chinapig Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 Kieran Maguire reports that Forest have issued a billion shares - at a penny each. Turns out though that this was the owner converting £12m in loans to shares so not as odd as it sounded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 @Davefevs Stoke appear to have sold both the stadium and the training ground, as I half expected! Bet365 accounts out although things not working well on my phone today...Kieran Maguire mentions a £55m loss but whether the Bet365 accounts align with the club ones is a different debate. The stadium and training ground sales would have been between then and May 31 2021. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 Quick skimread of Bet365. Phone worked for a bit seems it has risen by £30m in 3 seasons. Sale price £70.25m, if included at cost was £28m, prior valuation=£40m. £30-42m profit on disposal then, sold to Bet365 Group. No mention of what the training ground went for from what I can see but the ground 25% more valuable than Villa Park are we sure?? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: Quick skimread of Bet365. Phone worked for a bit seems it has risen by £30m in 3 seasons. Sale price £70.25m, if included at cost was £28m, prior valuation=£40m. £30-42m profit on disposal then, sold to Bet365 Group. No mention of what the training ground went for from what I can see but the ground 25% more valuable than Villa Park are we sure?? I thought stadium "sales" no longer counted towards FFP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, chinapig said: I thought stadium "sales" no longer counted towards FFP. Neither do Fixed Assets verbatim!! I'll explain or try to. Devil is in the detail here. Stoke accounts as displayed on Bet365 show the losses that they do. However the Bet365 accounts were made up to 28th March 2021, whereas the Stoke accounts run to 31st May 2021. The latter are not out yet but the Bet365 give some of the football segment/section. The stadium and training ground "sales"- transactions maybe a better word as they appear to have just been sold back to Bet365, despite already sitting on the Balance Sheet although would have to look again. These were listed as a Post Balance Sheet event but this would perhaps be a Bet365 not club one...if it was done up to or including May 31st 2021 then it's the right year at least. Selling to the parent, hmm...then there are the questions of the valuation surge, the date- Land Registry showed nothing as of June 2nd 2021, checked a bit before and cannot be backdated for FFP and the rent moving forward- £3-4m per year for the ground alone? Again for FFP. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Forgot to add 1) Stoke's Upper Loss Limit to 2020/21 (£35m £13m £13m £13m)/4 x 3=£55.5m. To 2022 it's (£13m £13m £13m £13m) /4x3=£39m same to 2023 due to EFL FFP roll up. 2) Although I expect the transactions were done in time..nothing on Land Registry as of June 2nd 2021 when I checked in late 2021- seemed an odd kinda entry and the deadline was the end of May 2021. Less detail on Training Ground. 3) Player Impairment- but attributed to Covid, well that needs reallocation back to FFP for a start! £30m that year ie 2019/20 and maybe although not certain, £3.75m in 2020/21! EFL need to go in hard tbh, this has potential to be the 2nd most egregious case yet- after Derby and their saga I'd say. Edited March 3, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Cardiff lost £12m last year which is £23.4m over the 2 seasons. despite Parachute Payments. That's before Covid and FFP but averaged at £11.2m beforehand. Yes Revenue will rebound but that Parachute to Solidarity fall will leave a £30m size hole. This year, it's £55.5m Upper Loss, whereas to 2023- and beyond- it's £39m. No Fixed Asset sales or Covid related Impairments which coming from Cardiff surprises me slightly all told! Edited March 3, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 Been in office all day, lots of catching up to do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Been in office all day, lots of catching up to do No tea for you until you've done your homework then Dave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 3, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 11 hours ago, chinapig said: Kieran Maguire reports that Forest have issued a billion shares - at a penny each. Turns out though that this was the owner converting £12m in loans to shares so not as odd as it sounded. Presumably just taking the loss limit to the Upper level- gap between lower, £5m accounting plus FFP costs in a year and upper as we know £13m accounting plus FFP costs- that gap needs filling by equity or equivalent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) Cardiff City (Holding) Taking there last 4 years accounts. Last season, well inside P&S, not forgetting their one season in PL means a larger allowance, £74m * 3/4 = £55.5m. This season’s accounts will be fine too, as that big loss drops off, plus they still have the £35m PL allowance. (Profit and loss column not yet know til next year) Suggests they will be fine for a couple of seasons…PPs their saving grace. We can scratch them off being in P&S trouble for now. Edited March 4, 2022 by Davefevs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) Nottingham Forest accounts are out. Similar to their 2020/21 but their Covid claimed add backs- hmmm...plus one or two other bits. Unlikely they fail to 2021. 1) Loan write offs in 2019/20 and 2020/21. £5m apiece, fairly sure that doesn't count towards FFP. Covid Costs etc £8m (I'm rounding again) for 2019/20 and the same again 2020/21...dunno about that!! I certainly think a sum total of £10m is okay. Intriguingly, a forecast of £12m for this season!?Rounding down again but this 3 year suggestion is about £16m over and above the EFL limits recently agreed. Sum total to 2022, £28-29m. Edited March 4, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) Luton- as expected, no problems whatsoever. The number of clubs who took Business Interruption insurance or similar is striking- I make that Blackburn, Luton and Preston- and though not checked for a while, possibly Barnsley and Birmingham? Ah yes the Nottingham Forest bits, I posted on earlier but Kieran Maguire. Add back in (I assume) Loans written off...in other words. Aggregate Loss before Tax £31,473,000 Impact of Loan Write Offs not included £10,000,000 Minus Est/read FFP allowances £5m x 2 Covid Losses in line with EFL levels Probably a 2 year aggregate of £10m is fair, not looked in depth. Averaged P&S Loss over the 2 year period of £10,736,500. I always assumed their FFP allowances were £6m per year but SwissRamble in recent times has said £5m- but if it's £6m then knock a £1m off that averaged P&S loss ie £9,736,500. Remember too that it is 13 month accounts, reverting back to 12 might improve it for 2021/22. Edited March 4, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 15 hours ago, Davefevs said: Cardiff City (Holding) Taking there last 4 years accounts. Last season, well inside P&S, not forgetting their one season in PL means a larger allowance, £74m * 3/4 = £55.5m. This season’s accounts will be fine too, as that big loss drops off, plus they still have the £35m PL allowance. (Profit and loss column not yet know til next year) Suggests they will be fine for a couple of seasons…PPs their saving grace. We can scratch them off being in P&S trouble for now. Although the TV Revenue will plummet- do largely agree with your analysis though, the stadium revaluation bit is intriguing...they can't use it now of course, given the Fixed Asset rule- too late basically if they decided it might be a good plan. Promotion Bonuses- saw an estimate by Swiss Ramble that these were £23m in 2017/18 and I believe are excluded from FFP- so they seem well well within to 2021 and because of the PL starting point comfortably to this season and it's Profit or Loss before tax I thought so the PL starting point might be ...intriguing to see post Parachutes what it'll look like in the Projections to May 2023- that's my interest in them from an FFP perspective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) Thought I'd have a quick look. Stoke valued- and sold the Bet 365 at £70.25m- independently valued of course. 28th May 2021, via Stoke City Holdings and Property I expect- the consolidator for the club and Propco. This I assume is either a £42m profit of disposal or a £30m one- depends on what the carrying value at time of disposal is, was it the prior independent valuation or was it carried as if at cost? Quite a rise isn't it! The past valuations, and this is all using DRC were as follows... Stoke City independent valuation of the Bet365 (although it was of course the Britannia then) 2012 2015 2018 Increase of 75% in valuation in 3 short years?? Wow- is there gold in them thar Potteries!! My base assumption is that it is Proceeds - Cost but I can't actually find an accounting policy for disposal of fixed assets unless I missed it. Edited March 4, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 (edited) Forgot about this bit...rationale or fig leaf? Yeah, the rationale to transfer from Stoke City Property Limited- to purchase even though it already sat on the Bet365 balance sheet as of 2020...is to consolidate it all under one centrally managed and controlled entity- I believe the rationale fig leaf or one of them in 2018 for Derby County, was Mel Morris and his desire to develop the stadium into an entertainment venue, spoke passionately on Talksport he did- perhaps he still holds that desire, with or without Derby County? Who knows! There is probably an interview or transcript for the Talksport bit and it is referenced in the Independent Disciplinary Commission for Derby in August 2020. Unsure if the Training Ground sat on it because it wasn't listed separately on there. Wonder what the profit on Claytonwood was- because anything substantial could be called into question by the accounts released last May for Stoke City Property. "Not materially different from the net book value included in the financial statements"- yes couldn't be quantified but come on...major profit=a potential question? I accept that some kinda profit is plausible for the Training Ground but not materially different means it shouldn't be substantial or jump off the page? They are also going to be redeveloping and doing work on the stadium and training ground I have read...but if it's all owned by the UBO, what is to stop them- and Infrastructure costs are excluded from FFP anyway. Edited March 4, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 Hmmmm...Will be interesting to see how this plays out! Barnsley's owners are American or one of them is I believe and they can be quite open to litigation! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 (edited) Also. https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/barnsley-reading-report-to-efl-26404603 Sadly the financial reporting in the Mirror- the football financial reporting- is not what it should be. https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/sport/football/barnsley-could-threaten-legal-action-against-reading-if-they-are-relegated-3600399 I do think there is a certain level of misconception among the Barnsley fans though...if principle of reset kicks in then it's either... a) A £13m P&S/FFP loss for this season- that in accounting terms is £13m + an est. £5m in allowable costs although seen some other significantly higher estimates and £2.5m in Covid losses- they sold Olise for £8m so I'm not so sure they fall foul. Or b) A £19-20m P&S/FFP loss for this season- that's £19-20m plus est. £5m in allowables and £2.5m in Covid losses- Olise sale should see them okay perhaps... Depends if we use Renhe Sports Management- £11m accounting loss in 2018/19- or Reading FC- think a £30m accounting loss, as the basis. £5m est. allowables. Principle of reset would reset down to £13m anything that exceeds it, but if the loss in the year falls below £13m, it remains at that. Aggregate of the 2 preceding years would be a better basis but unsure the EFL do it like that. Edited March 7, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 They also, or some of them also perhaps misunderstand that 2019/20 and 2020/21 were a combined average and that the EFL would have had the figures or projections well before the official accounts were out- what matters now is that they are abiding in real time to their conditions over this and next season- including Projected numbers vs allowance for 2021/22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 7, 2022 Report Share Posted March 7, 2022 What are they claiming Reading have done wrong? The loans of Rahman, Drinkwater etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 18 hours ago, Davefevs said: What are they claiming Reading have done wrong? The loans of Rahman, Drinkwater etc? Good question. Seems to be little detail tbh so I assume it's: a) The failure to stick to their FFP allowance this season (£13m or £20m subject to how exactly the principle of reset was applied, club or parent etc). b) The failure to stick to the budget- £21m on player wages from memory. c) Sale targets for Jan 2022. Birmingham definitely had one in 2019, maybe Reading did in terms of sales and amortisation reduction. How Barnsley would know the finer details is a different q. They can estimate on a) perhaps but that aside... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) Little bit more- while they aren't Championship, you'd assume that it can follow a club down especially if they yo-yo.. Or is it more the case that 2017/18, 2018/19 and 2019/20 and 2020/21 average would be considered the benchmark for a club relegated in 2020/21? If not then 2018/19, 2019/20 and 2020/21, 2021/22 and maybe even the combined average of 2019/20 and 2020/21, 2021/22 and 2022/23 would still fall within Championship jurisdiction. Sheffield Wednesday- their rent on Hillsborough might have been as high as £2.8m in 2019/20, although this is by no means certain. Sheffield 2 2020 accounts Aligns with Sheffield Wednesday 2020 accounts However, the rent free period- the year 1 rent free, and £1.5m in year 2 presumably, does not altogether align with what Sheffield 3 shows- perhaps it is no and then low rent, followed by a big bump and then the average drops back again? They all run on slightly different periods too, ie the club in isolation is 12 months, but the Sheffield 2 and Sheffield 3 are from date of incorporation to end of July- perhaps 13 months and a week, 10 days something like that. Sheffield 3 2020 accounts Finally, a little more light is shed as well on a) The company who valued it at £60m and b) The valuation method! We also know finally that it was done AFTER the 2017/18 reporting period but that Shaun Harvey seemed to permit it for reasons best known to himself- yes the written reasons showed that it was done after but planned before but confirmation is excellent- had to be completed by 31st July 2018 for inclusion in those accounts- what baffles me however is why after getting the valuation in mid August 2018, it took until mid to late June 2019 to finally complete the transaction!? It's not like there are numerous parties they had to deal with, and they had seemingly got some kind of green light from Harvey (he wasn't authorised to give the green light as it turned out but everyone thought otherwise in August 2018) so wouldn't you rush it through? Why on earth should it take 10 months for an RPT such as this. Although all that said, Note 6 is rather interesting... As long as rent- paper or cash- is still accounted for in the correct manner for FFP, I'm happy. Edited March 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) Hmm, looks like John Roddison was and still is at the company who valued it- a director anyway- and only left Sheffield Wednesday Community Trust/Programme in November 2020. https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05053927/officers https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/02950018/officers Granted the latter is only a directorship of a Community Programme and tbh -12, okay reduced to -6 and with a rental needing paid I'm not so bothered but would be interesting to see ties at other clubs. Edited March 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) I've done some rough numbers on Stoke- treat with caution and it's still an ongoing project, the lack of 2020/21 accounts definitively out there makes it difficult but from what we know for sure, combined with an estimated FFP allowance of £7m per season- seen it suggested by SwissRamble in the past, Kieran Maguire also once suggested £20m in a 3 year period. Bear in mind that a) The Upper Loss Limit to 2020/21 is £55.5m and b) That this assumes a breakeven in P&S terms for last season hence the halving- can't do much else with the limited info out there and that c) It drops to £39m THIS season ie the period ending in 2021/22. Parachute Payments also ended last season- the third and final season. It's Championship revenues now! Plus the small matter of their claimed Covid costs smashing through the EFL allowances for the two years by £28,223,000 in 2019/20 alone! Edit- messed up one or two calculations slightly... Edited March 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 My excel template is that there waiting to go! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) Edited version. It's assuming breakeven for P&S in the last season- the £56m reported via Bet365, it's unclear if that is for the season or if that is until late March 2021. That £38m in the light of the EFL's £10m permitted level- they can't both work. Year Revenue- £- inc. interest Accounting Profit or Loss- £ P&S Allowances, EST- £m P&S Profit or Loss- £ Covid Allowances- £ Revised P&S, Covid Profit or Loss- £ 3 year figure- Covid & P&S- £ Profit on Disposal of Players- £ Wage Bill- £ Player Amortisation- £ P&S Projected overspend- £ Size of P&S Hole to fill (Projected)- £ Where it ranks on the sliding scale...loss=pts 2017/18 127,274,000 30,270,000 7,000,000 23,270,000 N/A 23,270,000 WITHIN 22,230,000 95,964,000 26,553,000 N/A N/A N/A 2018/19 70,778,000 15,392,000 7,000,000 8,392,000 N/A 8,392,000 WITHIN 18,193,000 57,819,000 28,992,000 N/A N/A N/A 2019/20 49,969,000 88,455,000 7,000,000 81,455,000 38,223,000 43,232,000 N/A 3,139,000 54,798,000 30,274,000 N/A N/A N/A 2020/21 ? ? 7,000,000 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Averaged * ? 44,227,500* 7,000,000 37,227,500* 19,111,500* 18,116,000 * 49,778,000- WITHIN* ? ? ? N/A- BUT ? N/A- ? N/A- ? Edited March 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) What a reworked version- and this is still provisional- might look like if we take the EFL reported limits for Covid is this... I am going to assume an equal distribution ie not x/£5m-=Covid loss but £5m per year distributed as a club may see fit over the 2 year joined up period. Could be wrong of course and it maybe £5m and £5m standalone but that's another debate... I am also going to assume that Stoke like most Championship clubs would comfortably claim the £10m in 2 seasons. Year Revenue- £- inc. interest Accounting Profit or Loss- £ P&S Allowances, EST- £m P&S Profit or Loss- £ Covid Allowances- £ Revised P&S, Covid Profit or Loss- £ 3 year figure- Covid & P&S- £ Profit on Disposal of Players- £ Wage Bill- £ Player Amortisation- £ P&S Projected overspend- £ Size of P&S Hole to fill (Projected)- £ Where it ranks on the sliding scale...loss=pts 2017/18 127,274,000 -30,270,000 7,000,000 -23,270,000 N/A -23,270,000 WITHIN 22,230,000 95,964,000 26,553,000 N/A N/A N/A 2018/19 70,778,000 -15,392,000 7,000,000 -8,392,000 N/A -8,392,000 WITHIN 18,193,000 57,819,000 28,992,000 N/A N/A N/A 2019/20 49,969,000 -88,455,000 7,000,000 -81,455,000 5,000,000 -74,455,000 N/A 3,139,000 54,798,000 30,274,000 N/A N/A N/A 2020/21 ? ? 7,000,000 ? 5,000,000 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Averaged * ? -44,227,500* 7,000,000 -37,227,500* 5,000,000 -32 227,500* -63,889,500* ? ? ? 8,389,500* 8,389,500* £8-10m=7 pts* Upper Loss Limit=£55.5m to 2021...hence why the Projected figure is as it is and not smashing by £20-25m. All quite provisional still! Means they need an accounting or at the very least FFP profit in 2020/21, let alone the combination of sliding Upper Loss Limit with Parachutes ending looking beyond that! I make it on early estimates, a £15m ACCOUNTING Profit needed in 2020/21. Perhaps a bit more. Edited March 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 (edited) Hmm...having had a closer look at those Bet365 accounts. Post year end of Bet365 I assume- but still within year end for Stoke- although they're less than sharp Land Registry wise. Quote "All financial statements are made up to 28 March 2021 or 30 March 2021 dependent on local filing requirements except for Stoke City Holdings Limited, Stoke City (Property) Limited and Stoke City Football Club Limited which have a 31 May 2021 year end"! Feels a weird mix between the Derby and SWFC cases as of now...strange how they only posted Operating Losses in the Bet365 bit. Like a rubik's cube this...! Edited March 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 9, 2022 Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Its bonkers, and I hope the EFL are all over it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted March 9, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2022 Totally! To say nothing of what I DMed you...that too, if we can spot it then they most certainly can/should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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