ExiledAjax

24 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

It’s something I don’t really track, only cursory glances in relation to whether it’s changed in relation to total passes.  It’s remained around the 46-48% mark all season.

Wait until people find out that different methods of calculating possession have been used over the past ten years, and the methods continue to be developed all the time. Even more awful is that the same fundamental principle that underpins xG and xA - that we should try and qualify the importance of an event rather than simply counting the number of times something happens (basically why xG is superior to SoT) - is now being used to calculate possession.

Shocking and vile to some, and I apologise to those of a philistine nature who may be unnerved by reading this.

Just now, MarcusX said:

On a slight tangent, but along the lines of your point, one of my biggest pet hates in football is when comparisons are made to previous meetings between teams and the relevance of that on the next result.

Ha! Now here's a stat that really can be ignored in my opinion. 

I like Max, I love having an academy player, born and raised in the vicinity of Bristol, play a key role in our squad. He's had a good season as part of an excellent defensive unit.

But, I don't think he's irreplaceable. I think if we were to get a good offer for him, it's something we could accept without much concern, as I think there are other keepers out there who could come in and would perform just as well as Max.

So for me - no we don't need to worry if he leaves.

It might be disappointing, and I am not calling for us to sell him, but we would be able to replace him.

20 minutes ago, David Brent said:

It’s the most overrated stat in football.

Not interested if it’s used by betting companies or coaches either. It appears its biggest use is by football fans on innumerable football podcasts and forums.

If you ever have the fortune to speak to Matthew Benham, Thomas Frank, Rasmus Ankersen, or anyone else involved with Brentford in the last ten years then please record yourself telling them this and send me the recording of their answer.

I could really do with a laugh.

6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Indeed, only whoppers trying to twist it.

Aka. Cardiff City's legal team.

9 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

In the “pre stats” world we all could say “we were lucky/unlucky to lose that one”. I see xG on a collective basis as being a decent arbiter of whether that’s true.

In summary yes. Which is why it is most relevant and useful when we go on a good/bad run of results, and people get excited/depressed about promotion/relegation but xG and other underlying indicators of performance don't back it up.

In the early days circa 2015-18 it was also fairly useful for trying to "beat" the bookies, but their odds now all take account of xG (because it's actually really good) so it's not so useful for that now.

But anyway, I'm tired of trying to explain it to people who don't want to listen or cannot understand it.

...

As to your opening post, I said to @Davefevs on DM that it's a season where there aren't many teams that have busted the stats. Preston, Cardiff and Plymouth are the most obvious ones benefitting from lady luck/fortune. It also shows that Rotherham and the top 4 really are as good/bad as they seem. You can also see QPR and Sheffield Wednesday improve almost at exactly the point they change manager. Birmingham the opposite.

I still find it interesting, and I'll still tell people we aren't getting promoted/relegated because xG suggests we're utterly mediocre.

Fair play to @IAmNick for taking this one. Doing god's work.

Yes xG can tell us things. It's not always new things, but it is things.

Hasn't failed me for about 6 years now.

3 hours ago, petehinton said:

 

hosted by Paul (exiled Robin), with myself & @Davefevs - enjoy!

 

Will probably be some osib pre-season content over summer. 

Is this available for people who are not on Twitter (currently known as "X")?

4 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

Yeah was thinking that also, bet there's a part of him wishing he was staying for their campaign next season.  Derby's season might have crumbled without him!

Think Derby lost only one game whilst he was injured, so I'm not sure about how absolutely crucial he was for their season.

I'm excited to see him with us. He and Knight were just about the best part of Derby's horror Wayne Rooney/financial turmoil/relegation period. Reuniting them at Ashton Gate, 3 years older and more experienced could be really exciting.

3 minutes ago, Barrs Court Red said:

That’s nothing new though, in terms of thinking.  
 

Id argue a look at the stadiums in Italy gives a look at where things end up with your final point. 

It's not, and taking broadcast revenue isn't awful. 

I actually think the answer lies in asking a question about how any revenue - ticket or broadcast - is spent rather than earned. Does each club just put it all into the pockets of 25 or so young men, or does it get invested in facilities, used to subsidise ticket prices etc.

I expect the answer from clubs would be "yes, it already does all of that", but maybe they need to say that a bit louder if so.

3 minutes ago, Packman said:

Yes Dickie player of the year and players player, Conway young player and also champagne moment for goal away at West Ham.

And TGH v Middlesbrough got unofficial goal of the season (as voted for by the players in one of the Club's Instagram videos).

I agree, it's a banger.

55 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

It's a shame our very high attendance figures over the last 8 years or so have coincided with a dilution in the importance of income from ticket sales compared to other revenue sources. Doesn't really give us any competitive edge versus other clubs that it would have done say 20 years ago

Absolutely top point. And the issue is that the clubs have absolutely no issue with this continual shift in the importance of ticket revenue to broadcast revenue.

Most recently this has come up in relation to the FA Cup replay scrapping. An Arsenal official said to me"...my understanding was that any financial impact [of scrapping replays] would be minimal, and most likely offset by higher distributions from broadcast rights..." I've had this echoed from other clubs, EFL included.

It's an attitude that pervades the game right now, and in the long run it's going to negatively impact stadium facilities, ticket price matrices, and other services offered to local, club-in-the-blood fans.

30 minutes ago, eardun said:

Seems that we’re 11th in every table! 

Natural position.

Of which away fans are what? An average of about 1,500? Always hard to find figures for visitor numbers.

Happy for that figure to be corrected but if I can momentarily assume it's true then with 14,500 STs sold it suggests that we've been shifting an average of about 6,500 POTD tickets every game. 

With 99% of those being in the more expensive Dolman and Lansdown stands, that's pretty good for the coffers.

Just now, spudski said:

If you ever wanted a rumour spreading, then BT is your man. Definitely a loose Cannon imo.

Rumours, your PIN, medical records, travel plans, mothers maiden name, just anything you might want everyone to know really.

Just now, Lanterne Rouge said:

Ipswich one up at Hull

Which settles the playoffs if it sticks.

No way Hull make up more than 10 GD on WBA.

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I guess some market knowledge will come from knowing Azaz was £2.5m in a winter window, which typically is overpriced.  So hope that there are other affordable targets if they can’t acquire Twine.  But you can bet they are gonna bloody try!

Twine is obviously our number one target.

But who else...you're more on it than me but could we go for Rudoni, maybe Miyoshi? Two options where their current team are/may get relegated. Could well be available for nearer Azaz money than Twine?

38 minutes ago, Silvio Dante said:

So, for my book it’s still likely to be £5m or near to. And as excellent as Scott was today, it reaffirmed a known about him. On the body of evidence over the wider spell, I’m not sure there’s enough to do that deal.

I agree with you that based on what I've seen, £5m feels steep. But isn't the pertinent question: what else can we do with £5m (and the £15k p/w of wages)?

If we go to market and players like Twine, of his rough ability, and in his position, are generally that price, then that's the price. But if we think we can do more with that money, we think there are better options, then yeh I think you send him back to Burnley and go for someone else, regardless of the head coach's love for him.

1 minute ago, George Rs said:

Very good point to be fair, the season as a whole can quite rightly be taken both ways. 

But saying our last 10 have been easy fixture is a tad misleading, average position of the teams we’ve faced is 13th and we are a midtable side. 

Average position now, or average when we played them?

We looked at this a few weeks back - there's a thread somewhere on it - we were pretty widely considered to have one of the easier run-ins. Not the easiest, but one of them.

Still, we've got the job done and that all you can ask.

Even if we lose without scoring next week we'll have a record of 18 points and 15 goals from the last ten, which is "finishing strong" as Manning wanted.

Just now, Kid in the Riot said:

Yes - I was specifically talking about the run-in though mate, as we perennially finish seasons poorly/average at this level.

Ah right got you. Yes I'll agree with that, although with a nod to the 15 points from last ten games we got a couple of years ago in 21/22.

7 minutes ago, Malago said:

Mentioned neither.  You lose.

Luckily I bet against myself. So I win.

I've been thinking a little.

I think this is a season where an observer can take whatever they want. 

It's possible to look at the same facts, and see either great hope, expectations, and positivity, or signs of concern, failure, and negativity. What you see will depend on your outlook, your biases, your personality etc.

There's been brights spots as you rightly highlight, but lows as well.

Take these ten games. Yes great results, but one can counter that and say it was an easy run of fixtures, we got 4 (I think?) penalties, and some games were dead rubbers. 

It's just one of those seasons that in the moment seems very volatile and interesting but I suspect in 3 years' time no one will really remember anything bar the manager change in October.

These musings may not be totally on topic, and I'm not trying to be negative, but it is just one of those seasons where there's a bit for everyone.

7 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

I make it our best set of results since 2016-17 season.

Last season we had a spell where we got 19 points from 10 games, Birmingham - Blackpool, W5, D4, L1.

1 minute ago, mozo said:

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is a big achievement. I'm just delighted to watch City dominate and win against anyone 

Absolutely. Absolutely. Also, I thought...I do t know if you play golf, but "Par" is actually a pretty great result. Play an entire round in Par and anyone would be delighted.

So if that was what you originally took umbrage with then it's actually a compliment.

2 minutes ago, mozo said:

It would be very funny if Birmingham went down

As they're a client of mine I'd selfishly really quite like them to stay up for budget-preservation reasons. I can understand that no one else cares about this though!

1 minute ago, mozo said:

 

Well according to many on this forum, Manning's City can't break down the lesser teams. Then we beat Plymouth, Blackburn, Swansea and now Rotherham (maybe Stoke next week), and the new criticism is that the opponents aren't good enough.

I can't speak for others but I don't think I have personally ever said we cannot break down "lesser" teams.

I think we've had issues breaking down conservative, defensive teams that sit in with a low block. A team can be low down the league table playing any style of it's not got the players to do it. None of the teams you mention are that kind of "low block team" either, so I see no real surprise in losing to Sheffield Wednesday and QPR, but beating Plymouth and Blackburn. This was an issue under the previous regime as well as the current one so it's, in my opinion, an issue with the squad rather than the coaching staff.

Regardless, we're currently playing a team that was relegated weeks ago, has conceded almost 2 a game whilst scoring less than 1 a game, and is roundly heralded as one of the worst teams in the Championship for many a season. They've also rested their one good player - their goalkeeper.

An easy 2-0 is a decent, but expected, result. We've done it without really breaking a sweat, and that's to be applauded.