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Super computer predicts end season final places

Paul Cheesey

By Paul Cheesey
in Football Chat

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JasonM88 said:

He hardly left a mess behind, he left a small but talented group of players that needed some top players to move the group foward. Nothing that 11 million pounds shouldn't have fixed

I'm not talking about players that individually are half decent...I'm talking about other things that have an effect on a club doing well.

As for money...we all know money doesn't buy success. Hence the millions we have wasted over the years.

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BobBobSuperBob

BobBobSuperBob

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, spudski said:

They didn't have the mess that SC left behind though Bob :laugh: ;-)

Was it such a 'mess' in terms of personnel though Spud ?

There was a requirement to upgrade and/or add in certain areas, but I wouldn't describe the squad as a 'mess'

Was the tactical stubbornness and lack of depth / options that caused our problems come the end IMHO

I would actually say we are at this moment in time (Can't predict the future) more of a mess

( Personally, for example  I'd have LA & GC Back in an instant right at this moment)

More 'depth' ( Of Sorts )  in the squad now, but too many of a similar type and standard IMHO and we have spent a few million to achieve even that !

you only have to see the 1001 variations in selections & formations that fans came up with prior to the PNE game to demonstrate that we lack nailed on automatic selections and no idea of our best formation

The one obvious positive , potentially at least is the age of the squad , with the potential for development / improvement

However that's only a positive if the youngish additions do develop & improve

Great strategy as long as your recruitment and your coaching set up is good / very good and I don't feel confident to accurately assess either atm

As we see atm the problem with a young squad can be decisions on pitch, game management and the ability to pull themselves out of a slump  ( Personally Id be keeping Wilbs and GON on the pitch for as many mins as I could right now - even if they aren't at top of their game - we need every ounce of know how / experience we can grab)

Ill be honest I'm not totally convinced about any of the young potentials ATM ( Save Tammy but that's not a tough judgement ;) ) but can't say I've seen enough of them , or how LJ would see using them , to anywhere near enough , to fully assess tbh

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Was it such a 'mess' in terms of personnel though Spud ?

There was a requirement to upgrade and/or add uncertain areas, but I wouldn't describe the squad as a 'mess'

Was the tactical stubbornness and lack of depth / options that caused our problems come the end IMHO

I would actually say we are at this moment in time (Can't predict the future) more of a mess

More 'depth' ( Of Sorts )  in the squad but too many of a similar type and standard IMHO - 

you only have to see the 1001 variations in selections & formations that fans came up with prior to the PNE game to demonstrate that

The one obvious positive , potentially at least is the age of the squad , with the potential for development / improvement

However that's only a positive if the youngish additions do develop & improve

Great strategy as long as your recruitment and your coaching set up is good / very good and I don't feel confident to accurately assess either atm

As we see atm the problem with a young squad can be decisions on pitch, game management and the ability to pull themselves out of a slump  ( Personally Id be keeping Wilbs and GON on the pitch for as many mins as I could right now - even if they aren't at top of their game - we need every ounce of know how / experience we can grab)

Ill be honest I'm not totally convinced about any of the young potentials ATM ( Save Tammy but that's not a tough judgement ;) ) but can't say I've seen enough of them , or how LJ would see using them , to anywhere near enough , to fully assess tbh

Nothing wrong, regarding the players like you say fella... The players as a squad weren't a mess...everything else in the club was though. I covered all your other points in another post recently today on another thread.

I can't agree about being in more of a mess though in terms of playing staff. Awful run agreed...but we are so near to being a good side. It'll come good...mid table I reckon.

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BobBobSuperBob

BobBobSuperBob

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, spudski said:

Nothing wrong, regarding the players like you say fella... The players as a squad weren't a mess...everything else in the club was though. I covered all your other points in another post recently today on another thread.

I can't agree about being in more of a mess though in terms of playing staff. Awful run agreed...but we are so near to being a good side. It'll come good...mid table I reckon.

You probably have a far better knowledge and assessment of the back room side / 'everything else in the club' side Spud and I have no real doubts that , that is the case or at least we are on the 'right lines'

Coming back to the ' front end ' / showroom part 'of the business' and the current first team & set up

Genuinely interested , with your interest / knowledge of the game on this ......

in your opinion do you totally believe in the set up / formation / philosophy , that I've seen predominantly to date ?

My understanding / view of (parts of) our strategy is that we are trying to outnumber the opp in and flood the middle of the pitch , and attack through maintenance of possession and short passing through a (Relatively) narrow 'corridor' of the pitch 

Genuinely interested in your opinion, and anyone / everyone's opinion and posted it on here as it's a good debate for any / all as they see it

Personally, for me I think it's a big ask unless you can attract the cream of the crop (Who are capable technically and physically, of performing at top end Championship as a minimum standard and can fit comfortably in that system / philosophy)

as a side note , if we are going to further this philosophy I would be , as a high priority identifying the very best full backs we can afford and attract, and be prioritising financially this area along with a goal scorer above any other areas with a keeper following behind a stiker(s) , the full back positions in terms of financial and all other priorities

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Lanterne Rouge

Lanterne Rouge

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, BCFC_Dan said:

Interesting, and their prediction was in line with what I guessed it would be.

I'd like to see their methodology though. Are they simply extrapolating form over the season or is there more to it than that?

Me too. It must be an analysis of all the games left with predicted scores otherwise how do PNE & Brentford finish below us and Forest & Wolves above?

I think if it is that, it`s about right.

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

You probably have a far better knowledge and assessment of the back room side / 'everything else in the club' side Spud and I have no real doubts that , that is the case or at least we are on the 'right lines'

Coming back to the ' front end ' / showroom part 'of the business' and the current first team & set up

Genuinely interested , with your interest / knowledge of the game on this ......

in your opinion do you totally believe in the set up / formation / philosophy , that I've seen predominantly to date ?

My understanding / view of (parts of) our strategy is that we are trying to outnumber the opp in and flood the middle of the pitch , and attack through maintenance of possession and short passing through a (Relatively) narrow 'corridor' of the pitch 

Genuinely interested in your opinion, and anyone / everyone's opinion and posted it on here as it's a good debate for any / all as they see it

Personally, for me I think it's a big ask unless you can attract the cream of the crop (Who are capable technically and physically, of performing at top end Championship as a minimum standard and can fit comfortably in that system / philosophy)

as a side note , if we are going to further this philosophy I would be , as a high priority identifying the very best full backs we can afford and attract, and be prioritising financially this area along with a goal scorer above any other areas with a keeper following behind a stiker(s) , the full back positions in terms of financial and all other priorities

Without having to repeat a post, this is what I posted in another thread that basically gives my opinion to how I feel at the moment mate.

Quote...

We have the makings of a good team, but again too many weak points individually.

The one's that stand out for me are at LB. Joe Bryan, just isn't good enough at the defensive roll of a LB...great when going forward, but drifts, loses his shape, either goes in too close to the opponent and dives in or gives too much room. Can't stop a cross for toffee...first goal and when they hit the cross bar, both JB's fault.

Think we are ok at CB.

Matthews is improving every game. Think he's been feeling his way back to fitness and not over stretching himself. Got forward as well yesterday and produced a sublime cross for the goal.

GoN...his legs have gone imo. Has an engine...but it needs a turbo...plus his set piece deliveries are awful. Hardly ever gets past the first defender.

Pack...going about his job ok. Needs pace around him.

Smith...totally lacking this season imo.

Tomlin...he's our biggest problem. Sublime footballing skills, but so were mine in the school playground. Which is what it looks like when he plays. We don't need him collecting the ball on the edge of our own box. Playing a pass then just jogging about a bit. Then receiving it again and laying it off and standing still. We need him in the last third...playing those exquisite balls into Tammy or another pressing player. When he goes wandering...nobody seems to know where to cover the space he's left....then we get stretched and players are out of position and scrambling to find the right thing to do. For all his skills and passing...he causes more problems than he's worth, playing the way he does now. He needs to be restrained and told to play higher up field where we can penetrate better imo. I don't think he has the engine to play the way he does effectively. He was blowing out his arse after the first 15 mins on Saturday, and actually went hiding for a breather after one quick burst. I don't think he even had an effort on goal on Saturday. Very frustrating...looks nice...but it isn't effective.

Tammy...just needs some luck, a bit of composure and some physical help along side him. Movement could be better as well.

All the others are 'Squad' players imo.

Odowda, Pattersen ,Moore, Engval and Brownhill, were brought in for the near future imo. We've risked buying them cheaper with an intention of developing them here, rather than improving elsewhere and having to pay more for them.

The January window needs a Wilbs type player to help Tammy....someone with experience and quality and a good physicality and engine about him.

GoN needs replacing with Championship quality and experience. But with some physicality about them. Our midfield is way too soft for this division in that department.

An experienced LB is essential.

Another Keeper...Declan Rudd from Charlton/Norwich would be perfect.

Basically 4 new players and Tomlin have his leash pulled in a bit.

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

Me too. It must be an analysis of all the games left with predicted scores otherwise how do PNE & Brentford finish below us and Forest & Wolves above?

I think if it is that, it`s about right.

Check out the predictions from former years to see how they faired in reality ;-)

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BobBobSuperBob

BobBobSuperBob

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, spudski said:

Without having to repeat a post, this is what I posted in another thread that basically gives my opinion to how I feel at the moment mate.

Quote...

We have the makings of a good team, but again too many weak points individually.

The one's that stand out for me are at LB. Joe Bryan, just isn't good enough at the defensive roll of a LB...great when going forward, but drifts, loses his shape, either goes in too close to the opponent and dives in or gives too much room. Can't stop a cross for toffee...first goal and when they hit the cross bar, both JB's fault.

Think we are ok at CB.

Matthews is improving every game. Think he's been feeling his way back to fitness and not over stretching himself. Got forward as well yesterday and produced a sublime cross for the goal.

GoN...his legs have gone imo. Has an engine...but it needs a turbo...plus his set piece deliveries are awful. Hardly ever gets past the first defender.

Pack...going about his job ok. Needs pace around him.

Smith...totally lacking this season imo.

Tomlin...he's our biggest problem. Sublime footballing skills, but so were mine in the school playground. Which is what it looks like when he plays. We don't need him collecting the ball on the edge of our own box. Playing a pass then just jogging about a bit. Then receiving it again and laying it off and standing still. We need him in the last third...playing those exquisite balls into Tammy or another pressing player. When he goes wandering...nobody seems to know where to cover the space he's left....then we get stretched and players are out of position and scrambling to find the right thing to do. For all his skills and passing...he causes more problems than he's worth, playing the way he does now. He needs to be restrained and told to play higher up field where we can penetrate better imo. I don't think he has the engine to play the way he does effectively. He was blowing out his arse after the first 15 mins on Saturday, and actually went hiding for a breather after one quick burst. I don't think he even had an effort on goal on Saturday. Very frustrating...looks nice...but it isn't effective.

Tammy...just needs some luck, a bit of composure and some physical help along side him. Movement could be better as well.

All the others are 'Squad' players imo.

Odowda, Pattersen ,Moore, Engval and Brownhill, were brought in for the near future imo. We've risked buying them cheaper with an intention of developing them here, rather than improving elsewhere and having to pay more for them.

The January window needs a Wilbs type player to help Tammy....someone with experience and quality and a good physicality and engine about him.

GoN needs replacing with Championship quality and experience. But with some physicality about them. Our midfield is way too soft for this division in that department.

An experienced LB is essential.

Another Keeper...Declan Rudd from Charlton/Norwich would be perfect.

Basically 4 new players and Tomlin have his leash pulled in a bit.

Interesting , honest and considered opinions there Spud :thumbsup:

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

So @spudski

SL has ousted LJ immediately and appointed you as Manager on a 4 yr contract

Are you going to persist with LJs apparent playing philosophy / style ?

 

Haha...I'd last 5 min's mate, if that :laugh:

But if you want an opinion...then at this moment in time, I would keep to the same philosophy, but like him, I'd be looking to make changes in the near future, and keep developing players and bring in better quality when available.

I think we are all frustrated...and that frustration takes us away from the bigger picture, as we want results right this moment. And this is the problem with the football industry. Too many managers getting sacked each year. all of them have taken on the previous managers players, and have had just one or two transfer windows to play with. Two months to sort out players is ridiculous...especially as so many clubs now play a game of waiting for the best price. You wouldn't even be able to run a normal business under those restrictions, let alone in a competitive game like football, where an injury or suspension can screw your season up in one instant.

This is why football is such a stupid game...transfer windows are just plain ridiculous. Clubs should be able to buy and sell whenever...the same as the rest of the world.

How any manager is expected to bring in a new philosophy or carry out one that our Club is preferring, and do it successfully in such a short term is almost impossible...especially when you take into account all the other competition.

As much as I'm frustrated at results...I'd keep doing the right things, as I'd know long term they would work. whether fans or manager would accept that is another matter.

I've never felt so frustrated as I have at the last two home games...you could see we aren't far off, but it's that lack of quality in small areas that's killing us. Each game becomes harder and it's easier to see the negatives than the positives when results are going against you.

With the player we have...I don't think LJ can do much different tbh.

If I were to try something different, I would use Tomlin in a different role. Based on his skills and reading off the game, and lack of physical capabilities, I'd consider playing him just in front of the back four almost like a sweeper...think Jan Molby. Use him at set pieces, but restrict his movement, as imo, he is given too much rope.

I'd also consider playing Magners at LB, which he does for Iceland.

A team that could look something like this...

A bit more speed and imo quality at the back.

Creativity in front of the back four.

Movement of creativity in the midfield.

Extra help for Tammy up front.

---------------------------------------------------Lucic--------------------------------------------------------

Matthews-----------------------Flint----------------------Moore-------------------------------Magners

--------------------------------------------------Tomlin--------------------------------------------------------

-----------------Freeman-------------------------------------------------------Bryan-----------------------

---------------------------------------------------Reid----------------------------------------------------------

----------------------Tammy------------------------------------------------Wilbs/Engval------------------

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Frenchay Red

Frenchay Red

Posted
Posted

Interesting, but I suspect we'd get truly mullered with that line up! No defensive qualities/protection in midfield. Tomlin is often easily dispossessed, Reid also.

We would be over run even more than we are now.

Problem is not with the players IMO. Just the way they are instructed to play.

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Frenchay Red said:

Interesting, but I suspect we'd get truly mullered with that line up! No defensive qualities/protection in midfield. Tomlin is often easily dispossessed, Reid also.

We would be over run even more than we are now.

Problem is not with the players IMO. Just the way they are instructed to play.

Interesting view FR...I can't remember seeing us being over run more than a couple times this season. We've been in control of games and when under threat, no more than any other team in the division.

I don't think GoN or smith have done anything of real worth in our recent games to justify inclusion.

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Frenchay Red

Frenchay Red

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, spudski said:

Interesting view FR...I can't remember seeing us being over run more than a couple times this season. We've been in control of games and when under threat, no more than any other team in the division.

I don't think GoN or smith have done anything of real worth in our recent games to justify inclusion.

Well on Tues there were gapping holes in our midfield. On Sat Brentford had more of the midfield and looked dangerous and you just knew that after missing chances it was only going to end one way. Huddersfield totally outplayed us and dominated midfield. Against Reading we were 2nd best most of the game. And although we looked better in the 2nd half, we were again given something of a footballing lesson at Brum.

Even our win against a poor Ipswich came from a fortunate pen and wonder strike, not from domination.

The last few months we have lost shape and pace. We don't press other teams when they are in possession nearly enough. We just drop back and play rather narrow. If we then win the ball back we are very slow to break in numbers and therefore give the opposition time to get behind the ball and deny us space.

This is the opposite of what we were doing at the start of the season.

Other teams work harder both with and without the ball, and have much more pace.

I doubt that it's a conspiracy by the players, has to be how LJ wants us to play and at the moment it's only taking us one way.

For me, at the moment in some ways he's worse than Cotts, insofar as we knew what Cotts was trying to do, even though it obviously wasn't working. Where as these days I have no idea what way LJ is trying to play. 

Hopefully the next few games he will manage to put the brakes on our slide.

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Frenchay Red said:

Well on Tues there were gapping holes in our midfield. On Sat Brentford had more of the midfield and looked dangerous and you just knew that after missing chances it was only going to end one way. Huddersfield totally outplayed us and dominated midfield. Against Reading we were 2nd best most of the game. And although we looked better in the 2nd half, we were again given something of a footballing lesson at Brum.

Even our win against a poor Ipswich came from a fortunate pen and wonder strike, not from domination.

The last few months we have lost shape and pace. We don't press other teams when they are in possession nearly enough. We just drop back and play rather narrow. If we then win the ball back we are very slow to break in numbers and therefore give the opposition time to get behind the ball and deny us space.

This is the opposite of what we were doing at the start of the season.

Other teams work harder both with and without the ball, and have much more pace.

I doubt that it's a conspiracy by the players, has to be how LJ wants us to play and at the moment it's only taking us one way.

For me, at the moment in some ways he's worse than Cotts, insofar as we knew what Cotts was trying to do, even though it obviously wasn't working. Where as these days I have no idea what way LJ is trying to play. 

Hopefully the next few games he will manage to put the brakes on our slide.

I agree FR, our midfield has been very poor...that's why I don't think GoN and Smith have influenced games very much. Tomlin is disruptive in the way he plays, as he leaves his position to go wandering wherever he likes. The other midfielders are constantly having to cover for him, as well as their own position. We create chances...but in doing so leave ourselves wide open. Even the stats prove this, as well as seeing with our own eyes. We create chances, but also have a busy defence.

That bust defence stems from our midfield playing way too expansive and leaving itself open. Tomlin...imo, is the reason our midfield is at 6's and 7's. We need more structure. That's why I suggested playing Tomlin in a more structured role, where he can still influence our attacks but from a deeper position. Much like he did against PNE...just don't allow him to wander...or go making nice looking passes, that are actually ineffective. I actually thought his best passes and distribution against PNE came from a deeper position. When he got further up field he became laboured and devoid of ideas. His vision for a pass from a deeper position could benefit Reids runs perfectly...who imo, is being stifled by Tomlin.

One of our biggest problems is also lack of movement. The amount of times, I've watched Goldbourne and Bryan have the ball on the left by the half way line, to look up and find Tammy the nearest person to them on the 'D', Reid and Freeman actually further across on the right, and the DM's sat deep and further across again. All passes easily blocked out by the opponents, so the ball has to be played back to the defence and move started again. Lazy movement and so frustrating. When wilbs came on on Saturday, he made more movement up front and came for the ball and made space, than any other player in the final third that game. His movement is excellent for his age. The others just seem to be static when we are slowly building play.

I've tried to show what I mean by the positions below.

 

formation.png

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BobBobSuperBob

BobBobSuperBob

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Redrobbin said:

So spud. Do you want Tomlin playing deeper, or higher up the pitch?

Because you have suggested both now. 

To be fair to @spudski

When he says higher ( And I for one totally agree ) he's talking about what he would like to see in the current set up / squad , under LJ

He made the comment about the idea of playing him deep when I asked him what he would do if he'd just been made the manager

Two different questions so two potentially different answers

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Redrobbin

Redrobbin

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

To be fair to @spudski

When he says higher ( And I for one totally agree ) he's talking about what he would like to see in the current set up / squad , under LJ

He made the comment about the idea of playing him deep when I asked him what he would do if he'd just been made the manager

Two different questions so two potentially different answers

Ok sorry for the mistake, speed reading perhaps. Did find it odd; as I do find spud talks a lot of sense. 

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