Not getting relegated, relax!

[DT The Optimist]

I post this with my 'helmet on'.  I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three.  A few facts to shoot at me with!

The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case.  I quote the last three seasons as facts

• 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points.  Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and  look what followed.......)
• 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on  46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers.
• 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. 

We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left.  On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games !  Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you !

 

We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home.  

We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams.

I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct).  So, a relaxing final third of the season.  

[Buster Footman's T shirt]

Not sure it will be a relaxing final 3rd but I do think we will scrape survival. This is based more on the fact that there are 3 worse sides than us rather than a positive surge in form. Whatever happens we have moved backwards on the pitch from where we were at the end of last season

[Guest ploppy]

2 minutes ago, Buster Footman's T shirt said:

Not sure it will be a relaxing final 3rd but I do think we will scrape survival. This is based more on the fact that there are 3 worse sides than us rather than a positive surge in form. Whatever happens we have moved backwards on the pitch from where we were at the end of last season

Are Wigan worse than us? I hope so but form suggests otherwise!

[Buster Footman's T shirt]

3 minutes ago, ploppy said:

Are Wigan worse than us? I hope so but form suggests otherwise!

Not sure about Wigan but I think Burton (based on their away record) are just slightly worse. Like I said I think we will just scrape survival...probably by default.

[Chairman Mao]

Even scraping survival above Burton would be a pathetic outcome and show that, despite millions to spend Johnson has not progressed the club at all.

[Fordy62]

On your calculations we need 0.86666 points per game for safety. 

Over the last 17 games we've achieved 0.47 ppg. 

Hmmmmmm. It's far from comfortable. 

[MelksRed]

6 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said:

Even scraping survival above Burton would be a pathetic outcome and show that, despite millions to spend Johnson has not progressed the club at all.

At the risk of drawing some criticism......I find it hard to say we haven't improved.....yea we've lost a lot of games but not by more than one goal.....we haven't seen the trouncings we had last season.......now the losses seemingly have slowed......we can but hope that the team build on rock bottom......using it as a firm foundation for great things......unfortunately only time will tell. 

[weepywall]

Don't really understand this 3 teams worse than us statement, I think there is only 1 team worse than us and that is Rotherham, quite possible we will be in bottom 3 by the end of the month.

 

[WolfOfWestStreet]

Is that what we're doing now scabbing relegation every year. Survival is still a failure. 

[Sweeneys Penalties]

well...the Current Form table says we're not bottom 3

 

http://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/form/matches:6/type:home-and-away

 

but... as they say, previous performance is may not necessarily indicate future performance (or something like that)

[DT The Optimist]

15 minutes ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

Is that what we're doing now scabbing relegation every year. Survival is still a failure. 

You are spot on Wolf.  SL must be having a 'discussion' at the appropriate time about what has gone on, however the post was that perhaps we only need 12 points from 15 games to stay and avoid the bottom 3 positions (as per history)  Of course, this might be a different year !  

If we are not competent or capable of that then we do deserve to be in this league, in anyway shape or form.  However, the transfer window for us, has been huge.  Taylor will score goals, Hegeler is pure quality, Wright is good, and a new keeper.  Its like the spine of the side has been strengthened  and improved. The side cannot go backwards anymore, can it ?

[Guest ploppy]

45 minutes ago, Fordy62 said:

On your calculations we need 0.86666 points per game for safety. 

Over the last 17 games we've achieved 0.47 ppg. 

Hmmmmmm. It's far from comfortable. 

Over the last four games we have achieved 1.25 points per game. I know a much smaller sample size but it's also relevant that we changed nearly half our first team in January. Fingers crossed it's green shoots and we can just about do it.

[And Its Smith]

1 hour ago, DT The Optimist said:

I post this with my 'helmet on'.  I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three.  A few facts to shoot at me with!

The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case.  I quote the last three seasons as facts

• 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points.  Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and  look what followed.......)
• 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on  46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers.
• 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. 

We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left.  On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games !  Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you !

 

We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home.  

We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams.

I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct).  So, a relaxing final third of the season.  

It's a naive comparison. How many points were these teams on after this number of games?  If you don't know that then comparisons are pointless 

[BCFC Rich]

The table at this point(ish) last season:

Pos   Team                           Played        GD            Points

19      Blackburne                 30              +1               34

20      Bristol C                      32              -19             34

21      MK                              32              -19              31

22      Rotherham                  32             -21               26

23      Bolton                         32              -22              25

24      Charlton                      32              -33              25

[RumRed]

2 hours ago, DT The Optimist said:

I post this with my 'helmet on'.  I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three.  A few facts to shoot at me with!

The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case.  I quote the last three seasons as facts

• 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points.  Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and  look what followed.......)
• 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on  46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers.
• 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. 

We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left.  On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games !  Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you !

 

We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home.  

We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams.

I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct).  So, a relaxing final third of the season.  

I'd like to make a pithy comment but can't be assed.  I'll just say 'bollox' instead.

[Guest ploppy]

8 minutes ago, RichardEdd said:

The table at this point(ish) last season:

Pos   Team                           Played        GD            Points

19      Blackburne                 30              +1               34

20      Bristol C                      32              -19             34

21      MK                              32              -19              31

22      Rotherham                  32             -21               26

23      Bolton                         32              -22              25

24      Charlton                      32              -33              25

The difference between goal differences and the comparative lack of difference between our points totals is astounding.

[samo II]

27 minutes ago, Bullbag said:

Ah yes, great thread............Burton and QPR winning, Wigan holding Preston.

I despair sometimes, people just can't see the precarious position we're in.

All this 'three teams worse than us' rubbish, I count one, that being Rotherham.

Yep.

Recent form from Blackburn, Wigan and Burton doesn't suggest they are that much worse than us, and results today could leave us level on points with the relegation zone - last year at this time we were five points clear.

19 minutes ago, RedDave said:

It's a naive comparison. How many points were these teams on after this number of games?  If you don't know that then comparisons are pointless 

As mentioned above; the dogfight is tighter than at this time last year, and our form from this point forward was blistering - no evidence we're prepared to go on a similar run.

We're in serious trouble; can't understand why people are hiding behind this myth others are much worse - they aren't.

[Portland Bill]

2 hours ago, DT The Optimist said:

I post this with my 'helmet on'.  I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three.  A few facts to shoot at me with!

The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case.  I quote the last three seasons as facts

• 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points.  Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and  look what followed.......)
• 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on  46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers.
• 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. 

We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left.  On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games !  Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you !

 

We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home.  

We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams.

I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct).  So, a relaxing final third of the season.  

We have lots of posts on this subject, all I can say is that if it was always so predictable, then Sky bet/William hill etc would be bankrupt, and I would be a billionaire!!

[Inactive user]

2 hours ago, DT The Optimist said:

I post this with my 'helmet on'.  I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three.  A few facts to shoot at me with!

The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case.  I quote the last three seasons as facts

• 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points.  Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and  look what followed.......)
• 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on  46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers.
• 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. 

We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left.  On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games !  Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you !

 

We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home.  

We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams.

I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct).  So, a relaxing final third of the season.  

Good balance. Agree we ain't going down.

[RumRed]

3 minutes ago, Rednwhiterob said:

Good balance. Agree we ain't going down.

If you can tell the EFL that it'd be great.

[Slack Bladder]

And we might not have Tammy for the run in, depending on his injury. Which is a worry.

 

[Bob Thompson]

6 New players need time to fit in. It's going to be tight.

[RumRed]

1 minute ago, Bob Thompson said:

6 New players need time to fit in. It's going to be tight.

Well the bench will be.

[WhistleHappy]

3 minutes ago, Bob Thompson said:

6 New players need time to fit in. It's going to be tight.

Said the actress to the bishop!

[deadredfred]

If we're looking at form tables and previous seasons points tally's to justify our resistance to relegation then that's very telling isn't it?

The only form table that matters is the league table. Over the course of the season to date, we're the 20th best team out of 24, which cannot be argued.

With the exception of Rotherham, who look dead and buried, as far up as Brentford in 15th, only 5 points separate us. That gives some reason for optimism if we can string something together, but our form is nothing short of woeful.

It's a very similar pattern to last seasons table where only 6 points separated Rotherham scraping survival in 21st with 49pts to Blackburn in 15th. We finished 18th with 52.

I'd snap your hand off for that now, which is justified reflection on what has been an abysmal season. 

 

 

[cidered abroad]

DT The Optimist is living in a dream world of unreality. 

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

2 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said:

Is that what we're doing now scabbing relegation every year. Survival is still a failure. 

and pretty tedious considering the investment.

I cling, rightly or wrongly, to the belief that when this group of players actually 'click' then we've got a pretty good team. Although when is becoming finite.

[Guest Redandy]

2 hours ago, Buster Footman's T shirt said:

Not sure about Wigan but I think Burton (based on their away record) are just slightly worse. Like I said I think we will just scrape survival...probably by default.

Beat Norwich today. Can you see a Johnson team doing that.

[Tears in rain]

1 minute ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said:

and pretty tedious considering the investment.

I cling, rightly or wrongly, to the belief that when this group of players actually 'click' then we've got a pretty good team. Although when is becoming finite.

How long till the click and gelling happens? 

We have capable players definitely, but they don't seem to produce as a unit. So I understand what you mean I just hope they click from Wednesday! 

Fingers crossed and all that 

[old_eastender]

1 minute ago, Redandy said:

Beat Norwich today. Can you see a Johnson team doing that.

Nop, still can't believe the blinkered optimism of the LJ backers, we are up sh1t creek and the longer LJ is in charge the less grip we have on the paddles!

[myol'man]

Wolves at home is starting to look like a six pointer now and Forest, having sacked the manager, are sinking fast

[Guest Star of a gunner]

50 minutes ago, Redandy said:

Beat Norwich today. Can you see a Johnson team doing that.

I can't see us beating anyone at the moment  , if we get a 4 or 5 goal head start we may scrape a win 2 league wins in three months is a f.c.u.k i  ng  disgrace sorry to say it but we're going down  . But don't worry I'll still be cheering us on like I always do .

 

[cidered abroad]

55 minutes ago, myol'man said:

Wolves at home is starting to look like a six pointer now and Forest, having sacked the manager, are sinking fast

And still Forest beat us and so did Wolves. We are incapable of winning except a pathetic 1-0 against Rotherham. Did anyone notice how Cardiff walloped the Millers today?

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

On your calculations we need 0.86666 points per game for safety. 

Over the last 17 games we've achieved 0.47 ppg. 

Hmmmmmm. It's far from comfortable. 

No idea why 17 was chosen?

Let's see if I can massage the figures.

If we take 31st January to be a cut off time (last day of transfer window), our average points were 1 point per match (28 points in 28 games) to this point.
Why choose this time? For the sake of argument, the team starts to change from this date because the new players are starting to come into the team (the average was better before this date if you care to check).

Since 31st Jan, we've played 3 games, the average point per game is 1.3.

Worst case scenario (if we look at averages), 15 points. Best scenario, 19 points. So a range of 47 to 51 points

Now to dice the figures in other ways, our form so far:
Away form: Wins 2  ; Draws 3 ; Losses 11 - 7 away games left so 21 points on offer - away form is poor possibly 5 points tops (based on season form - not some figure plucked out of the air).
Home form: Wins 7; Draws 2 ; Losses 6 - 8 home games left so 24 points on offer - home form is better, maybe 12 points tops.
Maybe 17 points (within the range above) - 49 points

My way with messing with the figures is just as valid as those who choose to mess with their figures to prove their point. Personally I think it's all BS because the team has changed as a consequence of the transfer window, the injuries just picked up etc. In effect, the form has been reset and as yet, no one can say one way or the other whether it's a positive change or a negative change.

Onwards and upwards.

[norwichrobin]

Brighton away can see it now boiling hot day massive away support city need 4 points from last 2 games to be sure...

[BS4 on Tour...]

18 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

And still Forest beat us and so did Wolves. We are incapable of winning except a pathetic 1-0 against Rotherham. Did anyone notice how Cardiff walloped the Millers today?

Cardiff have got a brill manager at this level...not at all surprised by their resurgence since he joined

[BS4 on Tour...]

Don't forget the Bristol Post article a month ago in which LJ told us 'not to worry about relegation' and reassured us we were staying up....

[RumRed]

16 minutes ago, bcfcfinker said:

No idea why 17 was chosen?

Let's see if I can massage the figures.

If we take 31st January to be a cut off time (last day of transfer window), our average points were 1 point per match (28 points in 28 games) to this point.
Why choose this time? For the sake of argument, the team starts to change from this date because the new players are starting to come into the team (the average was better before this date if you care to check).

Since 31st Jan, we've played 3 games, the average point per game is 1.3.

Worst case scenario (if we look at averages), 15 points. Best scenario, 19 points. So a range of 47 to 51 points

Now to dice the figures in other ways, our form so far:
Away form: Wins 2  ; Draws 3 ; Losses 11 - 7 away games left so 21 points on offer - away form is poor possibly 5 points tops (based on season form - not some figure plucked out of the air).
Home form: Wins 7; Draws 2 ; Losses 6 - 8 home games left so 24 points on offer - home form is better, maybe 12 points tops.
Maybe 17 points (within the range above) - 49 points

My way with messing with the figures is just as valid as those who choose to mess with their figures to prove their point. Personally I think it's all BS because the team has changed as a consequence of the transfer window, the injuries just picked up etc. In effect, the form has been reset and as yet, no one can say one way or the other whether it's a positive change or a negative change.

Onwards and upwards.

A lot of words but still delusional.

[samo II]

Just now, BS4 on Tour... said:

Don't forget the Bristol Post article a month ago in which LJ told us 'not to worry about relegation' and reassured us we were staying up....

Well, if we do go down, I'd expect him to resign.

That's not a personal attack, or me saying we will get relegated, but I don't think it would be sensible to retain a head coach who said that, then got us relegated.

I'd hope we'd learn from keeping SO'D after the last relegation - didn't work.

I hope it doesn't come to that, of course, but do not believe SL would retain him were we back to League One next year.

[AppyDAZE]

Who says this, Frankie?

 

I can see the t-shirts right now

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, RumRed said:

A lot of words but still delusional.

I'll take delusional over stupid any day

[spudski]

I think it's going to be a close call...but I think we may clear the drop by the skin of our teeth.

I can actually see us dropping into the bottom 3 at some point over March, but I think April's fixtures will be our saving grace.

March is worse than this month imo...playing two 'six pointers'...Burton and Wigan....and in form Norwich and Huddersfield.

The pressure is definitely going to be on the players and LJ.

How I look at it...SL wants LJ here. People calling for his sacking just adds needless pressure.

A new manager doesn't mean success...you only have to look at Zola at Birmingham for that.

I ask a question...is it more beneficial to be the 12th man and have a backs to the wall mentality and get behind the Club, regardless of your feelings?

Or constantly put pressure on the players and LJ....as if they aren't under enough?

For all the talk of sackings...I think certain fans need to except LJ isn't going anywhere...and I do believe SL will keep him even if we drop.

I remember the season under Benny. 1998-99. We finished bottom with 42 points and only 9 wins...below the likes of Oxford, Bury, Port Vale, Portsmouth, Crewe, Swindon, Stockport, Grimsby, Bradford, Bolton, Sheff Utd and Tranmere...yes that was the 'Championship'...how times have changed. Imagine being a supporter of those teams now. I suggest we have been quite lucky by comparison.

In that season, the fans every game really got behind the team. They really gave support. It was a great season for supporting the club, even though we went down. The manager and players tried...like they are now.

I get the frustration...and I think it mounts more every season, as fans think 'FFS not again'. The frustration and bewilderment as to 'why' is getting worse every season.

I think we all feel rather punch drunk atm...it's hard to know what to say or do these days.

[Dr Balls]

52 minutes ago, spudski said:

I think it's going to be a close call...but I think we may clear the drop by the skin of our teeth.

I can actually see us dropping into the bottom 3 at some point over March, but I think April's fixtures will be our saving grace.

March is worse than this month imo...playing two 'six pointers'...Burton and Wigan....and in form Norwich and Huddersfield.

The pressure is definitely going to be on the players and LJ.

How I look at it...SL wants LJ here. People calling for his sacking just adds needless pressure.

A new manager doesn't mean success...you only have to look at Zola at Birmingham for that.

I ask a question...is it more beneficial to be the 12th man and have a backs to the wall mentality and get behind the Club, regardless of your feelings?

Or constantly put pressure on the players and LJ....as if they aren't under enough?

For all the talk of sackings...I think certain fans need to except LJ isn't going anywhere...and I do believe SL will keep him even if we drop.

I remember the season under Benny. 1998-99. We finished bottom with 42 points and only 9 wins...below the likes of Oxford, Bury, Port Vale, Portsmouth, Crewe, Swindon, Stockport, Grimsby, Bradford, Bolton, Sheff Utd and Tranmere...yes that was the 'Championship'...how times have changed. Imagine being a supporter of those teams now. I suggest we have been quite lucky by comparison.

In that season, the fans every game really got behind the team. They really gave support. It was a great season for supporting the club, even though we went down. The manager and players tried...like they are now.

I get the frustration...and I think it mounts more every season, as fans think 'FFS not again'. The frustration and bewilderment as to 'why' is getting worse every season.

I think we all feel rather punch drunk atm...it's hard to know what to say or do these days.

Spud

I have a horrible feeling that you are right about SL & LJ. If he was going to get rid of him, he would have done it already. And if we go down, why bother replacing him. That may indeed have been the rationale last season as well.

The problem is that LJ was already "marmite" with a large section of the fans. And now it is more extreme. Unless the form picks up very soon, I fear that the atmosphere will get toxic, and that will do nothing for the players and their confidence.

What really has not helped is all the hype & BS surrounding us at the start of the season. If we had come out said we want to consolidate and become an established club at this level that would have been much better than the infamous "Europa League within 5 years" comment. That really was s hostage to fortune.

I don't think LJ is completely clueless, but I think he is inexperienced and would have benefitted from a Director of Football. But it's all too late now for this season unless SL has a major change of heart, which seems unlikely. However should we somehow manage to stay up we still need a major stocktake this summer and try to ensure we avoid this kind of shambles happening again.

[1960maaan]

Even if I try to be optimistic the result is a downer. 

So, we somehow stay up. All that means is another year of the same. Same baffling teams, subs etc. Sending our only cover out on loan. £M's of players at home as the team struggles.

OK , some of that maybe a little unfair but really, what real improvement have we seen? What have we seen in the last 4 or 5 months that says he can really move us forward?

i said after Reading I was done, I just feel resigned to our fate. I think we will go down unless all luck we have missed out on so far this season turns up in the run in. 

I know changing managers does not guarantee anything, and personal I think it's too late. What SL sees in Johnson after what we have endured this year I do not know but we are stuck with him for the foreseeable. 

I honestly believe that know we are in the lap of the Gods(for you agnostics trust to luck). It's going to go to the wire, that in it's self is failure .

Europa league / freight Rover same diff.

 

[Unan]

Some people are in such denial, can't believe they actually go to the games or/and know a thing about football.

[RumRed]

3 hours ago, bcfcfinker said:

I'll take delusional over stupid any day

Fair enough....

[Leveller]

3 hours ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

Some people are in such denial, can't believe they actually go to the games or/and know a thing about football.

It's not all denial - it's not necessarily accepting that change would be better. Many will point to Cardiff, but look at Brum & Villa. Many Villa fans now want Bruce out. I bet many of our fans would have welcomed Zola or Bruce a few months ago. A big name manager does not guarantee improving things.

[Unan]

31 minutes ago, Leveller said:

It's not all denial - it's not necessarily accepting that change would be better. Many will point to Cardiff, but look at Brum & Villa. Many Villa fans now want Bruce out. I bet many of our fans would have welcomed Zola or Bruce a few months ago. A big name manager does not guarantee improving things.

One real example of a big name not working, Villa are a basket case and Brum doesn't count as Zolas got no experience. Don't see every other team that go up every year complaining about their big name manager (which they are 90% of the time). Look at the records of every manager that's finished 6th or above for the past 10 years, guarantee a tiny minority are unknowns/inexperienced. Then do the same but the other end, guarantee similar/opposite results.

[BS4 on Tour...]

3 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

One real example of a big name not working, Villa are a basket case and Brum doesn't count as Zolas got no experience...

Zola's got no experience?! As manager, he took Watford to the championship play off final in his first season, finishing third. And he managed West Ham in the premier league...he's had other managerial jobs too, including a role in the management of Italy U21s...

[Inactive user]

21 minutes ago, tinman85 said:

Can you see us winning at Blackburn or Wigan? 

I can see us having more points than them at the end if the season.

[Unan]

14 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Zola's got no experience?! As manager, he took Watford to the championship play off final in his first season, finishing third. And he managed West Ham in the premier league...he's had other managerial jobs too, including a role in the management of Italy U21s...

He had a good season yes. My point was he doesn't have a track record at this level.

[BS4 on Tour...]

Just now, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

No Championship experience, as in no real experience. Had a good season yes but my point was he doesn't have a track record at all at this level.

Apologies, when you said 'Zola's got no experience' I thought you meant as a manager, not as a championship manager...

[Unan]

1 minute ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Apologies, when you said 'Zola's got no experience' I thought you meant as a manager, not as a championship manager...

No worries, my fault, badly worded 

[BCFC Rich]

24 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

One real example of a big name not working, Villa are a basket case and Brum doesn't count as Zolas got no experience. Don't see every other team that go up every year complaining about their big name manager (which they are 90% of the time). Look at the records of every manager that's finished 6th or above for the past 10 years, guarantee a tiny minority are unknowns/inexperienced. Then do the same but the other end, guarantee similar/opposite results.

3

Off the top of my head we have had - Adkins, Dyche, Jokanovic, Karanka, Neil, McDermott, Rodgers. There are loads more I sure (if I was in the mood to look it up) some these guys have gone on to get more experience/become more well known but they weren't when they won promotion.

[Unan]

2 minutes ago, RichardEdd said:

Off the top of my head we have had - Adkins, Dyche, Jokanovic, Karanka, Neil, McDermott, Rodgers. There are loads more I sure (if I was in the mood to look it up) some these guys have gone on to get more experience/become more well known but they weren't when they won promotion.

That's still the minority, I'd love LJ to follow in their footsteps but does it look like that'll happen? With us? 

The fact is, generally a known (for being good at this level) manager will do a good job. A few 'unknowns' will do a good job, the majority won't.

[BCFC Rich]

4 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

That's still the minority, I'd love LJ to follow in their footsteps but does it look like that'll happen? With us? 

The fact is, generally a known (for being good at this level) manager will do a good job. A few 'unknowns' will do a good job, the majority won't.

 

Okay just to be pedantic I had a quick look and I make it 16-18 in the last 10 years who were in this category when the got promotion (obviously some of them are not in that category now. 3 managers a year get promoted - so out of 30 over half were inexperienced/not well known. 

[Garland-sweden]

We have still to play Blackburn and Wigan away. They are like us, not Chelsea. Think we have 50-50 in those games. The table dont look good at the moment. It is and gonna be an thriller. Coyr!

[Inactive user]

53 minutes ago, Garland-sweden said:

We have still to play Blackburn and Wigan away. They are like us, not Chelsea. Think we have 50-50 in those games. The table dont look good at the moment. It is and gonna be an thriller. Coyr!

One win against those will be good enough IMO.

[ScottishRed]

" A new manager doesn't mean success...you only have to look at Zola at Birmingham for that. "

Or you could look at countless examples of the exact opposite dynamic.

[City fan 1982]

Or the right boss and we. Could be where Cardiff are in the table 

[exAtyeoMax]

1 hour ago, ScottishRed said:

" A new manager doesn't mean success...you only have to look at Zola at Birmingham for that. "

Or you could look at countless examples of the exact opposite dynamic.

…as they did in the BEP.

Well, it was inconclusive.

"Sticking with the same manager doesn't mean success."

[Son of Fred]

19 hours ago, DT The Optimist said:

You are spot on Wolf.  SL must be having a 'discussion' at the appropriate time about what has gone on, however the post was that perhaps we only need 12 points from 15 games to stay and avoid the bottom 3 positions (as per history)  Of course, this might be a different year !  

If we are not competent or capable of that then we do deserve to be in this league, in anyway shape or form.  However, the transfer window for us, has been huge.  Taylor will score goals, Hegeler is pure quality, Wright is good, and a new keeper.  Its like the spine of the side has been strengthened  and improved. The side cannot go backwards anymore, can it ?

In no way is wright an improvement on Magners....nor has he improved the side.

Think we need a point a game to squeek home but genuinely have my doubts that we have the fight in the side to do it-they are seemingly not mentally strong together as a group..

[Davefevs]

9 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Apologies, when you said 'Zola's got no experience' I thought you meant as a manager, not as a championship manager...

 

9 hours ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

No worries, my fault, badly worded 

Aw bless you both, being all nice and apologetic. 

[...]

Not getting relegated, relax!

City currently 21st in table, current form league (last 10 games):-

 

QPR - 14 points from possible 30

Wolves - 13 

Burton - 12

Wigan - 12

Forest - 10

Blackburn - 9

Villa - 8

City - 5

Rotherham - 4.

 

Rotherham are already 'gone', and the two teams below us are catching us at the rate of between 4 and 7 points per 10 games.

 

 

tfj

 

[samo II]

48 minutes ago, Robert the bruce said:

Think we need a point a game to squeek home but genuinely have my doubts that we have the fight in the side to do it-they are seemingly not mentally strong together as a group..

I'd agree, and for me it is the fact that we're going from one game to the next with some saying "well, we might not have got anything today, but next game/games in March are all must win..." that has my head spinning.

We need points immediately, because I don't know if we have it in us to claw ourselves out of the pit.

Look at Wigan and Burton; they are already scrapping for their lives, and look to be doing okay at it - better than us in fact.

Below is the table from 26th December 2016, showing the bottom ten sides - since that time, we've gained just five points, with only Rotherham getting fewer (four).  Everyone else is better at getting points than we are.

Wigan and Burton have each made 12, and Blackburn nine; not just a few more, but sizeably more points - they are coming for us (or in Burton's case have come and gone above us).

I'm not here 'being negative', as some have chosen to brand it, but pragmatic - we are not taking enough points-per-game in order to be as complacent as some seem to be; we are in an unquestionably worse scenario then this time last year, and the team need to start playing like they realise this, because nice football for 45 mins isn't going to keep us in this league, results are.

I hate the way Warnock encourage gamesmanship and foul play in pursuit of results, but it is a stone cold fact his teams get get what they need - even our own players have publicly acknowledged we need more of that attitude, but have utterly failed to come through with anything like it on the pitch.

And for those saying "stats don't take account of the transfer window activity", two points; our opponents also got to use it too (Wigan bought a whole new team, with their new keeper winning them a point with a pen save yesterday, and Kightly has been a revelation at Burton since he's arrived), and the players we had prior to January were capable of beating teams like Leeds and Forest, while we have since failed to get anything off the same opponents with much changed sides - does that suggest progress to you?  

Other clubs' fans are actively bemused at why we had radically altered a squad that looked top-half capable when besting them in Autumn, even more so when you explain the players we had them are still around, just not being picked. It's absolutely insane.

I fully expect the penny to drop for many who sit here throwing out vailed accustions of disloyalty at others (because that's what "you're so negative" is implying) when they realise we'll need to hit promotion form over the final ten games or so because we've failed to grab enough in less pressured situations - they'll be howling as loud as anyone when League One looks likely.

I also expect many (far, far too late, I might add) to realise that the much vaunted form of the tail end of last season may have been because of the change of manager, not necessarily the specific manager, a la our immediate lift in form under Pembo (not attributing our safety to him either, but the change itself).  They'll be demanding action too, and there's none so zealous as converts - you watch.

And for the record; every single game I pray that my fears are misplaced, and that LJ's plans and tactics click, and that together with the undoubtably talented group of players we've accumulated, we swagger to the finish line, safe by a number of well earned points taken from impressive performances.  

But there is absolutely nothing beyond absolute blind hope supporting that possibility for me anymore.

We need to start getting results immediately or we've better get ready for League One.

[Unan]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

 

Aw bless you both, being all nice and apologetic. 

And it's that easy  take note OTIB

[Davefevs]

17 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

And it's that easy  take note OTIB