ExiledAjax

5 hours ago, wheretheheartis said:

Making saves is all about him, as he's made many, making less saves is all about the people in front of him. He's had a great season. 

I say what I say. He's had a good season but the shots he's faced, whilst numerous, have on average been taken from relatively easy chances. He's faced shots that he's probably had a decent chance of saving. That's thanks to the screen in front of him.

He's a good keeper, I keep saying that, and he's had a very solid season, but he's not in our top 5 players imo.

I think our result depends more on which Huddersfield turn up than which City turn up.

We've still not really seen us defeat a "low block". If the Terriers drop one of those on us and stick an early reducer or two in on Twine then it'll be a long 90mins imo.

4 hours ago, transfer reader said:

Made the claim of us being relegation form pre Easter when not a single form guide matched that.

The only 'form' tables Silvio provided where we were in relegation form was one with a very specifically curated selection of dates, over about 13 games. So non standard and specifically selected to be the worst case that could be found.

And the 2nd was a table where it had us playing 6 games, about half the teams playing 7, about half also on 6, and a couple on 5.

But over the set of results for that table, if you used an equal number across all teams, whether 5 or 6 (standard amounts used in form guides) or even 7, we were not bottom 3 of them.

I pointed this out but it was still used further.

This is intentional dishonesty. The act of a liar.

 

That is not to say we weren't in bad form. But at least 3 teams were worse, and at least 2 of the 3 from a worse starting point, so not relegation form.

But then I posted an objective, cold, impartial measure of "form" - a simple rolling ten game measure of our games - and you didn't accept that as showing "relegation form" either.

We were trucking along at 0.8ppg over ten games. 

If "form" is a measure of short term results then it has to be defined by a relatively short period of games. It can't be too short or you lose sufficient data points, it can't be too long or we may as well just loom at the table. The standard seems to be between 6 and 10.

Taking the final game of the three games I mentioned -  Ipswich on 5 March.

Previous 6 games - 6 points, 1ppg, not quite "relegation form", but very close.

7 games -  6 points, 0.85ppg. Relegation form.

8 games - 7 points, 0.87ppg. Relegation form.

9 games - 8 points, 0.88ppg. Relegation form.

10 games - 8 points, 0.8ppg. Relegation form.

That is cold and objective and consistent and shows unequivocally that we were, for some time in February 2024, showing the sort of form - in terms of results - that teams that normally get relegated show.

It doesn't mean we were actually in any danger of being relegated - of course we weren't - it just means that for a period of games we were as bad as a team that would be.

25 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

Our current form is top 2 form because it's the 2nd best over the last 6 games.

But you've said that relegation form is measured across a season, but promotion form is measured in a 6 game block?

27 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

What determines relegation is whether you are able to outperform at least 3 other teams over the season.

But over a season, 0.8ppg, which is form we have shown this season, would give us 37 points. Wouldn't that relegated us this season when 22 other teams already have more than that?

So by your own definition we were in relegation form.

You're arguing with yourself mate.

1 hour ago, transfer reader said:

Only if there weren't 3 teams with a worse ppg over the same games.

A team could pick up 1 point every 10 games, as long as 3 teams aren't getting any then they're doing better than those 3. 

In this league it's only 3 down, so 4th worst isn't relegation form, regardless of the number at the time.

I can't agree that the standard of one team's form is defined by the form of all the others. That means the measure and definition of form is circular and that the yardstick is constantly moving.

Form when discussed as indicating the expected end of season achievement of any team - be it promotion, relegation, or otherwise - has to be discussed in the context of wider averages.

For example, right now we're at 13 points in 6 games. That's top 2 form. Even arguably title-winning form. It won't get you that this season, but it's right up there in terms of what a team can reasonably be expected to achieve

4 minutes ago, transfer reader said:

Yes and no 

Yes, that level of ppg is what would likely get you relegated at the end of the season, but it is only relegation form if over the same number of games (rolling 10 in this case) there aren't 3 teams who are worse.

Teams have stayed up with under 1 ppg before (Reading 21/22, Derby 20/21, Millwall 18/19, Reading and Bolton 17/18), because 3 teams were worse than that.

That's 5 times in the last 6 completed seasons.

The average total required to stay up over the past 15 seasons is 44.5 points. That is 0.97ppg.

Therefore on average anything less than that is relegation form.

The precise points tally that the team in 22nd has from time to time doesn't really matter as it's so transient. In the autumn all 3 teams at the bottom were running at less than 0.5ppg, a few weeks ago it was looking like you might need 49 to stay up.

But, in both cases, a team would have been demonstrating "relegation form" if it had been running at 0.8ppg.

If you look at a rolling ten game period of form then we've been in definite relegation form (ie tracking at below 1.0ppg across 10 games) after three matches this season. Those were the three consecutive losses between 24 Feb and 5 March being: Sheff Wed (0.9), Cardiff, (0.8), and Ipswich (0.8).

All other complete ten game blocks across the season have us at 1ppg or above.

1. Dickie

2. James

3. Vyner

4. Tanner

5. Knight

Basically the defensive unit plus the screen in front of it.

O'Leary will be my notable exception for many. In my opinion he's done his job, which has been made easier by the unit in front of him. Those outfield players therefore get the credit. I'd have him 6th or 7th probably.

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Too many teams would all have had to of dropped points etc they said. Totally impossible they said. 

And this has proved true.

We've gone at 2.16 ppg (aka promotion or even title-winning form*) for the past 6 games...and have climbed two places in the table.

Be angry at the maths of the league table rather than saying we should/could have won games that we didn't.

*In a normal season.

And over those 6 games we've climbed from 14th to 12th.

The maths of football is rough.

9 hours ago, Lanterne Rouge said:

As it stands now at HT we are mathematically safe.

At FT as well.

Almost out of the play offs but not quite. The maximum we can now get is 69 (nice), and Norwich in 6th have 68.

6 hours ago, Northern Red said:

At the end of the season we'll be able to work out when we actually achieved safety- i.e. when we reached one point more than the team in 22nd ends up with.

Probably Swansea (47 points) but maybe Leicester (50).

Oh gosh

12 minutes ago, awbb said:

Worse than that. Palmer had already been on loan and been fine (though I had no ideas about allowing my Mrs to dabble in some light NTR, personally).

We signed Palmer for £3.5M that summer.

Madness.

Oh god was it even that. The permanent signing summer was it. FFS.

Powderpuff defending.

1 minute ago, MarcusX said:

I’m not gonna chastise the club through hindsight,

I would. He looked class in Tampa in preseason but the club went and signed bloody Kasey Palmer on loan.

21 minutes ago, Wade Wilson said:

Has a team ever gotten relegated whilst also having someone win the golden boot? 

Don't believe so. Although we kind of came close in 2015/16 when Tammy came second in the goals chart and we finished 3 points clear of relegation.

They've been poor at the back all season.

They started as a glass cannon and that cannon shattered back in the autumn.

I'm not actually able to watch so are we actually playing well, and with a plan, or is it that Blackburn are just that poor?

8 minutes ago, chinapig said:

He consistently demonstrates that he doesn't understand the PSR regs. Like any number of journalists he gives the impression he has never read them nor indeed independent commission decision. "It's not fair to punish a great old club like Everton" doesn't qualify as journalism imo .

No, that's opinion.

And worse, it's opinion based on a surface level understanding of the facts.

But Winter is easily one of the best "headline" sports journalists, even if he doesn't do the big deep dive cases that Conn, Ziegler, and some of the other guys do.

I'd also defend a misunderstanding of P&S. Reading the Forest and Everton commission awards shows you that even at that level there's some wriggle room and nuance in the interpretation of those rules.

6 minutes ago, Red Billy said:

  But I don’t wanna talk about it anymore!

(Or rather we’re not allowed to talk about him anymore)

I think he's gonna make it

On 06/04/2024 at 20:49, Superjack said:

He also has a house in Devon.

And drinks cider from a lemon.

18 minutes ago, TonyTonyTony said:

Even though he wasn't ours, id go for Tammy. Still only 26, although done his cruciate ligament so not playing until next season i believe. A 20+ goal a season striker should have us up there

Played 11 minutes last week in the derby della capitale. He's back.

3 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Why wasn't it dealt with now? What if Luton get relegated by 1 point? That would be incredibly harsh on them. 

In simple terms, because it's complicated, is in dispute, and they didn't want to wait for expert determination on the matter.

In detailed terms - as follows.

The commission does recognise that this is not exactly desirable and is "acutely aware" that people want this sorted quickly.

They could yet receive more punishment as there's an outstanding dispute around the capitalisation of some of the loan they took out for their new stadium (plus interest). 

Looking at the sums involved that might amount to a further 1 point deduction.

Para 20 of the award basically says that the Commission will determine the outcome of that "at a later time".

Szmodics.

Currently at the peak of his game, fills a gap in the squad, and is the one that got away.