DT The Optimist Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 I post this with my 'helmet on'. I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three. A few facts to shoot at me with! The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case. I quote the last three seasons as facts 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points. Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and look what followed.......) 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on 46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers. 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left. On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games ! Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you ! We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home. We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams. I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct). So, a relaxing final third of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buster Footman's T shirt Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Not sure it will be a relaxing final 3rd but I do think we will scrape survival. This is based more on the fact that there are 3 worse sides than us rather than a positive surge in form. Whatever happens we have moved backwards on the pitch from where we were at the end of last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ploppy Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buster Footman's T shirt said: Not sure it will be a relaxing final 3rd but I do think we will scrape survival. This is based more on the fact that there are 3 worse sides than us rather than a positive surge in form. Whatever happens we have moved backwards on the pitch from where we were at the end of last season Are Wigan worse than us? I hope so but form suggests otherwise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buster Footman's T shirt Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, ploppy said: Are Wigan worse than us? I hope so but form suggests otherwise! Not sure about Wigan but I think Burton (based on their away record) are just slightly worse. Like I said I think we will just scrape survival...probably by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairman Mao Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Even scraping survival above Burton would be a pathetic outcome and show that, despite millions to spend Johnson has not progressed the club at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fordy62 Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 On your calculations we need 0.86666 points per game for safety. Over the last 17 games we've achieved 0.47 ppg. Hmmmmmm. It's far from comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MelksRed Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chairman Mao said: Even scraping survival above Burton would be a pathetic outcome and show that, despite millions to spend Johnson has not progressed the club at all. At the risk of drawing some criticism......I find it hard to say we haven't improved.....yea we've lost a lot of games but not by more than one goal.....we haven't seen the trouncings we had last season.......now the losses seemingly have slowed......we can but hope that the team build on rock bottom......using it as a firm foundation for great things......unfortunately only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weepywall Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Don't really understand this 3 teams worse than us statement, I think there is only 1 team worse than us and that is Rotherham, quite possible we will be in bottom 3 by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfOfWestStreet Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 Is that what we're doing now scabbing relegation every year. Survival is still a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweeneys Penalties Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 well...the Current Form table says we're not bottom 3 http://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/form/matches:6/type:home-and-away but... as they say, previous performance is may not necessarily indicate future performance (or something like that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DT The Optimist Posted February 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, WolfOfWestStreet said: Is that what we're doing now scabbing relegation every year. Survival is still a failure. You are spot on Wolf. SL must be having a 'discussion' at the appropriate time about what has gone on, however the post was that perhaps we only need 12 points from 15 games to stay and avoid the bottom 3 positions (as per history) Of course, this might be a different year ! If we are not competent or capable of that then we do deserve to be in this league, in anyway shape or form. However, the transfer window for us, has been huge. Taylor will score goals, Hegeler is pure quality, Wright is good, and a new keeper. Its like the spine of the side has been strengthened and improved. The side cannot go backwards anymore, can it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ploppy Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 45 minutes ago, Fordy62 said: On your calculations we need 0.86666 points per game for safety. Over the last 17 games we've achieved 0.47 ppg. Hmmmmmm. It's far from comfortable. Over the last four games we have achieved 1.25 points per game. I know a much smaller sample size but it's also relevant that we changed nearly half our first team in January. Fingers crossed it's green shoots and we can just about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 hour ago, DT The Optimist said: I post this with my 'helmet on'. I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three. A few facts to shoot at me with! The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case. I quote the last three seasons as facts 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points. Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and look what followed.......) 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on 46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers. 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left. On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games ! Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you ! We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home. We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams. I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct). So, a relaxing final third of the season. It's a naive comparison. How many points were these teams on after this number of games? If you don't know that then comparisons are pointless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFC Rich Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 The table at this point(ish) last season: Pos Team Played GD Points 19 Blackburne 30 +1 34 20 Bristol C 32 -19 34 21 MK 32 -19 31 22 Rotherham 32 -21 26 23 Bolton 32 -22 25 24 Charlton 32 -33 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, DT The Optimist said: I post this with my 'helmet on'. I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three. A few facts to shoot at me with! The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case. I quote the last three seasons as facts 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points. Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and look what followed.......) 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on 46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers. 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left. On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games ! Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you ! We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home. We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams. I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct). So, a relaxing final third of the season. I'd like to make a pithy comment but can't be assed. I'll just say 'bollox' instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ploppy Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, RichardEdd said: The table at this point(ish) last season: Pos Team Played GD Points 19 Blackburne 30 +1 34 20 Bristol C 32 -19 34 21 MK 32 -19 31 22 Rotherham 32 -21 26 23 Bolton 32 -22 25 24 Charlton 32 -33 25 The difference between goal differences and the comparative lack of difference between our points totals is astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samo II Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 27 minutes ago, Bullbag said: Ah yes, great thread............Burton and QPR winning, Wigan holding Preston. I despair sometimes, people just can't see the precarious position we're in. All this 'three teams worse than us' rubbish, I count one, that being Rotherham. Yep. Recent form from Blackburn, Wigan and Burton doesn't suggest they are that much worse than us, and results today could leave us level on points with the relegation zone - last year at this time we were five points clear. 19 minutes ago, RedDave said: It's a naive comparison. How many points were these teams on after this number of games? If you don't know that then comparisons are pointless As mentioned above; the dogfight is tighter than at this time last year, and our form from this point forward was blistering - no evidence we're prepared to go on a similar run. We're in serious trouble; can't understand why people are hiding behind this myth others are much worse - they aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portland Bill Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, DT The Optimist said: I post this with my 'helmet on'. I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three. A few facts to shoot at me with! The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case. I quote the last three seasons as facts 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points. Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and look what followed.......) 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on 46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers. 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left. On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games ! Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you ! We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home. We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams. I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct). So, a relaxing final third of the season. We have lots of posts on this subject, all I can say is that if it was always so predictable, then Sky bet/William hill etc would be bankrupt, and I would be a billionaire!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inactive user Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, DT The Optimist said: I post this with my 'helmet on'. I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three. A few facts to shoot at me with! The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case. I quote the last three seasons as facts 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points. Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and look what followed.......) 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on 46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers. 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left. On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games ! Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you ! We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home. We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams. I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct). So, a relaxing final third of the season. Good balance. Agree we ain't going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rednwhiterob said: Good balance. Agree we ain't going down. If you can tell the EFL that it'd be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slack Bladder Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 And we might not have Tammy for the run in, depending on his injury. Which is a worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Thompson Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 6 New players need time to fit in. It's going to be tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RumRed Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Thompson said: 6 New players need time to fit in. It's going to be tight. Well the bench will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhistleHappy Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Thompson said: 6 New players need time to fit in. It's going to be tight. Said the actress to the bishop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deadredfred Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 If we're looking at form tables and previous seasons points tally's to justify our resistance to relegation then that's very telling isn't it? The only form table that matters is the league table. Over the course of the season to date, we're the 20th best team out of 24, which cannot be argued. With the exception of Rotherham, who look dead and buried, as far up as Brentford in 15th, only 5 points separate us. That gives some reason for optimism if we can string something together, but our form is nothing short of woeful. It's a very similar pattern to last seasons table where only 6 points separated Rotherham scraping survival in 21st with 49pts to Blackburn in 15th. We finished 18th with 52. I'd snap your hand off for that now, which is justified reflection on what has been an abysmal season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidered abroad Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 DT The Optimist is living in a dream world of unreality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina's Rolls Royce Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, WolfOfWestStreet said: Is that what we're doing now scabbing relegation every year. Survival is still a failure. and pretty tedious considering the investment. I cling, rightly or wrongly, to the belief that when this group of players actually 'click' then we've got a pretty good team. Although when is becoming finite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redandy Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Buster Footman's T shirt said: Not sure about Wigan but I think Burton (based on their away record) are just slightly worse. Like I said I think we will just scrape survival...probably by default. Beat Norwich today. Can you see a Johnson team doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tears in rain Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said: and pretty tedious considering the investment. I cling, rightly or wrongly, to the belief that when this group of players actually 'click' then we've got a pretty good team. Although when is becoming finite. How long till the click and gelling happens? We have capable players definitely, but they don't seem to produce as a unit. So I understand what you mean I just hope they click from Wednesday! Fingers crossed and all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
old_eastender Posted February 18, 2017 Report Share Posted February 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Redandy said: Beat Norwich today. Can you see a Johnson team doing that. Nop, still can't believe the blinkered optimism of the LJ backers, we are up sh1t creek and the longer LJ is in charge the less grip we have on the paddles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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