Fordy62 Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 I've always wondered this... strikers are a little bit like houses. They're only worth what someone will pay for them. But at least with houses there are estate agents. And previously paid prices. Lets take Andre Gray for example. At present he's probably approaching his value of 9m after a god start to the season, but let's be honest, he wasn't really worth that much when we were in the mix. Most must be a really difficult game bidding for an opposition striker (or any player for that matter). Bid too much and you're taken for a mug, too little and you offend and leave yourself lots of work to do. We paid 2m for Kodjia, but I wonder how we arrived at that figure? its something I'd like to see behind the scenes. So let's consider you're a rival club bidding for Korey Smith (I'm well aware he isn't a striker like the title suggests but he's probably our most saleable asset) Where on earth do you start? And can we work out a basic formula? @Ian M I'm looking at you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonsRed Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 How much the club with the player needs the money / their overall financial state is a big part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YorkshireSection Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 korey Smith eg would be our strongest asset, irreplaceable to us so I guess we'd value him way over his actual worth. Ultimately if a club meets the valuation and offers a signing on fee and higher wages then he goes. Of course we'd not want to sell him but what can we do to stop the player leaving, match the wages, offer him a bonus etc, however a player like Korey is orientated by success which is why it'd be impossible to stop him leaving. PS I'd actually be more concerned right now of losing 2 key players, one already mentioned than bringing in players ( obviously we need to recruit desperately) but losing Smith and Flint would end our season. If I were the board I'd be looking to release the dead wood and up the dudilligence on loan signings. Unfortunately as pessimistic as it sounds I don't SC and his one way of playing enough to get us out of this situation, he may not be popular but Pearson would get us out of this dire situation, he worked wonders at Leicester, has great contacts, would be able to bring in a different pedigree of loanee and permanent player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 With 31 league goals in 66 Championship games at 24 years of age, I think you're right @Fordy62- Gray now looks very much like a £9 million player, even if in the summer that looked steep. I only hope Tetbury Massive's tale of last summer is not true (no reason to disbelieve him, sadly) as if it is, we shit the bed big time attempting to get more 'value' there - looks worth every penny of his fee right now. Positive for us is that Kodjia is on course to hit similar figures (18-20 goals) this year, so if we end up selling him next summer (whether we go up or down), then we stand to make a decent amount on our initial investment - here's to us not breaking his obvious spirit and limiting that the next four months in our fight against relegation. In fact, compared to many teams, our frontline is probably pretty 'cost effective' when you look at the last 18 months. Wilbraham was a free, and with 5 this year and 21 last time, we certainly have got our money's worth. Agard cost less than a million, and while 15 goals in 53 league games doesn't jump out at you, his role in promotion was significant. Plus; Baldock's move probably funded his arrival, with money to spare. JET might have been on decent wages, but 12 goals and a bunch of assists in 48 games (many of those 10 minute or less cameos) last year was a very healthy return, and not only was he here already, but a free too (not counting Anderson heading to Ipswich). Coupled with £2 million spent on Kodjia this summer (which looks a decent investment) hardly like we've broken the bank to find new blood for the front line - perhaps time we changed our habits; would be nice if we perhaps took a gamble, seeing what is at stake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Isewater Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 19 minutes ago, samo II said: With 31 league goals in 66 Championship games at 24 years of age, I think you're right @Fordy62- Gray now looks very much like a £9 million player, even if in the summer that looked steep. I only hope Tetbury Massive's tale of last summer is not true (no reason to disbelieve him, sadly) as if it is, we shit the bed big time attempting to get more 'value' there - looks worth every penny of his fee right now. Positive for us is that Kodjia is on course to hit similar figures (18-20 goals) this year, so if we end up selling him next summer (whether we go up or down), then we stand to make a decent amount on our initial investment - here's to us not breaking his obvious spirit and limiting that the next four months in our fight against relegation. In fact, compared to many teams, our frontline is probably pretty 'cost effective' when you look at the last 18 months. Wilbraham was a free, and with 5 this year and 21 last time, we certainly have got our money's worth. Agard cost less than a million, and while 15 goals in 53 league games doesn't jump out at you, his role in promotion was significant. Plus; Baldock's move probably funded his arrival, with money to spare. JET might have been on decent wages, but 12 goals and a bunch of assists in 48 games (many of those 10 minute or less cameos) last year was a very healthy return, and not only was he here already, but a free too (not counting Anderson heading to Ipswich). Coupled with £2 million spent on Kodjia this summer (which looks a decent investment) hardly like we've broken the bank to find new blood for the front line - perhaps time we changed our habits; would be nice if we perhaps took a gamble, seeing what is at stake. What is also crazy is that Gray is being tracked by some Prem sides and Burnley could almost double the money they paid for him if they wanted to sell him in this transfer window . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Major Isewater said: What is also crazy is that Gray is being tracked by some Prem sides and Burnley could almost double the money they paid for him if they wanted to sell him in this transfer window . As I mentioned on another thread; with Gayle even more frozen out at Palace than the Chelsea lad who just went home I'm a huff, I see no reason to go back and ask the lad to take a chance on us for the rest of the season, even if we ended up selling him or letting him return (if a loan) when the summer comes - the relatively frugal nature of our recruitment these last 18 months surely entitles us to take one or two gambles in pursuit of staying up (which financially would be a massive bonus to us). Doesn't have to be Gayle, but we need quality immediately, so perhaps need to think laterally as to what recruiting that might entail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 Once you work out a general formula, add 5mil if they are English Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Ian M Posted January 1, 2016 Admin Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 hours ago, Fordy62 said: I've always wondered this... strikers are a little bit like houses. They're only worth what someone will pay for them. But at least with houses there are estate agents. And previously paid prices. Lets take Andre Gray for example. At present he's probably approaching his value of 9m after a god start to the season, but let's be honest, he wasn't really worth that much when we were in the mix. Most must be a really difficult game bidding for an opposition striker (or any player for that matter). Bid too much and you're taken for a mug, too little and you offend and leave yourself lots of work to do. We paid 2m for Kodjia, but I wonder how we arrived at that figure? its something I'd like to see behind the scenes. So let's consider you're a rival club bidding for Korey Smith (I'm well aware he isn't a striker like the title suggests but he's probably our most saleable asset) Where on earth do you start? And can we work out a basic formula? @Ian M I'm looking at you! Isn't this basically what Matthew Benham at Brentford does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted January 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 35 minutes ago, Ian M said: Isn't this basically what Matthew Benham at Brentford does? Oh. I don't know. Is that what moneyball is then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inactive user Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 A significant part of the value goes down to potential i.e. young and likely re-sale value, plus the set up re add-ons etc. How it's actually priced is a bit of a mystery but I guess it's like supply and demand and everyone wants a top striker, hence the spiralling, TV money inflated prices. The real art however is not just winning a bidding war, it's seeking out real value and paying under the odds i.e buy low sell high. Whether that's the case with the wheelie-bin is yet to be seen but £2m for a striker at this level is pretty meagre these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 hours ago, City169 said: Once you work out a general formula, add 5mil if they are English Certainly in the prem where there is a maximum of 17 'foreigners' in the 25 man squad. It isn't quite that simple, but if you've spent 3 out of 5 years from 16-21 at a UK club, you're classed as one of the 8 non-foreigners. Thats why you okay a premium for 'English' players....when their overall quality is not as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 For us, I'd imagine it would be total cost of buying a replacement plus a sum representing the risk if that signing doesn't work. Higher up the leagues however I'd guess potential merchandise returns/losses come into it far more. Take signing Ronaldo or Messi, they might not actually 'cost' the buying club much, or at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 I remember a Chelsea fan making this point on the radio once. They`d just paid squillions for someone and he was arguing that they`d probably sell him in two years for slightly less squillions therefore making the two years he spent banging them in for them good value if you don`t count wages. 5 minutes ago, 29AR said: For us, I'd imagine it would be total cost of buying a replacement plus a sum representing the risk if that signing doesn't work. Higher up the leagues however I'd guess potential merchandise returns/losses come into it far more. Take signing Ronaldo or Messi, they might not actually 'cost' the buying club much, or at all. Difficult to argue with it really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddoh Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 take an Arsenal wanabee striker keep him till the summer sell him to Newcastle and van gal will keep his job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 5 hours ago, Fordy62 said: I've always wondered this... strikers are a little bit like houses. They're only worth what someone will pay for them. But at least with houses there are estate agents. And previously paid prices. Lets take Andre Gray for example. At present he's probably approaching his value of 9m after a god start to the season, but let's be honest, he wasn't really worth that much when we were in the mix. Most must be a really difficult game bidding for an opposition striker (or any player for that matter). Bid too much and you're taken for a mug, too little and you offend and leave yourself lots of work to do. We paid 2m for Kodjia, but I wonder how we arrived at that figure? its something I'd like to see behind the scenes. So let's consider you're a rival club bidding for Korey Smith (I'm well aware he isn't a striker like the title suggests but he's probably our most saleable asset) Where on earth do you start? And can we work out a basic formula? @Ian M I'm looking at you! Pricing is going to be dependent on how much value to the team or as an asset the player will add and at what price a club like ours will sell at, particularly if he is "not for sale" :laugh: and what price a replacement would be if one is to be found either before or after the original deal would become public. Also arbitrage will be an issue. Buying on different markets will offer something of a bargain on paper but the risk is higher and right now we are not in a position to take to many risks and as such need someone that can make a difference without a settling in period. This will likely mean experience, which will cost as clubs know we are in the market and have cash! over to you SL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltshoveller Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 3 hours ago, City169 said: Once you work out a general formula, add 5mil if they are English Correct And they blame premiership teams for not buying lower league English players!! Problem is lower league teams ask way to much for their players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maltshoveller Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 54 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Certainly in the prem where there is a maximum of 17 'foreigners' in the 25 man squad. It isn't quite that simple, but if you've spent 3 out of 5 years from 16-21 at a UK club, you're classed as one of the 8 non-foreigners. Thats why you okay a premium for 'English' players....when their overall quality is not as good. Thats why the likes of Arsenal look overseas and why there are very few English forwards playing in the prem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, Maltshoveller said: Thats why the likes of Arsenal look overseas and why there are very few English forwards playing in the prem Yep, the likes of Fabregas (now Chelsea) counts as 'English'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 Under 25 add £5 million English add £4 million Brazilian add £2 million Scored 20 goals + last season add £2 million Team Relegated last season subtract £2 million Over 30 subtract £4 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lou-peters-dive Posted January 1, 2016 Report Share Posted January 1, 2016 44 minutes ago, reddoh said: take an Arsenal wanabee striker keep him till the summer sell him to Newcastle and van gal will keep his job Hmmmm see what you did there. How old are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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