LondonBristolian

It is an interesting idea but presumably it would need to then be set back on track at some point? Would we need the 2022/2023 season to run half a season and everyone play each other once in a randomly allocated manner in order to get back on track?

Pretty much how I see it. As you say, it could backfire massively but I do understand the logic. One other aspect I wonder about - given how much the approach is tied to behavioural economics - is whether sports events closing on their own accord and people starting to avoid social events voluntarily is actually in keeping with the plan. It wouldn't shock me all that much if some of the slowness to act is based on a belief that the public (and large organisations such as the Premier League and the EFL) will accept and process these measures better if they decide on a need for them themselves rather than having to do it because the government told them to.

I have decided not to, although I have an underlying condition and my Mum has one too so I am being ultra cautious...

Totally get where you are coming from and I don’t think you are wrong but I think we are potentially facing something that would challenge even a well-funded health system. And, much as I hate the message that we are going to have to accept many of us losing loved ones, I wonder if that is a rare moment if the Prime Minister telling a truth that we might have to face up to in any case. Don’t get me wrong - I am no fan at all of the Conservatives and what they have done to the health system and I think there is every reason to be cynical about whether their intentions are in good faith but I think a lot of countries are about to be overwhelmed by this and I don’t know how confident I am that other country’s measures will work any better than ours will.

To be fair, there are two very different scientific approaches taking place at the moment. Most of Europe seems to be trying to nip it in the bud in the short term and aiming to stop it before it takes hold. Our government essentially appear to have conceded that it isn't something that can be nipped in the bud in the short-term - or at least not without causing a recurrence at a later point - and are essentially accepting it will become widespread and trying to manage that. I get the logic - especially around the idea that introducing measures too early will mean people cease follow them at crucial times - but I can also see why people feel the government is not doing enough. I believe the Chief Scientific Adviser and Chief Medical Officer are being sincere in the advice they give but can absolutely get why people look at the fact we are going in a completely different direction to the science elsewhere and feel a bit concerned and alarmed by that. Hopefully our approach will prove to be the right one but it is impossible to be sure. And I think anyone choosing to work from home, minimise social contact and avoid crowds is doing a very sensible thing, irrespective of government advice.

Hope it is just a cold but must be a frustrating and scary thing - look after yourself.

Three Leicester players in isolation...

Update to that. The hotel have been really nice and asked if I want to use the booking later in the year. Really kind of them.

I've now cancelled my plans to go to the Forest game. Luckily I'd not bought a ticket but am losing out on train tickets, hotel costs and gig tickets whilst I was there but I just think I've got to be sensible about my health and I think, at this point, mass gatherings are too much of a risk for anyone with an underlying condition.

They have said that will be the next stage - probably from ten days or so onwards...

Christ. Look after yourself. It must be a horrible thing to be going through.

Horrendous. Utterly horrendous.

Christ. That could be massive. Hope she - and everyone else diagnosed - makes a speedy recovery.

I think the flaw with your figure for number of infections in China is how enormous China is and how comparatively tiny the UK is. I think a fairer comparison would either be the % of cases in China relative to population v the number of cases in Europe relative to population or the number of cases in Hubei v the Uk . Otherwise it just is not a like for like comparison.

This may be true but a lot of people over 80 having potentially fatal illnesses at the same time puts a huge amount of pressure on hospitals and gp surgeries. Even if you take the human emotion out, the fact is that people like you and I - who have underlying medical conditions but are not at the extreme end of the “at risk” groups - may still find are health negatively impacted by an inability to get medical supplies, hospital appointments or GP appointments. There is medical equipment I am screwed without and GP services and hospitals being overwhelmed could create a lot of dangerous problems.

It is worth bearing in mind the average person with it infects 2 or 3 people. That is worse than flu but still suggests most infections will come from close personal contact with friends, colleagues or family rather than one person at a public event passing it onto hundreds of people. That is not to play down a need for concern as an infection that doubles or triplicates will still quite quickly infect large numbers but it is unlikely any single person or event will create hundreds of cases all in one go. However two or three taking it home to new parts of the country would still be a problem. If the figure is correct that 60% of people would get it if no action was taken, it should be possible to get that number down with action. But, if even a third of us got it and 1% died, that would still be 230 000 additional deaths. There were 616 000 deaths in the UK in 2018 total so that is a lot of extra deaths. (If it was 3% and over 50% of the population were infected, we are talking over a million deaths. Much over 50% and 3% and you get more deaths from coronavirus than all other causes combined) You are talking about massive, massive numbers of deaths whilst telling people they are overreacting. And anyone minimalising this because it will mostly hit elderly and disabled people ignores how many people have got elderly or disabled people in their lives they care about. The fact it mostly hits certain population segments does not make it any way okay, nor reassure anyone except the most self interested of people.

Thanks for this. Yeah, I realised I was massively over-simplifying in how I explained it!

Being reported he was at the game on Friday. If so, I would imagine our game is very, very much in doubt...

It's a frustrating one. I'm not in work today because I'm at the tail end of a cold and have got a few extra aches and pains and want to be on the safe side. And I know that, when the guidance comes into affect that people with colds have to stay at home and self-isolate for seven days, I will end up having to do that at some point. I'm also reasonably confident on what the symptoms of Coronavirus are and aren't so know full well that I don't have it now and, if the next cold I get is just a cold, I'd be 90% sure on that too. But it just isn't fair on others to take any risks. Maybe the whole thing is overblown, and maybe we are making a fuss about something that won't be as serious as people fear. But a week or two off work is nothing in the grand scheme of things so there is just no justification for taking the risk of being wrong.

Quick question, which there may well be nobody on Otib qualified to answer. Wuhan, where it first hit, and Italy, where it first hit in Europe, seem to have far higher mortality rate than anywhere else and there at least two cases - the doctor who died in China after contracting it from a patient said to have a "high viral load" and the first identified patient in Italy, who seem to have got it particularly badly despite not being in the age profile of people who get really hard by it. So my question is - do illnesses like this lose some of their lethality the more they spread? I.e. so the death rate of the first 100 people is higher than the first 1000 people and that in turn is higher than the first 10000 people and so forth? Or is there another reason why areas and people who contract the disease early seem to be horrifically affected in a way that doesn't (yet) seem to be affecting everywhere else?

Might be worth people being aware of so they can plan ahead. I'm not terribly worried about Coronavirus but seem to spend the entirety of October - April with a cold so guessing I am going to be self-isolating...

Germany are encouraging people to work from home and minimise travel and are recommending cancellation of any events of 1000 or more. Regardless of your views of the risk, I think it is sensible to brace yourself for the possibility of the same restrictions happening here. I'm massively starting to regret booking a train and hotel in Nottingham and a ticket for Ash at Rock City on the day of the Forest game...

This is true but the sad reality is sensible precautions against flu, norovirus etc. are always wise. At the moment, the consensus appears to be this is more severe than standard flu but very possibly less severe than Spanish Flu. It is also particularly frightening due to the inability to vaccinate vulnerable people against it. I very much think paying more attention to hygiene and sensible precautions is the way to go here.

Anecdotal remarks prove nothing but several people making the exact same remark about his commitment to the role are suggestive. Nobody implied he was home working, by the way. They implied he simply had no interest in the day to day activity of doing a job. I have no idea how many hours he puts in but I do know lots of people who do know all seem to indicate virtually the same thing. This thread should not be about politics, of course, so not going to go any further into this.

No offence taken at all. To be honest, it was less that I doubted myself and more than I am a lodger at the moment and had to ring 111 to reassure the people I lived with. Plus I work with some people who might be more vulnerable so felt a duty to check before turning up in work. In reality I felt pretty relaxed over the info I had found online...