Our last 11 league defeats...

[Kid in the Riot]

Of our last 15 league games we've lost 11...all by a single goal. Seriously, what are the chances?

For a team to lose 11 of 15 games you'd assume they must be an awful team that had taken several drubbings, yet we haven't taken a single one. I was thinking when it happened that our 8 game club record losing run must've also been a record in English football as no team can possibly have lost 8 straight games by a goal before.

I know there have been threads discussing stats before and how we continue to create lots of chances and have a decent share of possession but still lose. That was the case again last night as we had more possession, overall shots, shots on target and corners than Leeds. I thought I'd look at the stats for Derby v Cardiff (3 - 4) and Cardiff had a grand total of 32% possession and 8 shots on target and have scored 4 goals away from home! We had 9 shots on target last night and just the 1 goal to show for it. Wigan won at Wolves last night despite having only 42% possession and 2 shots on target, Barnsley won 3-1 at Villa despite having only 43% possession and 6 shots on target etc you get the picture!

Now I believe that because these defeats have been narrow and statistically speaking we look to have been 'in' all these games is quite a significant reason as to why LJ is still in a job. If we had lost these games by an average of 2/3 goals (similar was happening in last couple of months under SC) then I think he'd have gone a few weeks ago.

To me though the margin of defeat cannot be an excuse when it is happening on such a consistent basis and this actually confirms that there is something quite fundamentally wrong. If you are unable to get draws or wins when you are only narrowly losing games then it shows a lack of understanding what the problems are and how to overcome them.

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying somebody else must be given the opportunity to try. The good news is it probably really is just a few basic tweaks that an experienced manager at this level could make and I believe we'd be up that table and away from the relegation zone in no time at all. Hate to say it but see Cardiff City for the perfect example of this.

Please act now Steve, the situation is still very much rescuable.

[Mr Hankey]

Completely agree, can't go on losing by the odd goal and still think that hes doing a good job.

I never like to see us lose but perhaps it was a shame we didnt get stuffed against forest and last night, might of been enough for SL to of seen a bit of sense and acted instead of sleepwalking into relegation by believing it will turn in our favour eventually as there is only the odd goal in it. It won't turn in our favour with LJ sadly.

[NOTBLUE]

I believe Blackburn have also lost a lot games by a single goal,at least we're capable of matching one team in this division..........

 

[Fordy62]

7 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Of our last 15 league games we've lost 11...all by a single goal. Seriously, what are the chances?

For a team to lose 11 of 15 games you'd assume they must be an awful team that had taken several drubbings, yet we haven't taken a single one. I was thinking when it happened that our 8 game club record losing run must've also been a record in English football as no team can possibly have lost 8 straight games by a goal before.

I know there have been threads discussing stats before and how we continue to create lots of chances and have a decent share of possession but still lose. That was the case again last night as we had more possession, overall shots, shots on target and corners than Leeds. I thought I'd look at the stats for Derby v Cardiff (3 - 4) and Cardiff had a grand total of 32% possession and 8 shots on target and have scored 4 goals away from home! We had 9 shots on target last night and just the 1 goal to show for it. Wigan won at Wolves last night despite having only 42% possession and 2 shots on target, Barnsley won 3-1 at Villa despite having only 43% possession and 6 shots on target etc you get the picture!

Now I believe that because these defeats have been narrow and statistically speaking we look to have been 'in' all these games is quite a significant reason as to why LJ is still in a job. If we had lost these games by an average of 2/3 goals (similar was happening in last couple of months under SC) then I think he'd have gone a few weeks ago.

To me though the margin of defeat cannot be an excuse when it is happening on such a consistent basis and this actually confirms that there is something quite fundamentally wrong. If you are unable to get draws or wins when you are only narrowly losing games then it shows a lack of understanding what the problems are and how to overcome them.

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying somebody else must be given the opportunity to try. The good news is it probably really is just a few basic tweaks that an experienced manager at this level could make and I believe we'd be up that table and away from the relegation zone in no time at all. Hate to say it but see Cardiff City for the perfect example of this.

Please act now Steve, the situation is still very much rescuable.

I'm pleased to see that your post didn't end up the way that I thought it was going at the start!

[phantom]

Surely this means it is more to do with the tactics?

Teams know how to play against us and win?

They know no matter how much possession we have we are not going to win games 

[Red Grovesy]

4 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying

LJ has also added six new players to the squad during this time. All six featured last night. Still lost by the odd goal in three.

[Davefevs]

10 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Of our last 15 league games we've lost 11...all by a single goal. Seriously, what are the chances?

For a team to lose 11 of 15 games you'd assume they must be an awful team that had taken several drubbings, yet we haven't taken a single one. I was thinking when it happened that our 8 game club record losing run must've also been a record in English football as no team can possibly have lost 8 straight games by a goal before.

I know there have been threads discussing stats before and how we continue to create lots of chances and have a decent share of possession but still lose. That was the case again last night as we had more possession, overall shots, shots on target and corners than Leeds. I thought I'd look at the stats for Derby v Cardiff (3 - 4) and Cardiff had a grand total of 32% possession and 8 shots on target and have scored 4 goals away from home! We had 9 shots on target last night and just the 1 goal to show for it. Wigan won at Wolves last night despite having only 42% possession and 2 shots on target, Barnsley won 3-1 at Villa despite having only 43% possession and 6 shots on target etc you get the picture!

Now I believe that because these defeats have been narrow and statistically speaking we look to have been 'in' all these games is quite a significant reason as to why LJ is still in a job. If we had lost these games by an average of 2/3 goals (similar was happening in last couple of months under SC) then I think he'd have gone a few weeks ago.

To me though the margin of defeat cannot be an excuse when it is happening on such a consistent basis and this actually confirms that there is something quite fundamentally wrong. If you are unable to get draws or wins when you are only narrowly losing games then it shows a lack of understanding what the problems are and how to overcome them.

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying somebody else must be given the opportunity to try. The good news is it probably really is just a few basic tweaks that an experienced manager at this level could make and I believe we'd be up that table and away from the relegation zone in no time at all. Hate to say it but see Cardiff City for the perfect example of this.

Please act now Steve, the situation is still very much rescuable.

Nice one.

Do you think that of the smaller volume of chances we concede are better chances than the ones we create?  I said last week that we defend a bit like Liverpool - in that the chances we give up always end up in the net (exaggeration).

Despite Flint's deflection, it was a really good chance for Hernandes.  Our chances are often having to be taken against bodies being thrown at us, under pressure etc.

The two open play Derby Goals were under no pressure

Ditto last night

 

[Kid in the Riot]

3 minutes ago, phantom said:

Surely this means it is more to do with the tactics?

Teams know how to play against us and win?

They know no matter how much possession we have we are not going to win games 

Also quite possibly players playing within themselves...if they had a manager that was really galvanising them then these narrow defeats could quite easily be turned into draws and narrow wins...maybe even more.

[Kid in the Riot]

12 minutes ago, Mr Hankey said:

Completely agree, can't go on losing by the odd goal and still think that hes doing a good job.

I never like to see us lose but perhaps it was a shame we didnt get stuffed against forest and last night, might of been enough for SL to of seen a bit of sense and acted instead of sleepwalking into relegation by believing it will turn in our favour eventually as there is only the odd goal in it. It won't turn in our favour with LJ sadly.

Yep, the end of the road for a manager is often signified by a heavy defeat ie Millen 5-0 at Blackpool or Tinnion 7-1 at Swansea which is ridiculous really as quite often the signs are there long before an event like this. The signs have been there for quite a while now with LJ, I'm beginning to wonder if we're struggling to find anyone interested. There's enough decent candidates out of work who I'd wager would do a better job...

[NOTBLUE]

1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Also quite possibly players playing within themselves...if they had a manager that was really galvanising them then these narrow defeats could quite easily be turned into draws and narrow wins...maybe even more.

A football manager needs to be authoritative,unfortunately LJ comes across as a bit of a pip squeak.

[Red Grovesy]

6 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Yep, the end of the road for a manager is often signified by a heavy defeat ie Millen 5-0 at Blackpool or Tinnion 7-1 at Swansea which is ridiculous really as quite often the signs are there long before an event like this. The signs have been there for quite a while now with LJ, I'm beginning to wonder if we're struggling to find anyone interested. There's enough decent candidates out of work who I'd wager would do a better job...

 

[pongo88]

Good summary Kid. I often feel that possession stats can be misleading as they don't tell you what sort of possession a team has. Is it pressing around the opposition's penalty area or meaningless sideways, backwards passes on the halfway line?Similarly, with shots on / off target you don't know if they are powderpuff efforts that could be saved by a 10 year old, or thunderbolts. 

There was a good interview by Eddie Jones, the England rugby manager, this week. He talked about how he had improved the transition from attack to defence, and how quickly players got back on their feet to ensure there are no holes in defence. He said that previously "I think some blokes had a cup of tea and a scone with jam and cream before they got off the ground" Although the tackling is obviously different,  I think City have the same problem. Far too often opposition players are given far too much room because of the lethargic closing down by City defenders. We need a manager who can get rid of the jam and scones attitude and get the team organised. A good team should always feel confident that if it takes a 1-0 lead it will win

[Mr Hankey]

9 minutes ago, NOTBLUE said:

A football manager needs to be authoritative,unfortunately LJ comes across as a bit of a pip squeak.

I reckon he may be the opposite, a horrible little bastard who is quite happy to destroy a players confidence......just my opinion on him though.

[JoeAman08]

We are good enough to score goals to keep us in games. We aren't good enough to keep goals out when(rarely) we score them first. Teams know they can soak up our pressure and pick us apart with a few passes and a cross or a set piece. Until we figure out how to stop teams from doing this, we will continue to lose most games. Leeds weren't spectacular last night but when they did get the ball they were direct. 3-4 passes, all forward, and they had a chance. Our possession lulls our team into a trance of complacency. We keep the ball but there is no urgency in it. Then we either create a chance or lose possession. If we don't score it, we don't snap out of the lax mode of possession quick enough and teams pounce on us. This is what I believe anyway. We do things at half speed and not the correct way on the ball and the team stays in this mode. 

What I mean is, watch us on the ball. Slow short passes that usually are behind that slow down a run. No sprints in behind instead safe passes to feet. No movement off the ball really just a few yards at a jog to get some space and pass it sideways or back again. Of course, this does lead to us getting some chances which is good. The problem I have is this style of play doesn't seem to wake the lads up(rightly or wrongly) and when they don't have the ball they still have this mode. They don't sprint back, they don't sense the danger and within 30-45 second there is a strong chance for the opposition. 

There may be nothing in this but it's my opinion. We are slow in everything we do with possession and that, to me, slows everyone down not just in possession but out of it. They don't get a feel for the speed in which teams can beat us. 

[Olé]

Will, what you say is true of recently, but in several of the actual run of defeats, the fact that we lost by one goal was less the product of us being competitive in games and more the fact we setup very compact and did not register seriously in attack. 

I'd characterise it as us at times playing not to lose or not to lose heavily rather than to win. This is one of the reasons I'm not a subscriber to the view that because LJ is losing by one goal, his run should be perceived as less calamitous. 

On the other hand I do think the more expansive football this past week since we added Cotterill and Taylor IS what LJ deserves some credit for, but relative only to the 8 game run. Whether it represents enough to rectify his weaknesses I don't know, certainly on evidence of selections and results it doesn't seem so.

On the whole for me one goal or not, like you, the record has long since become indefensible, but I don't think LJ is going anywhere. If that's simply because we are "just losing" by 1 goal, that's a ridiculous form of judgement.

[Show Me The Money!]

The one fact I don't think we can get at from is that this group of players should be doing a lot better than it is doing and LJ has to be responsible for that. 

For all the losing by a single goal the biggest worry has to be the fact we can't hold on to a lead and all the other teams now know this. They know that if they put more pressure on us we will just back right off and eventually crumble.

A change of manager would give us the chance to break that opinion.

I really would like LJ to turn this around but just don't think he can

[Olé]

18 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

We are good enough to score goals to keep us in games. We aren't good enough to keep goals out when(rarely) we score them first. Teams know they can soak up our pressure and pick us apart with a few passes and a cross or a set piece. Until we figure out how to stop teams from doing this, we will continue to lose most games. Leeds weren't spectacular last night but when they did get the ball they were direct. 3-4 passes, all forward, and they had a chance. Our possession lulls our team into a trance of complacency. We keep the ball but there is no urgency in it. Then we either create a chance or lose possession. If we don't score it, we don't snap out of the lax mode of possession quick enough and teams pounce on us. This is what I believe anyway. We do things at half speed and not the correct way on the ball and the team stays in this mode. 

What I mean is, watch us on the ball. Slow short passes that usually are behind that slow down a run. No sprints in behind instead safe passes to feet. No movement off the ball really just a few yards at a jog to get some space and pass it sideways or back again. Of course, this does lead to us getting some chances which is good. The problem I have is this style of play doesn't seem to wake the lads up(rightly or wrongly) and when they don't have the ball they still have this mode. They don't sprint back, they don't sense the danger and within 30-45 second there is a strong chance for the opposition. 

There may be nothing in this but it's my opinion. We are slow in everything we do with possession and that, to me, slows everyone down not just in possession but out of it. They don't get a feel for the speed in which teams can beat us. 

Such a good post @JoeAman08. Feature of the first half at Derby is we played with speed of movement and thinking that we had just not seen before. That typically ISN'T our DNA with or without the ball, as your post so accurately summarises.

[marmite]

59 minutes ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Of our last 15 league games we've lost 11...all by a single goal. Seriously, what are the chances?

For a team to lose 11 of 15 games you'd assume they must be an awful team that had taken several drubbings, yet we haven't taken a single one. I was thinking when it happened that our 8 game club record losing run must've also been a record in English football as no team can possibly have lost 8 straight games by a goal before.

I know there have been threads discussing stats before and how we continue to create lots of chances and have a decent share of possession but still lose. That was the case again last night as we had more possession, overall shots, shots on target and corners than Leeds. I thought I'd look at the stats for Derby v Cardiff (3 - 4) and Cardiff had a grand total of 32% possession and 8 shots on target and have scored 4 goals away from home! We had 9 shots on target last night and just the 1 goal to show for it. Wigan won at Wolves last night despite having only 42% possession and 2 shots on target, Barnsley won 3-1 at Villa despite having only 43% possession and 6 shots on target etc you get the picture!

Now I believe that because these defeats have been narrow and statistically speaking we look to have been 'in' all these games is quite a significant reason as to why LJ is still in a job. If we had lost these games by an average of 2/3 goals (similar was happening in last couple of months under SC) then I think he'd have gone a few weeks ago.

To me though the margin of defeat cannot be an excuse when it is happening on such a consistent basis and this actually confirms that there is something quite fundamentally wrong. If you are unable to get draws or wins when you are only narrowly losing games then it shows a lack of understanding what the problems are and how to overcome them.

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying somebody else must be given the opportunity to try. The good news is it probably really is just a few basic tweaks that an experienced manager at this level could make and I believe we'd be up that table and away from the relegation zone in no time at all. Hate to say it but see Cardiff City for the perfect example of this.

Please act now Steve, the situation is still very much rescuable.

Good post Kid and I agree completely. I said on a previous thread that the players we have are more than good enough to hold their own in this league so it must be the coaching and tactics that are wrong. We all (bar the manager) can see what is happening in matches. When we are still in the game, ie being level or even leading with time running out, we revert to dropping deep which always invites pressure. We have no out ball options from defence so it keeps coming back. Eventually we crack and concede late which is why it is so often a defeat by the odd goal. If 19,000 people can see what is wrong, why can't LJ and the coaches. We can lead teams by attacking them so why not keep attacking them. Shutting up shop does not work for us. You don't score goals when you are defending en masse!

[Kid in the Riot]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Nice one.

Do you think that of the smaller volume of chances we concede are better chances than the ones we create?  I said last week that we defend a bit like Liverpool - in that the chances we give up always end up in the net (exaggeration).

Despite Flint's deflection, it was a really good chance for Hernandes.  Our chances are often having to be taken against bodies being thrown at us, under pressure etc.

The two open play Derby Goals were under no pressure

Ditto last night

Absolutely. Even looking at games like Fleetwood and Rotherham at home, those two poor sides created the best chances in those games.

As others have said we are ponderous in possession, try and score goals through the middle (most congested part of the field) and over-complicate and often try and pass the ball into the net. Look at how we lost the Reading and Cardiff games - two long range efforts, another thing we rarely seem to try. Lack of confidence or coached out of doing.

[BobBobSuperBob]

2 hours ago, Mr Hankey said:

I reckon he may be the opposite, a horrible little bastard who is quite happy to destroy a players confidence......just my opinion on him though.

Listened to Chris Iwelumo on Talksport on Sunday when they review the championship

When talking about us he said he did his coaching badges with LJ and was then a player under him at Oldham

Said LJ is very precise , very detailed and would hammer a player who made a mistake

He said , in LJs defence , having hammered the player he would then work on th training ground with him

 

Make of that, pluses / minuses  what you will

[Show Me The Money!]

6 minutes ago, BobBobSuperBob said:

Listened to Chris Iwelumo on Talksport on Sunday when they review the championship

When talking about us he said he did his coaching badges with LJ and was then a player under him at Oldham

Said LJ is very precise , very detailed and would hammer a player who made a mistake

He said , in LJs defence , having hammered the player he would then work on th training ground with him

 

Make of that, pluses / minuses  what you will

That's just to get them down to his height and look them in the eyes 

[BCFCGav]

3 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Of our last 15 league games we've lost 11...all by a single goal. Seriously, what are the chances?

For a team to lose 11 of 15 games you'd assume they must be an awful team that had taken several drubbings, yet we haven't taken a single one. I was thinking when it happened that our 8 game club record losing run must've also been a record in English football as no team can possibly have lost 8 straight games by a goal before.

I know there have been threads discussing stats before and how we continue to create lots of chances and have a decent share of possession but still lose. That was the case again last night as we had more possession, overall shots, shots on target and corners than Leeds. I thought I'd look at the stats for Derby v Cardiff (3 - 4) and Cardiff had a grand total of 32% possession and 8 shots on target and have scored 4 goals away from home! We had 9 shots on target last night and just the 1 goal to show for it. Wigan won at Wolves last night despite having only 42% possession and 2 shots on target, Barnsley won 3-1 at Villa despite having only 43% possession and 6 shots on target etc you get the picture!

Now I believe that because these defeats have been narrow and statistically speaking we look to have been 'in' all these games is quite a significant reason as to why LJ is still in a job. If we had lost these games by an average of 2/3 goals (similar was happening in last couple of months under SC) then I think he'd have gone a few weeks ago.

To me though the margin of defeat cannot be an excuse when it is happening on such a consistent basis and this actually confirms that there is something quite fundamentally wrong. If you are unable to get draws or wins when you are only narrowly losing games then it shows a lack of understanding what the problems are and how to overcome them.

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying somebody else must be given the opportunity to try. The good news is it probably really is just a few basic tweaks that an experienced manager at this level could make and I believe we'd be up that table and away from the relegation zone in no time at all. Hate to say it but see Cardiff City for the perfect example of this.

Please act now Steve, the situation is still very much rescuable.

Can't argue with a word of this. The Cardiff example is spot on (if not rather painful).

[Talk Of The Town]

17 league defeats with a goal difference of minus 4. 

 

[ashton_fan]

It's not chance that we keep losing by one goal. Other managers have sussed out that if they defend in an organised fashion we can't score (especially with Tammy up front on his own) so as soon as they go a goal up they fall back, concede possession and let us attack them. If by some chance we score they attack until they score again (doesn't usually take long) then repeat the same. 

[Esmond Million's Bung]

3 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Of our last 15 league games we've lost 11...all by a single goal. Seriously, what are the chances?

For a team to lose 11 of 15 games you'd assume they must be an awful team that had taken several drubbings, yet we haven't taken a single one. I was thinking when it happened that our 8 game club record losing run must've also been a record in English football as no team can possibly have lost 8 straight games by a goal before.

I know there have been threads discussing stats before and how we continue to create lots of chances and have a decent share of possession but still lose. That was the case again last night as we had more possession, overall shots, shots on target and corners than Leeds. I thought I'd look at the stats for Derby v Cardiff (3 - 4) and Cardiff had a grand total of 32% possession and 8 shots on target and have scored 4 goals away from home! We had 9 shots on target last night and just the 1 goal to show for it. Wigan won at Wolves last night despite having only 42% possession and 2 shots on target, Barnsley won 3-1 at Villa despite having only 43% possession and 6 shots on target etc you get the picture!

Now I believe that because these defeats have been narrow and statistically speaking we look to have been 'in' all these games is quite a significant reason as to why LJ is still in a job. If we had lost these games by an average of 2/3 goals (similar was happening in last couple of months under SC) then I think he'd have gone a few weeks ago.

To me though the margin of defeat cannot be an excuse when it is happening on such a consistent basis and this actually confirms that there is something quite fundamentally wrong. If you are unable to get draws or wins when you are only narrowly losing games then it shows a lack of understanding what the problems are and how to overcome them.

LJ has not been able to get that extra few % from his players needed to turn our fortunes and after over 3 months of trying somebody else must be given the opportunity to try. The good news is it probably really is just a few basic tweaks that an experienced manager at this level could make and I believe we'd be up that table and away from the relegation zone in no time at all. Hate to say it but see Cardiff City for the perfect example of this.

Please act now Steve, the situation is still very much rescuable.

This is absolutely spot on, our problems are simple to spot and are in the same old same old category, I have said in another thread the first goal last night regardless of a trip or push, we were caught out by a quick free kick because we lack leaders and organisers and for the 2nd again regardless of a wicked deflection Golbourne's part in the lead up to that goal is where the damage is caused allowing the shot in the first place and boy have we seen that from Golbourne far too often but apparently he's better than Magnusson who cannot even make the squad.

And again Bryan had a clear cut chance and decided to caress the ball instead of putting his boot through it, chance gone.

Bottom line LJ has to go and go now, we have the squad but need a fresh approach, he is way out of his depth.

 

[...]

9 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

This is absolutely spot on, our problems are simple to spot and are in the same old same old category, I have said in another thread the first goal last night regardless of a trip or push, we were caught out by a quick free kick because we lack leaders and organisers and for the 2nd again regardless of a wicked deflection Golbourne's part in the lead up to that goal is where the damage is caused allowing the shot in the first place and boy have we seen that from Golbourne far too often but apparently he's better than Magnusson who cannot even make the squad.

And again Bryan had a clear cut chance and decided to caress the ball instead of putting his boot through it, chance gone.

Bottom line LJ has to go and go now, we have the squad but need a fresh approach, he is way out of his depth.

 

Are you saying LJ should be sacked, EMB?

A) 

B) 

Lets be very clear.

 

tfj

[Esmond Million's Bung]

6 minutes ago, Taxi for Johnson said:

Are you saying LJ should be sacked, EMB?

A) 

B) 

Lets be very clear.

 

tfj

or am I saying as a strictly experimental test let's get relegated and give him the biggest budget in league one and say 3 more transfer windows and see if our bad luck, our having to play teams who are better than us, only losing by 1 goal, referees who hate us are the reason we are in our current position or could it be poor signings, poor tactics, poor team selections and far too much tinkering that are too blame.

 

[wendyredredrobin]

Lose 2-1 or 7-1 the outcome is the same.  Zero points.

[TV Tom]

36 minutes ago, Bobby Bollax said:

17 league defeats with a goal difference of minus 4. 

 

17 league defeats, 16 of them by the odd goal, an incredible statistic 

[havanatopia]

3 hours ago, Kid in the Riot said:

Please act now Steve, the situation is still just about rescuable.

Just amended that for you.