JamesBCFC Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 On 16/09/2018 at 10:51, cityexile said: I agree they look a very solid unit, and most of them look comfortable on the ball. I am a little nervous of the 'one goal in four' which is being quoted a lot in their favour. It's clearly true, but I tend to judge the effectiveness of our back line, indeed the shape of our team, as much by how many chances we give away, as how many we let in. I think this is down mainly to how we line up in midfield as much as anything, but in three of our four wins, we conceeded really good chances that should have led to more goals. Seems to be mainly a first half issue, and we seem to be finishing games strongly. Teams that go up seem to have the knack of just looking really tight all game, whereas we have in most games periods when we are definitely second best. The real exception for me was Swansea, which was the best defensive performance by the whole team since we beat Brighton away. Its early days, and they can only get better as they get to play more time as a unit. Delighted with how we are faring overall of course. Just trying not to get carried away as we are still work in progress. Our ‘expected goals’ against over the last 4 games.* Sheffield Utd- 0.8 Blackburn- 1.0 Swansea- 1.0 QPR- 1.3 Average- 1.025 As a comparison, our last 4 games of last season. Sheffield Utd- 0.3 Forest- 2.5 Hull- 1.4 Middlesbrough- 1.5 Average- 1.425 So there’s a suggestion we are allowing less clear cut chances against us, albeit not a huge sample size to go by. *sourced from Experimental 3-6-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, JamesBCFC said: Our ‘expected goals’ against over the last 4 games.* Sheffield Utd- 0.8 Blackburn- 1.0 Swansea- 1.0 QPR- 1.3 Average- 1.025 As a comparison, our last 4 games of last season. Sheffield Utd- 0.3 Forest- 2.5 Hull- 1.4 Middlesbrough- 1.5 Average- 1.425 So there’s a suggestion we are allowing less clear cut chances against us, albeit not a huge sample size to go by. *sourced from Experimental 3-6-1. Interesting stuff. Kind of implies that we should have conceded a goal a match in the last four, given the chances created. That would have left us with 2W, 2D, which oddly feels about right. Should not overthink it I guess, but the stats are interesting in suggesting that we have just about had the rub of the green in this little run with the other side missing chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Davefevs said: A supporter I was chatting to today, reckons Baker was injured last season and playing through it. Trouble is Dave, it oftens seems that Baker decides whether he is fit or not. I am not saying that he might nit be carrying something, but I think many players do and learn to manage it. The medical staff would only stop a player from making things worse and I think there has been a difference of opinion a few times over how fit he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, Port Said Red said: Trouble is Dave, it oftens seems that Baker decides whether he is fit or not. I am not saying that he might nit be carrying something, but I think many players do and learn to manage it. The medical staff would only stop a player from making things worse and I think there has been a difference of opinion a few times over how fit he is. We don’t know that though. Could be the head-coach asking him to play through pain barrier. We just don’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesBCFC Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, cityexile said: Interesting stuff. Kind of implies that we should have conceded a goal a match in the last four, given the chances created. That would have left us with 2W, 2D, which oddly feels about right. Should not overthink it I guess, but the stats are interesting in suggesting that we have just about had the rub of the green in this little run with the other side missing chances. Our expected goals for in those games was Sheffield Utd- 0.7 Blackburn- 2.0 Swansea- 2.0 QPR- 0.8 Average 1.375 So to put attack vs defence. 0.7 vs 0.8 (Sheffield Utd). A 0-0 or 1-1 draw the most likely outcome if the game was repeated with the same chances. But either side could have edged it 1-0 2.0 vs 1.0 (Blackburn) A City win the most likely result from chances made, but not as resounding as the actual scoreline suggested. 2.0 vs 1.0 (Swansea) Again a City win expected, but we were perhaps a bit wasteful, no more so than Swansea were however, so actual scoreline probably reflected the chances created to an reasonable degree. 0.8 vs 1.3 Our worst performance in this respect by some degree. A 1-1 draw probably the most likely outcome if the game was repeated with the same chances, with a couple of QPR wins happening in a larger sample. Our 3-1 win therefore would seem to flatter us. Of course, the stats cannot paint a full picture, and certainly not when just one statistic in isolation. One team could create 20 chances each with a 0.1 ‘expected goals’ value, while the other side creates 2 both valued at 0.5. The former team would get the higher value, but the latter would in reality be more likely winners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Said Red Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Davefevs said: We don’t know that though. Could be the head-coach asking him to play through pain barrier. We just don’t know. True, it's just my own feeling reading between the lines. There has also been a couple of times where he just seems to have walked off the pitch, with little or no discussion with the bench, but I am probably just reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 How we got Kalas down here i will never know. Utter class and far too good for this division. If we can keep him fit he could be the difference between us finishing top 6 rather than top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldlandReddies Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 14 hours ago, BobBobSuperBob said: Agree that the fee would not be OTT in these times (Can’t believe I’m thinking any £8 million fee is reasonable !!! ) Its the wages that would probably be a major obstacle I would think Kalas is on £40/50 k a week at Chelsea at least We were desperate for a top quality CH to come in urgently in view of the injuries to our two first choice CH's. In order to beat off top competition for Kalas we deffo had to go way beyond what we would normally be prepared to fork out on a weekly basis for any player in recent times. Looks like it wil pay off though judged by his performances since he arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobBobSuperBob Posted September 18, 2018 Report Share Posted September 18, 2018 8 hours ago, OldlandReddies said: We were desperate for a top quality CH to come in urgently in view of the injuries to our two first choice CH's. In order to beat off top competition for Kalas we deffo had to go way beyond what we would normally be prepared to fork out on a weekly basis for any player in recent times. Looks like it wil pay off though judged by his performances since he arrived. Totally agree - we were discussing the possibility of signing him permanently next season rather Han the cost of any loan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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