semblar Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 I noticed Cotts saying after the Doncaster game "It's an 11 game season now." Probably it was a slip of the tongue but he said it twice in the interview on Player. The friendly interviewer did not pick him up on it, but it made me wonder if he's targeting promotion in 11 games. I think that's Preston away but my maths is not great. He's a meticulous planner and it just seemed odd that he said 11 games and not 14, or 15 with the JPT. Plus he's made it clear he wants the title and that might take a bit more than 11 games, as has been pointed out here. Its because Swindon, MK and Preston all have to play each other, so they cannot all get maximum points in those matches. If we otherwise match them over the next 11 games then it is impossible for two of them to overtake us before the end of the season. It shows that SC (or one of his staff) has a fairly reasonable grasp of the maths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 Both ways of looking at it are valid. Yes, of course what other teams do is important, but statistical evidence based on like total number of points needed is also useful in coming to conclusions. We know that no team with more than 91 points has ever failed to get automatic promotion, so it is not unreasonable to think that 92 will PROBABLY be enough. You're talking probables, which I can accept. But talking in absolutes, like this statement..... 90 points will do it guys. Forget any other permutation. 23 points required. Keep it simple. ....is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ollywhyte Posted February 26, 2015 Report Share Posted February 26, 2015 90 points will do it guys. Forget any other permutation. 23 points required. Keep it simple. Iv'e predicted... Preston - 92 MK Dons - 90 Sheff Utd - 83 Swindon - 81 If we finished on that magical 90, we may well miss out on goal difference! It's ridiculous to set point targets, aim to win every single game we play and see where it takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted March 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not a chance. Ummmmmm, any takers now ???!!!!! It's still on boys. COYR's !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucksred Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Would be awesome to get promoted against the mooooooonrakers, specially if we can **** up their promotion chances. Nice thought. Exceedingly unlikely though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roe Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looking slightly more possible now! We'd need a 13 point gap going into the game and as we currently have 11 to third we only need to gain 2 more points on MK and Swindon in the next 6 matches. Sod it, we can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted March 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Would be awesome to get promoted against the mooooooonrakers, specially if we can **** up their promotion chances. Nice thought. Exceedingly unlikely though Not that unlikely. 4 wins and 2 draws will mean a win against Swindle will put us on 90 points with just 5 games remaining. We are currently 11 clear of 3rd and there is every chance with upcoming fixtures that we could be at least 15 clear at end of play on 7th April. Just saying like !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roe Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's nice that it's put back to the Tuesday now because we'll know the other results before we play then as well. Still a month to go before that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Cyril Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 aim to win every single game we play and see where it takes us. If we did that and didn't go up I would feel a bit cheated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lets for argument sake say we are 7 pts clear. If we won six and drew two, we would then be 27 points ahead.We would need to be 16 points clear to be promoted. That would mean two of MK, Preston and Swindon failing to get 11 points from eight.As I was dismissive of this, the maths:To be promoted at the Swindon match we need to be 16 points clear of third place at final whistle (assuming we all have 5 games left at that stage).Its almost a given if we beat Swindon that we would be over them. We would then need to take 5 more points out of MK over the next 7 games.If we maintain our form, its moved to the 'possible' certainly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 highly doubt it will happen, we will lose again for sure, Bradford and Gillingham look tough, Crawley away will be hard, Yeovil will raise their game vs us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChippenhamRed Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 highly doubt it will happen, we will lose again for sure, Bradford and Gillingham look tough, Crawley away will be hard, Yeovil will raise their game vs us. Blimey bit negative on a night like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted March 3, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 As I was dismissive of this, the maths: To be promoted at the Swindon match we need to be 16 points clear of third place at final whistle (assuming we all have 5 games left at that stage). Its almost a given if we beat Swindon that we would be over them. We would then need to take 5 more points out of MK over the next 7 games. If we maintain our form, its moved to the 'possible' certainly! Yessssssssssss ! That'll do for me. Hopefully this thread will resurface again in 3/4 games time and the word 'possible' will be replaced by 'almost'. Here's hoping ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUTOR Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 highly doubt it will happen, we will lose again for sure, Bradford and Gillingham look tough, Crawley away will be hard, Yeovil will raise their game vs us. Really? I don't think much can stop us now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shelton’s Love Gravy Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 highly doubt it will happen, we will lose again for sure, Bradford and Gillingham look tough, Crawley away will be hard, Yeovil will raise their game vs us. Bradford away tough I agree, but would fancy our chances in the other three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 It was incredibly unlikely at the time the thread was made, however it is certainly within the realms of possibility now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Orns Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 highly doubt it will happen, we will lose again for sure, Bradford and Gillingham look tough, Crawley away will be hard, Yeovil will raise their game vs us. We don't have Gillingham again, do we? I'm fed up with them, although suspect they are more fed up of us this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 We don't have Gillingham again, do we? I'm fed up with them, although suspect they are more fed up of us this season Beware the Ides of March, minus one day! The Gillingham team that will visit us on 14th March are a totally different proposition to the dummies we took candy from before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ten minutes of rough Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 highly doubt it will happen, we will lose again for sure, Bradford and Gillingham look toughest, Crawley away will be hard, Yeovil will raise their game vs us. Blimey if this is true and what about Preston away? I would settle for the play off's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingLear Posted March 4, 2015 Report Share Posted March 4, 2015 As amazing as it would be, although unlikely at this stage, if Swindon continue their awful form and teams below them go on a bit of a run, then conceiveably it could be the game that we knock them out of the play off places.....just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tins Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 This is looking more and more likely. If we win our next 4 games (Gills, Crewe, Barnsley & Oldham) then beat Swindon we will be up (well they can only match us on points). If they drop any more points then we can be up before this. Only Barnsley may be a banana skin in my opinion, but Swindon have MK Dons and Doncaster who will be tough, and Colchester who are fighting to stay up. Very exciting times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 This is looking more and more likely. If we win our next 4 games (Gills, Crewe, Barnsley & Oldham) then beat Swindon we will be up (well they can only match us on points). If they drop any more points then we can be up before this. Only Barnsley may be a banana skin in my opinion, but Swindon have MK Dons and Doncaster who will be tough, and Colchester who are fighting to stay up. Very exciting times! I thin Gills are a different prospect to previous games. Winning 7 on the spin would be fantastic but I can see a draw potentially two en route. However that would still put us on 87 and I think 90's is pretty certain to get you at least 2nd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 All three upcoming home games will be tough against in form sides, Gills and Barnsley while Crewe fighting to stay up will not be a pushover. There aren't any gimme games in this league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Running Man Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 We've just won 3 on the bounce away against sides "battling for their lives", we also won at Doncaster recently who have since moved into the play off spots. On our day we are the best team in this Division, no reason why we can't win the next 4 and do it against Swindon. Other teams are going to drop points, we may not need to win all 4 but I see no reason why we won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glynriley Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 We've just won 3 on the bounce away against sides "battling for their lives", we also won at Doncaster recently who have since moved into the play off spots. On our day we are the best team in this Division, no reason why we can't win the next 4 and do it against Swindon. Other teams are going to drop points, we may not need to win all 4 but I see no reason why we won't. Fixed, no need for those first 3 words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M_Porter Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 At this rate we will be up before before the swindle game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Orns Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 All three upcoming home games will be tough against in form sides, Gills and Barnsley while Crewe fighting to stay up will not be a pushover.There aren't any gimme games in this league. Oh, Mr Cidered, with our budget / resources, every game is an easy game. Ask any other manager in the league who have crumbled to the champions elect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 We've just won 3 on the bounce away against sides "battling for their lives", we also won at Doncaster recently who have since moved into the play off spots. On our day we are the best team in this Division, no reason why we can't win the next 4 and do it against Swindon. Other teams are going to drop points, we may not need to win all 4 but I see no reason why we won't. If we do, the problem might be we've clinched promotion before the Swindon game! Didn't we win promotion under Ward just before Good Friday (Grimsby lost?) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanatopia Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 One point against Crawley!? Cotterill out! Here is a reminder of what I predicted.. which is 2 pts less than where we are currently. Considering MK and others have slipped up in relation to us we could very well clinch promotion at Boundary Park now... no bother I am back for that one BRISTOL CITY H to Rochdale = 3 pts = 70pts A to L Orient = 3 = 73 A to Crawley = 1 = 74 A to Yeovil = 3 = 77 H to Gills = 1 = 78 H to Crewe = 3 = 81 H to Barnsley = 1 = 82 A to Oldham = 3 = 85 H to Swindle = 3 = 88 Personally I think 88 will be sufficient for auto promotion but we may not know it on the day If we go to Preston and beat them I think that will be the day we will be promoted. If we don't win it then it will be the next game. I can see us losing only once more by the end of the season and it will be against Walsall.. not in the JPT but last match of the season to get revenge for us beating them at Wembley when we are already champions and have taken our foot off the gas. We are two points ahead of my prediction above so we start on 90 points before below.. A to Preston = 0 = 90 A to Bradford = 3 = 93 H to Coventry = 1 = 94 A to Chesterfield = 3 = 97 A to Walsall = 3 = 100 Thought we might slip up at Walsall following our victory over them at Wembley but have changed my mind as we try and get the lone defeat of Preston out of our system and get over the line to 100 points. I think Coventry may be well on their way to a resurgence under Mowbray by the time we play them. I had Bradford down as a draw but so incensed will Cotts be over the Preston debacle, when he will be spitting complaints, the players will be all guns blazing at Valley Parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aizoon Posted March 11, 2015 Report Share Posted March 11, 2015 Some of these projections assume that our opponents will win all their games before we play Swindon. They won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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