How Many Penalties Will We Get (calculated using the Duckworth-Lewis Method)

[Jack Dawe]

So, you take Lee Tomlin × 16 games.

He's played 2 games so far, lasting an hour each. We've had one pen, and really should've had another. That's one pen in two hours (a game and a third). If he can get up to playing 75 mins, that's giving Lee another couple of hours on the pitch, on top of what we're getting now, to get "clipped" or "barged" over and I reckon (2×4÷6+8-¥-h÷fg+3×5+2÷3=) we're in line for another 9 penalties this season (allowances are made for "diabolical" refs under this Meffod).

I'm just going to calculate how many of them we'll miss now....

[samo II]

Think you also need to add in the random factor of opposition defenders mistaking other players (like Bobby Reid yesterday) for Tomlin, and rugby tackling them to the ground - from my eye that is three penalties in two games we should have had; across the season Tomlin would end up with the golden boot just from spot kicks alone if your method is correct, Jack!

[Jack Dawe]

That did look like a pen, too @samo II. Bobby will learn a thing or two off LT  

[samo II]

Just now, Jack Dawe said:

That did look like a pen, too @samo II. Bobby will learn a thing or two off LT  

Thought this myself.

Can't hurt him or Freeman to have Tomlin alongside them in the pitch and in training, including teaching them a few of the 'dark arts'...

[WhistleHappy]

Never understood this cricket Duckworth/Lewis nonsense....

anyone know if JD is, erm... Spot On ?

[Jack Dawe]

5 minutes ago, WhistleHappy said:

Never understood this cricket Duckworth/Lewis nonsense....

anyone know if JD is, erm... Spot On ?

Straight down the middle, mate. No messin

[southvillekiddy]

Tomlin reminds me of Hagi. Always in the ref's face and nearly running the game himself. Can't be bad for us as long as he knows when to stop. Seems he does.

Yesterday the ref must might have felt too generous in giving the first pen. (do they scrutinise the previous games of both teams? - must do) but then was bailed out in allowing himself the luxury of turning down the certain penalty we should have had when Bobby really was pushed flat in the area.

[marmite]

Glad we have someone now who knows when to go down in the box.( no pun intended ) His ex Prem experience is obvious. We have been on the receiving end of dodgy decisions from ex Prem players for too long. time to give some back. Teach the boys all you know Mr. Tomlin.

[Roe]

Presumably he'll get 10 bookings before he gets 10 penalties.

[man in the middle]

This technique could easily have bought us another 2 points against Birmingham too given another Ref on another day. Keep going over Tomlin

[Lanterne Rouge]

2 hours ago, Jack Dawe said:

Straight down the middle, mate. No messin

Taking middle and leg? Pitched it up so might be missing for height (sorry Lee). Umpire`s call though.

No. I don`t know what I`m on about either.

[GrahamC]

Clear already that Tomlin will run at defenders in the penalty area, forcing them to tackle (or foul) him.

He backs himself to win penalties or shooting opportunities which was not the case with our team before we had him.

16 games left, I can see him winning a minimum of three more penalties and scoring five more goals.

[samo II]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

Clear already that Tomlin will run at defenders in the penalty area, forcing them to tackle (or foul) him.

He backs himself to win penalties or shooting opportunities which was not the case with our team before we had him.

16 games left, I can see him winning a minimum of three more penalties and scoring five more goals.

Think he's also helped Freeman be far more bold with his attempts; even as recently as the Leeds game, Freeman was somewhat shot shy, and certainly not going for it with the audacity and purpose he's shown the last two games (I'm working off highlights for the last two, so apologies if I'm off base).

That is the added value of someone of the ability of Tomlin (and perhaps Golbourne too, but in defence); they lead others to raise their game.

This is another reason why we need a decent striker in on loan; I've no doubt Kodjia will develop and be a real asset for us, but someone snapping at his heels for a place will only speed up that process.

[Lanterne Rouge]

11 minutes ago, samo II said:

Think he's also helped Freeman be far more bold with his attempts; even as recently as the Leeds game, Freeman was somewhat shot shy, and certainly not going for it with the audacity and purpose he's shown the last two games (I'm working off highlights for the last two, so apologies if I'm off base).

That is the added value of someone of the ability of Tomlin (and perhaps Golbourne too, but in defence); they lead others to raise their game.

This is another reason why we need a decent striker in on loan; I've no doubt Kodjia will develop and be a real asset for us, but someone snapping at his heels for a place will only speed up that process.

I did notice at the Brum game that LT & LF were talking to each other quite a lot so you might be right. It should certainly take the pressure off LF having to be the main man all the time.

[Roe]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

Clear already that Tomlin will run at defenders in the penalty area, forcing them to tackle (or foul) him.

He backs himself to win penalties or shooting opportunities which was not the case with our team before we had him.

16 games left, I can see him winning a minimum of three more penalties and scoring five more goals.

Freeman's done this quite a bit this season and been close to getting quite a few penalties as well. Hopefully with the pair of them doing the same thing on either side we might continue to get a few more shouts (if LJ keeps this system for now anyway)

[Calculus]

You may be right with your D/L calculations. Tomlin is obviously skilled in the dark arts and we'll get more penalties,  no question about it. I just hope he never takes another one if yesterday's is anything to go by. My auntie could have stopped that with her pinnie.....

..

[Numero Uno]

3 hours ago, GrahamC said:

Clear already that Tomlin will run at defenders in the penalty area, forcing them to tackle (or foul) him.

He backs himself to win penalties or shooting opportunities which was not the case with our team before we had him.

16 games left, I can see him winning a minimum of three more penalties and scoring five more goals.

If he can get five goals from three penalties the lad is even better than I thought !!!

[Lanterne Rouge]

Just now, Numero Uno said:

If he can get five goals from three penalties the lad is even better than I thought !!!

Apparently the league have said that as we`ve been harshly treated on the penalty front this season we are allowed to take two for each one we are awarded. Obviously one of the six goes is going to be missed. Do keep up.

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Calculus said:

You may be right with your D/L calculations. Tomlin is obviously skilled in the dark arts and we'll get more penalties,  no question about it. I just hope he never takes another one if yesterday's is anything to go by. My auntie could have stopped that with her pinnie.....

..

The first game I took Joe too, LT had his pen saved by FF.

It really is fine margins.  Shit pen by LT goes in, Marlon's hits underside of bar and cones out.  I sense (like the Two Ronnies) the worm has turned, and maybe we are just starting to get the rub if the green.

[JamesBCFC]

9 hours ago, southvillekiddy said:

Tomlin reminds me of Hagi. Always in the ref's face and nearly running the game himself. Can't be bad for us as long as he knows when to stop. Seems he does.

Yesterday the ref must might have felt too generous in giving the first pen. (do they scrutinise the previous games of both teams? - must do) but then was bailed out in allowing himself the luxury of turning down the certain penalty we should have had when Bobby really was pushed flat in the area.

Speaking of Hagi, maybe we should try and get his son on loan from Fiorentina next season, young so a slight risk, but would have been taught those things Georghe himself.