Interesting Article On City

[Loderingo]

ROBINS REMIND US OF BIGGER PICTUREBy Mike Holden

What constitutes a good season for Bristol City?

Should our verdict be judged purely on the size of a club and its resources, or should previous standards be taken into account and used as a benchmark of the minimum requirement?

It's only natural for anyone to seek improvement, if we don't strive to improve then we will never get better, but is it right to always expect more?

Attitudes in football have changed beyond all recognition over the last 20 years, and the last 10 years, even in the last five years. The demands being placed on managers are growing more intense with every passing season.

Indeed, we'd hardly be sticking our necks out if we were to assert that the job of football manager is now harder than it has ever been, and possibly harder than the top job in any other field of business due to the game's increased media exposure.

The situation is so bad that merely surviving in a job for two full seasons can be referred to as a great feat of individual success.

So as the second-longest-serving manager in the Championship, it's fair to say that Gary Johnson has been a success at Bristol City but now he is finding out that he isn't exempt from football and society's crazy culture for instant gratification.

Following a sequence of just two wins in 17 matches, Johnson has been under serious pressure lately with growing media speculation about his future amid unrest among the Ashton Gate faithful.

Suddenly, four years of almost continual progress count for nothing because results and performances over the past four months haven't quite been to the standards that the fans have come to expect - meaning that Johnson better justify himself with a run of good results, quick.

It's a ludicrous scenario, but let's look at the bigger picture here.

Bristol City have finished in the top half of the table two seasons running and, going into Sunday's televised clash with West Brom, they might have been languishing back in 16th position but they were still one of only two teams outside the top six still in single figures for number of games lost.

Okay, so they've been looking over the shoulder rather than upwards lately, but now one win further down the line, they've climbed back into the top half and currently sit equally distanced between the play-off positions and relegation zone with a six-point cushion on either side.

So what do these fans expect?

If expectations are based on history, resources, support, virtually anything you care to mention, then Bristol City, with all due respect, are a long way back in the queue for those three promotion places at the end of any Championship season.

However, not only are these expectations unreasonable, they are contributing to the problem because the unnecessary pressure created by them is having a direct impact on the standards being set on the pitch. It's a vicious circle of negativity.

So instead of a stable, well-run, mid-table outfit being relaxed and possibly stretching themselves to over-achieve like they did two seasons ago, they're now consistently performing in a state of anxiety that is limiting their progress.

But, more to the point, this has an effect on how we view them as punters too.

As you probably know, I was required to write a preview of Sunday's game between Bristol City and West Brom and I tipped the Robins at 11/4, even though I knew they would be pretty friendless in the market against the division's most fashionable outfit.

I anticipated that the home win would be available at around 3/1 or 10/3 on the exchanges but they actually drifted much further and were matched at nearly 4/1 shortly before kick-off, although I must admit I found it extremely difficult to articulate why I fancied the home win.

For those who have never given our job much thought, there's no great mystery to it. The process of writing a betting preview is similar to that of placing a bet, first you trust your intuition to pick out the right selection and then you apply the narrative later.

However, on those occasions when your intuition believes a price to be wrong for no obvious reason based on recent events, you're presented with a problem because you find it virtually impossible to articulate a series of rational points to explain why the bet should be backed.

So whereas most value-seeking punters might casually say to themselves 'that looks wrong' and lump £10 or £20 on a bet thinking little of it, I have the thankless task of trying to back up the selection with solid reasoning without sounding like a mug.

As I've outlined many times in this column, I generally try to base my thoughts around managers and mood. But here was an occasion when I knew a price was wrong when the mood stank and the manager was being hampered in his attempts to do his job properly as a result of the pressure he was under.

Therefore, it required a leap of faith and my only ally was the bigger picture because it was difficult to make a case for Bristol City on any other grounds.

However, it just goes to remind us that the bigger picture is king when it comes to identifying value bets, it trumps all other explanations and those punters who can ignore the emotion of others to stay focused on the bigger picture are generally the ones who enjoy most success.

[grove park city]

Yeah all well and good for someone who proberly never pays to go to a match ,and no doubt surrounded by the corporate cosy set up when they do , typical of the hand your money over and shut up attitude of footballs ruling body and their various leeches eg Sky who have done more to distance the ordinary fan from the clubs than most. All this crap about the pressure on managers what about joe public what do they get if they are kicked out certainly not their contracts paid up /compensation a nice little stint on 5 live/Match of the day /sky pundit ect,most fans follow their clubs and have done for years putting a great deal pro-rata of their income into the various aspects of tickets,programmes ,club shirts,food,travel ,various club offshoots City World supporters trust ect. Its strange how Coppell,Curbs,Mark Hughes,Peter Reid,Paul Jewell ect seem to get by you don't exactly hear of them signing on at the Job Centre Plus .

[Guest DanC]

Our wage bill is the highest it has ever been, Think I remember reading it is up there in the top 10 in this league or something. The resources are there as is the ambition, However despite have arguably one of our most talented squads ever we have been dire especially at home.

[spudski]

I think the writer of the initial post makes some very valid points.

It is a well thought out piece and makes obvious sense to me.

It makes a lot more sense than a lot of the posts on this forum, where for weeks people are calling for the managers head, then one good performance against WBA, and it seems we're World beaters.

It'll all be different again after the Ipswich game.

[Daniro]

It is an interesting article and makes some good points. You don't get the impression, however, that the writer had actually ever seen City play this season. There may be some truth in the idea that the team were feeling the pressure and performance was dropping as a result, but as Grove Park points out these people are paid quite a lot of money to turn up to a football match once or twice a week. At this level you would surely expect a hell of a lot more than we were being dished up in terms of effort, commitment, tactics and skill.

I don't think anyone who actually saw the 0-6 defeat would say that the fans were being overly harsh on GJ or the team.

WBA showed us what we are capable of and also what we have the right to expect, week in week out.

[Tim S]

I think the writer, from an outside point of view makes some excellent points.

To many Bristol City fans we have progressed well under Gary Johnson and by delivering success he has there for set a benchmark to progress further from. Unfortunately for Gary Johnson, in our first season in the Championship we were too successful for our own good and by getting to the Play Off final in that first season it set expectations for the fans very high for the next few seasons.

The writer is also correct in stating that under Gary Johnson we have moved forward constantly and we should not let 4 years of hard work and progress be decided by a sticky patch of just a few months.

Looking back as a fan, after the Cardiff result I was questioning Gary Johnson and wondering if he has taken the club as far as he can and Im sure I wasnt alone. But its amazing the difference a few weeks make in football.

The big thing for me to question Gary Johnsons position was the players who didnt seem to have the commitment for the cause that I had seen in our first season in the Championship. In the Cardiff game I wondered if the players had even turned up and for me, its Gary Johnson that has to inspire that fight in the players to go out onto the pitch and give it there all. Had the players given up wanting to play for Gary Johnson?? Well, the Leicester game showed that the fight was still there, the players gave their all and showed they do still want to play for the manager. The West Brom game cemented that opinion for me. The players were fantastic, their attitude was great and it was a delight to see the fight and desire back in the players. We could have lost that game for all I cared, for me it was just important to see the players with the right attitude which for me, is the main thing that has been missing.

[SC_Red]

Our wage bill is the highest it has ever been, Think I remember reading it is up there in the top 10 in this league or something. The resources are there as is the ambition, However despite have arguably one of our most talented squads ever we have been dire especially at home.

Can you name the 14 clubs you think pay less wages than City?

[Tim S]

Can you name the 14 clubs you think pay less wages than City?

Ill have a go with as many as I can from the Championship.....

Swansea

Blackpool

Coventry

Barnsley

Doncaster

Watford

S****horpe

Plymouth

Peterborough

Thats 9 there - and Swansea and Coventry are gonna be very close to ours though so wasnt sure if to include them.

[Red_Mat]

WBA showed us what we are capable of and also what we have the right to expect, week in week out.

We have the right to beat the automatic promotion contenders every week?! So that would make us top, right?

So, let me get this straight, you're basically saying we have the right to expect to be top?!

I'm afraid the only thing we have the right to expect, once we've paid our money, is a game of football. And even that's at the discretion of the referee and the weather.

[Tim S]

We have the right to beat the automatic promotion contenders every week?! So that would make us top, right?

So, let me get this straight, you're basically saying we have the right to expect to be top?!

I'm afraid the only thing we have the right to expect, once we've paid our money, is a game of football. And even that's at the discretion of the referee and the weather.

We dont have the right to beat anybody. No team does.

The only thing as a fan I want to see is the players giving 100% and showing effort and commitment and at least trying to play football well. Win, Lose or Draw thats all I ask of the players. Thats what had been missing upto and including the Cardiff game, and to an extent the Sheffield Utd game. But now the players seem to have that commitment back - as long as they have that, thats all I can ask of them.

The rest of football is unpredictable - especially this season in the Championship. Anybody really can beat anybody else. The only right teams have in football is chance. The CHANCE to play well, get lucky, score a cracking goal. Its all chance.

[SC_Red]

Ill have a go with as many as I can from the Championship.....

Swansea

Blackpool

Coventry

Barnsley

Doncaster

Watford

S****horpe

Plymouth

Peterborough

Thats 9 there - and Swansea and Coventry are gonna be very close to ours though so wasnt sure if to include them.

thats probably not a bad guess. I think Watford will be higher than us though.

[Nibor]

Can you name the 14 clubs you think pay less wages than City?

You'd be very surprised how high up the wage table we are.

Clubs that pay less are:

Swansea

Leicester

Cardiff

Blackpool

Coventry

Barnsley

Doncaster

Watford

Preston

S****horpe

Sheffield Wednesday

Palace

Plymouth

Peterborough

We're likely to be spending about the same as Ipswich and Derby - around the £11-12m mark on payroll.

We spent £8.6m in 08-09 and since then we've brought in:

Sno

Hartley

Clarkson

Haynes

Nyatanga

Gerken

Velicka

JCR

Saborio

Agyemang

We've done a few contract renewals and the only real earners to move on were John, McIndoe and Adebola.

We are also fairly big spenders on transfers.

The data on other clubs is out there if you go hunting with google.

[elhombrecito]

I find it hard to disagree with the majority of that article, he makes a lot of absolutely valid points. We have had four years of almost continual improvement under Gary Johnson and of course we have no right to expect that to continue. But of course, what the writer probably doesn't realise is that the club itself (Lansdown, Johnson etc) has built up this expectation by stating at the beginning of the season that the aim was automatic promotion, therefore it's understandable that the fans wouldn't be happy with a possible relegation struggle. Saying that, I don't see how we could benefit from getting rid of Johnson anytime soon.

So yeah, decent article, and not far wrong.

[SC_Red]

You'd be very surprised how high up the wage table we are.

Clubs that pay less are:

Swansea

Leicester

Cardiff

Blackpool

Coventry

Barnsley

Doncaster

Watford

Preston

S****horpe

Sheffield Wednesday

Palace

Plymouth

Peterborough

We're likely to be spending about the same as Ipswich and Derby - around the £11-12m mark on payroll.

We spent £8.6m in 08-09 and since then we've brought in:

Sno

Hartley

Clarkson

Haynes

Nyatanga

Gerken

Velicka

JCR

Saborio

Agyemang

We've done a few contract renewals and the only real earners to move on were John, McIndoe and Adebola.

We are also fairly big spenders on transfers.

The data on other clubs is out there if you go hunting with google.

Is this fact or a guess?

[Keep the Faith]

You'd be very surprised how high up the wage table we are.

Clubs that pay less are:

Swansea

Leicester

Cardiff

Blackpool

Coventry

Barnsley

Doncaster

Watford

Preston

S****horpe

Sheffield Wednesday

Palace

Plymouth

Peterborough

We're likely to be spending about the same as Ipswich and Derby - around the £11-12m mark on payroll.

We spent £8.6m in 08-09 and since then we've brought in:

Sno

Hartley

Clarkson

Haynes

Nyatanga

Gerken

Velicka

JCR

Saborio

Agyemang

We've done a few contract renewals and the only real earners to move on were John, McIndoe and Adebola.

We are also fairly big spenders on transfers.

The data on other clubs is out there if you go hunting with google.

Asuming this information is correct then it shows that anything outside the top 10 is surely underachievement? It doesn't matter where you've come from if you are spending more than the majority of the clubs in the league then you are underperforming if you are below them. Currently we are right in the middle. At the end of the season if we are still there then it will be a season of underacheivement as we will have finished below several clubs spending far less than us and above very few (if any) clubs spending more.

If we finish in the middle then Johnson will be safe for another year but it will not have been a season of achievement but of slight underachievement. He'll get another chance and if he underachieves again then his position will come under threat. If we continue to be in the play-offs in terms of money spent on wages and transfers but not in terms of position then he will be consistently underachieving and we will proably have to look at a change.

The interesting situation will be if we cut our wage bill due to our massive losses and therefore no longer feature near the top of the spending tables. In this situation you could justify that our expectations should be lower and therefore mid table would be about right. However, if it is Johnson's overspending that has lead to this scenario should he benfit from these lowered expectations and therefore be afer in his job as a result? You would think not.

[Nibor]

Is this fact or a guess?

My estimate of our current wage bill is an estimate based on the evidence in the post. The maths is easy and I think fairly conservative.

The list of clubs who pay less than us is based on their last financial results found using google and a few other sources - as factual as it can be without seeing accounts.

We are massively over investing at the moment.

Asuming this information is correct then it shows that anything outside the top 10 is surely underachievement? It doesn't matter where you've come from if you are spending more than the majority of the clubs in the league then you are underperforming if you are below them. Currently we are right in the middle. At the end of the season if we are still there then it will be a season of underacheivement as we will have finished below several clubs spending far less than us and above very few (if any) clubs spending more.

If we finish in the middle then Johnson will be safe for another year but it will not have been a season of achievement but of slight underachievement. He'll get another chance and if he underachieves again then his position will come under threat. If we continue to be in the play-offs in terms of money spent on wages and transfers but not in terms of position then he will be consistently underachieving and we will proably have to look at a change.

The interesting situation will be if we cut our wage bill due to our massive losses and therefore no longer feature near the top of the spending tables. In this situation you could justify that our expectations should be lower and therefore mid table would be about right. However, if it is Johnson's overspending that has lead to this scenario should he benfit from these lowered expectations and therefore be afer in his job as a result? You would think not.

I actually don't think we should measure achievement directly against our spend. It's a bit too simplistic. We have to pay more to attract players than a bigger club would for example as they would see more potential there. We also have to pay more than a northern club is expected to.

I just think it's important that people forget the "little ole Bristol City" mentality portrayed in that rather lazy article - the chairman is showing massive ambition with spending and we have to make sure that there is the right level of pressure on. Not a ludicrous amount - where people expect promotion - but enough that we don't give ourselves easy excuses for not moving forwards at a steady rate.

[Daniro]

We have the right to beat the automatic promotion contenders every week?! So that would make us top, right?

So, let me get this straight, you're basically saying we have the right to expect to be top?!

I'm afraid the only thing we have the right to expect, once we've paid our money, is a game of football. And even that's at the discretion of the referee and the weather.

No. That's not what I meant at all, as I think you must surely recognise. We have the right to expect a certain level of commitment and quality. If I just want to watch a game of football I could go to the Downs on a Saturday and save myself £400 a year. SL, who owns the club, is a businessman and he will therefore be very clear about what his customers' rights are.

[WellRedPhil]

I think the writer, from an outside point of view makes some excellent points.

That sums it up for me. The things that annoys me about these articles is they haven't watched us play week in week out, so it's hard for them to give a balanced account. We've clearly been pretty dire for well over a year now and our home form has been terrible. We appear to have lost our motivation and concenration and tactically we have been poor. But from an outside perception we're ding well, so articles like this are all well and good, but they're not exactly accurate based on expenditure and performances over a sustained period of time. Hopefully the West Brom result will kick start our season, and we'll finish the season strongly with a very positive attitude. However, I thought that after the Preston game and also after the result at the Walkers so I'm not getting carried away just yet!

[Alex_BCFC]

our home form has been terrible.

Not really. Just 2 defeats this season. If you mean home performances then I agree but the problem is more the away form with just 2 wins on the road since Reading last year.

[nebristolred]

Our wage bill is the highest it has ever been, Think I remember reading it is up there in the top 10 in this league or something. The resources are there as is the ambition, However despite have arguably one of our most talented squads ever we have been dire especially at home.

I'd be absolutely shocked if that's true tbh.

[red panda]

A very good article. I think this thread is getting into too much detail on wages - there have been so many examples over the years to show that you cannot buy success simply by throwing money at a team. You need a mixture of skill, patience and luck. We haven't had much of the third, and almost none of the second.

How many of us can say that we never have a bad day at the office? Certainly not me. And I don't have 15000 people looking over my shoulder and groaning every time I type something incorrectly, or my direct competitors working in the same office as me and doing everything they can to make me perform as poorly as possible.

[NiceRed]

[Coach]

I know of the guy who wrote this piece. He is a Man City fan who lives in Spain so would probably only see matches on the TV. However, he is incredibly knowledgable about football, including the lower leagues, and while people may say oh, he hasn't had to endure the rubbish City have served up, it does just reiterate for me the need to sometimes step back out of the fire occasionally and look at the bigger picture. I'm sure 99% of outsiders would be absolutely astounded that anyone should be calling for GJ's head given where the club has gone since he took charge.

[Nibor]

I heard from very senior player that we are the 18th highest players in our league, which would seem to contradict you. However, I did wonder at the time how he knew that, so there is obviously the possibility that his facts are wrong (maybe another player's agent spreading rumours trying to engineer a move etc) and that you are right. In any case, since we can't prove the facts 100% either way, it's pointless arguing.

18th may well have been accurate in our first season, I could prove it isn't now by googling a few clubs financial results.

[Red_Mat]

18th may well have been accurate in our first season, I could prove it isn't now by googling a few clubs financial results.

I'd be up for seeing that...

A full break down on players wages, taking into account the number of players in the squad, etc., and transfer fees - as I would imagine many clubs have spent far more than us, despite paying players less.

I'll expect your full report on my desk in the morning, Nibor.

[WellRedPhil]

Not really. Just 2 defeats this season. If you mean home performances then I agree but the problem is more the away form with just 2 wins on the road since Reading last year.

Yeah I was referring to perfomances over the last year, that's why I said how from an outside look it may look ok but if you've actually been watching it's been pretty terrible. Sorry if I didn't make that clear but yes our away form has been appalling over the last 12 months with only 2 away wins in that time after Reading! And up until that point it had been very good for the 18 months or so we had been competing in the Championship.

[Tales From The Front]

whether you agree with the article or not, what is apparent a I see it, is that Sunday's performance was far superior then we have had this season, the mananager also belives that to be the case.

Thing is if you buy into the general content of the arcticle i.e. look at the clubs history and achievements then we should not have even been on the same pitch as WBA. The reality is we are and showed that we can compete. If that was down to the TV coverage I dont know, but in fairness to the manager and the team we did see an improvement against Leicester which was carried on.

What Sunday also showed me is that the team and or the manager had lost there way, but on Sunday at least City returned to doing what they did best in the first season back in the Championship, closed down quickly, high tempo and work rate, passed the ball in the main on the deck and used width effectively. None of which has been used to any great extent this season, hopefully this has showed that this over the cause of a season more like to produce the winning formula.

Last Sunday we showed we can compete rather than make excuses as to why we cant, and the club as a whole I reckon is much the better for it.

[PFree]

It's a ludicrous scenario, but let's look at the bigger picture here...

For those who have never given our job much thought, there's no great mystery to it. The process of writing a betting preview is similar to that of placing a bet, first you trust your intuition to pick out the right selection and then you apply the narrative later.

Is it a ludicrous scenario?

All I want to see is players playing with pride, desire and passion and a Manager that can picks 11 players in their correct position and who wants to have a go - not just defend and survive? if this chappy has been to the Gate he would understand why I often drifted off during games as the entertainment was so dire?

Intuition is a strange thing - I almost put a bet on City to beat Baadiff and just didn't get round to it. Baadiff have a small squad who had played more games than us, we'd had a week off etc...and then that result happened?

For me actions speak louder than words and against Leicester and WBA, the desire and belief was back - long may it continue but I am concerned about season ticket renewals as this season has proved in the most part to be fairly non-eventful, and sadly, boring at the Gate.

[Whale Eye Beef Hooked]

18th may well have been accurate in our first season, I could prove it isn't now by googling a few clubs financial results.

Don't Cardiff pay Chopra £30k per week as well as Wittingham being on around 12k and Boothroyd on 15k. Ok they have a smaller squad but surely their wage bill is higher ??

[Kid in the Riot]

Don't Cardiff pay Chopra £30k per week as well as Wittingham being on around 12k and Boothroyd on 15k. Ok they have a smaller squad but surely their wage bill is higher ??

I'm sure I remember reading that Cardiff's wage bill was around £11 million for the 2008/09 season, definitely larger than ours was.

According to Deloitte's 2009 review of football, the total sum spent on wages in The Championship in the 2007/08 season was £291 million. That puts the average wage bill at over £12 million... I assume that figure would have risen last season and this season, so to me our £8 million budget doesn't seem that high. Of course the likes of Birmingham, Sunderland, West Brom will have pushed that average wage bill up with figures over £20 million I'd imagine.