"But where are the goals gonna come from?"

[Ian M]

As I navigate my way around the football forum & the transfer forum this seems to be the concern of many posters, somewhat understandably, given the loss of Tammy & our record signing up front still unlikely to match the 23 league goals our erstwhile Chelsea loanee bagged for us.

As it seems the obvious place to start, let us start with the forwards. Understandably there is some concern that Diedhiou is not an out-and-out goalscorer and may take some time to acclimatise to the new league and surroundings. The good news is he has pedigree. He arrives from the same club we got Kodjia from, SCO Angers, though wasn't at the club at the same time or indeed play in the same league. Prior to his arrival here, Kodjia scored 15 goals as Angers secured promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1. Diedhiou meanwhile scored 23 goals a season on loan at Clermont in the same division and 9 goals in 29 starts when playing for Angers in Ligue 1. Kodjia went on to score 19 goals in his sole season with us in the Championship. What can we learn from this? Well, all players are different but the early indication is that he should be able to score at a similar rate in England. I'd say an estimate of 13 goals would be a conservative estimate in this example.

Next up, rather surprisingly is Bobby Reid, Johnson's supposed replacement for Tomlin in the support striker role. Bobby scored 3 goals in 18 starts in the Championship last season playing a number of roles, but mainly in midfield. During this pre-season Bobby has been on-fire playing in a more advanced role scoring 8 goals in 6 appearances (many where he was on the field for just half a game). If he just scored at his former rate he'd be on for 8 goals over a full season but starting further forward, he should be afforded more chances to score. For now I'm going to try an err on the side of conservatism again, Bobby Reid will go down as 10 goals.

The next selection may be a little controversial, Gustav Engvall. I believe this is a big season for Gustav, he had his struggles with health and fitness on arrival last season and he didn't ever really get going for us except for a decent performance with no end product against Hull & an assist for Paterson against Fleetwood in the cup. With the Euro's coming up for the U21 sides, Gustav went back to Sweden on loan and performed better than he had ever before in his young career scoring 7 goals in 13 games. Following his return to the Tenerife training camp & perhaps thanks to the injuries our other strikers are suffering from he appears to have been welcomed back into the fold and scored 2 goals in his first game back on English soil. I believe he will feature quite heavily through August as Johnson beds Famara in and will get reasonable minutes from the bench and starting roles in the Cups. He seems to have decent movement and knows where the goal he is. If he takes this chance I can see him going on to act as a rotation option/understudy to Famara. Engvall to score 8 goals 

The rest: Much has been said of the effect of the Snake, Matty Taylor, on our survival fight last season. During his run in the side he "only" scored 2 goals. I suspect if LJ favours FD & BR as the main partnership this season Taylor will have to make do with sub appearances & just the occasional start. However, this may benefit him as his lack of pace wont be so noticeable against tired defenders. Matty Taylor 4 goals. Milan Đuric has suffered from recurring injuries last season & this has carried over into this. In his brief appearances he showed hints of being able to play at this level. He scored 1 goal in 3 starts & 8 sub appearances last season. If he can sort his fitness issues out I can see him scoring 5 goals for us. Aaron Wilbraham is probably in his last season as a player with us and will probably not get a lot of playing time. With that in mind I am not predicting him to score any goals. A wildcard here may be Freddie Hinds who is enjoying pre-season with the first team but we have not seen enough of him to know if this is his breakthrough year for us.

Into midfield and the main threat appears to be Jamie Paterson who finished last season on fire after some time on the sidelines when it was rumoured he didn't get on with our larger playmaker who has since left for pastures more Welsh. Despite this he managed to score 6 goals in 27 appearances for us last term. Over a full season this would have equated to 10 goals & even with him having a more consistent/important role in the side, I will stick with this 10 goals projection. The remainder of the midfield doesn't have a lot in it but Calum O'Dowda was getting closer to getting his first Championship goal last season & I am backing him to break this duck this season (and score 1 more), Josh Brownhill did break his duck to score his first goal for us, I back him to get 2 next season. Marlon Pack & Korey Smith got 2 between them last season (Pack with both) and I'm saying they'll match it again this season.

In defence I have pretty much gone with last season's tallies, however the introduction of Eros Pisano should add more goals as he has some form here and has bagged a couple in pre-season. I'm marking him down for 3 goals.

In total this all adds up to 69 goals, 9 more than we got in 16/17. You may disagree with my numbers, maybe you think Gustav will get zero (but then I'd expect some more from one of the others as it'd mean they feature more), but in my mind there is goals throughout this team. You never know, we might still sign someone who will add to our tally too? This coupled with our improved defensive performance in the final 10 games last term gives me the optimism that we can get a comfortable mid-table finish this season.

 

Tl;dr we will score goals, breakdown below:

Diedhiou 13 goals

Reid 10 goals

Engvall 8 goals

Taylor 4 goals

Đuric 5 goals

Paterson 10 goals

Pack 1 goal

Smith 1 goal

Brownhill 2 goals

O'Dowda 2 goals

Flint 6 goals

Wright 2 goals

Magnusson 1 goal

Pisano 3 goals

Bryan 1 goal

Total 69 goals

 

[Sarumred]

What health issues did Engvall have? Only injured to my knowledge.

[CheddarReds]

Optimistic IMO, but better than a moan!

[Ian M]

2 minutes ago, CheddarReds said:

Optimistic IMO, but better than a moan!

Engvall I could believe was optimistic but the only others I projected to score significant numbers I put forward reasoned arguments for. Diedhiou scored 8 in 28 in the top division in France, if this exact ratio was repeated here it would be 13 goals in 46 games, worse than Kodjia who scored his goals for Angers at a weaker level. I projected Bobby to score 2 more than his rate last season due to playing further forward. Paterson I put at his same rate as this season, virtually everyone else were similar to their 2016/17 scoring levels and I even failed to mention writing off O'Neil  

[Ian M]

7 minutes ago, Sarumred said:

What health issues did Engvall have? Only injured to my knowledge.

He was on more than one occasion mentioned as "ill" by LJ, I believe he suffered significant weight loss too.

[Ian M]

Just now, JamesBCFC said:

Top post.

I await eagerly my Snakes for daring to be positive  

[Ian M]

1 minute ago, JamesBCFC said:

There you go!

I just want to be liked *sniffle*

Er, Johnson Out!

Does that work?

[redapple]

I think your roughly right about the amount of goals scored. I think Taylor might get to double figures which would mean 75+ goals which would be decent and top half to play off position. 

[Gillies Downs Leeds]

1 hour ago, Ian M said:

As I navigate my way around the football forum & the transfer forum this seems to be the concern of many posters, somewhat understandably, given the loss of Tammy & our record signing up front still unlikely to match the 23 league goals our erstwhile Chelsea loanee bagged for us.

As it seems the obvious place to start, let us start with the forwards. Understandably there is some concern that Diedhiou is not an out-and-out goalscorer and may take some time to acclimatise to the new league and surroundings. The good news is he has pedigree. He arrives from the same club we got Kodjia from, SCO Angers, though wasn't at the club at the same time or indeed play in the same league. Prior to his arrival here, Kodjia scored 15 goals as Angers secured promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1. Diedhiou meanwhile scored 23 goals a season on loan at Clermont in the same division and 9 goals in 29 starts when playing for Angers in Ligue 1. Kodjia went on to score 19 goals in his sole season with us in the Championship. What can we learn from this? Well, all players are different but the early indication is that he should be able to score at a similar rate in England. I'd say an estimate of 13 goals would be a conservative estimate in this example.

Next up, rather surprisingly is Bobby Reid, Johnson's supposed replacement for Tomlin in the support striker role. Bobby scored 3 goals in 18 starts in the Championship last season playing a number of roles, but mainly in midfield. During this pre-season Bobby has been on-fire playing in a more advanced role scoring 8 goals in 6 appearances (many where he was on the field for just half a game). If he just scored at his former rate he'd be on for 8 goals over a full season but starting further forward, he should be afforded more chances to score. For now I'm going to try an err on the side of conservatism again, Bobby Reid will go down as 10 goals.

The next selection may be a little controversial, Gustav Engvall. I believe this is a big season for Gustav, he had his struggles with health and fitness on arrival last season and he didn't ever really get going for us except for a decent performance with no end product against Hull & an assist for Paterson against Fleetwood in the cup. With the Euro's coming up for the U21 sides, Gustav went back to Sweden on loan and performed better than he had ever before in his young career scoring 7 goals in 13 games. Following his return to the Tenerife training camp & perhaps thanks to the injuries our other strikers are suffering from he appears to have been welcomed back into the fold and scored 2 goals in his first game back on English soil. I believe he will feature quite heavily through August as Johnson beds Famara in and will get reasonable minutes from the bench and starting roles in the Cups. He seems to have decent movement and knows where the goal he is. If he takes this chance I can see him going on to act as a rotation option/understudy to Famara. Engvall to score 8 goals 

The rest: Much has been said of the effect of the Snake, Matty Taylor, on our survival fight last season. During his run in the side he "only" scored 2 goals. I suspect if LJ favours FD & BR as the main partnership this season Taylor will have to make do with sub appearances & just the occasional start. However, this may benefit him as his lack of pace wont be so noticeable against tired defenders. Matty Taylor 4 goals. Milan Đuric has suffered from recurring injuries last season & this has carried over into this. In his brief appearances he showed hints of being able to play at this level. He scored 1 goal in 3 starts & 8 sub appearances last season. If he can sort his fitness issues out I can see him scoring 5 goals for us. Aaron Wilbraham is probably in his last season as a player with us and will probably not get a lot of playing time. With that in mind I am not predicting him to score any goals. A wildcard here may be Freddie Hinds who is enjoying pre-season with the first team but we have not seen enough of him to know if this is his breakthrough year for us.

Into midfield and the main threat appears to be Jamie Paterson who finished last season on fire after some time on the sidelines when it was rumoured he didn't get on with our larger playmaker who has since left for pastures more Welsh. Despite this he managed to score 6 goals in 27 appearances for us last term. Over a full season this would have equated to 10 goals & even with him having a more consistent/important role in the side, I will stick with this 10 goals projection. The remainder of the midfield doesn't have a lot in it but Calum O'Dowda was getting closer to getting his first Championship goal last season & I am backing him to break this duck this season (and score 1 more), Josh Brownhill did break his duck to score his first goal for us, I back him to get 2 next season. Marlon Pack & Korey Smith got 2 between them last season (Pack with both) and I'm saying they'll match it again this season.

In defence I have pretty much gone with last season's tallies, however the introduction of Eros Pisano should add more goals as he has some form here and has bagged a couple in pre-season. I'm marking him down for 3 goals.

In total this all adds up to 69 goals, 9 more than we got in 16/17. You may disagree with my numbers, maybe you think Gustav will get zero (but then I'd expect some more from one of the others as it'd mean they feature more), but in my mind there is goals throughout this team. You never know, we might still sign someone who will add to our tally too? This coupled with our improved defensive performance in the final 10 games last term gives me the optimism that we can get a comfortable mid-table finish this season.

 

Tl;dr we will score goals, breakdown below:

Diedhiou 13 goals

Reid 10 goals

Engvall 8 goals

Taylor 4 goals

Đuric 5 goals

Paterson 10 goals

Pack 1 goal

Smith 1 goal

Brownhill 2 goals

O'Dowda 2 goals

Flint 6 goals

Wright 2 goals

Magnússon 1 goal

Pisano 3 goals

Bryan 1 goal

Total 69 goals

 

Good post, For what is is worth i think Brownhill will get half a dozen or more this season, I think that he will be a regular starter this season, and towards the end of last season he was getting himself into some cracking scoring positions, without finding the composure to finish. If that little bit of composure can be found i don't think that 6 goals plus is beyond him. 

[P'head Red]

I'm not all too worried about the goal threat we provide, it's whether or not we can maintain/ progress defensively from the back end of last season. Personally I'm hopeful of some more clean sheets this year, allowing us to be more comfortable with 1/2 goal leads. 

[downendcity]

Well thought out post Ian.

Many are saying that we need a new striker, but if Engval get s a chance he could be like a new signing. 

Also, being so dependant on Tammy's goals last season we were very lucky he didn't suffer major injury problems and extended absence from the team. This being the case, it is perhaps better that we are not so dependant on one main goalscorer and that more players chip in with a decent amount of goals.

Finally,  I think goalscoring is not our main problem, but shoring up the defence is.

We have to be better at closing out games. We only had one game last season where we were thrashed, and given the dire run we had either side of Christmas that is pretty remarkable, but what was our problem was holding on to winning positions - Wednesday, Cardiff, Reading , Derby and Newcastle alone cost us 10-13 points , which makes a huge difference to a season.

 

 

[Ian M]

11 minutes ago, redapple said:

I think your roughly right about the amount of goals scored. I think Taylor might get to double figures which would mean 75+ goals which would be decent and top half to play off position. 

That's the beauty of pre-season & football in general. We all have different opinions even though we've watched the same players. Maybe some will think I'm broadly right but that Engvall will score zero. A tally of 61 goals would have seen us 10th top scorers last season. The 10th best defence shipped 58 goals. We would need to stop 8 goals to get to that level & we could realistically look at finishing top 10. The margins are that slim.

For reference, once Johnson started picking a consistent team towards the end of the season, we conceded 14 goals in the final 12 games (which includes the 5-0 drubbing at Preston), that would be 54 goals a season if continued over 46 games. Even if Pisano doesn't improve this, that level would have been the 7th best defence in the division.

[weepywall]

Good well thought out post, think Taylor may hit double figures though.

[Leaning To One Side]

I like the cut of your jib Ian....a very well reasoned post imo

Although I quite fancy Brownhill to weigh in with a few this season (5-10 maybe)

[Shtanley]

I think a spine of Wright Flint Pack Smith all fully fit with a whole preseason will do wonders and save us roughly a dozen goals. You'd hope Pisano would be an improvement on Little.

[pongo88]

I beginning to beleive I've fallen through a tear in the space time continuum and have entered a parallel universe.  Bobby Reid predicted to be City's second highest goal scorer only 3 goals behind the highest goal scorer, and  City to finish in a comfortable mid table position! 

Wait - I've just heard a news flash on the radio that Elvis has been found alive, living on the moon 

[Ian M]

4 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

I beginning to beleive I've fallen through a tear in the space time continuum and have entered a parallel universe.  Bobby Reid predicted to be City's second highest goal scorer only 3 goals behind the highest goal scorer, and  City to finish in a comfortable mid table position! 

Wait - I've just heard a news flash on the radio that Elvis has been found alive, living on the moon 

...and if it happens that will make you sad?

[Inactive user]

We've got about 8 strikers including one costing £5m and we're wondering where the goals are going to come from?  

[GrahamC]

It is a good post and in most cases very sensibly argued.

However Bobby Reid has made 89 league appearances for us and scored 7 goals, (one of them in League One), so to think he'll reach double figures next season is lottery winning optimistic to me.

[Monkeh]

More important to keep them out, and that's my worry, I still don't think the defence is anywhere near the required standard and we lack a good defensive midfielder

still think we will finish 14th though

[Lanterne Rouge]

Just a thought. With Tomlin & Tammy both having gone, who is our penalty taker this season?

[LC_]

Playing devils advocate on this, LJ looks set to play with 1 up top again which means only one out of Fam, Đurić and Engvall will be on the pitch at any one time (unless Engvall plays in the hole and Taylor/Reid are benched). Combined you're looking at 26 goals from a frontman which would be about a 1 in 2 strike rate. Haven't seen that from Đurić or Engvall so far but who knows what the season holds.

[TV Tom]

2 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

Just a thought. With Tomlin & Tammy both having gone, who is our penalty taker this season?

If Taylor is on the pitch it will be him I'd imagine 

[Ian M]

34 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

I beginning to beleive I've fallen through a tear in the space time continuum and have entered a parallel universe.  Bobby Reid predicted to be City's second highest goal scorer only 3 goals behind the highest goal scorer, and  City to finish in a comfortable mid table position! 

Wait - I've just heard a news flash on the radio that Elvis has been found alive, living on the moon 

 

15 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

It is a good post and in most cases very sensibly argued.

However Bobby Reid has made 89 league appearances for us and scored 7 goals, (one of them in League One), so to think he'll reach double figures next season is lottery winning optimistic to me.

Let's suppose despite a season playing further forward he simply scores 4 goals and no-one else steps up, that's still 63 goals which is more than enough for midtable  

[Lanterne Rouge]

9 minutes ago, harrys said:

If Taylor is on the pitch it will be him I'd imagine 

That would be my thought but if he`s not? Pato? As long as it`s not Marlon!

Did Famara take them for Angers?

[GrahamC]

12 minutes ago, Red Right Hand said:

Just a thought. With Tomlin & Tammy both having gone, who is our penalty taker this season?

Diedhiou.

[Ian M]

6 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Diedhiou.

Mangani took the last pen for Angers. Diedhiou was playing.

[JoeAman08]

1 hour ago, Ian M said:

Engvall I could believe was optimistic but the only others I projected to score significant numbers I put forward reasoned arguments for. Diedhiou scored 8 in 28 in the top division in France, if this exact ratio was repeated here it would be 13 goals in 46 games, worse than Kodjia who scored his goals for Angers at a weaker level. I projected Bobby to score 2 more than his rate last season due to playing further forward. Paterson I put at his same rate as this season, virtually everyone else were similar to their 2016/17 scoring levels and I even failed to mention writing off O'Neil  

When Diedhiou played in Ligue 2 he scored 21 in 36(source football manager and it's quite good for that). So 13 could be a low guess as Angers I don't think create too many chances. So even if you're optimistic on some, I think you're pessimistic on others so it's not a bad shout. I think I'll post mine while I'm here not that anyone cares 

 

Diedhiou 16 goals

Reid 7 goals

Engvall 5 goals

Taylor 6 goals

Đuric 5 goals

Paterson 9 goals

Pack 3 goals

Smith 0

Brownhill 5 goals

O'Dowda 3 goals

Flint 5 goals

Wright 0 goals

Magnússon 1 goal

Pisano 1 goal 

Bryan 2 goals

Total 69 goals

[Ian M]

7 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

When Diedhiou played in Ligue 2 he scored 21 in 36(source football manager and it's quite good for that). So 13 could be a low guess as Angers I don't think create too many chances. So even if you're optimistic on some, I think you're pessimistic on others so it's not a bad shout. I think I'll post mine while I'm here not that anyone cares 

 

Diedhiou 16 goals

Reid 7 goals

Engvall 5 goals

Taylor 6 goals

Đuric 5 goals

Paterson 9 goals

Pack 3 goals

Smith 0

Brownhill 5 goals

O'Dowda 3 goals

Flint 5 goals

Wright 0 goals

Magnússon 1 goal

Pisano 1 goal 

Bryan 2 goals

Total 69 goals

Small point, Diedhiou played for Clermont in Ligue 2 who scored 56 goals & finished 7th in the season he was with them so he was playing in a slightly more attacking but essentially worse team than Kodjia did when he scored 15 of Angers' 47 goals. Not sure what conclusion to draw from this though. 

...I'm also confident Bailey Wright will score goals for us this term. He got 2 for us (and a perfectly good goal ruled out at home to Burton, LJ has the apology letter from the ref to prove it) in half a season. That's one, on reflection, I think I underestimated  

[GrahamC]

8 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Mangani took the last pen for Angers. Diedhiou was playing.

Took (and scored) 1 v Lorient last season, so maybe he missed another afterwards?

Thought I remembered seeing him taking penalties on his YouTube highlights.

[Super]

If we had a decent defence then one goal may be good enough to win a number of games. 

[JoeAman08]

7 minutes ago, Ian M said:

Small point, Diedhiou played for Clermont in Ligue 2 who scored 56 goals & finished 7th in the season he was with them so he was playing in a slightly more attacking but essentially worse team than Kodjia did when he scored 15 of Angers' 47 goals. Not sure what conclusion to draw from this though. 

...I'm also confident Bailey Wright will score goals for us this term. He got 2 for us (and a perfectly good goal ruled out at home to Burton, LJ has the apology letter from the ref to prove it) in half a season. That's one, on reflection, I think I underestimated  

Quite sure that was Wilbs with Burton. Think Wright hadn't scored for years before his one with us. Can't remember two

[Bobfish]

Penalty taker? We are missing a trick here. Kevin Pressman, the keeper, used to love taking penalties for the owls, used to say he just treated it like taking a goal kick from a few yards out. Could Fielding do this? Lucic is massive, I imagine he could get some power behind it. No keeper could stop this.

 

[1bristolcity]

2 hours ago, Ian M said:

As I navigate my way around the football forum & the transfer forum this seems to be the concern of many posters, somewhat understandably, given the loss of Tammy & our record signing up front still unlikely to match the 23 league goals our erstwhile Chelsea loanee bagged for us.

As it seems the obvious place to start, let us start with the forwards. Understandably there is some concern that Diedhiou is not an out-and-out goalscorer and may take some time to acclimatise to the new league and surroundings. The good news is he has pedigree. He arrives from the same club we got Kodjia from, SCO Angers, though wasn't at the club at the same time or indeed play in the same league. Prior to his arrival here, Kodjia scored 15 goals as Angers secured promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1. Diedhiou meanwhile scored 23 goals a season on loan at Clermont in the same division and 9 goals in 29 starts when playing for Angers in Ligue 1. Kodjia went on to score 19 goals in his sole season with us in the Championship. What can we learn from this? Well, all players are different but the early indication is that he should be able to score at a similar rate in England. I'd say an estimate of 13 goals would be a conservative estimate in this example.

Next up, rather surprisingly is Bobby Reid, Johnson's supposed replacement for Tomlin in the support striker role. Bobby scored 3 goals in 18 starts in the Championship last season playing a number of roles, but mainly in midfield. During this pre-season Bobby has been on-fire playing in a more advanced role scoring 8 goals in 6 appearances (many where he was on the field for just half a game). If he just scored at his former rate he'd be on for 8 goals over a full season but starting further forward, he should be afforded more chances to score. For now I'm going to try an err on the side of conservatism again, Bobby Reid will go down as 10 goals.

The next selection may be a little controversial, Gustav Engvall. I believe this is a big season for Gustav, he had his struggles with health and fitness on arrival last season and he didn't ever really get going for us except for a decent performance with no end product against Hull & an assist for Paterson against Fleetwood in the cup. With the Euro's coming up for the U21 sides, Gustav went back to Sweden on loan and performed better than he had ever before in his young career scoring 7 goals in 13 games. Following his return to the Tenerife training camp & perhaps thanks to the injuries our other strikers are suffering from he appears to have been welcomed back into the fold and scored 2 goals in his first game back on English soil. I believe he will feature quite heavily through August as Johnson beds Famara in and will get reasonable minutes from the bench and starting roles in the Cups. He seems to have decent movement and knows where the goal he is. If he takes this chance I can see him going on to act as a rotation option/understudy to Famara. Engvall to score 8 goals 

The rest: Much has been said of the effect of the Snake, Matty Taylor, on our survival fight last season. During his run in the side he "only" scored 2 goals. I suspect if LJ favours FD & BR as the main partnership this season Taylor will have to make do with sub appearances & just the occasional start. However, this may benefit him as his lack of pace wont be so noticeable against tired defenders. Matty Taylor 4 goals. Milan Đuric has suffered from recurring injuries last season & this has carried over into this. In his brief appearances he showed hints of being able to play at this level. He scored 1 goal in 3 starts & 8 sub appearances last season. If he can sort his fitness issues out I can see him scoring 5 goals for us. Aaron Wilbraham is probably in his last season as a player with us and will probably not get a lot of playing time. With that in mind I am not predicting him to score any goals. A wildcard here may be Freddie Hinds who is enjoying pre-season with the first team but we have not seen enough of him to know if this is his breakthrough year for us.

Into midfield and the main threat appears to be Jamie Paterson who finished last season on fire after some time on the sidelines when it was rumoured he didn't get on with our larger playmaker who has since left for pastures more Welsh. Despite this he managed to score 6 goals in 27 appearances for us last term. Over a full season this would have equated to 10 goals & even with him having a more consistent/important role in the side, I will stick with this 10 goals projection. The remainder of the midfield doesn't have a lot in it but Calum O'Dowda was getting closer to getting his first Championship goal last season & I am backing him to break this duck this season (and score 1 more), Josh Brownhill did break his duck to score his first goal for us, I back him to get 2 next season. Marlon Pack & Korey Smith got 2 between them last season (Pack with both) and I'm saying they'll match it again this season.

In defence I have pretty much gone with last season's tallies, however the introduction of Eros Pisano should add more goals as he has some form here and has bagged a couple in pre-season. I'm marking him down for 3 goals.

In total this all adds up to 69 goals, 9 more than we got in 16/17. You may disagree with my numbers, maybe you think Gustav will get zero (but then I'd expect some more from one of the others as it'd mean they feature more), but in my mind there is goals throughout this team. You never know, we might still sign someone who will add to our tally too? This coupled with our improved defensive performance in the final 10 games last term gives me the optimism that we can get a comfortable mid-table finish this season.

 

Tl;dr we will score goals, breakdown below:

Diedhiou 13 goals

Reid 10 goals

Engvall 8 goals

Taylor 4 goals

Đuric 5 goals

Paterson 10 goals

Pack 1 goal

Smith 1 goal

Brownhill 2 goals

O'Dowda 2 goals

Flint 6 goals

Wright 2 goals

Magnússon 1 goal

Pisano 3 goals

Bryan 1 goal

Total 69 goals

 

Bobby Reid could and quite possibly score more than 10, with the way that we play especially, I believe Engvall IF HE GETS GAME TIME, could be our leading scorer, not much to go on apart from last night, has a real strikers instinct.Overall I think you have underestimated our goals for, I would bet you that we will be at least in the 70's. A lot of goal scoring potential in the squad. Just need to be tight at the back.

[JoeAman08]

Just now, Super said:

If we had a decent defence then one goal may be good enough to win a number of games. 

I can think of two games in quick succession where 2 goals wasn't enough(Reading and Cardiff at home). That is 6 points and add that to our total and we look Moreno respectable. Need to concede probably a good third less than last season(so about 1 a game) which isn't to hard I don't think. Brighton only conceded something like 14 last season I think I saw? Not asking for that just a bit more solid would be nice and should see us to about 60 points 

[pongo88]

1 hour ago, Ian M said:

...and if it happens that will make you sad?

What a pathetic reply. The problem with far too many people on the forum, is that they assume others who have a different opinion and criticise the situation, want City to lose. It seems that anyone who states an opinion,  that all is not perfect  at the club is just being negative, and those who state that all is well are the only real City fans. I would love City to finished mid table but I don't beleive it will happen if we have to reply on Bobby Reid to be our second highest goal scorer. 

Various people have said your post is well thought out, and they are entitled to their opinion, but I don't think it's well thought out at all. As @GrahamC said, Reid has only scored 7 goal in 88 appearances for City. Even allowing for the fact that many would be substitute appearances, assuming he will score 10 this season is optimistic.

The other major flaw is that all the forwards / attacking players can't all play in the team at the same time. In addition to Reid and Diedhiou you've assumed that Engvall, Taylor, Đurić and Patterson will score 27 goals between them. For Reid and Diedhiou to score 10 and 13 goals respectively, they would have to play in the majority of matches. If they are playing, the others can't also be playing unles LJ decides to dispense with a defence. If they are not playing in many games they won't  score 27 goals 

For what it's worth, I hope the Diedhiou will score close to 20 goals in partnership with Đurić or Engvall who could score 25 between them, if the former is fit and the latter is with the club. If not Taylor must be a better bet than Reid as he has a better scoring record at lower league level 

[Ian M]

2 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

What a pathetic reply. The problem with far too many people on the forum, is that they assume others who have a different opinion and criticise the situation, want City to lose. It seems that anyone who states an opinion,  that all is not perfect  at the club is just being negative, and those who state that all is well are the only real City fans. I would love City to finished mid table but I don't beleive it will happen if we have to reply on Bobby Reid to be our second highest goal scorer. 

Various people have said your post is well thought out, and they are entitled to their opinion, but I don't think it's well thought out at all. As @GrahamC said, Reid has only scored 7 goal in 88 appearances for City. Even allowing for the fact that many would be substitute appearances, assuming he will score 10 this season is optimistic.

The other major flaw is that all the forwards / attacking players can't all play in the team at the same time. In addition to Reid and Diedhiou you've assumed that Engvall, Taylor, Đurić and Patterson will score 27 goals between them. For Reid and Diedhiou to score 10 and 13 goals respectively, they would have to play in the majority of matches. If they are playing, the others can't also be playing unles LJ decides to dispense with a defence. If they are not playing in many games they won't  score 27 goals 

For what it's worth, I hope the Diedhiou will score close to 20 goals in partnership with Đurić or Engvall who could score 25 between them, if the former is fit and the latter is with the club. If not Taylor must be a better bet than Reid as he has a better scoring record at lower league level 

Woah there, pathetic reply? You reacted "sad" to my opening post so I was asking if that was why as that's the part you drew attention to with a later reply, no offence meant  

[Davefevs]

20 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Diedhiou.

Marlon possibly?

@Ian M - nice post.  Agree with lots on here.  Think Bobby will be rotated too much to get 10, but if you take 92 games up front between Diedhiou (lions share of 46, say 38) for his 13 (1 in 3), that leaves 54 starts between Bobby, Gustav, Matty and Milan.  I think Matty is the make-weight in all of this.  I said a few weeks ago that I could see him leaving in January (if not next summer), but the emergence of firstly Bobby and now Gustav (yes, one two goal game doesn't do it, but I thought he was good enough since Hull) means I can't see him getting many starts at all.

Back to those 54 starts, say another 14 (1 in 4) shared between them, might not reach the heights you've set, but I think our jewel in the crown will be Paterson.  Can see him getting 10.

So that's 37 so far, and you can probably add another 6 from the bench at some point through the season from the strikers/forwards from the games they don't start.  That's 43.

Add in Flint 5 (48), Bryan and Pisano 3 each (54), and you're best part of the way to a decent(ish) total.

I do think a solid midfield 2 of Pack / Smith (with the rotation of Brownhill) will mean few goals from centre of the park, but will allow the full-backs and wide-men to contribute to a few goals and more assists.

Reasons to be positive(ish).

[Ian M]

7 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

I can think of two games in quick succession where 2 goals wasn't enough(Reading and Cardiff at home). That is 6 points and add that to our total and we look Moreno respectable. Need to concede probably a good third less than last season(so about 1 a game) which isn't to hard I don't think. Brighton only conceded something like 14 last season I think I saw? Not asking for that just a bit more solid would be nice and should see us to about 60 points 

If we improved the defence to concede a third less goals that would have made it the 3rd best in the league, we don't need to improve that much as I don't think anyone is targeting automatic promotion this season, other than LJ of course to keep up his Europa League timeline 

I think you must have misheard Brighton's defensive record as they (& Newcastle) conceded 40.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, pongo88 said:

What a pathetic reply. The problem with far too many people on the forum, is that they assume others who have a different opinion and criticise the situation, want City to lose. It seems that anyone who states an opinion,  that all is not perfect  at the club is just being negative, and those who state that all is well are the only real City fans. I would love City to finished mid table but I don't beleive it will happen if we have to reply on Bobby Reid to be our second highest goal scorer. 

Various people have said your post is well thought out, and they are entitled to their opinion, but I don't think it's well thought out at all. As @GrahamC said, Reid has only scored 7 goal in 88 appearances for City. Even allowing for the fact that many would be substitute appearances, assuming he will score 10 this season is optimistic.

The other major flaw is that all the forwards / attacking players can't all play in the team at the same time. In addition to Reid and Diedhiou you've assumed that Engvall, Taylor, Đurić and Patterson will score 27 goals between them. For Reid and Diedhiou to score 10 and 13 goals respectively, they would have to play in the majority of matches. If they are playing, the others can't also be playing unles LJ decides to dispense with a defence. If they are not playing in many games they won't  score 27 goals 

For what it's worth, I hope the Diedhiou will score close to 20 goals in partnership with Đurić or Engvall who could score 25 between them, if the former is fit and the latter is with the club. If not Taylor must be a better bet than Reid as he has a better scoring record at lower league level 

OP is a reasoned well thought post BUT it is in hope, the fact remains however our top 3/4 goalscoring hopes have little to no play time exp in the championship and will be up against some very tough defences.

I really hope they live up to the OP`s dreams but cant see it myself and you must know already I think we will struggle, ..........and yes PONGO 88 they cant all play at once.

 

[1bristolcity]

You think you got problems I have the all seeing all knowing Graham on my case,we have a very young mobile team that is bursting with energy, OK we might not be anywhere the complete team, but it does look like a better outfit than we have had for a number of seasons....I know some want us to fail...just to prove that they were right all along about Lee, that is sad.

[JoeAman08]

11 minutes ago, Ian M said:

If we improved the defence to concede a third less goals that would have made it the 3rd best in the league, we don't need to improve that much as I don't think anyone is targeting automatic promotion this season, other than LJ of course to keep up his Europa League timeline 

I think you must have misheard Brighton's defensive record as they (& Newcastle) conceded 40.

Much more realistic maybe I saw their GD anyway it'd be nice to keep it between 45-50 but I'd be happy with 50-55. 

[EmersonsRed]

I'm an optimist when it comes to City and a huge LJ fan but blimey, Paterson 10 goals... No chance... Love to be proven wrong.

[Lrrr]

I doubt Bobby will get enough game time to get 10 as I reckon we'll play two strikers, if Gustav is given the game time though over the season I reckon he'll get over 10. 

[Garland-sweden]

9 hours ago, Red Right Hand said:

Just a thought. With Tomlin & Tammy both having gone, who is our penalty taker this season?

Why not Pack.

[Son of Fred]

11 hours ago, Ian M said:

As I navigate my way around the football forum & the transfer forum this seems to be the concern of many posters, somewhat understandably, given the loss of Tammy & our record signing up front still unlikely to match the 23 league goals our erstwhile Chelsea loanee bagged for us.

As it seems the obvious place to start, let us start with the forwards. Understandably there is some concern that Diedhiou is not an out-and-out goalscorer and may take some time to acclimatise to the new league and surroundings. The good news is he has pedigree. He arrives from the same club we got Kodjia from, SCO Angers, though wasn't at the club at the same time or indeed play in the same league. Prior to his arrival here, Kodjia scored 15 goals as Angers secured promotion from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1. Diedhiou meanwhile scored 23 goals a season on loan at Clermont in the same division and 9 goals in 29 starts when playing for Angers in Ligue 1. Kodjia went on to score 19 goals in his sole season with us in the Championship. What can we learn from this? Well, all players are different but the early indication is that he should be able to score at a similar rate in England. I'd say an estimate of 13 goals would be a conservative estimate in this example.

Next up, rather surprisingly is Bobby Reid, Johnson's supposed replacement for Tomlin in the support striker role. Bobby scored 3 goals in 18 starts in the Championship last season playing a number of roles, but mainly in midfield. During this pre-season Bobby has been on-fire playing in a more advanced role scoring 8 goals in 6 appearances (many where he was on the field for just half a game). If he just scored at his former rate he'd be on for 8 goals over a full season but starting further forward, he should be afforded more chances to score. For now I'm going to try an err on the side of conservatism again, Bobby Reid will go down as 10 goals.

The next selection may be a little controversial, Gustav Engvall. I believe this is a big season for Gustav, he had his struggles with health and fitness on arrival last season and he didn't ever really get going for us except for a decent performance with no end product against Hull & an assist for Paterson against Fleetwood in the cup. With the Euro's coming up for the U21 sides, Gustav went back to Sweden on loan and performed better than he had ever before in his young career scoring 7 goals in 13 games. Following his return to the Tenerife training camp & perhaps thanks to the injuries our other strikers are suffering from he appears to have been welcomed back into the fold and scored 2 goals in his first game back on English soil. I believe he will feature quite heavily through August as Johnson beds Famara in and will get reasonable minutes from the bench and starting roles in the Cups. He seems to have decent movement and knows where the goal he is. If he takes this chance I can see him going on to act as a rotation option/understudy to Famara. Engvall to score 8 goals 

The rest: Much has been said of the effect of the Snake, Matty Taylor, on our survival fight last season. During his run in the side he "only" scored 2 goals. I suspect if LJ favours FD & BR as the main partnership this season Taylor will have to make do with sub appearances & just the occasional start. However, this may benefit him as his lack of pace wont be so noticeable against tired defenders. Matty Taylor 4 goals. Milan Đuric has suffered from recurring injuries last season & this has carried over into this. In his brief appearances he showed hints of being able to play at this level. He scored 1 goal in 3 starts & 8 sub appearances last season. If he can sort his fitness issues out I can see him scoring 5 goals for us. Aaron Wilbraham is probably in his last season as a player with us and will probably not get a lot of playing time. With that in mind I am not predicting him to score any goals. A wildcard here may be Freddie Hinds who is enjoying pre-season with the first team but we have not seen enough of him to know if this is his breakthrough year for us.

Into midfield and the main threat appears to be Jamie Paterson who finished last season on fire after some time on the sidelines when it was rumoured he didn't get on with our larger playmaker who has since left for pastures more Welsh. Despite this he managed to score 6 goals in 27 appearances for us last term. Over a full season this would have equated to 10 goals & even with him having a more consistent/important role in the side, I will stick with this 10 goals projection. The remainder of the midfield doesn't have a lot in it but Calum O'Dowda was getting closer to getting his first Championship goal last season & I am backing him to break this duck this season (and score 1 more), Josh Brownhill did break his duck to score his first goal for us, I back him to get 2 next season. Marlon Pack & Korey Smith got 2 between them last season (Pack with both) and I'm saying they'll match it again this season.

In defence I have pretty much gone with last season's tallies, however the introduction of Eros Pisano should add more goals as he has some form here and has bagged a couple in pre-season. I'm marking him down for 3 goals.

In total this all adds up to 69 goals, 9 more than we got in 16/17. You may disagree with my numbers, maybe you think Gustav will get zero (but then I'd expect some more from one of the others as it'd mean they feature more), but in my mind there is goals throughout this team. You never know, we might still sign someone who will add to our tally too? This coupled with our improved defensive performance in the final 10 games last term gives me the optimism that we can get a comfortable mid-table finish this season.

 

Tl;dr we will score goals, breakdown below:

Diedhiou 13 goals

Reid 10 goals

Engvall 8 goals

Taylor 4 goals

Đuric 5 goals

Paterson 10 goals

Pack 1 goal

Smith 1 goal

Brownhill 2 goals

O'Dowda 2 goals

Flint 6 goals

Wright 2 goals

Magnússon 1 goal

Pisano 3 goals

Bryan 1 goal

Total 69 goals

 

Bobby,ten goals??

There ain't no 'Manor Farm in our league........

[BigTone]

Regrettably I feel we are in for a real struggle this season unless we bring in a couple more "quality" signings. In saying that I have this feeling that Engvall is going to show his true worth and do really well for us. That is of course providing he gets a decent run in the team. Anyway I hope he does as he comes across as a nice lad with some ambition to do well.

[Red Exile]

9 hours ago, 1bristolcity said:

You think you got problems I have the all seeing all knowing Graham on my case,we have a very young mobile team that is bursting with energy, OK we might not be anywhere the complete team, but it does look like a better outfit than we have had for a number of seasons....I know some want us to fail...just to prove that they were right all along about Lee, that is sad.

Two thoughts...Graham is one of the better informed posters on here, one of those whose opinions are always worth reading, so it's not a bad thing if he's reading your posts...

...and if we "might not be anywhere the complete team" then SL, MA and LJ have a lot of questions to answer...we certainly looked like a "complete team" when we got promoted a couple of years ago, it's not as though Bristol City lacks experience in putting such a side together, but then, we've completely changed the management team since then, for a group that has no such experience.

As to the OP...what I'd say was needed was a team that creates chances, the goals can be spread around. The first few league matches will tell us whether we have such a team.

[P'head Red]

At the moment it seems unlikely that we'l' be signing another forward before the first game. Tinnion has liked a tweet alluding to Hinds being on the bench. 

[reddogkev]

That's a damn good post Ian; although I reckon Diedhou may score a few more, and Reid and Pato possibly a few less.  I'd also shave a few off of Đurić's tally.

Still concerned that Flint's tally might disappear altogether.

And you've forgotten the goal scoring prowess of the O.G!  And I fancy either FF or Lucic for a wind-assisted goal some time in January.

Edit - What about McCoulsky?  Will he get any time in the first team this season, or just another season of loan football?

[Ian M]

30 minutes ago, reddogkev said:

That's a damn good post Ian; although I reckon Diedhou may score a few more, and Reid and Pato possibly a few less.  I'd also shave a few off of Đurić's tally.

Still concerned that Flint's tally might disappear altogether.

And you've forgotten the goal scoring prowess of the O.G!  And I fancy either FF or Lucic for a wind-assisted goal some time in January.

Edit - What about McCoulsky?  Will he get any time in the first team this season, or just another season of loan football?

Playing time will effect tallies a bit as well. Not-to-mention any more signings. Good point about the own goals! McCoulsky has not scored above Conference South level yet so I doubt we will see much of him in the first XI.

Pato scoring less seems to be a theme in this thread. He got 5 goals in 17 starts for us last season as a player who was in and out of the team.

[Ian M]

Just now, JamesBCFC said:

The snake I gave the OP is gone!

Sorry that was me clicking the wrong "x" to close the pop up window. Feel free to give me it back  

[RedM]

Great post @Ian M. I think the goals will be much more shared about this year compared to the Tammy One Man Show. I think players will be encouraged much more to shoot and attack where possible, i.e. dont just give up pocession for the sake of it, make sure there is a shot on. 

What about Penalties, Pack? Got to put his tally up a bit?  I know we don't get many but every goal scored is one less we have to keep out

[Ian M]

Just now, JamesBCFC said:

This is abuse of mod powers, I demand justice! 

In seriousness, it's a good post, as said yesterday, time for a proper rating rather than one for a dumb joke.

Don't worry, I'm building up a pretty nice collection of snakes in other places. 

[Monkeh]

14 minutes ago, RedM said:

Great post @Ian M. I think the goals will be much more shared about this year compared to the Tammy One Man Show. I think players will be encouraged much more to shoot and attack where possible, i.e. dont just give up pocession for the sake of it, make sure there is a shot on. 

What about Penalties, Pack? Got to put his tally up a bit?  I know we don't get many but every goal scored is one less we have to keep out

Joe always seems to hit a mean pen,

Looking at some of the build up play in the friendlies I don't think scoring will be an issue, 

[Robbored]

Sure Tammy scored plenty of goals for us last season but how many were down to his individual brilliance? I can think of one that probably only Tammy could have scored. The others were created by the rest of team. Of course he was frequently in the right place at the right time which is an ability that all  goalscorers have but getting the ball into the right areas is down to the team.

My point is that City will create chances and we have strikers to fill the void. Taylor had that "knack" at the gas. It seems as if Reid  is also developing that knack and as yet we don't know if Famara has the same ability. 

Unlike some others I'm not concerned about where the goals will come from. City will create chances and I'm sure. I'm more concerned about keeping the opposition out of our net.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Just now, Robbored said:

Sure Tammy scored plenty of goals for us last season but how many were down to his individual brilliance? I can think of one that probably only Tammy could have scored. The others were created by the rest of team. Of course he was frequently in the right place at the right time which is an ability that all  goalscorers have but getting the ball into the right areas is down to the team.

My point is that City will create chances and we have strikers to fill the void. Taylor had that "knack" at the gas. It seems as if Reid  is also developing that knack and as yet we don't know if Famara has the same ability. 

Unlike some others I'm not concerned about where the goals will come from. City will create chances and I'm sure. I'm more concerned about keeping the opposition out of our net.

 

Amazing - I actually completely agree with something you've posted.

I think though that Tammy had a particularly excellent ability of being in the right place at the right time which probably gave him an extra 6/7 goals that most strikers wouldn't have got. He's got long limbs too which allowed him to get a foot to balls that >6ft Taylor/Reid might not.

[LondonBristolian]

1 minute ago, Robbored said:

Sure Tammy scored plenty of goals for us last season but how many were down to his individual brilliance? I can think of one that probably only Tammy could have scored. The others were created by the rest of team. Of course he was frequently in the right place at the right time which is an ability that all  goalscorers have but getting the ball into the right areas is down to the team.

My point is that City will create chances and we have strikers to fill the void. Taylor had that "knack" at the gas. It seems as if Reid  is also developing that knack and as yet we don't know if Famara has the same ability. 

Unlike some others I'm not concerned about where the goals will come from. City will create chances and I'm sure. I'm more concerned about keeping the opposition out of our net.

 

With you on that. I think sometimes having a key player scoring a lot of goals means players look to him to take responsibility. The lack of TA and Tomlin means the whole team need to step up to the plate. I don't think anyone is going to get to Abraham or Kodjia levels but I think more goals will be shared around the team.

Besides, let's not forget that, in our most successful Championship season of recent years, we had no outstanding goal scorer and I would say - player for player - a weaker team. If LJ can build a unit that functions together - as he showed signs of doing in the last weeks of the season - then we will be fine.

[MC RISK77]

Bobby Reid 10 goals???? Love the optimism but reality in regards to the quality opposition in this league will hit us very shortly.

he may well start against Barnsley but I genuinely feel that once Đurić or Taylor are fit bobby will again be a bit part player to our season.

[Robbored]

4 minutes ago, MC RISK77 said:

Bobby Reid 10 goals???? Love the optimism but reality in regards to the quality opposition in this league will hit us very shortly.

he may well start against Barnsley but I genuinely feel that once Đurić or Taylor are fit bobby will again be a bit part player to our season.

Nobody has a crystal ball MC. Reid will play a more attacking position for sure but whether that's as one of a front two or as a midfielder we dont know yet.

Like everyone I'd love to him reach double figures. He may but he may not.

[Major Isewater]

We are going up say we are going up .

[Spud55]

30 minutes ago, Robbored said:

Nobody has a crystal ball MC. Reid will play a more attacking position for sure but whether that's as one of a front two or as a midfielder we dont know yet.

Like everyone I'd love to him reach double figures. He may but he may not.

To be fair to Young Bobby, he has always had the knack of getting in the position to score, but his composure has often let him down, but with a pre-season under his belt and the confidence that the goals he's got in those games, added to the fact that he will almost certainly get a run in the first few games, if he can score a couple in the first 4-5 games which is is very likely to play in then there is no reason that he can't continue in the number 10 role and score a good tally of goals.

Like others i'm not overly concerned on our goal scoring front, we make a lot of chances, its the other end that is concerning, hopefully Pisano will shore up the right side a bit and there were encouraging signs towards the end of last season definsively.