Son of Nob Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 Absolutely delighted to be staying up (although poorer from 'saver' betting), and full credit has to go to Lee Johnson for what is a fantastic turn around. Big transfer window coming up! Now I can finally relax and do some pointless analysis. Beyond conceding last minute goals (which seems to be far too regular), I can't remember a City side which has lost so many points from a winning position. I may be wrong, but around Johnson Senior's time I remember a stat about how long it had been since we'd been leading at half time and not gone on to win the game. Obviously this isn't a direct comparison as I'm taking full time score and ignoring half time (but you get the point). This season: Brentford (H) Lost 2-4. -3 Points Ipswich (A) Drew 2-2. -2 Points MK Dons (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brighton (A) 2-3. -3 Points Hull (H) 1-1. - 2 Points Charlton (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brentford (A) 1-1. -2 Points Derby (H) 2-3. -3 Points Blackburn (A) 2-2. -2 Points. Altogether that's a total of 21points lost from winning positions (fag paper maths, sure I will be corrected). Obviously I don't expect us to win every time we take the lead, but 21 lost points is pretty substantial. For me, the positive is that we have a squad which, for the majority, can compete. Interestingly, the only time we've lost points under Johnson has been the last three games. As I said, I love a bit of pointless analysis; but even turning half of those 21 lost points around takes us to mid-table. Including our loans, we are not that far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redtucks Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 13 minutes ago, Son Of Nob said: Absolutely delighted to be staying up (although poorer from 'saver' betting), and full credit has to go to Lee Johnson for what is a fantastic turn around. Big transfer window coming up! Now I can finally relax and do some pointless analysis. Beyond conceding last minute goals (which seems to be far too regular), I can't remember a City side which has lost so many points from a winning position. I may be wrong, but around Johnson Senior's time I remember a stat about how long it had been since we'd been leading at half time and not gone on to win the game. Obviously this isn't a direct comparison as I'm taking full time score and ignoring half time (but you get the point). This season: Brentford (H) Lost 2-4. -3 Points Ipswich (A) Drew 2-2. -2 Points MK Dons (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brighton (A) 2-3. -3 Points Hull (H) 1-1. - 2 Points Charlton (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brentford (A) 1-1. -2 Points Derby (H) 2-3. -3 Points Blackburn (A) 2-2. -2 Points. Altogether that's a total of 21points lost from winning positions (fag paper maths, sure I will be corrected). Obviously I don't expect us to win every time we take the lead, but 21 lost points is pretty substantial. For me, the positive is that we have a squad which, for the majority, can compete. Interestingly, the only time we've lost points under Johnson has been the last three games. As I said, I love a bit of pointless analysis; but even turning half of those 21 lost points around takes us to mid-table. Including our loans, we are not that far away. Not to mention WBA in the cup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 12 minutes ago, Son Of Nob said: Absolutely delighted to be staying up (although poorer from 'saver' betting), and full credit has to go to Lee Johnson for what is a fantastic turn around. Big transfer window coming up! Now I can finally relax and do some pointless analysis. Beyond conceding last minute goals (which seems to be far too regular), I can't remember a City side which has lost so many points from a winning position. I may be wrong, but around Johnson Senior's time I remember a stat about how long it had been since we'd been leading at half time and not gone on to win the game. Obviously this isn't a direct comparison as I'm taking full time score and ignoring half time (but you get the point). This season: Brentford (H) Lost 2-4. -3 Points Ipswich (A) Drew 2-2. -2 Points MK Dons (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brighton (A) 2-3. -3 Points Hull (H) 1-1. - 2 Points Charlton (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brentford (A) 1-1. -2 Points Derby (H) 2-3. -3 Points Blackburn (A) 2-2. -2 Points. Altogether that's a total of 21points lost from winning positions (fag paper maths, sure I will be corrected). Obviously I don't expect us to win every time we take the lead, but 21 lost points is pretty substantial. For me, the positive is that we have a squad which, for the majority, can compete. Interestingly, the only time we've lost points under Johnson has been the last three games. As I said, I love a bit of pointless analysis; but even turning half of those 21 lost points around takes us to mid-table. Including our loans, we are not that far away. You probably need to factor in the last minute goals we`ve scored to win points to make a fairer analysis. Fulham & Charlton away and Boro at home spring to mind = 6pts and I`m sure there are others. It is definitely something the coaches need to work on though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said: You probably need to factor in the last minute goals we`ve scored to win points to make a fairer analysis. Fulham & Charlton away and Boro at home spring to mind = 6pts and I`m sure there are others. It is definitely something the coaches need to work on though. Interesting to see that we had cut it out entirely the second half of the season, until the last three games! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBibs Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 I've just done a quick scan the other way and I think 12 points gained from losing positions. 2 wins (Fulham and Forest) and 6 draws. 9 games when we've lost a winning position and 8 when we've come back from a losing one. Also we came back from a losing position at West Brom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Nob Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, MrBibs said: I've just done a quick scan the other way and I think 12 points gained from losing positions. 2 wins (Fulham and Forest) and 6 draws. 9 games when we've lost a winning position and 8 when we've come back from a losing one. Also we came back from a losing position at West Brom 5 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said: You probably need to factor in the last minute goals we`ve scored to win points to make a fairer analysis. Fulham & Charlton away and Boro at home spring to mind = 6pts and I`m sure there are others. It is definitely something the coaches need to work on though. Absolutely! The point I'm ultimately trying to make is that, although we are shite, we are not too far away. Which, to be fair, is something I've thought all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, MrBibs said: I've just done a quick scan the other way and I think 12 points gained from losing positions. 2 wins (Fulham and Forest) and 6 draws. 9 games when we've lost a winning position and 8 when we've come back from a losing one. Also we came back from a losing position at West Brom Today goes in both columns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe jordans teeth Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 18 minutes ago, Son Of Nob said: Absolutely delighted to be staying up (although poorer from 'saver' betting), and full credit has to go to Lee Johnson for what is a fantastic turn around. Big transfer window coming up! Now I can finally relax and do some pointless analysis. Beyond conceding last minute goals (which seems to be far too regular), I can't remember a City side which has lost so many points from a winning position. I may be wrong, but around Johnson Senior's time I remember a stat about how long it had been since we'd been leading at half time and not gone on to win the game. Obviously this isn't a direct comparison as I'm taking full time score and ignoring half time (but you get the point). This season: Brentford (H) Lost 2-4. -3 Points Ipswich (A) Drew 2-2. -2 Points MK Dons (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brighton (A) 2-3. -3 Points Hull (H) 1-1. - 2 Points Charlton (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brentford (A) 1-1. -2 Points Derby (H) 2-3. -3 Points Blackburn (A) 2-2. -2 Points. Altogether that's a total of 21points lost from winning positions (fag paper maths, sure I will be corrected). Obviously I don't expect us to win every time we take the lead, but 21 lost points is pretty substantial. For me, the positive is that we have a squad which, for the majority, can compete. Interestingly, the only time we've lost points under Johnson has been the last three games. As I said, I love a bit of pointless analysis; but even turning half of those 21 lost points around takes us to mid-table. Including our loans, we are not that far away. Now do it points won from a losing position,wouldn't imagine it's to hot off the top of my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 5 minutes ago, joe jordans teeth said: Now do it points won from a losing position,wouldn't imagine it's to hot off the top of my head Can only think of Forest away (?), Fulham away, Preston away (?). I can`t recall one at home TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Nob Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 6 minutes ago, joe jordans teeth said: Now do it points won from a losing position,wouldn't imagine it's to hot off the top of my head Leeds (H) 2-2. +1 Preston (A) 1-1. +1 Ipswich (A) 1-1 (could argue both ways!). QPR (H) 1-1. +1 Forest (A) 2-1. +3 Fulham (A) 2-1. +3 Rotherham (H) 1-1. +1 Blackburn (A). 2-2 (Both ways). Never turned it around under Cotterill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe jordans teeth Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said: Can only think of Forest away (?), Fulham away, Preston away (?). I can`t recall one at home TBH. And today but not much more I wouldn't of thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadredfred Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 +21 would be good enough for 7th! Its a fair point. You're no more likely to concede in one minute of the game as any other, just at the end of matches it comes down to concentration of one side and a last throw of the dice from the other side. Be nice to sort it out though for next season. Could make quite a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedYoshi Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 Hmm. To echo what others have said, coming back from losing positions should really be included. As well as clarifying what we're classing as a "winning position" - as mentioned, today counts as both. As does Derby and Ipswich. Taking it as "first team to score", so as to rule out both teams being in the same position at some stage, we get this: Lost points: Brentford (H) -3 MK Dons (H) -2 Brighton (A) -3 Hull (H) -2 Charlton (H) -2 Brentford (A) -2 Total: -14 Gained points: Leeds (H) +1 Preston (A) +1 Ipswich (A) +1 QPR (H) +1 Forest (A) +3 Fulham (A) +3 Rotherham (H) +1 Blackburn (A) +1 Total: +12 So a -2 net difference. Think it's just football, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Nob Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, RedYoshi said: Hmm. To echo what others have said, coming back from losing positions should really be included. As well as clarifying what we're classing as a "winning position" - as mentioned, today counts as both. As does Derby and Ipswich. Taking it as "first team to score", so as to rule out both teams being in the same position at some stage, we get this: Lost points: Brentford (H) -3 MK Dons (H) -2 Brighton (A) -3 Hull (H) -2 Charlton (H) -2 Brentford (A) -2 Total: -14 Gained points: Leeds (H) +1 Preston (A) +1 Ipswich (A) +1 QPR (H) +1 Forest (A) +3 Fulham (A) +3 Rotherham (H) +1 Blackburn (A) +1 Total: +12 So a -2 net difference. Think it's just football, to be honest. Alright, I did say pointless analysis Edit - Also, it hurts more when you don't take full points from a winning position! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 4 minutes ago, RedYoshi said: Hmm. To echo what others have said, coming back from losing positions should really be included. As well as clarifying what we're classing as a "winning position" - as mentioned, today counts as both. As does Derby and Ipswich. Taking it as "first team to score", so as to rule out both teams being in the same position at some stage, we get this: Lost points: Brentford (H) -3 MK Dons (H) -2 Brighton (A) -3 Hull (H) -2 Charlton (H) -2 Brentford (A) -2 Total: -14 Gained points: Leeds (H) +1 Preston (A) +1 Ipswich (A) +1 QPR (H) +1 Forest (A) +3 Fulham (A) +3 Rotherham (H) +1 Blackburn (A) +1 Total: +12 So a -2 net difference. Think it's just football, to be honest. Nice analysis. What was killing us earlier was a whole run of late goals, or so it seemed at the time, MK, Charlton, Reading etc. Mind you, we had a few as well across the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 There was a thread a while back bemoaning the amount of late goals conceded but I didn't realise it was so many points lost. It quite staggering. But......we are mathematically safe now so it doesn't really matter......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedYoshi Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 1 minute ago, Son Of Nob said: Alright, I did say pointless analysis Ha - I love pointless analysis. Didn't mean to disparage it. Have you seen my prediction league updates?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Nob Posted April 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 1 minute ago, RedYoshi said: Ha - I love pointless analysis. Didn't mean to disparage it. Have you seen my prediction league updates?! I'm just grateful to see your prediction league post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickolas Posted April 23, 2016 Report Share Posted April 23, 2016 3 hours ago, Red Right Hand said: You probably need to factor in the last minute goals we`ve scored to win points to make a fairer analysis. Fulham & Charlton away and Boro at home spring to mind = 6pts and I`m sure there are others. It is definitely something the coaches need to work on though. I dont remember celebrating a late winner at Charlton?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanterne Rouge Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 8 hours ago, nickolas said: I dont remember celebrating a late winner at Charlton?!! Wasn`t the penalty pretty late on or is my memory shot as usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderingred Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 36 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said: Wasn`t the penalty pretty late on or is my memory shot as usual? I thought it was early in the game, around the 20th minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, Kim_il_sung said: I thought it was early in the game, around the 20th minute. Good memory. Tomlin, pen 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 Over the course of the season we are where we deserve to be based on the quality of our football. We haven't been good enough to hold on to leads/draws often enough. Addressing the issues of points slipping from our grasp is purely about hard work, improvement and a bit more concentration. The problem with threads like these is it can come across as "we've had too much bad luck and look at where we might be without it." The analysis above pretty much applies to most clubs. The point is - if we want some of those 20-lost points back we just need to improve. And we knew that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 It sound stupid to say when we have the joint 4th top scorer in our ranks, but a big factor this season has been the lack of goals throughout the team, certainly until we brought in a few players in January. 13 scorers overall, but with 6 of these having just a single goal. Wilbs has 8, Flint 6 and Tomlin 5, while only Reid, Odemwingie and Agard also have more than a single strike. Also worth noting that prior to SC leaving we'd only seen 6 players score for us, with an additional 7 finding the net since then, only two of which were signed after he left (and our 4th top scorer Agard hasn't scored since then either). Yes; it's right much has been spoken of regards shoring up our defensive strength (we've conceded 3+ goals on 9 occasions in the league; not good enough), but a big factor we also need to work on is carrying a goal threat across the whole team. Much discussion has been made about Kodjia, and whether he should have got more/isn't actually as good as all that. But what is without doubt is that if we had another similarly regular scorer (or even two players who could contribute half as many goals each) then we'd be a bigger threat. Tomlin looks like given a full season might be that type of player, and being that him and Odemwingie together have scored 7 of our 50 league goals, I think we will need to recruit more players capable of scoring at this level over the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 Being able to defend a lead late in the game and especially away from home, is what makes the difference between successful clubs and the also rans. That is why, this season has been so tense, never being able to claw our way far enough away from the drop zone. That is Lee Johnson's priority during the summer and pre-season. To make us harder to beat without sacrificing our ability to score goals. More clean sheets please, making for a more comfortable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pezo Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 It would be interesting to see how this compares to other clubs in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pickle Rick Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 16 hours ago, Son Of Nob said: Absolutely delighted to be staying up (although poorer from 'saver' betting), and full credit has to go to Lee Johnson for what is a fantastic turn around. Big transfer window coming up! Now I can finally relax and do some pointless analysis. Beyond conceding last minute goals (which seems to be far too regular), I can't remember a City side which has lost so many points from a winning position. I may be wrong, but around Johnson Senior's time I remember a stat about how long it had been since we'd been leading at half time and not gone on to win the game. Obviously this isn't a direct comparison as I'm taking full time score and ignoring half time (but you get the point). This season: Brentford (H) Lost 2-4. -3 Points Ipswich (A) Drew 2-2. -2 Points MK Dons (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brighton (A) 2-3. -3 Points Hull (H) 1-1. - 2 Points Charlton (H) 1-1. -2 Points Brentford (A) 1-1. -2 Points Derby (H) 2-3. -3 Points Blackburn (A) 2-2. -2 Points. Altogether that's a total of 21points lost from winning positions (fag paper maths, sure I will be corrected). Obviously I don't expect us to win every time we take the lead, but 21 lost points is pretty substantial. For me, the positive is that we have a squad which, for the majority, can compete. Interestingly, the only time we've lost points under Johnson has been the last three games. As I said, I love a bit of pointless analysis; but even turning half of those 21 lost points around takes us to mid-table. Including our loans, we are not that far away. Please breakdown how many points all teams in this league have dropped from being in front. Would be lovely to read. Warm regards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slartibartfast Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 16 hours ago, Son Of Nob said: Absolutely delighted to be staying up (although poorer from 'saver' betting), I'm sure I don't know what you mean ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
havanatopia Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 16 hours ago, Son Of Nob said: although we are shite, we are not too far away. Which, to be fair, is something I've thought all season. So you are suggesting we CAN make a silk purse out of a sow's ear? To use your 5 lettered disparaging slang, I prefer to think we are a reasonable side pretending sometimes to be 'shite'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS13 Robin Posted April 24, 2016 Report Share Posted April 24, 2016 I have just read all this analysis and have come to another conclusion,and that is that some people have too much time on their hands!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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