What are we doing differently compared to the start of the season?

[ChippenhamRed]

Haven't been down for quite a few weeks now so I haven't any of our slump first-hand. So my question is a genuine one - what has changed?

I understand the notion that teams have "worked us out" - but would that alone really explain such a dramatic loss of form? I don't think it would. And surely that would also work both ways - we would also know more about our opposition.

I keep hearing how terrible we are now - but this side has already shown it CAN win games at this level, so can we really be that bad?

Interested to hear what people think.

[Major Isewater]

We're losing matches .

[Turbored]

Simply just cannot score.. we should of been out of sight by 20 mins. 

[shelts]

We're not winning 

[tiz]

Not taking our chances. Simple

[sephjnr]

We are playing the same zones game after game and not reacting to the opposing defenders, or forcing them away to make space for our forwards. We are also congregating in the 18yd box en masse as opposed to getting into areas where the midfield can pass the ball. 

[robin_unreliant]

40 minutes ago, sephjnr said:

 We are also congregating in the 18yd box en masse as opposed to getting into areas where the midfield can pass the ball. 

Our movement off the ball in recent games has really dropped. Watching the opposition in the last two games they seemed to have loads of options when coming forward with the ball. Whereas I watch us bring it out of defence and there seem to be a load of statues all stood there with someone marking them. Apart from the opening 20 mins yesterday when we seemed up for it and players were running into spaces. People scream at the player with the ball for slowing up or not passing but they have no option due to us having one man up front marked by three defenders and no movement from the midfield.

[pongo88]

We didn't play well in a lot of matches earlier in the season, but were saved by Tammy scoring. His goals disguised the deficiencies in the team. He doesn't score = we lose. 

[Olé]

Good question.

There's a useful symmetry as since we beat a poor Forest team at the start of October, we have played the same number of league games (11) as we played up to and including that Forest game. In that second 11 we have lost 8 and dropped 26 of 33 points.

• Games 1-11 up to Forest (H): W6 D2 L3 GF19 GA12 (20 of 33 points)
  = 61% points return, 1.73 goals per game, 1.10 conceded per game
• Games 12-22 up to Preston (H): W2 D1 L8 GF9 GA15 (7 of 33 points)
  = 21% points return, 0.82 goals per game, 1.36 conceded per game

So it's pretty obvious our goalscoring has deserted us as there is a much bigger swing against us on goals scored that on goals conceded. We had scored 2 or more goals in 7 of the first 11 games. In the last 11 we have scored 2 or more goals in just 2 of the 11 games.

We are not scoring enough goals to put ourselves in a winning position. Tammy is top scorer, he scored 8 goals in the first 11 league games and just 2 in the last 11. I think most people had realised that already, but it represents a significant shift in impact and contribution:

• Abraham games 1-11:  P10.5 GS8 = 0.76 goals per game, 42% of all our goals 
• Abraham games 12-22: P11 GS2 = 0.18 goals per game, 22% of all our goals

Being realistic we have to accept that Tammy's first 11 games were not themselves normal, the goal ratio was incredible and so we have to accept his recent record is closer to normality and others must chip in. In his last 11 games, we have compensated with 7 other goals:

• Penalty (Tomlin x 2)
• Outside the box (Tomlin, O'Neil, Freeman)
• Inside the box (Wilbraham x 2)

I would suggest that the difference, and the problem, is exactly what everyone has already seen with their own ****ing eyes without the need for these stats. We are not playing attacking players enough in positions to support Tammy in scoring (or more simply: no second striker).

Our two goals inside the box were from a second striker (only on as sub). In fact if you take away penalties, our remaining goals are all speculative shots from outside the box (very much so in Tomlin and Freemans case). This is the low probability shots on goal LJ has us depending on.

All that has happened is Tammy has stopped scoring with every chance he gets (a hot streak that we shouldn't have been relying on) and LJ has a majority of the time since, twice this week included, refused to support him up front and is hoping for us to pop two a game in from 20 yards!?  

Incidentally, the last TWO times we didn't lose a game (beating Ipswich and drawing with Barnsley) we had 2 players up front from the start. These were also the two games I mention above as being the only occasions in the last 11 that we've scored 2 or more goals. It's that obvious.

I made a point in my knee-jerk "rant" last night about LJ favouring entrenching his philosophy rather than getting results. These stats bear that out.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

Not getting the luck that we certainly got earlier in the season, it had to end sooner or later.

 

[JoeAman08]

3 hours ago, pongo88 said:

We didn't play well in a lot of matches earlier in the season, but were saved by Tammy scoring. His goals disguised the deficiencies in the team. He doesn't score = we lose. 

Exactly. We played poorly for large stretches of almost every game this year. Bobby Reid and Tammy scored probably 12-13 goals between them the first 12-13 games. They stopped scoring an no one else has picked up the slack. Same problems conceding soft goals and not scoring. Formation changes and chopping of th starting XI hasn't helped. 

[Trueredsupporter]

Dropped the tempo. Too slow too often.

[Nick Wilde]

We are a lot worse at corners, defending and attacking.

[ChippenhamRed]

3 hours ago, Olé said:

Good question.

There's a useful symmetry as since we beat a poor Forest team at the start of October, we have played the same number of league games (11) as we played up to and including that Forest game. In that second 11 we have lost 8 and dropped 26 of 33 points.

• Games 1-11 up to Forest (H): W6 D2 L3 GF19 GA12 (20 of 33 points)
  = 61% points return, 1.73 goals per game, 1.10 conceded per game
• Games 12-22 up to Preston (H): W2 D1 L8 GF9 GA15 (7 of 33 points)
  = 21% points return, 0.82 goals per game, 1.36 conceded per game

So it's pretty obvious our goalscoring has deserted us as there is a much bigger swing against us on goals scored that on goals conceded. We had scored 2 or more goals in 7 of the first 11 games. In the last 11 we have scored 2 or more goals in just 2 of the 11 games.

We are not scoring enough goals to put ourselves in a winning position. Tammy is top scorer, he scored 8 goals in the first 11 league games and just 2 in the last 11. I think most people had realised that already, but it represents a significant shift in impact and contribution:

• Abraham games 1-11:  P10.5 GS8 = 0.76 goals per game, 42% of all our goals 
• Abraham games 12-22: P11 GS2 = 0.18 goals per game, 22% of all our goals

Being realistic we have to accept that Tammy's first 11 games were not themselves normal, the goal ratio was incredible and so we have to accept his recent record is closer to normality and others must chip in. In his last 11 games, we have compensated with 7 other goals:

• Penalty (Tomlin x 2)
• Outside the box (Tomlin, O'Neil, Freeman)
• Inside the box (Wilbraham x 2)

I would suggest that the difference, and the problem, is exactly what everyone has already seen with their own ****ing eyes without the need for these stats. We are not playing attacking players enough in positions to support Tammy in scoring (or more simply: no second striker).

Our two goals inside the box were from a second striker (only on as sub). In fact if you take away penalties, our remaining goals are all speculative shots from outside the box (very much so in Tomlin and Freemans case). This is the low probability shots on goal LJ has us depending on.

All that has happened is Tammy has stopped scoring with every chance he gets (a hot streak that we shouldn't have been relying on) and LJ has a majority of the time since, twice this week included, refused to support him up front and is hoping for us to pop two a game in from 20 yards!?  

Incidentally, the last TWO times we didn't lose a game (beating Ipswich and drawing with Barnsley) we had 2 players up front from the start. These were also the two games I mention above as being the only occasions in the last 11 that we've scored 2 or more goals. It's that obvious.

I made a point in my knee-jerk "rant" last night about LJ favouring entrenching his philosophy rather than getting results. These stats bear that out.

Outstanding answer @Olé!

[Spoons]

5 minutes ago, Thatch35 said:

LJ proving the doubters right.

Doubters or numpty's??

[Engvall's Splinter]

Have run out of luck. 

Very fortunate in a lot of games early doors. 

[Engvall's Splinter]

9 minutes ago, Spoons said:

Doubters or numpty's??

Or knowledgables. Or realists. 

[ChippenhamRed]

8 hours ago, Port Pete said:

Or knowledgables. Or realists. 

Getting sick of this attitude. As if anyone who was "knowledgeable" or a "realist" knew Johnson was destined to fail.

Johnson came here as a relatively unknown quantity but with a reputation as an intelligent and promising young coach. He came with no guarantee of success but neither was there any certainty of failure. Did these same "knowledgeables" know in advance that Cotterill, with a moderate previous record, would turn out to do so well for us?

To say that any knowledgeable or realistic person knew he would fail is ridiculous. The way certain posters are elevating themselves as more "knowledgeable" than other posters because they knew all along he would fail is utterly pathetic. It's arrogant.

Our recent managerial appointments prove that this forum has a very poor track record for predicting success. McInnes and SOD were broadly welcomed, Cotterill not.

The most intelligent observers are the ones who are able to recognise that it is very difficult to predict the future - and have the humility not to claim they know everything in advance.

[Engvall's Splinter]

5 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Getting sick of this attitude. As if anyone who was "knowledgeable" or a "realist" knew Johnson was destined to fail.

Johnson came here as a relatively unknown quantity but with a reputation as an intelligent and promising young coach. He came with no guarantee of success but neither was there any certainty of failure. Did these same "knowledgeables" know in advance that Cotterill, with a moderate previous record, would turn out to do so well for us?

To say that any knowledgeable or realistic person knew he would fail is ridiculous. The way certain posters are elevating themselves as more "knowledgeable" than other posters because they knew all along he would fail is utterly pathetic. It's arrogant.

Our recent managerial appointments prove that this forum has a very poor track record for predicting success. McInnes and SOD were broadly welcomed, Cotterill not.

The most intelligent observers are the ones who are able to recognise that it is very difficult to predict the future - and have the humility not to claim they know everything in advance.

Getting sick of the view that those who were against his appointment from the off, who've put up with the dross served up for a reasonable amount of time continually get shot down despite the woeful run we are enduring. 

Realist indeed. Johnson came here with very little track record. Moderate job at Oldham. No real success. Below average job at Barnsley where their fans were ecstatic he left! If that doesn't ring alarm bells then I don't know what does. Taking that in account, I would suggest it was an educated and knowledgable view that it was going to be a struggle for him as it's proving. 

Posters aren't elevating themselves whatsoever, it's their view. Ite pathetic when posters completely dismiss the views of others stating that people have 'come out of the woodwork' now we're losing. The performances have been sh&@e for the most part. Results and Tammys early form has masked that and many have bought into the media circus whipped up. The luck has runout, he'll need more than that now. Dossing round watching kitchen performances won't help our cause. 

We'll see though.

Arrogance. Laughable. 

[ChippenhamRed]

14 minutes ago, Port Pete said:

Getting sick of the view that those who were against his appointment from the off, who've put up with the dross served up for a reasonable amount of time continually get shot down despite the woeful run we are enduring. 

Realist indeed. Johnson came here with very little track record. Moderate job at Oldham. No real success. Below average job at Barnsley where their fans were ecstatic he left! If that doesn't ring alarm bells then I don't know what does. Taking that in account, I would suggest it was an educated and knowledgable view that it was going to be a struggle for him as it's proving. 

Posters aren't elevating themselves whatsoever, it's their view. Ite pathetic when posters completely dismiss the views of others stating that people have 'come out of the woodwork' now we're losing. The performances have been sh&@e for the most part. Results and Tammys early form has masked that and many have bought into the media circus whipped up. The luck has runout, he'll need more than that now. Dossing round watching kitchen performances won't help our cause. 

We'll see though.

Arrogance. Laughable. 

You've completely ignored the point I was making. And, yes, to claim oneself to be more knowledgeable than others - people you don't actually know - is the height of arrogance.

As for "coming out of the woodwork", Port Pete is a name I've hardly seen on here before - yet now you're here all the time claiming yourself to be more knowledgeable than the rest of us.

[Son of Fred]

20 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Haven't been down for quite a few weeks now so I haven't any of our slump first-hand. So my question is a genuine one - what has changed?

I understand the notion that teams have "worked us out" - but would that alone really explain such a dramatic loss of form? I don't think it would. And surely that would also work both ways - we would also know more about our opposition.

I keep hearing how terrible we are now - but this side has already shown it CAN win games at this level, so can we really be that bad?

Interested to hear what people think.

Shopping list; Proven goalscorer,top Championship keeper,quality centre mid...

We got away with a few results early on but couldn't hope for that to last-it didn't..

[Engvall's Splinter]

58 minutes ago, ChippenhamRed said:

You've completely ignored the point I was making. And, yes, to claim oneself to be more knowledgeable than others - people you don't actually know - is the height of arrogance.

As for "coming out of the woodwork", Port Pete is a name I've hardly seen on here before - yet now you're here all the time claiming yourself to be more knowledgeable than the rest of us.

Only more knowledgable than you Chip. No-one else. 

Wih regards not being on here loads, does that make my thoughts and opinions less valid? Odd statement. 

Usually bite my tongue and take a watching brief. The last few weeks have been tip of the iceberg. You sit underneath that rock and ignore it chap. 

[Phileas Fogg]

21 minutes ago, Port Pete said:

Only more knowledgable than you Chip. No-one else. 

Wih regards not being on here loads, does that make my thoughts and opinions less valid? Odd statement. 

Usually bite my tongue and take a watching brief. The last few weeks have been tip of the iceberg. You sit underneath that rock and ignore it chap. 

No one really 'knows' how a manager will get on. When he arrived his brief was to keep us up and he managed that pretty comfortably. 

People seem to forget that he, like many of our players, is still developing. Johnson is learning and improving all the time; coaches like SO'D, Cotterill, Coppell came here as experienced managers who probably weren't developing or improving much anymore. Whilst it's a risk to give a young coach an opportunity in a high pressure league atleast we know that when we get through this poor run (which I am confident we will) he will be a much better coach for it.

Whilst there are plenty of valid concerns about the team, many of which I share, it does feel like certain posters (not necessarily you) only emerge when things are going badly. One poster even admitted he 'dislikes' Johnson and that it 'clouds his judgement' - I'm certain there are other posters like this. Many of them hated his appointment and were annoyed he proved them totally wrong up until October. 

[cidered abroad]

1 hour ago, ChippenhamRed said:

You've completely ignored the point I was making. And, yes, to claim oneself to be more knowledgeable than others - people you don't actually know - is the height of arrogance.

As for "coming out of the woodwork", Port Pete is a name I've hardly seen on here before - yet now you're here all the time claiming yourself to be more knowledgeable than the rest of us.

Well I'm not coming out of the woodwork and have supported City for 66 years. ST holder.

Johnson is continually changing formation and personnel. Is playing one up front because we can't defend and keep clean sheets. Lack of pace throughout the squad. Lack of goal scoring ability throughout the squad. Tammy, Reid and Wilbs excepted. Tomlin not playing far enough forward where it would hurt.

If nothing changes very soon, we're going only in one direction. I've seen seven relegation seasons and plenty others when we just scraped through. This has all the hallmarks of being a very close thing at end of next April.

Either LJ changes it or we change him. Soon!

[samo II]

11 hours ago, ChippenhamRed said:

Outstanding answer @Olé!

Agreed, and bang on point about where I see our problem being - a lack of options and focus up top.

It's notable that if you compare games from this season and last, often we're getting similar results (example; Birmingham away, Brentford at home) but the manner of theses is different.  

Using the two examples above, this year we lost both matches 1-0, while last year we were hit 4-2 in each match.

Similarly; if you take Burnley as the Norwich equivalent, we lost 4-0 away to the former last campaign and only 1-0 to the latter this time around.

Now I'm not sure if it boils simply down to playing staff (i.e. If we had more first-team ready strikers) or the manner of our play, but our biggest flaw is the inability to put that damn ball in the net.  

I relaise it is popular to simply write off LJ right now, and results have meant he's earned scrutiny, but for me we're competing pretty well compared to last year; we just are not ruthless enough in front of goal.

@Olémakes an excellent case for this being more than just a playing staff issue; it may very well be a mentiality or set up thing.  But whatever the cause, we need something to change, as without the goals to back up the general play, we're back on SO'D territory, where regardless if we're making ten times the passes the opposing team are, we cannot beat them.

[TinMan's left peg]

15 hours ago, Olé said:

Good question.

There's a useful symmetry as since we beat a poor Forest team at the start of October, we have played the same number of league games (11) as we played up to and including that Forest game. In that second 11 we have lost 8 and dropped 26 of 33 points.

• Games 1-11 up to Forest (H): W6 D2 L3 GF19 GA12 (20 of 33 points)
  = 61% points return, 1.73 goals per game, 1.10 conceded per game
• Games 12-22 up to Preston (H): W2 D1 L8 GF9 GA15 (7 of 33 points)
  = 21% points return, 0.82 goals per game, 1.36 conceded per game

So it's pretty obvious our goalscoring has deserted us as there is a much bigger swing against us on goals scored that on goals conceded. We had scored 2 or more goals in 7 of the first 11 games. In the last 11 we have scored 2 or more goals in just 2 of the 11 games.

We are not scoring enough goals to put ourselves in a winning position. Tammy is top scorer, he scored 8 goals in the first 11 league games and just 2 in the last 11. I think most people had realised that already, but it represents a significant shift in impact and contribution:

• Abraham games 1-11:  P10.5 GS8 = 0.76 goals per game, 42% of all our goals 
• Abraham games 12-22: P11 GS2 = 0.18 goals per game, 22% of all our goals

Being realistic we have to accept that Tammy's first 11 games were not themselves normal, the goal ratio was incredible and so we have to accept his recent record is closer to normality and others must chip in. In his last 11 games, we have compensated with 7 other goals:

• Penalty (Tomlin x 2)
• Outside the box (Tomlin, O'Neil, Freeman)
• Inside the box (Wilbraham x 2)

I would suggest that the difference, and the problem, is exactly what everyone has already seen with their own ****ing eyes without the need for these stats. We are not playing attacking players enough in positions to support Tammy in scoring (or more simply: no second striker).

Our two goals inside the box were from a second striker (only on as sub). In fact if you take away penalties, our remaining goals are all speculative shots from outside the box (very much so in Tomlin and Freemans case). This is the low probability shots on goal LJ has us depending on.

All that has happened is Tammy has stopped scoring with every chance he gets (a hot streak that we shouldn't have been relying on) and LJ has a majority of the time since, twice this week included, refused to support him up front and is hoping for us to pop two a game in from 20 yards!?  

Incidentally, the last TWO times we didn't lose a game (beating Ipswich and drawing with Barnsley) we had 2 players up front from the start. These were also the two games I mention above as being the only occasions in the last 11 that we've scored 2 or more goals. It's that obvious.

I made a point in my knee-jerk "rant" last night about LJ favouring entrenching his philosophy rather than getting results. These stats bear that out.

Great stuff Ole. I'd be interested to see the chance v conversion ratio too. It feels to me like we're still creating enough good chances to win matches but we are continually failing to hit the target. Again this is likely because we are over reliant on a 19 year old in his "rookie" year  

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Phileas Fogg said:

No one really 'knows' how a manager will get on. When he arrived his brief was to keep us up and he managed that pretty comfortably. 

People seem to forget that he, like many of our players, is still developing. Johnson is learning and improving all the time; coaches like SO'D, Cotterill, Coppell came here as experienced managers who probably weren't developing or improving much anymore. Whilst it's a risk to give a young coach an opportunity in a high pressure league atleast we know that when we get through this poor run (which I am confident we will) he will be a much better coach for it.

Whilst there are plenty of valid concerns about the team, many of which I share, it does feel like certain posters (not necessarily you) only emerge when things are going badly. One poster even admitted he 'dislikes' Johnson and that it 'clouds his judgement' - I'm certain there are other posters like this. Many of them hated his appointment and were annoyed he proved them totally wrong up until October. 

Exactly.  Johnson was about the best we could get in our situation.  I was a huge Cotts fan, but those who thought we might get Pearson were unrealistic.  Johnson was / is a modern coach, but still learning his trade at an unforgiving level.  I'm behind him, and fortunes can change quickly...need to ride this one out, and quickly.  Be just like City to go and win at Mollineux wouldn't it!

Back to Pearson - would he have guaranteed success...nope.

We've got to aspire to be Brighton (of recent times)....couple of struggling seasons, gradually building without parachute payments.  We need a bit of patience.

Early season positioning (if not necessarily form) was great but lulled us into a false sense of optimism.  No harm in that.  Shows we have the right base, but we have a young squad who will have dips in form.  

 

[edit - the bit about Johnson sounds a bit unfair - I think saying he was the best we could get is harsh....I think a number of clubs in the championship would've looked at him as a possible replacement - so we should count ourselves a bit fortunate - might not seem it over the past 2 months, but you can't have your cake (play-off positions early season) and eat it]

[KingLear]

Simply put, the goals from Abraham have dried up.

While there could be multiple reasons for that, he is still getting himself into goal-scoring positions and that's the main thing, hopefully he starts firing on all cylinders again soon (and gets a bit more luck).

I've mentioned it before but before the Cardiff game one of the pundits said that without Abraham's goals this season we'd be around 16th in the table (think we were around 6th at the time), now I think we can safely say that prediction has come to pass.

I don't think anyone, himself included, expected to come here and be the main striker in a Championship side at 19 years old, he needs some help to take the pressure off him and hopefully signing a striker in the window will help.

[Super]

honestly how many games have we played really well in this season?

[Phileas Fogg]

7 minutes ago, KingLear said:

Simply put, the goals from Abraham have dried up.

While there could be multiple reasons for that, he is still getting himself into goal-scoring positions and that's the main thing, hopefully he starts firing on all cylinders again soon (and gets a bit more luck).

I've mentioned it before but before the Cardiff game one of the pundits said that without Abraham's goals this season we'd be around 16th in the table (think we were around 6th at the time), now I think we can safely say that prediction has come to pass.

I don't think anyone, himself included, expected to come here and be the main striker in a Championship side at 19 years old, he needs some help to take the pressure off him and hopefully signing a striker in the window will help.

Precisely. I couldn't believe so many of our fans thought we'd be 'fine' losing Kodjia because 'Abraham is better' (he isn't.. yet) as if his goals wouldn't dry up eventually. Self preservation psychology I guess.

Obviously we couldn't turn down that offer but the naivety of some of our support to think we had adequate goal threat after his departure was extraordinary.