Silvio Dante

1 minute ago, Ian M said:

Oh, is Tinnion out of contract?

It’s been a long season scribing these, leave me alone…!

(We can only hope)

18 hours ago, petehinton said:

Clevedon through to play off final. Probably be a fair few people at Bridgy getting sacked tonight. 

Nobody wants to give Andy Llewellyn a sack after what happened last time he had one…

44 minutes ago, The hand of RO'D said:

Am I missing something? Or has SS got the table wrong?

Leeds have a better GD than Ipswich?

Correct me if I’m wrong but haven’t Leeds got a better GD than yourselves? If you lose and they win they go up?

No you’ve not got it wrong. The maths is simple.

Leeds have to win (by any score) - but they can only go up if Ipswich lose (by any score) and if that happens, Leeds’ superior GD sees them up. A point is enough for Ipswich whatever Leeds do. I’m not sure why the post you quoted overcomplicated that other than alcohol after last night!

I expect Leeds to win so Ipswich will need something. Huddersfield are practically down because of the GD they have and there is the “will they go all out” factor. Almost makes you wish we hadn’t been given that dodgy pen against them a couple of weeks ago as with those two extra points the Ipswich-Hudds game would have a different complexion 

4 minutes ago, glynriley said:

If Leeds stay down, we're effectively -6 points at the start of the season...

I think this is it. Whenever I’m looking at promotion/relegation I want to lose the teams that are likely to be the most difficult for us next season. If Ipswich don’t go up, McKenna is squarely in the frame for a decent prem job (West Ham?) and I don’t see them being the same force next year. Leeds however will be strong - and probably stronger than the three likely relegated teams. For that reason, I’d be quite happy to see Leeds and Southampton go up.

On a similar basis it’d be good to lose Birmingham- likely to have good investment in the summer and Mowbray in charge so will be stronger next year. I’d want Oxford up as the weakest of the playoff sides.

All about what’s best for us as far as I’m concerned.

Hmmm

New poster

Male name

Joins an hour ago

First post is to resurrect a thread from one month ago and compliment one of the only posters per username that is clearly female.

GILES!!!!

1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

McKenna has won 74 of his 130 games in charge at Ipswich, losing only 20.

I know he's Irish, but i think there's a lot more to it than luck. 

Dare I say there’s a bit of “intent”. I agree that they’re (personnel) wise a mid table squad but they go for it. Minute one to minute ninety. Take against us - that could quite easily be a “take a point” but they just kept coming. 
 

It’s less likely to work in the prem, but they’re an excellently drilled side who try to win every game from first to last minute. I don’t think sides - at this level - at this time - have quite been able to grasp that as yet

50 minutes ago, Bristol Rob said:

Any idea what Manning has done pre-season at his previous clubs, overseas training; mini tour; home games, painting a school in Botswana? - all that sort of thing.

Just wondering if he had any form.

MK Dons - 6 day training camp behind closed doors in Dublin. Away friendlies only as Stadium:MK was in use. Played 4 friendlies, 3 non league sides and Norwich U23. 

Oxford - 7 day training camp behind closed doors in Spain. Friendlies against Southampton U23 (allegedly made an impact), us, Swansea, QPR and Eastleigh (2 behind closed doors, away at Eastleigh, home to QPR and Swansea). Got chatted up by an illiterate Geordie.

So, I’d guess at a behind closed doors camp, about 4 games and lots of processes.

7 minutes ago, mozo said:

I don't really mind if it's a low block or a high press etc, so long as we're performing to our level and getting results. The intent stuff is a secondary concern to 'performing' and succeeding imo. Obviously I appreciate that there is a view that the two will go hand in hand.

Realistically, I expect Manning will mix it up.

 

Depends dunnit?

A run of unexciting 1-0 wins where the football is turgid won’t have anyone complaining short term, but also won’t probably buy major credit long term. It’d be churlish to suggest if we’re winning people will complain about the outcome (however, noting red flags on the wins - like - gulp - result vs XG is something different).
 

The broader point for me is that v1 didn’t work, so a lock stock back to it with the same players (broadly) isn’t likely to work. A “mix it up” is fine and I’d agree that’s where we may land - but I’d hope v2 would be the “base”

Anyway, I think we’re interrupting a wider dispute so probably for another thread!

6 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

 

He knew our strengths. He knew what the expected style was yet he tried to do it the Liam Manning way for some bizarre reason. Our season was sacrificed for this and it didn't work because it was never likely to work.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that you play to the strengths of your team. 

 

 

Second game in:

43 minutes ago, mozo said:

Well we do know that LM is a student of the game, and avid analyser, so I'd be stunned if he were just ignorant to the possibility of tweaking things until the players knocked on his door. I would imagine there's more to it than that.

The contra to that (obviously) is if he’s such an avid analyser (and I agree he is), why it took him so long if it was under his own steam? I go back to the xG thread yesterday - there were signs even before the post Watford slump that things weren’t trending right. 
 

Either it’s a case of there was a trigger event “external” to him and Hogg (be that Jon, Tinnion or senior players) or it took him that number of months to figure it out. I’ve probably got less of a problem with scenario A as it shows ability to accept change and feedback. If it’s scenario B then it’s an argument of whether a coach should take 5 months to figure out his sides strengths (and the answer to that is pretty much no)

The agreement I think everyone has is that there is a different approach post Easter. Call it bravery, call it intent, call it whatever. And as I’ve said a few times, I don’t care how he got here as long as we’re now at somewhere near the right place.

The fear (which I think is valid) in that as Liam was cautious and pretty intransigent prior (and there are signs that he does believe he’s right if you watch the pressers), that he will revert to prior as he does believe it’s the right way.

The first 10-12 games of next season are massive. If the “intent” changes to pre Easter it’ll tell us a lot.

4 minutes ago, FNQ said:

Not sure how he can with pretty much the same squad? 

Didn’t stop him before!

2 minutes ago, ciderwithtommy said:

@Harry appreciate the insight and of course it makes sense not to throw someone under the bus to appease the forum! The one bit I am slightly unsure on, is if it was the players who suggested to LM we needed a change, and he listened, does that equate to poor leadership? Or does it lend itself to creating more accountability for the players? I.e. we have problems and if you have the answers, I’m happy to facilitate that. The other option from the player meeting would’ve been “do it my way or leave” - not sure that’s great leadership from someone so new to the group whilst they were struggling for form. 

In reality, it’s likely pragmatism from Liam.

If you recall pre Easter and the run we were on, a lot of talk here was how the Leicester and Plymouth games were massive. The first one was a bit of a free hit but had we lost both it could have been Manning not Foster in the dole queue post the Home Park game. So he had to win.

You then have the added complication of the Swansea game - where we did win - but if we won in that manner again, it wouldn’t appease anybody.

He fails in those two games, it’s his job. And he’s then a coach with two sackings in two years and probably fatally damaged goods.

Is it likely, all things considered, that he suddenly hit on “we need to go back more to the style before we arrived?” Nope. One of the things often said about Liam is that he’s an obsessive. He’d have watched all our games pre his arrival, all the ones he’s been in charge for and endless clips. It wouldn’t have taken him 5 months to conclude that.

I’ve got no huge doubt he was “presented” with it as a plan, shall we say - and as JL has football knowledge you could write on a stamp, the only options for presentation are Tinnion (ho ho) or the players. And as it was the players who seemed to “go rogue” as Fevs puts it against Swansea, they’re the likely candidates.

In my view, it’s likely he was presented with it by the players. He was then pragmatic enough to accept it over the likely outcome if we’d kept flogging the dead horse of losing his job and we’ve all benefitted.

The wildcard here now is next season. Now Liam feels more secure, does he go back to plan A?

….and if you click this link you’ll get 20% off.

Never seen this before. Post match of 1985 FA Cup Final, Man Utd manager Ron Atkinson and Everton player (who was fouled) Peter Reid discussing a Kevin Morans red card - the first in an FA cup final at that point.

Imagine anyone in todays game making those statements after that tackle!

21 minutes ago, TV Tom said:

They're not happy on gas chat, being charged £15 extra for a physical season ticket 

Saves the morons nailing their phones to the wall in protest at poor performances tbf

1 minute ago, Shauntaylor85 said:

Pre recorded to be safe and sure. What a shame we cannot do a live phone in and on the spot transparency. Does worry me. 

That answers my question.

Still, Jon shat the bed publicly on his last round of club produced pre recorded interviews so no reason to think he won’t do the same here.

12 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

On a slight tangent, but along the lines of your point, one of my biggest pet hates in football is when comparisons are made to previous meetings between teams and the relevance of that on the next result.

@Mr Popodopolous is going to burn you.

Opened a can of worms here!

Heres my twopenneth, using examples from this season:

-xG as an arbiter of individual chance quality is wholly unreliable. IIRC, Sykes’s winner against Boro (H) had a (relatively) good xG because of where he was stationed. However, the trajectory of the ball towards him and the difficulty of the skill, and the opposing players to navigate weren’t considered. On a sample of 100 chances in the same position the xG would have been a reliable average but Skykes’ chance was at the highest difficulty/lowest xG position of those 100 chances. So as an individual chance, the xG wasn’t reflective

- However, it goes without saying that in a sample of 100 the majority of your chances will be nearer the average than outliers!

- Now take the Hull City at home game. We won 3-2 with an xG of 1.64. We had 16 shots. The penalty was one (0.76 xG) - meaning the residual 15 shots had a combined xG of 0.88. If you remember the game we barely tested the keeper, and our two open play goals were a massive deflection for Knights and Mehmetis shot where the keeper injured himself in the dive so didn’t get down properly. Inherently we had a lot of shots but the quality of chances we produced was extremely poor, hence the xG. Any coach - and I’d imagine Liams the same - would have looked at that and known that position couldn’t go on (as you won’t get the deflection/keeper injury every game). Interestingly enough the next game was Watford, where we were excellent, but then we went on a horror run up until Easter - so the xG actually gave a bit of a leading indicator

- And a great parallel to that is the Sheffield Weds away game where we lost 2-1. Liam said after the game “We had 17 shots, 12 inside the box but didn’t test the keeper” - our xG was 0.96, so both shots and xG in the same ballpark as Hull - but a markedly different outcome - the low xG relative to shots wasn’t impacted by the outcome bias 

In the “pre stats” world we all could say “we were lucky/unlucky to lose that one”. I see xG on a collective basis as being a decent arbiter of whether that’s true.

Green line - non penalty xG for over rolling 6 games. Red line - non penalty xG against over rolling 6 games:

I’d say it’s got a pretty good correlation (NB - I take xGs value as collective as opposed to individual chance level as being a decent arbiter)

And here’s the source (and everyone else)

3 minutes ago, phantom said:

https://www.bcfc.co.uk/news/the-wurzels-performing-live-at-family-day/

I see your mistake

Yeah to be fair I’m all for mocking @Robbored but the way the below is structured certainly suggests you had to buy tickets for the Wurzels:

He was excellent today, and it was miles up from his other performances. It’s ironic that the OP stated in the week that we couldn’t judge Twine on his indifferent games to date but is now jumping on the must sign bandwagon after one performance.

Two things stick out for me:

- Scott was shit hot at league one. Today we were essentially playing a league one side (beat what’s in front of you etc). We know he can school teams of that standard - we don’t know if he can do it against better sides

- I’m with @Davefevs - there is no way going to be that wriggle room on the fee. It was £5m in January and as stated in this thread, Liam clearly wants him. He’s not even been close to playing poker. If you’re Burnley, and your potential purchaser is desparate to buy, why would you drop the price?

So, for my book it’s still likely to be £5m or near to. And as excellent as Scott was today, it reaffirmed a known about him. On the body of evidence over the wider spell, I’m not sure there’s enough to do that deal.

20 minutes ago, mozo said:

I don't feel sorry for him. I'm really glad that King and Morrison got on. They're a much higher priority. 

Oh I’m in agreement there. More so on a personal level this move (and you’d also argue the Man City to Westerlo move) have damaged his career in how they’ve turned out, perhaps fatally. I’d much rather we did the right thing for Bristol City or to give Andy King a warranted send off, but as a person - acknowledging that he may well be at fault or have an agent that’s not advised him well on his moves - it’s hard not to feel some sympathy. He probably just wants away from here - and possibly football in general considering his last year.

Undoubtedly a good end. And a good performance today - it’s a cliche to say you can only beat what’s put in front of you, but it applies today. Equally though over the course of seven unbeaten games odds are you will play some poor sides, some good sides so you ultimately get what you deserve - and that’s broadly been the case here.

The key question really is how this augers for next season. It’s possible that four of todays starting eleven won’t be here next year - Owers and Paul Binning were talking on RB about whether momentum will carry over - consensus was that it typically doesn’t but for me it’s how much you keep the squad together or augment early. This is where the January business of Bird and Stokes is key - they’re in the building day one and the latter is already training (not forgetting Murphy who is doing the longest pre season known to man).

So, for me what we need to do now to capitalise on this momentum is make the signings (and the exits) early. If Tommy isn’t going to sign, sell him in May if the price is good enough. If we are to sign Twine (and I’m not on that bus yet - thought he was excellent today but we know he can do it against that level of opponent) - do it early. Get negotiations with Williams and James if applicable done early - and set a hard deadline.

Ultimately good ends to the season often mean nothing. But if we want to make this one mean something, for me it’s now on the recruitment team to get everything done - if possible - in the next six weeks or so to enable everyone to be together day one of pre season.

I think today confirmed two things:

- We’re not signing him

- There have to be clauses in the loan with Westerlo that say we get penalties if he’s not in the squad. There is no other rational explanation for his continued presence on the bench but not the pitch.

I felt really sorry for him today - looked over at about 65 minutes and the other subs were warming up but he was just sat there. He knew he was never getting on. Got to be soul destroying for him.