ExiledAjax

38 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

The Huddersfield Vs Birmingham game means not both can over take many teams. That game is massive as I don't see a lot of points going to those 5 who are fighting to go down. In fact , the only points that are likely to go to any of them is that game.
I can see a draw at Huddersfield keeping a spawny Brum up again

 

 

Rotherham - Done

Interesting.

I see Plymouth having a chance of a point or even 3 in both their games. Edit. Hmmmm. Actually do I? They were limp as against us and it's the win v Leicester keeping them safe atm. Maybe no.

Wednesday I think are capable of getting something at Sunderland, but although WBA are in the playoffs with little threat of finishing outside of them, I think WBA come out on top there.

Birmingham's last game will likely have nothing on it for Norwich, and they may even rest up ahead of the playoffs.

Huddersfield have a horrid last two games. Fail to beat Birmingham and I think their in big trouble.

So I think I'd cautiously predict Plymouth +1, Wednesday +1, Birmingham +4 (beating Huddersfield), and Huddersfield +0.

So... Birmingham 50, Plymouth 49, and they survive. Relegation for Sheff Wed on 48, and Huddersfield on 46.

But the massive variable is, as you say, that game between Huddersfield and Birmingham. If that goes the other way then the way I have it Huddersfield stay up on 49 and Birmingham go down on 47.

5 minutes ago, TV Tom said:

Possibly right but if Brum beat Hudd’ Plymouth get 1 point and Weds’ get one victory they” ll go above Blackburn !!!!
Plymouth to be relegated is 8/1 with the bookies, I might have a bit of that, they could drop into the bottom three next weekend

Use your money how you like. But that's a pretty specific set of results you need to get Blackburn into trouble. I reckon it's most likely to be two of Huddersfield, Birmingham and Sheff Weds.

5 minutes ago, TV Tom said:

Blackburn aren’t safe with games against Leicester & Cov’

I think Blackburn stay up. I don't see 3 teams getting to 49 and with better GD. Birmingham playing Huddersfield gives the teams already clear a big advantage.

So even if Blackburn don't get a single point more, I think they'll be just about ok.

If QPR and Sheffield Wednesday stay up and Birmingham go down then we can conclude that changing manager sometimes works and sometimes doesn't.

14 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I can’t be sure when exactly the ball was played, but there is a good case for Sains being onside.  Lines tried to be drawn in perspective and from t-shirt line.

The hand (which doesn’t count) and camera angle don’t help.

As away fans we were right in line with it. I didn't think it was offside, didn't hear many grumbles from people around me either. So live, and with a decent view, I think the consensus was that it was good.

Ps. Norwich have this big moveable, turnable flat screen for replays. The don't turn it to the away fans but it looked pretty good.

15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I enjoyed today, whether it was better than Leicester is up for debate.  Happily give LM and players credit today, good job done.

I thought it was better than Leicester. I agree with @joe jordans teeth that yesterday was a more even and consistent performance across the 90 minutes. We matched Norwich nicely and I think there were fewer "oh shit" moments.

It was a nice performance yesterday, an away draw is always a good result. But I still think we'll need to be slightly better to properly challenge for a top 6 spot.

1 minute ago, mozo said:

I disagree. I think if we hit the levels shown today every game next season, we get in the playoffs. 

Unfortunately, getting the players to consistently hit the levels is incredibly difficult.

Cool. It's absolutely fine to disagree. 

I enjoyed the game and thought it was a fair result.

2 hours ago, mozo said:

You've got very high standards if that was just OK!

Yeh, I think high standards are needed if the ambition is to do what Norwich have done this season and get 70+ points. 

Whilst I thought we played fine today, fine being just that - totally acceptable and ok - I don't think that playing like we did today, over a season, would see us likely to get top 6, which is what I was responding to in your post.

And yeh, I think Norwich were a bit off their game today. I watched it with a Norwich fan, he said the same. 

I'm not downplaying the result, it's a good result, it was a decent performance, but it doesn't make me think we're looking sharp enough for top 6 next season.

19 minutes ago, mozo said:

Wagner said pre-match that he thinks we could be challenging for top 6 next season, and today backs that up. 

Not sure I agree really. We played ok, at times we were on top, but equally I don't think Norwich were on top of their game. I also didn't see us impose ourselves on the game consistently. I said earlier in the season that I think our performances are basically defined by the opposition, and I think that happened today.

I thought we were good but I didn't see much to increase my feelings of top 6 next season.

All happy I guess. We played nicely, Norwich basically got themselves 6th. Everyone shakes hands and does the summer.

This is absolutely fine. 

What the ******* hell was that?

8 hours ago, DaveF said:

Of course they do, if they lose tomorrow and Hull win their game and their game in hand they're level on points...

...but probably still 6th, with both teams yet to play twice.

Do Norwich have a lot to play for? It's pretty unlikely that Hull catch them even with a game in hand.

1 hour ago, petehinton said:

This has all the makings of them doing a total 180 on it

I'm not sure they can do that quickly and easily. This isn't like the Super League, which was an idea/proposal, this has been approved. Presumably board meetings have been held, and I assume some sort of contract ahs been signed by the PL and FA regarding the extra £33m of funding. Not impossible to unravel, but there won't be a clause in that contract (assuming there is one) that says "you can terminate this if it turns out that fans and League 2 clubs hate it". So it could see a U-turn but it's going to be more complicated than what we saw with the Super League.

1 minute ago, LondonBristolian said:

Watched the press conference and Wagner is in favour.

Essentially the person who made it has got confused - it should be Norwich in favour and not us. 

Thanks for doing the work. I'd also argue that Wagner is not Norwich. Manager opinions should be treated with caution as they won't necessarily represent the views of their club's owners/board members. It's not the managers who attend EFL general meetings.

18 minutes ago, northsomersetred said:

City in favour according to this spreadsheet and page

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/119dSeHfdaXguSElRMRA2xTmQm8M8aP0iMjxq7H4JQuU/edit?pli=1#gid=0

 

Based on Norwich's press conference from yesterday? I don't buy it. If ever there was a time for "I don't believe it until I see it on the OS", it's now.

4 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Here we go!

 

Any statement that starts with the words "...wishes to clarify further..." is going to be a banger.

Copied out here for those who don't use Twitter (currently known as 'X').

"The EFL wishes to clarify further its position in respect of yesterday’s Premier League and Football Association bi-lateral announcement over the removal of FA Cup replays and the role of the League’s representatives on the Professional Game Board (PGB). 

The agreement which now sees the abolition of replays from the competition format was agreed solely between the Premier League and FA.  Ahead of the deal being announced there was no agreement with the EFL nor was there any formal consultation with EFL Clubs as members of the FA and participants in the competition.  

In September 2023, the EFL did initially discuss with Clubs potential changes to the FA Cup format but only as part of a wider and more fundamental change to financial distributions. As is now clear, there has been no movement in this area since September.

This latest agreement between the Premier League and the FA, in the absence of financial reform, is just a further example of how the EFL and its Clubs are being marginalised in favour of others further up the pyramid and that only serves to threaten the future of the English game.  

The EFL today calls on both the Premier League and the FA, as the Governing body, to re-evaluate their approach to their footballing partnership with the EFL and engage more collaboratively on issues directly affecting our Clubs.

A separate issue is the role of the EFL representatives on the Professional Game Board (PGB) in agreeing to the 2024/25 overall fixture calendar. PGB is there to make technical decisions across the game as opposed to key policy decisions such as competition changes or formats.

Any decisions taken on the calendar involving EFL representatives are in no way an endorsement of the joint deal agreed between the FA and Premier League that imposes changes to the FA Cup competition format in isolation.

As part of the discussions the EFL representatives did challenge the position and were told that Clubs would be comfortable with no replays. They were effectively advised that, as a result, of it being an FA competition, the fixture list needed to be agreed as presented. It is also important to note that this matter was not discussed by the FA Cup committee, a separate group that oversees the competition across the professional and national game."

Not the strongest statement perhaps, but they are trying to make it crystal clear that the actual decision is a PL/FA one, yes they may have been consulted widely, but they linked it to a "New Deal", which as they say hasn't even been on the table from the PL for months.

They had to address this PGB issue as well, this is a bit weak there imo, although that final paragraph opens us up for a couple more statements from the FA!

Just now, exAtyeoMax said:

Good grief! What a sad bunch of weak, wet blankets they are. There are other teams apart from the top 6 in the prem. No wonder football has gone to shite.

One man's cowardice is another's pragmatism.

3 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

The Gas have made a statement. 

Oh thank god. It'll all be sorted out soon in that case! Close the thread. Gorringe and Al Qadi have it handled.

Joking aside, there's no doubt that within the EFL the Championship teams have the lion's share of the power. They also get the lion's share of the money that comes from the PL (including the precious parachute payments for those that make it up there). Also they're all hoping to be a Premier League team in the future, and generally don't want to turn up to their first meeting after promotion and be told they're not welcome because they shot their mouth off when in the EFL. Short-sighted, stupid, petty, yes all of those, but reality.

They are generally a lot less chippy than your average L2 team.

6 minutes ago, Harry said:

Is there any comment from our club on this yet? 

No, and it looks like most Championship clubs are keeping their powder dry for now. I think Pompey are the highest ranked club to have put something out so far?

The EFL can't leave that FA statement unanswered and I expect the Championship are waiting to see what the EFL say next.

6 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Hmmm.  Need the EFL to make a statement now!

 

You know they're serious because they've USED ALL CAPS.

8 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

Yes. But they could have been manipulated/bullied into being silent

I think it's clear that at least some people at the EFL were aware of these changes, although perhaps not the full details of them, and had/have been promised that by allowing them they will get a better "New Deal".

This is a quote going round:

EFL chief executive Trevor Birch said: “Whilst the league had previously been involved in discussions over the future of the calendar, these were predicated on the agreement of a new financial deal with the Premier League for EFL clubs which has not progressed."

Now, call that manipulation if you like, I think it's possibly an example of naive negotiation on the EFLs part.

20 minutes ago, exAtyeoMax said:

 

 

It depends a little on how that board of 8 approve decisions. If the chair has a casting vote then it's possible that all 4 EFL members voted no, but the decision was carried with the 4 PL members voting yes, and the Chair breaking the deadlock with his casting vote.

If that was the case though I'd have thought the EFL/Parry et al would have put out a statement noting their dissent. 

Just now, Davefevs said:

Sounds like you’re the man for the job…assuming you’d take a pay cut!

3 days a week for £130k...it's tempting  

If anyone is keen for a new job. Would be great to have a City fan in there:

Role details – Independent Football Regulator - Chair – Apply for a public appointment – GOV.UK (apply-for-public-appointment.service.gov.uk)