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Best 1/4 season start in 6 seasons??


Tinmans Love Child
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On 22/11/2020 at 09:11, slartibartfast said:

On the Derby forum, one wag simply said (of us) " Perfect away performance" !

Agreed.

I dont think fans can reasonably expect the team to put on a dazzling performance every game and win by a country mile.

 

1 nil away at Derby is still 3 points on the board.

 

The team has a lot of injuries and has been hit by covid

I s

I think Dean and staff are currently doing an amazing job given the circumstances.

 

Fans will of course counter they have a right to complain and expect Brazil circa 70s football.  Which is true, but just seems somewhat ungrateful of what this team has achieved so far, given the circumstances.   Always find it odd that many peoples default is to find fault rather than give praise.

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2 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Some similarities under LJ in 2019/20 too tbh, in terms of necessity to adapt with injuries- as I recall just off the top of my head, Kalas, DaSilva and Nagy were all out quite early- oh and Afobe. We had to adapt some them too...problem is when they returned the improvement in play didn't necessarily follow as it should have! Have more faith in it doing so this time around. Sure Korey was frequently out early last season too?

Yep- best since 2007/08 at this level, and I think like for like is best at this start- fantastic start, not least given all the injuries.

20 from 12 in 2019/20, 16 from 12 in 2018/19, was it 21 from 12 in 2017/18- this feels more sustainable in some ways than last season, underlying performance wise- and the number of players out and still to return might only add to that.

I think that's the thing at the moment on OTIB - are you a glass half full or half empty person.

Think we can all acknowledge, despite a super start, there are questions over certain areas of our performances that relate to our ability to maintain this position.

The question is are we winning while playing 'our best'....and when all the injuries return and the team settle we'll kick on?

Or will we continue in the same way and the goals dry up, close wins turn into close draws, draws defeats and we drop away to middle table, again?

I think that is very hard to predict but history (and stats) tells us traditionally it catches up with you over a season. 

Edited by Alessandro
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Winning ugly and grinding out results with half the squad injured was a common theme under LJ too. The team picked itself and we wereable to get some consistency going.

Then when those players returned from injury, he ovethought things, the tombola began and we fell to bits.

Hopefully DH has a little more about him!

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6 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

Winning ugly and grinding out results with half the squad injured was a common theme under LJ too. The team picked itself and we wereable to get some consistency going.

Then when those players returned from injury, he ovethought things, the tombola began and we fell to bits.

Hopefully DH has a little more about him!

Yep and keeping the squad (those dropped, rested or not playing) happy and onside.

To be honest I just don’t see it being an issue this season though - given the fixture list, I suspect more injuries rather than less as we go on. 

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2 hours ago, Major Isewater said:

It appears to me that the so-called home advantage isn’t that important in the modern game as so many teams set up to be solid and attack on the counter. 
 

The home team feel a bit ‘ obliged’ to ‘ lead the dance’ and this often leads to being too open and losing. 
 

The empty stadium phenomenon is interesting in how much it affects the team and tactics. When the supporters return will this have a positive or negative effect on our team ? 

Agree & a good point

Crowds returning will have some effects , positive and negative for players and teams - gonna be interesting 

 

Theres also the psychology for someone like us who it looks like will have no fans for a while , playing away at a side that is in a Tier 1 and has a few thousand fans , to returning home to playing without any fans behind them still - gonna he a tough one for Clubs like us

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On 22/11/2020 at 15:15, sglosbcfc said:

The interesting thing in that table is how few goals we have conceded. When you consider that hopefully we will have Baker, Mawson, Mariappa, Williams (DM) and Bakinson (DM) all to add as defensive reinforcements at various points in the season, it is looking good.

I may be wrong but I can't see Baker fitting into the side. He's got attributes but his lack of ability on the ball means opponents choose to allow him to have it and close off his options. This inevitably leads to an aimless ball forward and we concede possession. 

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10 minutes ago, The Bard said:

I may be wrong but I can't see Baker fitting into the side. He's got attributes but his lack of ability on the ball means opponents choose to allow him to have it and close off his options. This inevitably leads to an aimless ball forward and we concede possession. 

Statistically last season his forward / progressive passing was below average for Champ CBs, but also worth bearing in mind the way we played too.  I’m not saying he Baresi by any stretch of the imagination, but in a more cohesive passing system his weaknesses on the ball may be lessened.

Dasilva at LB as a heavy receiver of his passes might improve stats too...as will having Nagy is midfield and Martin up top.

When he’s fit I’m keen to see if there’s any upside on Baker’s distribution in a Holden team.

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55 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Statistically last season his forward / progressive passing was below average for Champ CBs, but also worth bearing in mind the way we played too.  I’m not saying he Baresi by any stretch of the imagination, but in a more cohesive passing system his weaknesses on the ball may be lessened.

Dasilva at LB as a heavy receiver of his passes might improve stats too...as will having Nagy is midfield and Martin up top.

When he’s fit I’m keen to see if there’s any upside on Baker’s distribution in a Holden team.

Another thing against him is 3 5 2.  He has not got the skillset to play wide of the 3. Just because he's left footed, doesn't mean he will be any good at it. He needs to play in the middle with a quicker player more comfortable defending wide to his left. That will limit his options assuming we revert to a back3 when we have more defenders available. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Murraysrightplum said:

Brilliant graph. Can you maintain this on the forum for the season? Perhaps with a sticky?

I’ve ran it for the last 4 seasons!

I post it about once a month on different links. It nice to look at when we are doing well.  

Edited by redsapper
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2 hours ago, The Bard said:

Another thing against him is 3 5 2.  He has not got the skillset to play wide of the 3. Just because he's left footed, doesn't mean he will be any good at it. He needs to play in the middle with a quicker player more comfortable defending wide to his left. That will limit his options assuming we revert to a back3 when we have more defenders available. 

 

 

Possibly.  As I said, one to see if Holden’s system can improve him.

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22 hours ago, Hampshire Red said:

We wont be at home with fans for months or years. Too many stupid people in the city of Briz (some weaing blue and white quartered shirts) means Bristol will be tier 3 for a long time so unless we move to Clevedon or Cornwall, it will be this Sky or Robins tv for most of us for seasons to come, sadly

Without going all Covid on it, I think STUDENTS and Universities a big factor here. Go and check your figures up until early to mid September, one way ticket until April please! :sub:

Alright it's not easy for them, wouldn't be for anyone who is young, fully get that- more blame with the Government for allowing the return in September tbh.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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53 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Without going all Covid on it, I think STUDENTS and Universities a big factor here. Go and check your figures up until early to mid September, one way ticket until April please! :sub:

Alright it's not easy for them, wouldn't be for anyone who is young, fully get that- more blame with the Government for allowing the return in September tbh.

Spot on

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I can't stand people who 'blame'. I have respect for those who take responsibility for themselves under the guidance of a govt, act sensibly and look after others and themselves. 

Love DHs approach to City, Bristol and Covid which is 'shit hapoens'  be honest in your communications, don't ever blame or make excuses. Even more important don't be like certain sports officials and Capt Flip Flop Hindsight Starmer and look backwards and moan!

CoYRs 

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5 hours ago, Hampshire Red said:

I can't stand people who 'blame'. I have respect for those who take responsibility for themselves under the guidance of a govt, act sensibly and look after others and themselves. 

Love DHs approach to City, Bristol and Covid which is 'shit hapoens'  be honest in your communications, don't ever blame or make excuses. Even more important don't be like certain sports officials and Capt Flip Flop Hindsight Starmer and look backwards and moan!

CoYRs 

If this was about Covid, our rates were very low- Get your facts straight why don't you- depending on where in Hampshire you might be, you likely lack an influx of students who can have a drastic effect. See also albeit on a smaller scale and a different type of place, Canterbury.

I'd build a wall if I could, to keep them away in Jan. :thumbsup:

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On 23/11/2020 at 19:55, ExiledAjax said:

Out of interest what are the ppg and final numbers for the three average lines?

91 for Automatic Promotion                1.97

76 For the Pray Off's                           1.65

46 to stay up                                        1.00

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23 minutes ago, redsapper said:

91 for Automatic Promotion                1.97

76 For the Pray Off's                           1.65

46 to stay up                                        1.00

I think we need to win the next 3 games to get to 2.00

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2 hours ago, redsapper said:

91 for Automatic Promotion                1.97

76 For the Pray Off's                           1.65

46 to stay up                                        1.00

Yeh, so we are going at 1.8 currently. xG suggests a ppg of 1.2 is perhaps more realistic. Split the difference and it's 1.6 - so a chance of 6th.

Again out of interest, are you using the figures to achieve the target, or the figure that is needed to beat the team below.

For example to get automatic promotion you don't need to get the points that an average second place team needs, instead you need to get one point more than the average third placed team gets. 91 seems pretty high if it is suggesting that the average third placed team gets 90 points.

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35 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Yeh, so we are going at 1.8 currently. My average of a few xG sources gives us an xG of 1.2. Split the difference and it's 1.6 - so a chance of 6th.

Again out of interest, are you using the figures to achieve the target, or the figure that is needed to beat the team below.

For example to get automatic promotion you don't need to get the points that an average second place team needs, instead you need to get one point more than the average third placed team gets. 91 seems pretty high if it is suggesting that the average third placed team gets 90 points.

Why are you taking an average from ppg and xG?

2 different measures. 

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6 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

Why are you taking an average from ppg and xG?

2 different measures. 

ah sorry, the 1.2 I quoted for xG is the ppg that I've generated based on the xG we've posted and allowed over the season. It's not the actual xG value of each game averaged. I can see how the way I wrote it confuses things.

Edited by ExiledAjax
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On 22/11/2020 at 08:11, redsapper said:

@Tinmans Love Child You are correct the best start so far.

You you look we always start well its the end of the season that is the issue!

image.thumb.png.90c83de7e838bc02e4269f193bea0468.png

Do you make these or get them online? I’d love to see an updated one 🙂

Edit: I see you posted one today! Useful graphic, great stuff. 

Edited by BCFCGav
Idiocy
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7 minutes ago, mozo said:

My word! What's our bloody problem!!! 🤣

If we could answer that and sale it we could make a fortune, either that or be the manager to get the team up. 

 

Not looking for excuses but with some of the injured players back in the squad. I think we would be more consistent with results. It will be interesting to see what happens in the transfer window.  

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