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Not getting relegated, relax!

DT The Optimist

By DT The Optimist
in Football Chat

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Star of a gunner

Star of a gunner

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Redandy said:

Beat Norwich today. Can you see a Johnson team doing that.

I can't see us beating anyone at the moment  , if we get a 4 or 5 goal head start we may scrape a win 2 league wins in three months is a f.c.u.k i  ng  disgrace sorry to say it but we're going down  . But don't worry I'll still be cheering us on like I always do .

 

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cidered abroad

cidered abroad

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, myol'man said:

Wolves at home is starting to look like a six pointer now and Forest, having sacked the manager, are sinking fast

And still Forest beat us and so did Wolves. We are incapable of winning except a pathetic 1-0 against Rotherham. Did anyone notice how Cardiff walloped the Millers today?

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Fordy62 said:

On your calculations we need 0.86666 points per game for safety. 

Over the last 17 games we've achieved 0.47 ppg. 

Hmmmmmm. It's far from comfortable. 

No idea why 17 was chosen?

Let's see if I can massage the figures.

If we take 31st January to be a cut off time (last day of transfer window), our average points were 1 point per match (28 points in 28 games) to this point.
Why choose this time? For the sake of argument, the team starts to change from this date because the new players are starting to come into the team (the average was better before this date if you care to check).

Since 31st Jan, we've played 3 games, the average point per game is 1.3.

Worst case scenario (if we look at averages), 15 points. Best scenario, 19 points. So a range of 47 to 51 points

Now to dice the figures in other ways, our form so far:
Away form: Wins 2  ; Draws 3 ; Losses 11 - 7 away games left so 21 points on offer - away form is poor possibly 5 points tops (based on season form - not some figure plucked out of the air).
Home form: Wins 7; Draws 2 ; Losses 6 - 8 home games left so 24 points on offer - home form is better, maybe 12 points tops.
Maybe 17 points (within the range above) - 49 points

My way with messing with the figures is just as valid as those who choose to mess with their figures to prove their point. Personally I think it's all BS because the team has changed as a consequence of the transfer window, the injuries just picked up etc. In effect, the form has been reset and as yet, no one can say one way or the other whether it's a positive change or a negative change.

Onwards and upwards.

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RumRed

RumRed

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, bcfcfinker said:

No idea why 17 was chosen?

Let's see if I can massage the figures.

If we take 31st January to be a cut off time (last day of transfer window), our average points were 1 point per match (28 points in 28 games) to this point.
Why choose this time? For the sake of argument, the team starts to change from this date because the new players are starting to come into the team (the average was better before this date if you care to check).

Since 31st Jan, we've played 3 games, the average point per game is 1.3.

Worst case scenario (if we look at averages), 15 points. Best scenario, 19 points. So a range of 47 to 51 points

Now to dice the figures in other ways, our form so far:
Away form: Wins 2  ; Draws 3 ; Losses 11 - 7 away games left so 21 points on offer - away form is poor possibly 5 points tops (based on season form - not some figure plucked out of the air).
Home form: Wins 7; Draws 2 ; Losses 6 - 8 home games left so 24 points on offer - home form is better, maybe 12 points tops.
Maybe 17 points (within the range above) - 49 points

My way with messing with the figures is just as valid as those who choose to mess with their figures to prove their point. Personally I think it's all BS because the team has changed as a consequence of the transfer window, the injuries just picked up etc. In effect, the form has been reset and as yet, no one can say one way or the other whether it's a positive change or a negative change.

Onwards and upwards.

A lot of words but still delusional.

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samo II

samo II

Posted
Posted
Just now, BS4 on Tour... said:

Don't forget the Bristol Post article a month ago in which LJ told us 'not to worry about relegation' and reassured us we were staying up....

Well, if we do go down, I'd expect him to resign.

That's not a personal attack, or me saying we will get relegated, but I don't think it would be sensible to retain a head coach who said that, then got us relegated.

I'd hope we'd learn from keeping SO'D after the last relegation - didn't work.

I hope it doesn't come to that, of course, but do not believe SL would retain him were we back to League One next year.

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spudski

spudski

Posted
Posted

I think it's going to be a close call...but I think we may clear the drop by the skin of our teeth.

I can actually see us dropping into the bottom 3 at some point over March, but I think April's fixtures will be our saving grace.

March is worse than this month imo...playing two 'six pointers'...Burton and Wigan....and in form Norwich and Huddersfield.

The pressure is definitely going to be on the players and LJ.

How I look at it...SL wants LJ here. People calling for his sacking just adds needless pressure.

A new manager doesn't mean success...you only have to look at Zola at Birmingham for that.

I ask a question...is it more beneficial to be the 12th man and have a backs to the wall mentality and get behind the Club, regardless of your feelings?

Or constantly put pressure on the players and LJ....as if they aren't under enough?

For all the talk of sackings...I think certain fans need to except LJ isn't going anywhere...and I do believe SL will keep him even if we drop.

I remember the season under Benny. 1998-99. We finished bottom with 42 points and only 9 wins...below the likes of Oxford, Bury, Port Vale, Portsmouth, Crewe, Swindon, Stockport, Grimsby, Bradford, Bolton, Sheff Utd and Tranmere...yes that was the 'Championship'...how times have changed. Imagine being a supporter of those teams now. I suggest we have been quite lucky by comparison.

In that season, the fans every game really got behind the team. They really gave support. It was a great season for supporting the club, even though we went down. The manager and players tried...like they are now.

I get the frustration...and I think it mounts more every season, as fans think 'FFS not again'. The frustration and bewilderment as to 'why' is getting worse every season.

I think we all feel rather punch drunk atm...it's hard to know what to say or do these days.

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Dr Balls

Dr Balls

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, spudski said:

I think it's going to be a close call...but I think we may clear the drop by the skin of our teeth.

I can actually see us dropping into the bottom 3 at some point over March, but I think April's fixtures will be our saving grace.

March is worse than this month imo...playing two 'six pointers'...Burton and Wigan....and in form Norwich and Huddersfield.

The pressure is definitely going to be on the players and LJ.

How I look at it...SL wants LJ here. People calling for his sacking just adds needless pressure.

A new manager doesn't mean success...you only have to look at Zola at Birmingham for that.

I ask a question...is it more beneficial to be the 12th man and have a backs to the wall mentality and get behind the Club, regardless of your feelings?

Or constantly put pressure on the players and LJ....as if they aren't under enough?

For all the talk of sackings...I think certain fans need to except LJ isn't going anywhere...and I do believe SL will keep him even if we drop.

I remember the season under Benny. 1998-99. We finished bottom with 42 points and only 9 wins...below the likes of Oxford, Bury, Port Vale, Portsmouth, Crewe, Swindon, Stockport, Grimsby, Bradford, Bolton, Sheff Utd and Tranmere...yes that was the 'Championship'...how times have changed. Imagine being a supporter of those teams now. I suggest we have been quite lucky by comparison.

In that season, the fans every game really got behind the team. They really gave support. It was a great season for supporting the club, even though we went down. The manager and players tried...like they are now.

I get the frustration...and I think it mounts more every season, as fans think 'FFS not again'. The frustration and bewilderment as to 'why' is getting worse every season.

I think we all feel rather punch drunk atm...it's hard to know what to say or do these days.

Spud

I have a horrible feeling that you are right about SL & LJ. If he was going to get rid of him, he would have done it already. And if we go down, why bother replacing him. That may indeed have been the rationale last season as well.

The problem is that LJ was already "marmite" with a large section of the fans. And now it is more extreme. Unless the form picks up very soon, I fear that the atmosphere will get toxic, and that will do nothing for the players and their confidence.

What really has not helped is all the hype & BS surrounding us at the start of the season. If we had come out said we want to consolidate and become an established club at this level that would have been much better than the infamous "Europa League within 5 years" comment. That really was s hostage to fortune.

I don't think LJ is completely clueless, but I think he is inexperienced and would have benefitted from a Director of Football. But it's all too late now for this season unless SL has a major change of heart, which seems unlikely. However should we somehow manage to stay up we still need a major stocktake this summer and try to ensure we avoid this kind of shambles happening again.

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1960maaan

1960maaan

Posted
Posted

Even if I try to be optimistic the result is a downer. 

So, we somehow stay up. All that means is another year of the same. Same baffling teams, subs etc. Sending our only cover out on loan. £M's of players at home as the team struggles.

OK , some of that maybe a little unfair but really, what real improvement have we seen? What have we seen in the last 4 or 5 months that says he can really move us forward?

i said after Reading I was done, I just feel resigned to our fate. I think we will go down unless all luck we have missed out on so far this season turns up in the run in. 

I know changing managers does not guarantee anything, and personal I think it's too late. What SL sees in Johnson after what we have endured this year I do not know but we are stuck with him for the foreseeable. 

I honestly believe that know we are in the lap of the Gods(for you agnostics trust to luck). It's going to go to the wire, that in it's self is failure .

Europa league / freight Rover same diff.

 

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Leveller

Leveller

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

Some people are in such denial, can't believe they actually go to the games or/and know a thing about football.

It's not all denial - it's not necessarily accepting that change would be better. Many will point to Cardiff, but look at Brum & Villa. Many Villa fans now want Bruce out. I bet many of our fans would have welcomed Zola or Bruce a few months ago. A big name manager does not guarantee improving things.

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tinman85

tinman85

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, DT The Optimist said:

I post this with my 'helmet on'.  I am not impressed with the losing run that plonked us down the wrong end but I am not concerned really we will finish in bottom three.  A few facts to shoot at me with!

The 'myth' you need 50 points to be safe. Not the case.  I quote the last three seasons as facts

  • 2013/4 season.Team 3rd from bottom, was Doncaster with 44 points.  Above them in 21st spot were Birmingham on 44 as well. (safe). (Oh yes Leicester City got promoted and  look what followed.......)
  • 2014/5 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Millwall with 41 points, on  46 points and above them in 21st spot were again the Millers.
  • 2015/6 season. Team 3rd from bottom was Charlton on 40 points. The Millers were again 21st spot with 49 points. 

We have 32 points now, a far better GD at present, and 15 games left.  On the last three seasons stats we need 13 points to be safe from 15 games !  Come on, even the most doom and gloom merchants who lurk here would not bet on us getting that ! Or would you !

 

We have 4 crunch 6 pointer games to play. Blackburn and Wigan away, Burton and QPR home.  

We have also added some really good additions in the transfer window which I will not go over, but I still fancy us against any of those 4 teams.

I am not a LJ 'out' or 'in' camp I and will give him the last transfer window. Give him the three windows as always eluded to. (provided my prophecy of not getting relegated is correct).  So, a relaxing final third of the season.  ;)

Can you see us winning at Blackburn or Wigan? 

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Unan

Unan

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Leveller said:

It's not all denial - it's not necessarily accepting that change would be better. Many will point to Cardiff, but look at Brum & Villa. Many Villa fans now want Bruce out. I bet many of our fans would have welcomed Zola or Bruce a few months ago. A big name manager does not guarantee improving things.

One real example of a big name not working, Villa are a basket case and Brum doesn't count as Zolas got no experience. Don't see every other team that go up every year complaining about their big name manager (which they are 90% of the time). Look at the records of every manager that's finished 6th or above for the past 10 years, guarantee a tiny minority are unknowns/inexperienced. Then do the same but the other end, guarantee similar/opposite results.

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BS4 on Tour...

BS4 on Tour...

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

One real example of a big name not working, Villa are a basket case and Brum doesn't count as Zolas got no experience...

Zola's got no experience?! As manager, he took Watford to the championship play off final in his first season, finishing third. And he managed West Ham in the premier league...he's had other managerial jobs too, including a role in the management of Italy U21s...

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Unan

Unan

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, BS4 on Tour... said:

Zola's got no experience?! As manager, he took Watford to the championship play off final in his first season, finishing third. And he managed West Ham in the premier league...he's had other managerial jobs too, including a role in the management of Italy U21s...

He had a good season yes. My point was he doesn't have a track record at this level.

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BCFC Rich

BCFC Rich

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

One real example of a big name not working, Villa are a basket case and Brum doesn't count as Zolas got no experience. Don't see every other team that go up every year complaining about their big name manager (which they are 90% of the time). Look at the records of every manager that's finished 6th or above for the past 10 years, guarantee a tiny minority are unknowns/inexperienced. Then do the same but the other end, guarantee similar/opposite results.

3

Off the top of my head we have had - Adkins, Dyche, Jokanovic, Karanka, Neil, McDermott, Rodgers. There are loads more I sure (if I was in the mood to look it up) some these guys have gone on to get more experience/become more well known but they weren't when they won promotion.

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Unan

Unan

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RichardEdd said:

Off the top of my head we have had - Adkins, Dyche, Jokanovic, Karanka, Neil, McDermott, Rodgers. There are loads more I sure (if I was in the mood to look it up) some these guys have gone on to get more experience/become more well known but they weren't when they won promotion.

That's still the minority, I'd love LJ to follow in their footsteps but does it look like that'll happen? With us? 

The fact is, generally a known (for being good at this level) manager will do a good job. A few 'unknowns' will do a good job, the majority won't.

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BCFC Rich

BCFC Rich

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Matty Taylor [BCFC] said:

That's still the minority, I'd love LJ to follow in their footsteps but does it look like that'll happen? With us? 

The fact is, generally a known (for being good at this level) manager will do a good job. A few 'unknowns' will do a good job, the majority won't.

 

Okay just to be pedantic I had a quick look and I make it 16-18 in the last 10 years who were in this category when the got promotion (obviously some of them are not in that category now. 3 managers a year get promoted - so out of 30 over half were inexperienced/not well known. 

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