Lee Johnson - Time To Go

[JamesBCFC]

1 hour ago, Red 90 said:

Our current philosophy at the club seems to be buying young up and coming talent on the cheap (not proven at championship level but shown signs of promise) and then loan them out until they are 'ready'.

How great would it be if we could do that with our manager as well!! Loan him out and bring him back when he's learnt from his mistakes and ready to be a manager at this level! 

Although many of the happy clappers will rubbish this post and come back with 'were only 2 games in rubbish' this is based on his last 26 league games and more! (I'll let him off the 4 cup defeats to Man City, Watford and Plymouth)

Won 5

Drawn 11

lost 10

win rate of 19%.. If he repeats this form over the next 26 games I wonder how many of you will still be a #JohnsonIn

 

So why select the last 26 league games?

Perhaps because it suits you?

Use his whole record with us- therefore eliminating any chance of selection bias.

Or use the current season, as it is the only one using the current squad.

[BCFC Rich]

1 hour ago, Top Robin said:

I think you know that Londoner would not have started this thread if it was based purely on the first three games of this season....clearly his and many other people's frustrations have built up over a sustained 8 month bad spell which seems to be continuing into this new season......the performances so far are a long way from what they were up to Christmas last year.

I can take a poor run of maybe 4 or 5 games which a decent manger would have the ability to change, but our form has been really poor for many more than that and the signs are that it isn't turning around.

As a true supporter of this club who invests serious amounts of time and money following them every week, I (and Londoner) have the absolute right to criticise and urge for action to be taken to address the problem to get us playing better football and In turn achieve success for the benefit of the club and supporters alike. 

 

Yes but you and Londoner are just picking which period to look at to back up your opinion. We're not just looking at the first 3 games you say we're looking back to last season - from Jan on. But we're not going to look further back because that wouldn't help our point - we don't want to mention the fact that it was the way we played under LJ that actually got us excited that we could go up. 

And this is the problem you'll ignore the good cos it doesn't suit, others will ignore the bad and claim we have a genius in charge.

The fact is doomed to have these debates over and over because looking at his whole record here LJ averages 1.40 points a game in charge, which is upper mid-table. It's not brilliant enough to shut up his critics it's not shit enough to dampen his supporters - what is I would suggest is where we should expect to be. 

[Natchfever]

7 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

So why select the last 26 league games?

Perhaps because it suits you?

Use his whole record with us- therefore eliminating any chance of selection bias.

Or use the current season, as it is the only one using the current squad.

You would judge a player thus so why not the manager? Someone could have been stellar for 100 games and shit for the last 50. If so they would have been dropped and/or shifted.

[BCFC Rich]

7 minutes ago, Loon plage said:

You would judge a player thus so why not the manager? Someone could have been stellar for 100 games and shit for the last 50. If so they would have been dropped and/or shifted.

Yes last 50 maybe at a push but not half a season when the other half was really good.

[JamesBCFC]

12 minutes ago, Loon plage said:

You would judge a player thus so why not the manager? Someone could have been stellar for 100 games and shit for the last 50. If so they would have been dropped and/or shifted.

A manager is judged based on the performances of the 11 players who play each week.

A player is judged based on the performance of themselves.

 

But to go along with your comparison to a player, let's use the last 50 league games (as the person I quoted left out cup games)

18 wins, 18 draws, 14 defeats.

1.44 ppg (66 over a season)

36% win rate

36% draw rate

28% lose rate

[Natchfever]

1 minute ago, BCFC Richard said:

Yes last 50 maybe at a push but not half a season when the other half was really good.

Agree to disagree. He nearly took us down in 16/17 season so he has previous.

Amazing that there have been so many posts on this thread to be honest. LJ enjoys a special relationship with the Lansdown's and in my opinion is going absolutely nowhere be it August, December or May, whether people are for, against or on the fence.

That being the case, whatever you think of the Head coach, you get behind the team.

[JamesBCFC]

1 minute ago, Loon plage said:

Agree to disagree. He nearly took us down in 16/17 season so he has previous.

Amazing that there have been so many posts on this thread to be honest. LJ enjoys a special relationship with the Lansdown's and in my opinion is going absolutely nowhere be it August, December or May, whether people are for, against or on the fence.

That being the case, whatever you think of the Head coach, you get behind the team.

What part of his post are you disagreeing with?

He said one part of the season was bad and the other was really good.

You are disagreeing that the first half of the season was good?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Baldyman said:

I think that the fans general feeling of negativity is born out of our history at this level . We've traditionally faded after 2 or 3 seasons at this level , quite simply because the Club has never truly believed that it can get to the top table and has therefore NEVER truly pushed to get there . The fans see this apathy and start getting twitchy , in turn creating a tense atmosphere at the Gate and so the prophecy becomes self fulfilling .  I fear the club has perhaps shot itself in the foot pre season by not investing sufficiently whilst pulling in millions from sales and ave set a very negative tone from the word go . I've seen it so many times with us at this level unfortunately

Like

[One Team]

If SL didn't sack him after that horrendous run in the 16/17 season there is no way in the world he'll sack him now after a couple of games.

I've always thought even if we had gone down that season he wouldn't have been sacked. The special relationship clearly has benefits but it has downsides too.

That said, any manager needs at least 10 games of a new season to get settled so no need to call for his head yet.

If we are in the bottom three at Christmas then fair enough, but even then I'm not convinced SL would pull the trigger. 

[Natchfever]

2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

A manager is judged based on the performances of the 11 players who play each week.

A player is judged based on the performance of themselves.

 

But to go with your suggestion, let's use the last 50 league games (as the person I quoted left out cup games)

18 wins, 18 draws, 14 defeats.

1.44 ppg (66 over a season)

36% win rate

36% draw rate

28% lose rate

A players performance is often down to how they gel with their team mates but putting that to one side, and continuing with the footballer parallel if we had signed a league 1 striker, who had a bad scoring run of 4 goals in the last 27 matches, and his performances left many people bemused i'm certain the vast majority on this forum would be looking for an upgrade, based upon half a seasons ineptitude regardless of what the player had done previously on the grounds that good players don't take that long to get out of a rut.

Managers are often treated that way but not LJ. The club has aspirations of being a premier league side but doesn't have someone at the helm who can help get us there in my opinion.

Academic as he's here for the long haul.

[Curr Avon]

I saw the headline and thought Lee Johnson was constipated.

Then I realised it was Londoner.

Have you tried All Bran? Never fails.

You'll have to excuse me....  

[Natchfever]

8 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

What part of his post are you disagreeing with?

He said one part of the season was bad and the other was really good.

You are disagreeing that the first half of the season was good?

I'm disagreeing with applying 50 games in response to my post saying a player wouldn't get such latitude over half a season.

Understand now ?

[JamesBCFC]

1 minute ago, Loon plage said:

I'm disagreeing with applying 50 games in response to my post saying a player wouldn't get such latitude over half a season.

Understand now ?

Im baffled that you think a player vs a manager is in any way a valid comparison.

[downendcity]

7 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

Yes but you and Londoner are just picking which period to look at to back up your opinion. We're not just looking at the first 3 games you say we're looking back to last season - from Jan on. But we're not going to look further back because that wouldn't help our point - we don't want to mention the fact that it was the way we played under LJ that actually got us excited that we could go up. 

And this is the problem you'll ignore the good cos it doesn't suit, others will ignore the bad and claim we have a genius in charge.

The fact is doomed to have these debates over and over because looking at his whole record here LJ averages 1.40 points a game in charge, which is upper mid-table. It's not brilliant enough to shut up his critics it's not shit enough to dampen his supporters - what is I would suggest is where we should expect to be. 

You're absolutely right Richard. LJ has been an awkward devil because, depending on the time of the discussion, he's either a world beater ( his first season here, second half the second season and first half of last season) or a panel beater ( the rest of the time).

Objectively, our position in the league has improved during his time and during this period of time the club has improved in so many areas, especially off the pitch. However there is little doubt that there are a lot of fans who were against LJ's appointment in the first place, and in some cases this stems from his time here as a player. Accordingly, during the bad times these fans will understandably point to the "current" record at the time as evidence of his record justifying that he should be sacked, because they want him gone.  Do those same fans post the same during the other periods when we have shown promotion form? 

My frustration is the degree with which our form and results swing, and the periods that these swings of form last. This, more than anything, detracts from the progress in league position each season and gives ammunition to  LJ's ( and the club's ) staunchest critics. We might not challenge the play off positions this season, but I really hope that LJ irons out the wild fluctuations in form and results that have blighted the last 2 seasons.

Overall I am still onside with LJ as head coach, and the club's overall philosophy. However I think the next 4 months are the most crucial of LJ's time here. Despite many feeling that he is Sl's golden child, I think that SL has invested too much in the club's self sustaining philosophy ( academy and stadium) to risk it all with relegation. As a result if we are flirting anywhere near relegation and especially if on a downward spiral, I think SL would pull the trigger and especially as he has said that he is looking for a further improvement on last season's league position.

My only concern then would be who would replace LJ? I cannot see SL abandoning the philosophy/strategy he has put in place, so whoever comes in has to be prepared to work within the same set up and I reckon that the type of manager that many of LJ's, SL's and the club's detractors and critics would want ,would not take the job on those terms. 

 

 

 

[Red 90]

27 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

So why select the last 26 league games?

Perhaps because it suits you?

Use his whole record with us- therefore eliminating any chance of selection bias.

Or use the current season, as it is the only one using the current squad.

Okay why not look at his entire record as a manager then. What has LJ actually achieved other than 1 good cup run in his entire managerial career to make you so confident in him? Is it his multiple promotions he's had or his great success record in the transfer market?

 

[southvillekiddy]

2 hours ago, JasonM88 said:

Now that the rubbish reaction has been disabled on here, they have all been changed to likes. It now appears that the op has lots of likes. Mods, sort this out. 

Very relieved to see this has happened. The keyboard warriors who take every opportunity to put the boot into complete strangers who disagree with their "views" (ha, ha) should never have had that facility.

[headhunter]

2 minutes ago, Red 90 said:

Okay why not look at his entire record as a manager then. What has LJ actually achieved other than 1 good cup run in his entire managerial career to make you so confident in him? Is it his multiple promotions he's had or his great success record in the transfer market?

 

Agreed.

Cotterill - last 6 years as a Manager      40.7% win rate / at Bristol City 45.7% - FIRED because of poor form [plus non-compliance with the plan; he was a *it not filling the bench to make a point]

 

Johnson - total career as Manager 37.1% win rate / at Bristol City 38.1% overall, since Jan 1st 16.6%  - BULLET PROOF, COMPLIANT more £ in transfer market than any previous manager and that's even adjusting previous managers for inflation!!

[JamesBCFC]

13 minutes ago, Red 90 said:

Okay why not look at his entire record as a manager then. What has LJ actually achieved other than 1 good cup run in his entire managerial career to make you so confident in him? Is it his multiple promotions he's had or his great success record in the transfer market?

 

Out of interest, which managers (other than those who were gifted a job at a huge club with no financial constraints) achieved a lot in their first 5 years?

I need to have a reference point on who you think he needs to have emulated.

Has he achieved a great deal? No.

What has he done?

Stabilised a broke Oldham team, who have done worse and worse since he left.

Notable signings- Korey Smith.

He started Barnsley on their upward tragectory. They had a long bad run, which then became a long winning run. He left the job after something like 7 wins on the bounce and his final game was a JPT Semi Final win.

Notable signings- half the team they got promoted with.

Here, he took us away from a likely relegation, then had us around the playoffs in his second season, before a long bad run. In the third season he set/equalled a record for top flight teams beaten consecutively in the League Cup and took us to our first semi final of a major cup in a generation as well as our highest League finish in a decade

Signings with us have been very mixed, for Diedhiou theres Engvall.

But a number of players also improved under his coaching (Reid the obvious one). Brownhill has improved dramatically since signing, and Eliasson has transformed compared to last season.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

30 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

What part of his post are you disagreeing with?

He said one part of the season was bad and the other was really good.

You are disagreeing that the first half of the season was good?

It was just fantastic, exhilarating, proud, expectant, hopeful etc. etc. and then January 2018 came and the form so far continues, it doesn't help when some of LJ's glee club actually tell us it's a 'valid point' not to expect anything from the Middlesborough game, so on then to QPR at Loftus Road 1977 I believe was our last league win there and then Swansea away another game presumably not to expect anything from and then 5 tricky games in September.

Do you think at the end of September after 10 league games it will be fair to hold an opinion? and do you believe if SL has had enough by then (highly unlikely as that might be) that he will not make mention of the past 32 games at the press conference?

 

[JamesBCFC]

6 minutes ago, headhunter said:

Agreed.

Cotterill - last 6 years as a Manager      40.7% win rate / at Bristol City 45.7% - FIRED because of poor form [plus non-compliance with the plan; he was a *it not filling the bench to make a point]

 

Johnson - total career as Manager 37.1% win rate / at Bristol City 38.1% overall, since Jan 1st 16.6%  - BULLET PROOF, COMPLIANT more £ in transfer market than any previous manager and that's even adjusting previous managers for inflation!!

What was Cotterills record with us IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP?

[Esmond Million's Bung]

2 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

What was Cotterills record with us IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP?

I thought the rule is we cannot cherry pick sequences of results?

[BCFC Rich]

 

4 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

I thought the rule is we cannot cherry pick sequences of results?

It's not cherry picking it comparing like for like. If LJ managed us in league 1 what you're saying would make sense. 

[bengalcub]

If not lj then who ? Moyes , big Sam, tisdale (always linked but just taken new job ) Jamie mc , not sure any would do better with what we have here , I'm on the fence with lj but surely it's better the devil you know than the devil you don't? 

[B block]

11 hours ago, billywedlock said:

We not lost a league game yet, and very early days, but against it seems the majority, I agree. Another season wasted with LJ in charge. Out of his depth and making it up. Looking forward to the new excuses this season. He should write a book on it. How to con a billionaire. 

Corners I tell you, yes we lost 6 nil but the stats don’t lie, 2 corners this week but 1 last week, surely you can see the 100% improvement

but we list 6 nil? 

Ah yes a work in progress

[JamesBCFC]

1 minute ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

It was just fantastic, exhilarating, proud, expectant, hopeful etc. etc. and then January 2018 came and the form so far continues, it doesn't help when some of LJ's glee club actually tell us it's a 'valid point' not to expect anything from the Middlesborough game, so on then to QPR at Loftus Road 1977 I believe was our last win there and then Swansea away another game presumably not to expect anything from and then 5 games in September.

Do you think at the end of September after 10 league games it will be fair to hold an opinion? and do you believe if SL has had enough by then (highly unlikely as that might be) that he will not make mention of the past 32 games at the press conference?

 

I think after 10 games you will be able to have a more educated view on how the season may pan out.

(Not saying your view is uneducated, but that at 2 games in it is hard for anyone to say- unless your side is battered something like 6-0 in each game)

As for people saying "dont expect anything from 'Boro" no, it doesnt help, and I dont agree with them either (what also doesnt help is divisive terminology like labelling people as "happy clappers" or "LJ's glee club")

I think identifying what games are a tough one is fine, that is assessing the quality of the opposition.

5 minutes ago, Esmond Million's Bung said:

I thought the rule is we cannot cherry pick sequences of results?

If I said "what was Cotterills last 10 games for us" that would be cherry picking.

As I said to Red 90 earlier, full time here, or the current season- if we were in preseason I would have said the entirity of the previous one. The point being to use all data for one manager of any particular season. Cotterill had one season with us at this level, so asking what his record in that time was is no different.

The reason I asked is because anyone with half a braincell would be able to see that his win % with us was inflated by what was a fantastic season in League 1.

Johnson has only managed in the Championship, so viewing both managers record at this level in the closest you will see to a fair comparison though even then it isnt perfect.

Cotterills sacking was because we were firmly entrenched in a relegation fight, and had been since the start of the season.

We have not been in that position at any stage under Johnson.

[AppyDAZE]

1 hour ago, Alan Dicks said:

GET OUT OF LEE JOHNSON'S BACKSIDE

Dicks OUT! 

 

Oops, soz. Just had a flashback.

[Esmond Million's Bung]

2 minutes ago, BCFC Richard said:

 

It's not cherry picking it comparing like for like. If LJ managed us in league 1 what you're saying would make sense. 

No I am sorry you are wrong, people are and have been saying on this thread that using results from January to May is cherry picking, we have to take his record as a whole with us.

But hey let's broaden it to a level playing field with complete records throughout their careers.

Cotterill 40.7% in 688 games

Johnson 37.1% in 280 games

[headhunter]

17 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said:

What was Cotterills record with us IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP?

15.4% 

[Baldyman]

I rated LJ as a player so have no axe to grind . My feeling at the end of the season was that he should have been shown the door. He'd proven that 2 years in a row he struggled massively when faced with options and thus choices to make . It all went tits up last year once injured players returned. Sticking with him was , as my comment earlier alludes to , a statement from the club that they genuinely want survival and nothing more . We made the same mistake when losing to Hull and went down the season after . Bcfc does not share our ambition so he's going nowhere . 

[MATT BCFC]

3 hours ago, Alan Dicks said:

What if we're in the bottom 3 at christmas?

Has he got it in him to arrest the dropping stone that we have witnessed since Christmas some 8 months ago?

We shall see soon enough, my guess is he hasn't got it in him, hope he proves me wrong.

Doubt we will be but yes is a different story then. I think its mad to suggesting sacking a manager after 3 games though.

I have more concerns on how the club is being run in terms of selling key players and not really reinvesting most of that money back into the squad. Think whoever we have as manager will struggle if this continues. I get we have to sell the odd key player but selling a number of good/key players in the summer and spending at least less than half of that money on replacements is unlikely to be a winning formula I feel.