Mr Popodopolous

Putting aside my theories and occasional predictions of doom. Surely today is accounts day?? Fortnight from Fans Forum or just over. ? Granted technically not needed until end of February 2023 but end of the week...would be strange to submit on weekend?? If all is well and all is signed off as far as possible in respect of our P&S claims I'd be rushing them out.

Thanks both. Found an interesting quick read on it below, about to read it myself. https://www.scoutedhub.com/post/design-a-stunning-blog Said they had two scouts in France based on a quick read. Do wonder if Louis-Jean could have been that bridge, given his knowledge of the English and French game.

Their data based model has always been of interest to me. I have read too that it's a mix of traditional scouting and data? I wonder how some of those, perhaps Benrahma and Maupay to take an examples were sourced etc.

Brentford Benrahma- summer 2017, £1.8m Maupay, summer 2017, £1.6m Us Diedhiou, summer 2017- £5-5.5m The Brentford two were younger as well...and went for good to large fees.

Brentford are a good example actually because I looked the other day at a few of their signings in the same period in which we were spending bigger than now certainly. Benrahma and Maupay cost less than Diedhiou fee wise. Not individually but as a collective. I know we were linked with Watkins but were Benrahma or Maupay (both French based) on our radar at all??

Agree with chunks of this. He hasn't or rather those he has entrusted to spend haven't, spent so wisely at times. Possibly too stuck at the wrong times and twisted at others! January 2008 is a good example of when a bigger push might have got us over the line. Likewise we arguably could have gone a bit bigger in January 2019- another CM and example striker for depth wouldn't have gone amiss for example. We were not far from the playoffs that year...not far at all. We were in a comfortable FFP position and that didn't even include the sale of Kelly which came in mid May 2019. In theory we could really have gone for it in 2019-20 or 2020-2021, talking a do it in one gambling that it would be enough to see us over the line. Had we stuck another £20m (wages, loan fees plus amortisation) into one of these seasons might we have gone up? Well we'll never know and the consequences if not would have been dire! Otoh we spent increasing amounts predicated on buoyant and perhaps rising transfer profits. That was reckless to say the least!!

In the case of Hull, the owner was clawing back debt over the years, unsure how much without checking years worth of accounts. Ever since the fans turned on him for Hull City Tigers idea, the taps went off somewhat and he started getting his loans repaid. I guess Mel Morris wrote off his at Derby, and in any event him putting them into administration may have forced his hand somewhat.

Trust me, look at some other clubs be they of a similar profile, yoyo the latter higher profile to see how much shares and cash can be poured in! This isn't the same as revenue of course but some of these can make SL look a bit of a pauper at times timeframe wise! This is fair but there are no guarantees in this industry. I still stand by my view that there might have been an FFP issue had we signed Maguire and Gray at that time, the numbers give some indication that it could have been possible. Cotts himself could have shown a bit more patience in year 1, toughed it out and revenue naturally would have risen in 2016-17 which would have benefited him and not Lee Johnson (revenue up £7m in 2016-17 from 2015-16).

Partly yes, partly no IMO. Some of this was on infrastructure for a start and beyond that, while he did pay for his mistakes on the pitch, indeed still is the truth is that the Championship is also a horribly expensive business if you have ambitions to be up the top end. Not even talking wage bill but the amount of cash needed just to sustain in a lot of cases. A lot of Championship clubs truly burn through cash. (There is also a belief among some that the infrastructure investment is for his ultimate profit but that's another debate). Then again there are clubs who do a lot more with less so it's a tough one.

Good post. I'd also argue that he didn't get the best out of Nagy, Massengo, Wells. Arguably but less clearcut, could have deployed players such as Kalas, Benkovic DaSilva, Henriksen, Eliasson better in his final year too. Surely Moore in a back 3 had he not loaned him out could have enabled a bit of a higher line? Was unlucky with Afobe of course, which in turn knocked Palmer down a notch as he was only really looking the part when playing behind Weimann and Afobe. Losing DaSilva for half a season didn't help either, think Kalas and Nagy both got medium term injuries quite early and Smith of course was in an injury hit spell over a year or 2 which pushed into 2019-20. Do agree with this post overall though, and crucially the two seasons in q ie 2017/18 and even 2018-19 we had some strong Cup run/big Cup tie experience through the squad which would have served us well in the playoffs. Consider: 2018-19- Reached Round 5 of the FA Cup, beating (relegation bound) Huddersfield of the PL and losing narrowly but playing very well 2nd half to top 7 PL Wolves. 2017-18- Enough said really! The run spoke for itself. 2016-17- 4th Round League Cup, won our 3rd Round tie FA Cup. 2015-16- Okay we went out of both early but nearly beat WBA of the PL away, almost in fact. 2014-15- FA Cup, 4th Round in which we played and perhaps should have beaten West Ham! Won the JPT too of course, trip to Wembley is useful experience. 2013-14- JPT again one game in particular- 19k in a Bristol derby early in the season, big Cup tie atmosphere for a relatively small competition. Plus we beat (newly promoted to PL) Crystal Palace in the League Cup. Fielding, Flint, Smith, Pack, Bryan, Reid- these were all here in 2013 and still by 2017-18 still indeed most were mainstays, invaluable experience to fall back on! I know Reid's path was more mixed. Brownhill of course too...joined 2016 but did he feature in the relatively okay 4th Round run in 2016-17? Certainly in the run of 2017-18! Wright joined January 2017 but was a regular in THAT run of 5 seasons ago. Magnússon only joined in 2016 but he may have had experience of the reasonable run in 2016-17 too. By 2018-19, of course Flint, Magusson, Bryan and Reid had gone but we still had Fielding and the midfield duo plus Brownhill taking a more prominent role..Wright was still on the books. Overall not just ability wise, but Cup run nous transferable to play-offs, the time to strike really was in one of those two seasons.

Others include Ramsdale summer 2021 (relegated again, big money again), Buendia just ahead of promotion. Unsure but maybe one or both of Danjuma from Bournemouth and Pereira from West Brom went for 8 figure fees but arguably all of these again PL players who happened to play for Championship sides, especially Ramsdale and Pereira . Plus January 2021, Rodon to Tottenham, Grant to West Brom for 8 figure fees.

Another issue arguably for our defence, I think we ran out of players who could command the top or even medium to top range fees (by our standards at our level). Summer 2020 Bellingham, Cash, Eze, Benrahma and Watkins. Just checked and am still checking and you can add Ramsdale, Ake and Wilson but tbh they were PL players who just had just dropped a division. Godfrey another but again as above! Estuapen, Doucoure and Pererya but again PL players who happened to play in a relegated side and Udinese in the case of Pererya. Summer 2021 Collins and Armstrong. All went for 8 figure fees, probably more than these did too? If we want to go a little lower Olise? What did Bogle go for in summer 2020 too?

Agreed on this bit too. We are one of the worst hit without a doubt, one of the riskiest strategies too. At one stage it was mooted that 7-8 were in the same boat of course...Fulham and Nottingham Forest, maybe even Bournemouth going up helped some or all of these without doubt! Cardiff and Birmingham depending on how the rules change could be of interest going into next season i.e a full 3 year cycle post Parachutes and just generally post Bellingham and Adams big sales in Birmingham'a case. Reading it sounds like they are on course to comply but surely a good sale necessary? Ongoing I guess. Stoke? Ongoing! I'm still a little more cautious with us and other clubs using certain add-backs, not so much for this moment but say the EFL assess all clubs in the Covid period, notice some major outliers and hire Independent Transfer experts to estimate the true hit to the market. They might come up with a different figure to ours, in the fullness of time and other clubs who tried it. That gap for some clubs could be one between compliance and a 'deemed breach', talking down the line tbh. Of course the fact we haven't signed any PL or indeed any loanees in 2 years would surely stand us in better stead, our subsequent conduct than say Fulham, Nottingham Forest or Stoke.

On a side note, I've just finished reading the Accounts thread from last year when 2020-21 Accounts were released. All 29 pages! Was quite interesting to note that contrary to say Waconda and their posts we actually posted the biggest losses in 2020-21 of all those at our level that season who released accounts for the year. One or two were close of course but...various reasons for it of course.

That's fair Dave, best to be cautious. I suppose my angle is, maybe it wouldn't go down well, but why he doesnt just say beyond alluding to it.. "The EFL have signed off these P&S Covid add-backs, both in a numerical and a methodological sense". I understand words matter of course..what sort of final green light that cannot be reviewed later if any, are we awaiting. Possibly if a supplier or sponsor went bust we may get some leeway. The forecast v definitive answer I'm looking for is a cast iron claim by us of EFL approval of our methods and numbers albeit perhaps unrealistic? I suppose the EFL don't really publicly comment but Gould possibly could confirm that the EFL are unequivocally satisfied.

The other bit which I forgot to add, the exact wording by Gould could he interesting or it could just be couching in diplomatic language. Interested to know what we all think. Certainly not accusing anyone of mistruths but it's not unequivocal or a crystal clear green light either. Carefully chosen words? "For this season we're not forecasting." Not forecasting sounds like a bit of a prediction albeit following presumably extensive talks with the EFL. "Aren't anticipating any problems this season." Can be taken in at least two ways. Again a bit of a prediction, belief rather than statement of outright fact. This season could also be taken, though appears not to be in respect of an attempt to deduct in-season or for numbers ending last season. 'We don't believe we've got a points deduction hanging over us." Again, "don't believe" is not we don't have or haven't got. An element of prediction or forecasting to this. "We are very confident there will not be a points deduction this year". "Very confident" and certainty are not the same. Further though it is theoretically possible to dock in the Spring of the existing season, what we are over £39m by the end of May 2023? What of next year? Ie 2023-24 and a deduction if we exceed limits to 2022-23. Wonder how big the lost transfer revenue that a) We put in is and b) That will be deemed acceptable is?

Well forget complicated calculations, Nixon has said he doesn't see it as a great issue for us!! ? Until the accounts are out, I might focus ON the pitch for a bit..I assumed they would have been out today however.

Thanks. The interesting thing about it is, though the Revenue is undoubtedly higher with the Bristol City Holdings, so too are the losses! Cost base must be higher in the case of Bristol City Holdings than the extra revenue, if that makes sense.

A reasonable squad, good to see Maddison in there...Maguire not so much. Wilson or Toney? Might have rather had the latter. Coady? Although I remember he was quite impressive for Wolves.

Two other observations. 1) When Gould referred to a decline in loss of £10m, I wonder if he was referring to the Club or Bristol City Holdings. I assume it was the latter but if it was the former maybe that loss would be lower than £28m. (Bristol City Holdings is the relevant entity for P&S). 2) I wonder what type of approval we got. Because if it came to a dispute down the track, that could be crucial as Procedural Defences got example Estoppel of various types, Legitimate Expectation among others were thrown out at IDCs which involved Derby and Sheffield Wednesday. Unsure which ones Birmingham used, without checking.

On the Reading front, sounds like they are complying and that they anticipate that their embargo/Business Plan will be lifted in the summer. Interesting line by Bowen, proves what I said about favours in the Loan market!! https://www.getreading.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/reading-fc-summer-transfer-window-25350909 Sounds like clubs or agents are being quite accommodating. When are we going to call in some favours in the loan market? For they are under embargo/Business Plan and have been since summer 2021 yet... 2021-22 Rahman and Drinkwater- Chelsea loan (hugely or wholly subsidised) Dele-Bashiru- Watford loan Loaned some young keeper from Arsenal in January too although tbh probably cheaper than Rafael. 2022-23 Rahman- Chelsea (Hugely or wholly subsidised) Hendrick- Newcastle (Read Newcastle covering 2/3 of his wages). Some young midfielder, Fornah- Nottingham Forest Some young or fringe midfielder, Loum- Porto Last two won't be especially costly.

Hopefully with this new emphasis on transparency, (d) will be the method of choice. Agreed on both counts although if it's only an additional £10m in say the Covid years then averaged out then that would give us £5m or so extra to play with this season. I am still banking on a bit of a 'safety in numbers' approach as if only a few clubs have done it...well I would suggest the EFL would have grounds to commission their own research and thereafter the chips will fall where they may. It's not as if there has been any outright or cast iron confirmation that this method has been accepted as a concept (not talking club specific), hinted at yes...

Brighton I can give you as an unusual example. Got relegated from the top flight in 1981-82, attendances middling yo low, Goldstone sold by hated owner, played at Gillingham for 2 years then at the Withdean for years. Promotion back to 2nd tier, out of top flight nearly as long as us, plus going to the Amex- suddenly averaging 20k!! Fairly unusual?

Putting aside the wider drugs debate, it DOES sound like football specific legislation AGAIN. Apologies if already covered in more depth.

Perhaps modern players have changed too, does that method work with them so well now? Not saying I'm opposed to it, but I wonder.