The Swan and Cemetery

Thought he did better than most last night, got lots wrong, but showed up a lot more than most. Fair nuff, others have reputations in the bank, so can afford to have a poorer game here or there, but given the time he’s been with us seems odd not to give him the benefit of the doubt, until he’s actually had a chance to settle. Enough promise shown last couple of games to make me think he’ll be fine and dandy.

Nope, it’s been a pile on. But agree entitled to their opinion.

Indeed, plenty of others have been worse, but we gotta have a scapegoat.

We’ve helped them look decent, but they… look decent.

And others of relegation. Both way off the mark.

Always enjoyed going to Luton, unique ground that has a decent atmosphere. Never understand views that seem ecstatic/superior that we might have some padded seats or neatly symmetrical stands, personally prefer something that vaguely resembles character/history, not as if we’re being asked to live in the burger van.

Premier League often gives the impression of being undeserving/ungrateful egocentric juveniles swanning around, earning a fortune and thinking they’re the bee’s knees. We’ve got (I think) 5 players with Premier League experience: Andy K, Andi W, Matty J, Nahki W and Tomas K (the latter two each with fewer than 10 appearances each admittedly). These seem like 5 experienced professionals, setting great examples on work ethic etc to the younger lads. Maybe a good indication that some experience from higher levels around training and on match days, even if later in in careers (Andy rather than the other four), can have significant benefits in imparting wisdom and what it takes to succeed at the top level. Must be impactful for Alex to be working with someone with a Premier League winners medal.

OTIB at least is a great advert for BCTV/travelling a long way when it’s cold. You have to watch games yourself to realise how much nonsense is spouted on here. It’s like a support group for misanthropes most of the time.

Yep, 28 when he’s played, 15 when he hasn’t. Overall +4 GD when he’s played,-4 GD when he hasn’t.

My fumblings on Transfermarkt may have this wrong but I make it: Naismith plays: 20 games, 32 goals Naismith doesn’t play: 14 games, 11 goals (inc 2 penalties) Not necessarily causal, but I’d have a suspicion that it’s a least a bit causal.

Stating the mathematically obvious, but as we get closer to the end of the season, the room for us to move up or down significantly, reduces. We’d need to get past 8 teams to reach the play offs and 8 teams would need to get past us for us to be relegated. Bottom 3 are cut adrift (despite QPR’s form) and would need to improve their form season to date to get past us, even if we lose every remaining game. If Norwich continue their season to date form, we’d need a run along the lines of W9 D2 L1 to get past them, nothing suggests that’s likely. Clearly teams won’t all follow their season to date form, point is that as the team positioned exactly halfway between playoffs and relegation, in 14th, we’re probably the least likely team to bothering either this season.

They don’t look like a side that’s struggling, decent on the ball and strong, albeit not created too much. For stats fans we’re 2nd in the first half table and Cardiff are bottom, second half they’re 18th and we’re 20th, so on form we’ve missed our best opportunity. Not many having great games, we’ve defended resolutely, but need to do better with possession and being strong with second balls. Assume the theory is Wells comes on against tiring centre backs after Bell has run them around, don’t mind that theory, would just worry a little about Sam’s confidence. Overall, even at half time a pretty fair reflection and not surprising we look a little lacklustre after Tuesday.

Luton’s form this season would equate to 73 points. To match them we’d need to have a run in along the lines of W9 D2 L2. Is that impossible? Clearly not. Is that likely? Very clearly not, given current form. And that relies on no significant pick up in form from any of the teams between us and Luton. If I was a bookie (and going with actual odds rather than following the money), I’d offer something like 50/1 or 66/1, occasionally horses win at those odds, but very rarely.

Some great posts on this thread, highlighting some of the nonsense spouted further up (by some). His ‘mistakes’ were usually due to being massively isolated, either in or out of possession. That’s not a criticism of his team mates either, it’s a reflection of playing against some of the best players in the world, who are organised into one of the best teams in the world. Their organisation, skill levels and football intelligence to press effectively, close down passing options, create space for their team mates etc etc, is phenomenal and light years ahead of anyone we play against week in, week out. An ‘easy pass’ against Man City is entirely different to an ‘easy pass’ against QPR etc - they know what you’re going to do, before you do it. To say to Zak or any of the others “yep, it’s Man City, so please can you improve to their level overnight” is laughable. Lots of learning (and hopefully enjoyment) for the players and coaches, nothing whatsoever to criticise.

Indeed… if he can’t keep Man City at bay for 90 mins, how can he ever make it at mighty Championship level. Appears reasonably isolated, but always some flat-earthers popping up to talk nonsense.

Gaining 8 points on one team is perfectly plausible if we remain strong and they fall away - but getting past 9 teams, each with a head start on us, would require very strong form. Having got rid of losses (for now at least), we’d also need to reduce draws significantly. Not sure a Burnley-esque run of form is likely, but if we have one, play offs are in reach. Worse form than heroic and we’ll be beaten to the play-offs by one of the other nine having a slightly better run than us (or the same/worse, but maintaining their existing advantage). Not sure 20/1 is terrible value, accepting bookies will be pricing over round, 25/1 or 33/1 maybe more mathematically accurate.

Optimistically hoping NP’s possible ACL reference was to make a point about how the ref/linesman handled it, ie pretty much ignoring a potentially significant injury.

Indeed, Cardiff and the bottom 2 on track for 43 points.

Agree with this. With the Ouattara deal and then Antoine, looks like a team that expects to go down, so let’s get some talent with plenty of upside potential and if they turn out to be Prem ready and we stay up (1 point off 14th after all) that’s a bonus. If actually panicking and all about staying up, surely £30m would be better spent on a loan fee for a decent talent from a top 6 club and more oven ready, or bringing in an experienced journeyman who might not rip up the Prem, but could get a goal here or there to ensure safety in a very tight league? Very difficult to be confident in Antoine from day one given still looks raw in the Championship, but might be an absolute bargain that could have a Toney-esque impact in the Prem in 24/25. Seems like a sensible deal for all concerned, just not sure it’s quite the “yikes, we gotta stay up” panic that a Jan deal with multiple bids might imply.

Maybe not a statistically valid sample, but we seem to be doing reasonably well at persisting with the right players as they come through and being prepared to let some go. Think all of Zak, Cam, Antoine and Sam have not always looked like they’d make it, but we’ve persisted with them (maybe too many loans in some cases, but equally maybe that was needed) and now all 4 look - to varying degrees, as Sam still has a way to go - plausible Championship players. And of those from the youth set up that we’ve let go, not sure any are rocking the football world at a higher standard? Some good judgment shown by Tins in particular, but wider youth set up and first team coaching group as well.

Think that is pretty harsh, he goes to defend to most obvious ball as the CD closest to the near post. If he pulls out to try and pick up Dack then he’s leaving the ball across completely unguarded and he can’t be expected to see everything behind him. He can expect those behind behind him with a better view of how it’s unfolding to do a better job of getting to Dack. That said, given most goals can be stopped with better defending and that one certainly could have, it was also a pretty good goal - decent run, good ball threaded through, good awareness to pull back and a neat finish.

Had the same opinion at the time, looked just onside to me. Still think very tight given gaps between frames are long enough for things to change, so Bell being closest to the linesman probably hasn’t helped him. However I also thought the linesman wasn’t up with play and he clearly was and I can see why he gave it, so will be spending today reflecting on my personal confirmation bias and trying to become a better person.

Yep, great performance. One dodgy header near the end and a heavy touch resulting his yellow (according to the slightly odd Blackburn forum, if the ref had been consistent, that was a straight red, despite their player getting 2 yellows) were two slight errors, but moved the ball really well, quickly getting it to teammates in space and some very good longer passes. Plus great set up for the goal and all on top some very assured defending. Think scouts looking for a decent CD might look at Zak, which few would have thought until this season.

Given the midweek marathon, think we did pretty well, kept energy going until the end and played some decent football. Thought we moved it well when they were down to 10 and would need to see a perfect side on view to be convinced Bell was offside, from BCTV pictures thought he was in line with the last man.

Not convinced that was offside, linesman not up with play and central defender looked very close to playing Sam onside.