The Swan and Cemetery

If they won’t go above £25m for a 28 year old with over 300 PL appearances, almost 50 goals and a number of England caps, for all AS’s potential ceiling, think it would imply our valuation model is a long way out of sync with theirs.

City’s commercial success or otherwise is dependent on sales of replica kit?

Would be hopeful all agreed with Alex and representatives in advance, so the first club that meets our terms and his, off he goes. Really hope we’re not seeking a bidding war and hope he/his representatives aren’t putting pressure on us to accept low balled bids. We need to send the right signal to young/talented players and their representatives that a) they can develop and get their chance with us and b) we’ll be sensible (but not have the Micky taken out of us) when it’s time to move on. If we try to be clever now (I don’t think current management will be), it’s not without its risks for the future.

In terms of first team performance this season, wonder if AS sale will be simply a negative (lack of AS), with the vast majority of squad/team improvement coming from a combination of getting excess players and wages off the books over the last couple of years, plus the money from the Semenyo sale? Not convinced we’d have anticipated AS money in any of our business to date given conservative (and sensible) approach to FFP in recent times. Think the business we have done makes us significantly stronger than last season, but AS clearly strengthens us. Don’t think this is a reason not to sell though, player will want (and deserve) his crack at the Prem and the money can be used effectively still. But maybe a bit late to do much more business without being ripped off. Puts us in a good place for future sustainability, Jan window if needed and maybe investing more in a very successful academy. Did think we might want more goal scoring firepower to support TC, but I’ve extrapolated a couple of mins of highlights vs National league south to a new ‘goals from everywhere’ strategy, so reneging on that view. Think the most crucial individuals in the squad (based on their ability, but critically also their cover or lack of): Max O’L Rob A Matty J We’ve some sort of cover for all of them and if we brought 3 more in would we start to look a bit bloated as a squad? Whilst we’ve seen youngsters forced to make their mark in recent seasons due to lack of options, being in a better place squad wise doesn’t make the principle of youngsters getting their chance wrong. Can see Araoye, Palmer-Houlden and maybe others being there or thereabouts. That’s a long way of saying, maybe no one else comes in post AS sale.

We’ve no idea what tweaks to set up with/without the ball we’re trying, plus players that haven’t played with each other before etc etc. These are exactly the games to try things and accept things might not go to plan as no downside - the objective is getting ready for PNE and beyond, not sending GJ home recoiling from a hammering.

Not sure it’s obligatory for atmosphere to come as a bundle with those things. Lots of lower league/non league grounds have atmosphere/nostalgia, but no more violence/racism/sexism/homophobia than the homogenous bowls of the Prem and Championship.

Thank you. Still wonder if having a decent chunk of possible future income tied up in the waxing and waning fortunes of one club is ideal. Or maybe I’m just angsty about feeling as if we risk becoming a feeder club for the behemoth of AFC Bournemouth. If we rename RB Bristol City I’m out.

I mean me… I just can’t remember if I have or not.

Wonder if we put forecasts for future sell on clause receipts into our financial models and risk our future health, wealth and happiness being overly dependent on the transfer policy/competence of AFC Bournemouth with 3 reasonably significant potential sources of income with them at the same time.

Down tools. Seems like a sensible/nice chap so wouldn’t expect him to do it if we turned down (say) £10m from Burnley, but he might if we turned down £25m from Man City. This is why think it’s so important the we’ve discussed with him/his representatives our expectations on offers and hopefully reached agreement, so everyone knows where they stand if/when offers come in. If there’s a release clause in his contract, that might make things more straightforward for one and all.

Couldn’t agree more, the objective is winning football matches, not having padded seats. Kenilworth Road maybe old school (and all the better for it), it’s not unsafe. Additional qualifying criteria (other than safety) beyond sporting achievement is embarrassing (see rugby’s attempt at a closed shop).

Absolutely not. Man City offer £25m and we decline them, there is absolutely nothing Alex can do about it… or is there…? I’d be hopeful that we’ve agreed ground rules with AS and his representatives early on: - Gas offer £20k (if they can find a mortgage lender willing to offer 100% LTV on the Mem, so unlikely) that’s a no and we don’t expect you to be hacked off Alex. - Real Madrid offer £100m and you want to go, fair play Alex, live your best life - and if we say “no” don’t think unreasonable for him to down tools, as we would be being unreasonable. And more nuanced (and likely) offers in between. Hopeful that offers won’t be a starting point of our conversations with Alex re what we will accept and therefore his reaction to our reaction. Fantasies that the player has no power in this situation are clearly just that, fantasies.

And not sure I can think of plausible options that wouldn’t risk wage structure/team ethos, would want to come to us and also cost (say) £10m. If we got £25m, probably sensible to pop £15m in the bank or invest more in what’s becoming a very successful academy etc, rather than feel obliged to spend the money on first team marquee players.

Didn’t see him first time ‘round, lucky enough to see him second time ‘round. Leeds and Liverpool winners to keep us up come to mind. Legendary player in the most legendary of teams. RIP.

My maths may well be wonky, but make it revenue growth of approx 3.3% pa vs what they would have received, to break even over 20 years. Loss making in year for first 10 years then starts to be profitable. 5% and lose money for the first 7 years and significantly profitable over 20 years. Trying to remove impact of inflation all round and get to, in effect, a net present value of the additional investment. 2% growth pa and lose significantly over 20 years with only final 3 years profitable. At least investor and RM incentives aligned, the more effectively the investment is used, the greater the returns on the investment. And implies no repayment of capital, ie investment rather than lending, which makes it easier to get the financials to work. It may well be obvious from the above, but I’m not an accountant, so happy to defer to anyone with more competence (aka… anyone).

Thought Semenyo’s best days were when he had Martin dealing with/causing problems for the lump central defenders. Allowed him to move on to defenders who were weaker than him and his pace was as good as theirs, if not quicker. Remain to be convinced that something similar wouldn’t help Tommy reach his potential more swiftly. Big/strong defenders offer something and not sure we’ve currently got the frontline to confidently counteract them, lots of quicker players isn’t sufficient in my view, we need to have some other options. Cornick the closest, but very different to Martin/a striker who can beat up physical defenders.

I quite like this in lots of ways, but think we need someone giving defenders a physically hard time to relieve pressure on TC as a lone front man. Despite his detractors, currently only Cornick really fits that description (up to a point, more awkward to play against, than hugely physical), which is why I’d expect a striker to be part of the Scott spending spree, if he goes.

I broadly agree with this. It may never have been TK’s strength, meaning we may have signed the wrong player, but for the money, think we needed someone who could organise the defence effectively (most of whom were younger/cheaper/less experienced/not particularly vocal). Think TK alongside a strong organiser would have been great, given his ability to defend, particularly one on one, albeit needed help with starting position. For £8m we maybe went after the wrong type of defender. All that said, think he was our best defender for a season or few, just maybe not quite what we most needed on a not unlimited budget.

To take Selred’s post literally, think we’d be hopeful for better than average for 2 x £12.5m?

If the price is right, fair enough, no different to any other time. Helping us to the play offs/enhancing his reputation further to offset impact of contract running down is a plausible outcome. I’d be happy either way.

Great team when they won the Milk Cup, albeit any team with Aldridge up front would struggle to be bad. Ray Houghton, Malcolm Shotton, Trevor Hebberd et al. The stars aligned for them and they won an important trophy, fair play.

Think how we dealt with Massengo maybe instructive. If you’re not prepared to sign, don’t expect to play. For HNM that was potentially fine given age, games under his belt and acknowledgement of potential in his home country… for Zak/others, missing a season or so when at prime age might be very risky for getting a new club/remuneration he’s after. I really like Zak and think reasonable to believe he may not have reached his ceiling, but as a City fan, think we need to be fair, but tough, in our negotiating approach and if that means recruitment is to backfill a player that’s not playing, rather than one that’s left the club, sobeit. Whilst financially tricky in the here and now, think it helps us in the medium term with the message it sends.

Someone on their forum says he’s off to Leeds (admittedly a hint of my aunt’s plumber’s best mate’s niece works in the club shop vibe to it).

Agree this is true all other things being equal, but if AS kicks on still further and is critical to (eg) reaching the play offs, the contract length reduction in value could be offset by him being more highly sought after, plus we’d have had him for the season and reached the playoffs. All ifs, buts and maybes, but would definitely dig in heels for a decent price now (and hope/trust we’ve had that conversation with him/his representatives).

Guessing if we have put on offer on the table that’s towards, if not at, the top end of what we’ll pay, then Rennie’s view must be this season was an exception TK can recover from, rather than a cumulative build up over his career that will mean he’ll struggle to say fit from now on. If TK has the same view, not surprising he’s looking at other options. As long as we’ve a clear deadline for a decision (everything about NP suggests we will have), then think whether he stays (good player) or goes (expensive player), I’d be pretty ambivalent.