ExiledAjax

Average of the 4 sources I look at was 1.39 for us and 1.30 for Burnley. So yeh both teams created roughly the same overall chance to score.

I can no longer attend so if anyone would like a ticket please DM me and we can chat.

Draw every game and you get 46 points. That would have been enough to keep you up in most recent seasons. Preston won't go down. My top 3 right now are Sheff Utd, Norwich and Burnley. Nothing clever there. Bottom 3 are harder but I think you could do worse than calling it as Huddersfield, Blackpool and Hull. Birmingham are trying hard to get relegated though and Coventry could really suffer as well if they can't make up their games in hand.

Cheers. So he's 100% getting at least one more yellow between now and then. Will likely miss a game somewhere.

When's the amnesty this season?

I know someone who works in Leicester's physio dept. Rogers is a dead man walking based on what he's told me.

That man would moan if he won the lottery.

What's telling for me is that after 2 losses on the bounce, and a rollercoaster of an opening 10 games...not one person has started a reactionary negative thread tonight* Does that say we're about where most people think we should be based on what we've seen so far? Most are content, and think that overall it's a fair set of results? Might not, maybe some people are just suffering in a power cut or have forgotten their login details. But it's awfully quiet tonight. *As of 19:05

Right. I hadn't checked the updated table. Doesn't that just prove the point even more though? Look, I'm not saying we're bad, I'm not saying I am disappointed with our overall performances and position across the 10 games. I'm just saying I don't think we should expect a top 10 finish or a "play off push" based on what we've seen so far. It's still a massive step forward compared to what we've gone through over the last 4 seasons. Edit. To add - it's really, really fine margins as well. Slight improvements in certain areas and yes, 5th - 8th is very much on.

No..that means it's got us into the playoffs in the short run.

No for sure. We're better. We're excellent at times. As I say above. I reckon 11th when it all shakes out, and I don't think we'll be lower than that very often. Should be a good season, but I don't see us as really maintaining a push for 6th.

Yep. I went one lower with 11th. Sticking with that after what I've seen. Reckon we will win more than the 15 we managed last season though.

Not for me. We won't win enough games if we keep giving teams 4 shots on target per game and keep conceding at this rate. Have to get that down to 3 per game to give ourselves a chance. Good that we've scored in every game though. Our average game over these first 10 is a 2-2 draw. That doesn't get you play-offs in the long run.

Nope we're in the third kit.

I told the club the same. But I found out too late. Kits were packed and submitted to EFL and approved. Wednesday was fine but I suspect today could be maddening for some.

Portugal's kit is so dull I've only just gone back and noticed it.

The France home kit is nice...but it's pretty dull. It's like a nice polo you might wear out. It's clean and crisp but it's not going to get you noticed.

Absolutely hyped for the impending kit clash in this one. Burnley's sleeves and shorts are going to be doing more work than any player on the pitch. Should be a deliciously terrible viewing experience for all involved.

Mental. But there it is.

Technically yes of course. I was thinking more excluding loanees, but yes this is probably correct.

Academy product Joe Bryan scored in European (conference) competition last night for Nice against Partizan Belgrade. Not sure who the last a) Bristolian or b) Bristol City academy product would be to have done that? Magnússon is presumably our last ex-player to play in European competition.

Just the 4 goalkeeper kits for Iran.

Something just on this, from a different perspective this time. Might be of interest to people. This podcast, at about 32:50 in features ex Ipswich and Charlton player Matt Holland talk a little bit about his experience as a professional player with colourblindness. He speaks interestingly about the time he played on his pre-season debut for Charlton, in red, against Plymouth, in green. https://audioboom.com/posts/8158641-what-the-efl-episode-4-diamond-house

Most countries have now released their kits for the upcoming World Cup. Whatever your level of interest in this weird and corrupt circus of navel-gazing and brown envelope swapping, at least we've been given some lovely (and some not so lovely) football shirts to look at. View them all here: https://www.footballkitarchive.com/world-cup-2022-kits/ Flops are basically any of the Puma away shirts with the weird squares on the front. Netherlands are taking some flack for their shiny off-brand Aldi orange offering this year. I think England's are pretty subpar as well to be honest. We don't have much to work with but the blues shoulders on the home kit just look a tad naff. Personal favourites of mine are Mexico away; and Ecuador away (in my opinion Ecuador have a beautiful trio of kits):

Are you trying to look at expected penalties or are you trying to look at ratios of actual penalties versus shots, shots on target etc? If you want an xP metric in the mould of xG or xT then you need to first work out what causes penalties to occur, and then measure that. xG works because shots lead directly to goals* and crucially are always attempting to become goals. It's clear what you need to measure, and you can use the record of results from millions of shots to predict the likelihood of any type of future shot becoming a goal. To do the same for penalties is far more complicated. There's a subjective human element - the referees - plus a far broader range of actions that result in a penalty. You'd have to account for all the various types of foul that can occur, and also for each referee's likelihood of awarding it. You'd have to account for VAR. You have to account for all of these things in all the different areas of the box. By all means give it a go but it's a big ask even for someone like Opta or Prozone to do all of that. The other way though, ratios of shots etc to penalties awarded. That's easier as those numbers are out there for probably the last 20 seasons or so. @Olé made a good start on that in the big thread we had going on our own penalty quirks recently. Probably best to find that again and buil from there. *a tiny number of goals do occur without a shot, but it's a negligible number.