strengths but, with nobody playing off of him, when the rest of the squad are fast more skillful players more used to inter passing, then there's little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Have always thought that scoring becomes a more difficult excercise if the team takes to the field with the mindset that the main priority is worry ,more about what the opposition is going to do, focussing on keeping things tight and not conceding, and think this is where we are at the moment. That's not to say that defensive issues are unimportant, but with their minds full of negative or defensive messages, attacking players will feel inhibited and midfield players will be more concerned about their defensive responsibilities, so attacking inclinations tend to be suppressed. End result is midfield stops creating chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snufflelufagus Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Out of interest What is the highest percentage for goals scored? I'd guess set pieces which generally have a cross or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Prosecco doesn’t cut it these days, you’re expected to cough up for pink champagne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Red Hat Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 ....But its been explained ad nauseam on here that what we need is speedy wingers whipping in crosses for the big man. It MUST be true........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 44 minutes ago, nickolas said: Oh. I thought the answer was Lee Johnson!! Johnson Out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, RumRed said: Prosecco doesn’t cut it these days, you’re expected to cough up for pink champagne. It was Babysham when I was a lad . A top knicker dropper . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frenchay Red Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 Not as potent as Babycham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhistleHappy Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 49 minutes ago, wendyredredrobin said: I've been asking myself that question for the last 40 odd years Yeah, we did OK with crosses and goals a few years prior to that, when we had Skirton, Sharpe on the wings & J G 'The King Of The West Country' alongside Garland in and around the box. (or have I got my rose tinted polaroid's of youth on again?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhistleHappy Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Major Isewater said: It was Babysham when I was a lad . A top knicker dropper . 3 minutes ago, Frenchay Red said: Not as potent as Babycham hmm, … 'Cherry (popper) B' ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMidsRed Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 This stuff always hurts my brain. Up here in Stoke, we just know "hoof, smash! Ugh goal! Headbutt ref!" None of this technical percentage stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, WhistleHappy said: hmm, … 'Cherry (popper) B' ? For the hard to gets . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Cider Ed Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 If only we had a lanky striker who was a beast in the air. If we had one though we would probably sell him and then change our style to a crossing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rich Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Northern Cider Ed said: If only we had a lanky striker who was a beast in the air. If we had one though we would probably sell him and then change our style to a crossing game. Nobody would be that stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snufflelufagus said: Out of interest What is the highest percentage for goals scored? I'd guess set pieces which generally have a cross or two. I’d guess shots on target. Which is also where we’re gojng wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhistleHappy Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, WestMidsRed said: This stuff always hurts my brain. Up here in Stoke, we just know "hoof, smash! Ugh goal! Headbutt ref!" None of this technical percentage stuff. No offence.... It sounds like you're suffering from 'Tiny Penis Syndrome' (don't panic, that's just a bad case of lingering Pulis Hangover, you'll get over it ...... eventually!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMidsRed Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, WhistleHappy said: No offence.... It sounds like you're suffering from 'Tiny Penis Syndrome' (don't panic, that's just a bad case of lingering Pulis Hangover, you'll get over it ...... eventually!) My missus said the same thing. Probably time I saw a doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Oil Services Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, spudski said: ...imo...because we have become a team trying to score goals from crosses. We are playing wider and wider when attacking...with Kelly and Elliason down the left, and either Pisano, Hunt and Weimann combining down the right, all trying to get a cross into the box. More often than not Famara is in the box on his own...with Pato and Brownhill lurking on the edge. Here's the rub...Stats prove 'Crossing' is the least effective strategy when trying to score. Recent studies showed you score 1 goal from 64 crosses. With teams averaging approx. 19 crosses per game. So on average 1 goal scored from a cross per 3 games. Crossing is difficult. There are many physical and technical abilities required to consistently cross accurate balls in the box. Speed, stamina, dribbling, precision, tempo, to name a few. The crosser and the receiver also need a lot of coordination between the two of them. Not easy. In the five top European leagues (so it will be a lot less in the Championship), the average cross accuracy is 23.5% (the percentage of crosses actually delivered to a teammate). This means that more than 3 out of 4 crosses get lost (the ball is intercepted by an opponent, or goes out of the pitch). Even when the ball is accurately crossed and directly goes to a teammate, the chances of scoring remain poor. First of all, not every time a ball directly goes to a teammate, he is able to shoot. That happens slightly more than half of the times, 56% on average. Secondly, as aforementioned, scoring from a cross is tough and entails outperforming the defence. The percentage of key passes from crossing becoming assists (i.e. a goal) is 11.9% on average. This is well below the total percentage of goals from key passes (14.1%). Cross accuracy [23.5%] x Crosses translating into shots [56%] x Key passes from crosses becoming a goal [11.9%] = PROBABILITY OF SCORING A GOAL FROM A CROSS [1.6%]. This means that, on average, it takes 64 crosses to score a goal. Obviously, from these stats you cannot take into account the number of times a goal is indirectly scored after a cross, like after a failed clearance by the opponents. However, does this really matter? The point is: should we really base our attacking strategy on exploiting the opponents’ defensive mistakes? Is it no wonder our shots on target are so low using this ineffective strategy? As much as it's nice to see interplay and crosses by Kelly and Elliason...and decent crosses from Pisano and Hunt...exciting to see them beat their opposite numbers....what's the point, when it's the lowest scoring strategy in football? Easy to defend against...and even worse when you have an ineffective forward. We've gone from being creative, and playing fast passing moves into and around the front of the box, making openings, leading to shots to a team reliant on crosses that wouldn't look out of place in the 80's. We've just scored 4 goals in 2 games. From 4 crosses. Don't worry about it too much, mate, LJ knows what he's doing....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted December 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Snufflelufagus said: Out of interest What is the highest percentage for goals scored? I'd guess set pieces which generally have a cross or two. From research stats... We believe that the coaches and managers may find the following result useful. Share of long passes in total passes and number of crosses played per game adversely affects goal scoring, but accuracy of long passes positively impact it. Technical perfection in long passes and passes in general is required, but strategically it is better to increase the number of shot passes played per long pass. This is what Johan Cruyff and his spiritual disciples in football strategy like Arsene Wenger or Pep Guardiola, have been saying for ages and we have seen great teams like Ajax (1971-74), Netherlands national team (1972-78), Barcelona (1992-94 and 2008 to present), Bayern Munich (2012 to present) and Arsenal (1997–2007) that successfully employed the strategy. In the season 2015-16 we have seen teams like Barcelona, Bayern, Dortmund, Manchester City, Arsenal, Paris Saint Germain etc. apply that strategy. Number of crosses, per game, increases if a team tends to attack from the wide. While it is a might be a good strategy to employ full backs to go on occasional overlaps, playing from the wide reduces the goal scoring opportunity. When a team attacks from the wide, the centre backs of the opposition gets more time and can anticipate the crosses. Basically... Share of long passes in total passes and crosses per game have significant negative impact. So the more crosses you play into the box, you are less likely to score. Our way of playing at the moment...is the least effective way to score in football. Stats back this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spudski Posted December 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Moments of Pleasure said: We've just scored 4 goals in 2 games. From 4 crosses. Don't worry about it too much, mate, LJ knows what he's doing....... Lets see how this strategy pans out over the rest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redsquirrel Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 im wondering if someone else is off in January and has let on what they will be getting,or the team are resenting the big 3s departure and their rewards. something is very wrong as the enthusiasm has gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downendcity Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, RumRed said: Prosecco doesn’t cut it these days, you’re expected to cough up for pink champagne. 1 hour ago, Major Isewater said: It was Babysham when I was a lad . A top knicker dropper . 1 hour ago, Frenchay Red said: Not as potent as Babycham 1 hour ago, WhistleHappy said: hmm, … 'Cherry (popper) B' ? If you're hung like John Holmes then all the above pale into insignificance against this........................ 1 hour ago, Major Isewater said: Johnson Out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Oil Services Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, spudski said: Lets see how this strategy pans out over the rest of the season Just my little tease. Our football does seem a bit 1980s and hit-and-hope currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, downendcity said: If you're hung like John Holmes then all the above pale into insignificance against this........................ the blocker on the net won't let me view porn ,alcohol or politics the grandchildren are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted December 3, 2018 Report Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, Major Isewater said: It was Babysham when I was a lad . A top knicker dropper . Archers in the early 90’s. If you wanted a second date you whipped out the Vienetta for ‘afters’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.