Mr Popodopolous Posted December 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2023 More Man United FFP suggestions. Surely a lot depends on their Covid losses. For 2021-22 alone, the heat of their huge loss they seem to have argued up to £40m in Covid related matters. As per Swiss Ramble anyway. If that is mostly accepted there are less issues. If not..that may have been eaten into by the whole early full elimination from Europe but I'm puzzled as to how £40m in Covid losses for 2021-22 alone stacks up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) *PSG are about as far removed from this thread as we can get but I still struggle to see how they comply to 2023. Your starting point is a €375.4m loss before tax inclusive of transfer profits and their income is reportedly up from €669.6m to €800m.. Target as per one report was a €20m FFP adjusted loss in the year. This starting point loss was despite and inclusive of a profit on player disposal of €31.8m. Depending on when in the season or summer the transfers fell, they can't have it both ways.. A further €11.9m to €29.7m in amortisation to add to the cost base before impact of any released. Ekitike also joined for €28.5m, 4 or 5 year deal, season of acquisition hard to say. *Yes nothing at all to do with owner being pally with Ceferin...? Edited December 26, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bristol Rob Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Never really sure what thread is best for this type of story. https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-efl-new-deal-talks-amid-funding-dispute-13037708 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Thanks for posting. I'm not hugely surprised because self-interest rules, 14/20 needed for a majority. The talk a while ago was that this and the new envisioned, already in force at UEFA level financial regs were linked. No funding deal no change?? Not sure the EFL should be accepting either unless things have improved from the last offer..still might advocate placing faith in the hands of an Independent Regulator. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 More clubs are at risk of relegation and needing to yoyo so that 14/20 will be a high bar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Issue for another day perhaps but it may interest among others. @Davefevs @downendcity @chinapig @Hxj @ExiledAjax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hxj Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Bristol Rob said: Never really sure what thread is best for this type of story. https://news.sky.com/story/premier-league-halts-efl-new-deal-talks-amid-funding-dispute-13037708 This is fine thanks! 1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Not sure the EFL should be accepting either unless things have improved from the last offer..still might advocate placing faith in the hands of an Independent Regulator. So if you were running a Premier League club would you sign the deal, and wait for an 'independent' (to you, but not other vested interests) regulator to demand changes, or wait and see how issues progressed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 42 minutes ago, Hxj said: So if you were running a Premier League club would you sign the deal, and wait for an 'independent' (to you, but not other vested interests) regulator to demand changes, or wait and see how issues progressed? Ah I think I see your point. I was looking more from the angle of should EFL clubs accept and if so why? My view is that perhaps they should not. I would sooner take my chances with the Independent Regulator as a Championship club given the proposed redistribution and baked in fresh advantages handed to relegated sides. From a PL perspective you think a Regulator would demand changes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hxj Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 31 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: From a PL perspective you think a Regulator would demand changes? I've no idea. But uncertainty causes doubt and confusion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Hxj said: I've no idea. But uncertainty causes doubt and confusion. That's fair. Self-interest may well rule in this debate between PL, EFL and certain types of club within but to me a starting point to a solution seems simple. 1) Pool Parachute and Solidarity money. 2) Weight it flatly by the division ie Championship, League 1 and League 2. 3) A unified FFP system as far as possible, loss limits may vary by division but either have P&S with the loopholes shut across all 4 or the 70% turnover ratio again with the relevant loopholes closed. 5) Clearly defined parameters and penalties, let the FA or some other unified body not the PL and EFL govern it, for compliance and sanctions certainly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hxj Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Personally I don't have an issue with Parachute Payments. You either make it impossible for promoted clubs to compete on promotion, or make it easier on the way down. I am sure that tweaks can be made, but the fundamentals don't concern me. Again I don't see the current differential FFP systems between PL/Championship and the rest of the leagues as a problem. Most lower league clubs are much more 'hand-to-mouth' businesses than the PL/Championship, plus anyone trying to buy into the Championship is still effectively cash limited by those FFP rules. As regards sporting sanctions and penalties I think that it is clear that the EFL had it's Epiphany moment over Derby and the PL over Everton. The new EFL system seems to be working well, I expect the PL to follow it in due course. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 I suppose I get Parachute Payments on one level but smoothing the cliff edge is vital for wider stability. How about only allowing for FFP purposes the portion of Parachute Payments equal to Solidarity Payments to be included in P&S returns and the rest for general stability etc but not to give a huge wage budget advantage..again merely a starting point. I guess but £39m plus allowables (I know cash vs non cash expenses) is rather high and gives a lot of risk. Cash Flow Idk, Stoke burnt through £39m in a year but obviously still P&S compliant. 2021-22 accounts. Yeah agreed. Would the new system allow a referral during the season for potential sanctions in the season of the breach, CFRU etc or would it still have to be the next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2023 Occasionally take a look at Leicester because of the relegated clubs to this season ie the 3 year period ending 2023-24 they perhaps seem most at risk. Starting point..£83m loss plus allowables in 3 seasons. Plus some small Covid costs from 2021-22. 2021-22 £92.4m pre-tax loss. They in their own accounts stated a Covid loss of £1.4m or similar. This was despite and inclusive of a Europa Conference League semi final, a top half PL finish and a Transfer Profit on Disposal of £9m. Think total income was £215m and the £9m also offset a bit. My best estimate when you add likely academy expenditure to the known allowables is a P&S allowable of £25m a year or thereabouts. P&S for 2021-22 could be £66m say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2023 My assumption is that Leicester spend £10-15m per season on their academy.. Lady season Fofana and belatedly Maddison were sold, Schmiechel too for about £1m and I assume the wage bill fell and the £2-3m impairment won't be repeated. 1) I saw a report that stated their TV money was £111-112m. Obviously no UEFA revenue or minimal and 8th to 18th, could their TV cash alone be £35-40m down. 2) For all the sales, Faes added for £15m, 3 year deal is a new £3m in amortisation alone. Souttar is £15/5.5, divide by around 11 for this about £1.36m, Kristansen is harder to pin down..some reports say £17m, some say £13.1m, point us whichever also divide by 5.5 or 11 for amortisation purposes. Tete also had a loan fee, that counts. 3) Even if not a full payoff the cost of sacking Rodgers is still a cost, and Smith will have been cheap but not free. 4) They extended their accounts to the end of June, so aspects will be unknowable right now. 5) Book Value to fee and reported sell on clause at point of disposal: 1) Schmeichel- went for around £1m didn't he. Pure profit. 2) Fofana- Reported initial fee of £70m. Reportedly joined Leicester in 2020 on a 5 year deal for £32m and then signed a new 5 year deal in March 2022. His book value at that time was about £22.4m and neatly that takes him up to near 5.5 years. Sold within 6 months, Book Value probably £20m and sell on to St Etienne 15% of Profit. Knock £25.7m off the £70m in gross fee. *2) Maddison..£40m. Signed a 5 year deal in 2018, signed for £22m and a new 4 year deal in 2020. Book Value at time of Disposal £3.3m and some £2.7m to Norwich. Knock those off the £111m in gross fees. *Some reports say initial fee £20m, some say £24m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2023 Not fully FFP, more football finance but West Brom takeover sure is dragging. https://www.westbromnews.co.uk/2023/12/27/west-brom-takeover-news-silence-deafening-fans-await-guochuan-lai-update/ I wonder if there will be opportunities there...perhaps even in January. One to keep an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) Couple more too. Stoke- Bet365 accounts which cover 1st April 2022 to 31st March 2023 are due out imminently, at least as per CH deadlines. These include certain results pertaining to Stoke City Holdings. Clowes Development UK Limited- should or could give some portion of Derby and their first year under Clowes. These cover April 1st 2022 to March 31st 2023. In theory Birmingham and Millwall usually out by now, in practice they have until end of March. Birmingham we can sort of work out, pushing £25m last year. Edited December 28, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 30, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 There is an element of political grandstanding in an electoral cycle but I'm sure I am not the only one sick of MPs and Politicians proclaiming on clubs and takeovers. https://www.westbromnews.co.uk/2023/12/29/west-brom-takeover-news-surely-close-after-nicola-richards-mp-statement/ They presumably run a fairly high but not amazingly high wage bill still, Corberan doing well in some off pitch circs but if it goes belly up well that's just tough luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Bet365 accounts are now technically overdue albeit I guess it differs with Bank Holiday, Christmas etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) Still overdue. Also due out today but maybe Christmas pushes it back a bit, Clowes Development UK Limited. Significant as it should include some info for Derby in 2022-23. EFL Business Plan should see them fine and they were under major restrictions, then the small matter of the League One wage rules anyway but wonder if the overarching company will release on time. They usually do.. Millwall are usually out by now- not this year they aren't. Middlesbrough had released by Christmas 2022..not tbis year they haven't. Preston perhaps did early one year, maybe last season- not this season they haven't. On and on it goes..definitively only us, Norwich and Plymouth have. Birmingham had to via HKSE and you can work backwards, estimate exchange rates etc, £24-25m pre tax loss probably. Blackburn had to release 9 months via Venkys London Limited..£20m or above I expect, certainly seemed like it. Beyond that no clue! Clubs are not being very forthcoming this season..we can try and extrapolate. They don't strictly need to release into the public domain until the end of February, March or even in some cases April as far as regs go. Edited December 31, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Even Man United who have to quarterly release accounts..I'm not altogether with NYSE regs, permissible timeframes etc have nor released their first quarter for 2023-24, July 1st-September 30th 2023 ir covers. It's probably later than ever, I suppose could've been worse in Covid years but in general the worse their quarterly results, the later they release. Whereas HKSE, Birmingham parent company always release like clockwork- 3 months after the year end (June 30th end) and 2 months after the halfway year end (6 months to December 31st, released by last day of February). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just thinking about it though...clubs on foreign Stock Exchanges as part of a group, especially HK for a 2nd tier club. Game of the people, stolen by the suits!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) Ah yes a few more random thoughts. This is the latest since 2012 at the bare minimum, no easy to find data that goes back further, that Man United have released their first quarter Earnings. It states 8th December 2023 but in reality there seems to have been nothing. https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/ I saw a bit of Leicester analysis on their forum. Good that they tried to extrapolate 2023-24 and add to 2021-22..but they neglected 2022-23?? Plus stuck the Maddison profit into this season which would be fine but drastically reduces loss offsetting profits in 2022-23. Norwich and West Brom will see their FFP/P&S system vastly deteriorate without promotion. Watford also have a swing from Parachute Payments to Solidarity and £61m to £39m but selling Pedro and Sarr will cushion this somewhat. Surely questions still pertaining to their sale and loanback for Kamara but if any guilt found most likely a P&S adjustment downwards to fair or book value- chances are it wouldn't materially impact upon their P&S returns for a while yet if it is adjusted. Still wonder about Birmingham, Cardiff, QPR to varying levels..Stoke have surely reduced their headroom a bit but no notable issues. Millwall and Preston both likely posted large losses by their standards albeit Preston won't repeat the £20m again..If they do panic stations! Forget when Piroe sold but Swansea could post a large loss in one year or the other. Edited December 31, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Well well well. Chatter that Nottingham Forest could be charged with breaching FFP! https://www.thetimes.co.uk/sport/football/nottingham-forest-could-face-ffp-financial-charge-everton-risk-second-penalty-premier-league-h0zqv8vft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoystonFoote'snephew Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Well well well. Chatter that Nottingham Forest could be charged with breaching FFP! https://www.thetimes.co.uk/sport/football/nottingham-forest-could-face-ffp-financial-charge-everton-risk-second-penalty-premier-league-h0zqv8vft But still nothing further on Manchester City dodgy finances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said: But still nothing further on Manchester City dodgy finances. Their hearing is scheduled for Autumn 2024 last I read. There are multiple clubs I have questions over different timeframes about outside of the obvious Man City and Chelsea historic stuff (albeit Chelsea could also fail this season the £105m test). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 The more the better really. Hopefully they have a closer look at Bournemouth, Fulham and going back a bit further perhaps even the Mendes year at Wolves, Man United and their £182m pre tax losses aggregated across 2021-22 and 2022-23, Aston Villa in the year of promotion etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Also have a problem with Stoke and their inordinate and absurd Covid add-backs pertaining to the transfer market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 (edited) Percy now. Sounds like a charge could be coming.. Also says at least two other PL clubs could be in trouble. Edited January 2 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 (edited) Di Marco might be Forest’s best signing! Edited January 2 by Davefevs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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