The Championship FFP Thread (Merged)

[Mr Popodopolous]

17 hours ago, Davefevs said:

We haven’t seen 20/21’s accounts yet, so got no idea of their position.

Yeah this is true. I have to assume that they're compliant as it stands as they're not under any kind of publicly reported embargo. They could be in an agreement with the EFL on expenditure that falls short of a hard business plan and official sanctions at this stage.

The bottom line is though that give or take, they need to have cut their FFP loss by minimum of £37m in 2020/21 from that reported in 2019/20 to keep within until last year they've been quite prompt ie ahead of the formal deadline. Often November, December time in fact!

Edited February 1, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Thought I would have a quick check. Bear in mind that none barring Derby are actually over statutory or presumably EFL deadlines.

Clubs yet to announce, publish or submit to CH for 2020/21...

Barnsley

Birmingham- Although the HKSE numbers usually are quite accurate.

Blackburn- Venkys London Limited but that runs March-March even though it sits above Blackburn.

Bournemouth

Cardiff

Coventry

Derby- Will they ever see the light of day?? Albeit barring any issues this season, the FFP to 2021 is settled. Would be useful to know in terms of what the EFL allowed for Covid costs.

Huddersfield

Luton

Middlesbrough

Nottingham Forest

Preston

QPR

Reading- Though the FFP is settled and ongoing. Would be useful to see to know what the EFL allowed for Covid costs.

Stoke

Swansea

Clubs newly promoted to the Championship last year who haven't

Blackpool

Peterborough

Clubs relegated from the PL last year who haven't

Fulham

Sheffield United

West Brom

Clubs promoted from the Championship who haven't

Watford

Clubs relegated from the Championship who haven't

Rotherham

Sheffield Wednesday

You'd hope that the EFL have a good handle on it of course, numbers wise and expected numbers wise. 

Varied Holding and subsidiary companies are also in the mix, yet to submit. Indeed Sheffield 3 Limited, the company that the stadium was 'purchased'  through, still haven't submitted accounts that were due end of last July I believe.

Edited February 3, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Bristol Rob]

18 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Thought I would have a quick check. Bear in mind that none barring Derby are actually over statutory or presumably EFL deadlines.

Clubs yet to announce, publish or submit to CH for 2020/21...

Barnsley

Birmingham- Although the HKSE numbers usually are quite accurate.

Blackburn- Venkys London Limited but that runs March-March even though it sits above Blackburn.

Bournemouth

Cardiff

Coventry

Derby- Will they ever see the light of day?? Albeit barring any issues this season, the FFP to 2021 is settled. Would be useful to know in terms of what the EFL allowed for Covid costs.

Huddersfield

Luton

Middlesbrough

Nottingham Forest

Preston

QPR

Reading- Though the FFP is settled and ongoing. Would be useful to see to know what the EFL allowed for Covid costs.

Stoke

Swansea

Clubs newly promoted to the Championship last year who haven't

Blackpool

Peterborough

Clubs relegated from the PL last year who haven't

Fulham

Sheffield United

West Brom

Clubs promoted from the Championship who haven't

Watford

Clubs relegated from the Championship who haven't

Rotherham

Sheffield Wednesday

You'd hope that the EFL have a good handle on it of course, numbers wise and expected numbers wise. 

Varied Holding and subsidiary companies are also in the mix, yet to submit. Indeed Sheffield 3 Limited, the company that the stadium was 'purchased'  through, still haven't submitted accounts that were due end of last July I believe.

So who do you expect to be in a similar boat to City?

Would guess Boro (similar size club, similar transfer policy) Forest maybe.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 hours ago, Bristol Rob said:

So who do you expect to be in a similar boat to City?

Would guess Boro (similar size club, similar transfer policy) Forest maybe.

To which season ie which period? To the combined average of 2020 and 2021 ie to last season, to 2022 or indeed to 2023 next season?

Middlesbrough potentially yes but their amortisation seems to have dropped drastically in recent times, which helps. All the same the 2018/19 profit drops off but if Spence can hold his reported value then as a free transfer, a £12m move to the PL helps a lot in 2022/23.

Stoke surely although there is some uncertainty about how much they have impaired or can impair- they tried to put £30m of transfer fee amortisation still outstanding down to Covid in 2019/20!? Surely that cannot go unchallenged. Even so, that is an FFP loss of £43m 2019/20 alone after Covid claims and usual allowables.

Their limit to 2021 as a relegated side and Covid was complex but an upper loss tariff of £55.5m, this season it falls to £39m- last season was also third and final year of Parachute Payments.

Nottingham Forest are often close to the wire but sold- or is that 'sold' Carvalho to Olympiakos, the owners main club for according to some reports £14m in January.

They often sell youth players legitimately and staying down we could see one of Worrall or Johnson going for an 8 figure fee- reportedly they turned down £15m for the latter in January!

I'd say Cardiff too- but the uncertainty over Sala could swing in their favour. If they win their case they can write £15-20m back to Profit and Loss, reversal of provision and @Hxj reckons it can be the season of the decision. Last seasons accounts will give a better indication.

I think for FFP purposes it should be the season the Provision was made or the season after otherwise that's could be an unbelievable, freakish, outrageous bit of fortune out of a tragedy. They too are on the £55.5m to this season that will fall to £39m next season.

If they stay down, I expect Bournemouth and Fulham could have some issues. Limits for both would drop to £55.5m and in the case of Bournemouth the 3rd year of Parachute Payments of course is markedly lower.

West Brom would also drop to £55.5m but I don't really see them running into FFP issues for a while yet.

Huddersfield would drop to £39m as did Swansea this year and Parachute Payments expire at the same time but I don't see them in FFP trouble.

Reading obviously have their current ongoing issues.

Subject to the precise nature of the rules for relegated clubs, if there is any carry over from the final season ie Relegated, League One, League One then the 2018/19 restated Stadium Profit drops off for Sheffield Wednesday, the new starting point is their 2019/20 loss and whatever their 2020/21 figures was as the starting point- definitely could exceed £39m to next year..

£19m profit and £3m in allowances costs in 2018/19 makes it virtually impossible to fail to 2022 but she that goes?

One to watch in the 3 year period ending in 2023/24 might be Birmingham.

Edited February 4, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

I've a horrible feeling though that ongoing or legacy issues carrying over aside- ie Reading, maybe Sheffield Wednesday due to promotion, player sales, questionable accounting treatments,and reversal of a provision if the case successful that was borne out of a tragedy, we might be the only ones holding the parcel or looking for a seat when the music stops.

Edited February 4, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Strange old system FFP.

Stoke made an FFP loss of about £43m in 2019/20, halved that's £21.5m, £8m in 2018/19 and about £23m on relegation from the PL. Upper Loss Tariff to 2021, £55.5m of which they've used £52.5m.

This drops to £39m this season.

Yet looking at their side tonight..

Ben Wilmot starts, so does PL loanee Harwood-Bellis.

Joe Allen and Nick Powell as part of the CM 3.

That young Aston Villa loanee winger wide of a front 3.

Players such as Liam Moore (one of Reading's top earners), Clucas, Maja on the bench.

Vrancic not even in the 18!!

Whereas we on our £39m limits lost £21m, made a Profit of £15m in 2018/19.

Combined average anything from £10.5-16.5m in the Covid period.

£16.5-22.5m to 2021, 3 year period.

In all probability, an FFP loss of say £18m this season.

£13.5-19.5m this season post transfer business. We're scrambling around for signings in the summer.

Stoke with £52.5m in 2.5 of 3 seasons or £29.5m out of £39m already banked signing players like that!?

Though for completeness, Clucas 2018, Powell 2019 and Allen new deal post relegation..

Edited February 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

15 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Strange old system FFP.

Stoke made an FFP loss of about £43m in 2019/20, halved that's £21.5m, £8m in 2018/19 and about £23m on relegation from the PL. Upper Loss Tariff to 2021, £55.5m of which they've used £52.5m.

This drops to £39m this season.

Yet looking at their side tonight..

Ben Wilmot starts, so does PL loanee Harwood-Bellis.

Joe Allen and Nick Powell as part of the CM 3.

That young Aston Villa loanee winger wide of a front 3.

Players such as Liam Moore (one of Reading's top earners), Clucas, Maja on the bench.

Vrancic not even in the 18!!

Whereas we on our £39m limits lost £21m, made a Profit of £15m in 2018/19.

Combined average anything from £10.5-16.5m in the Covid period.

£16.5-22.5m to 2021, 3 year period.

In all probability, an FFP loss of say £18m this season.

£13.5-19.5m this season post transfer business. We're scrambling around for signings in the summer.

Stoke with £52.5m in 2.5 of 3 seasons or £29.5m out of £39m already banked signing players like that!?

Though for completeness, Clucas 2018, Powell 2019 and Allen new deal post relegation..

Don’t forget FFP allowances.  Stoke are Cat 1.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Don’t forget FFP allowances.  Stoke are Cat 1.

That's true. Perhaps I have underestimated that side, although I have a total of £7m per season for their FFP costs- my estimates are net of ie after that, plus the Covid Costs/claims including of course that £30m Covid Impairment.

Unadjusted, their losses would be:

2017/18- £30m loss 

2018/19- £15m loss

2019-20- £88m loss

2020/21- ??

2021/22-??

£123m loss albeit pre allowance, pre Covid. Upper Loss limit to 2021, £55.5m, 2019/20, 2020/21 averaged.

Us

2017/18- £25m loss

2018/19- £10m profit

2019/20- £10m loss

2020/21- £38.4m loss

£53.4m pre allowance, pre Covid allowance loss. £39m Upper Loss Limit, 2019/20 and 2020/21 averaged.

Lewis Baker, that's another Stoke purchased in January.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

38 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That's true. Perhaps I have underestimated that side, although I have a total of £7m per season for their FFP costs- my estimates are net of ie after that, plus the Covid Costs/claims including of course that £30m Covid Impairment.

Unadjusted, their losses would be:

2017/18- £30m loss 

2018/19- £15m loss

2019-20- £88m loss

2020/21- ??

2021/22-??

£123m loss albeit pre allowance, pre Covid. Upper Loss limit to 2021, £55.5m, 2019/20, 2020/21 averaged.

Us

2017/18- £25m loss

2018/19- £10m profit

2019/20- £10m loss

2020/21- £38.4m loss

£53.4m pre allowance, pre Covid allowance loss. £39m Upper Loss Limit, 2019/20 and 2020/21 averaged.

That £88m does stick out like a sore thumb doesn’t it.  Will be very interesting to see how the EFL treat the section of their return for Covid allowances.  Revenues down £20m on 18/19, I’m ok with in principle, but the impairment of players?  Just because it’s in the accounts doesn’t mean it’s allowed in the FFP return.  If it is, then can other clubs undertake a retrospective impairment?

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

That £88m does stick out like a sore thumb doesn’t it.  Will be very interesting to see how the EFL treat the section of their return for Covid allowances.  Revenues down £20m on 18/19, I’m ok with in principle, but the impairment of players?  Just because it’s in the accounts doesn’t mean it’s allowed in the FFP return.  If it is, then can other clubs undertake a retrospective impairment?

Agreed, as far as I can see no other club in the top 2 divisions wrote down- Everton aside- players and attributed it to Covid. Talking 2019/20.

There might have been some regular impairments but that's normal accounting treatment, through the FFP calcs. Attributing it to Covid is completely different.

Covid claims, I made it about £8m in regular Covid losses ie revenue, paying staff instead of utilising furlough etc. Fine- but that £30m is mad. Despite that it's still a £43m FFP loss in 2019/20 alone. 

One club in the Championship of course haven't submitted accounts for almost 3 years..they as part of the Agreed Decision are not to impair or revalue players except without permission of the EFL.

Them aside, if accepted in Stoke's case what's good for one...

Edited February 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed, as far as I can see no other club in the top 2 divisions wrote down- Everton aside- players and attributed it to Covid. Talking 2019/20.

There might have been some regular impairments but that's normal accounting treatment, through the FFP calcs. Attributing it to Covid is completely different.

Covid claims, I made it about £8m in regular Covid losses ie revenue, paying staff instead of utilising furlough etc. Fine- but that £30m is mad. Despite that it's still a £43m FFP loss in 2019/20 alone. 

One club in the Championship of course haven't submitted accounts for almost 3 years..they as part of the Agreed Decision are not to impair or revalue players except without permission of the EFL.

Them aside, if accepted in Stoke's case what's good for one...

Stoke have £15.5m in PPs in their yet to be published 20/21 accounts.  Will help a bit.

I do agree, I think they are the most likely to be sanctioned…hence them keen to back Richard Gould….but their probs are this season….whereas others is next season.

Edited February 8, 2022 by Davefevs

[Mr Popodopolous]

15 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Stoke have £15.5m in PPs in their yet to be published 20/21 accounts.  Will help a bit.

I do agree, I think they are the most likely to be sanctioned…hence them keen to back Richard Gould….but their probs are this season….whereas others is next season.

That can be complicated a bit by the fact that central awards and distributions are paid at certain times in the years though the aggregate amount (subject to Covid rebates) will be the same. Won't be evenly spread but might be £20m as opposed to £15.5m in Year 3, which helps in the short-term, as a few million less in 2019/20.

To 2022 seems like a definite issue for Stoke.

Even to 2021, they need to cut the P&S loss by a minimum of £37m.

2017/18- P&S Loss £23m

2018/19- P&S Loss £8m

2019/20- P&S Loss £43m

Halved it's an average of £21.5m.

Means they need an average of £3m season just gone, so not exceeding £6m in total.

Everton in the PL are in a similar position, according to some calcs I've seen online:

2017/18- P&S PROFIT £8m

2018/19- P&S Loss £88m

Means they need not to exceed a total, combined before halving P&S loss of £50m across 2019/20 and 2020/22.

2019/20- P&S Loss Well it might be £52m??

If the calculations I've seen have some accuracy, they need to transform that into a £2m P&S profit last season, but the PL don't seem that worked up about it. Loss limit in PL £105m rather than our £39m.

[Mr Popodopolous]

As for our League, like I posted a week or so ago- same for PL too tbh, no new accounts released since.

End of February, early March we should see...

Barnsley

Cardiff

Coventry

QPR

Stoke

Plus Birmingham Sports Holdings 6 month results to end of December 2021.

Sure everyone reading this thread knows but basically you don't need 9 months, not in the slightest when all said and done. Just clubs choose to utilise this at CH as you have 9 months after the end of Reporting Period.

Loopholes can extend it further.

Edited February 9, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Davefevs

[Mr Popodopolous]

Had a quick look. From an FFP/a P&S perspective no issue barring them going nuts, would arise until 2023/24 IMO.

The fact that their wage bill was as low as £20-21m as recently as 2019/20 is also fairly notable. If they don't go up this or next year then I assume some players will be sold, contracts not renewed etc.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Had a quick look. From an FFP/a P&S perspective no issue barring them going nuts, would arise until 2023/24 IMO.

The fact that their wage bill was as low as £20-21m as recently as 2019/20 is also fairly notable. If they don't go up this or next year then I assume some players will be sold, contracts not renewed etc.

pretty decent!

 

[Davefevs]

@Mr Popodopolousa Q for you.

Are Reading still working to a 3 year cycle, or are they on single year monitoring?  I’m never quite sure what happens.  Ta

@Beni71

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

@Mr Popodopolousa Q for you.

Are Reading still working to a 3 year cycle, or are they on single year monitoring?  I’m never quite sure what happens.  Ta

@Beni71

I believe the principle of reset kicks in after a breach.

What isn't made clear is whether that means it goes aggregate...if aggregate is equal to or above £26m then £13m it is this and next season or if it's a case of £13m, £13m...in season 1 you lose I dunno £6m FFP wise and in season 2 it's let's say £30m- I'm using the Renhe Sports Management as my basis here- therefore it's £6m + £13m=£20m target for this year and then £6m target for next season...but that way could throw up some weird outcomes and calculations in the present and near future. Think their P&S loss was about £6m in 2018/19...

If it's the latter it can be unwieldy- Birmingham's was easy as both 2016/17 and 2017/18 exceeded £13m in P&S losses hence £13m and £13m.

If they are not using the Renhe Sports Management as the basis for P&S it's easier to calculate but given it sits above Reading as the top company, would be a bit surprised if not. From the Agreed Decision it doesn't seem to delve into further detail- so it could be either £13m or £20m this season.

In the event that they do very well and get their P&S loss down to say £10m this season through wage cuts and player sales then they would be able to lose as much as £16m next season. I believe their P&S exclusions to be £5m per season so that'd be an accounting loss of say £21m.

Good summary below too.

https://star-reading.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/211124-Reading-FC-EFL-decision-STAR-assessment.pdf

Edited February 10, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

Ta, so to summarise.

Club X went over £39m…penalised appropriately.

The season after that cycle, their 2 “old” seasons are capped at £13m each, therefore “new year 1” has to be within £13m.  Cycle of “old season” (£13m), plus “new season 1&2” (£26m) - new seasons 1&2 could be £5m +£21m for example.  The next cycle is new seasons 1+2+3.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Ta, so to summarise.

Club X went over £39m…penalised appropriately.

The season after that cycle, their 2 “old” seasons are capped at £13m each, therefore “new year 1” has to be within £13m.  Cycle of “old season” (£13m), plus “new season 1&2” (£26m) - new seasons 1&2 could be £5m +£21m for example.  The next cycle is new seasons 1+2+3.

 

Feels like the Devil is/can be in the detail tbh subject to how the losses fell.

Illustrative example, Derby after accounts restated and their Agreed Decision, would have had Principle of Reset.

It'd be a fair assumption that both of 2015/16 and 2016/17 would have individually exceeded £13m. Easy. £13m target in 2018, £2m of £13m FFP losses.

Therefore for 2018/19 it must not exceed £24m, it did hence the £11.72m overspend.

A club then if this is right benefit further from reset are that £2m/£13m remains on the books but that £35.72m loss is again reset to £13m.

Therefore Derby's target combined average wise is about £24m- which again they breached albeit just a 3 point deduction for that one.

If my understanding is broadly correct, then to lose £14m x 3 say would be worse for a club than say £1m, £10m and £31m as the former gives a club the neat £13m target whereas the latter gives the club  £10m so that's an extra £3m if headroom for Year 3 and an automatic reset- both reset to Year 3, so it'd be...

(£14m- now £13m)

(£14m- now £13m)

Vs

(£10m- now £10m)

£31m- now £13m)

Of course there could be points for surging losses and other aggravating factors but as far as the basics go..far better to take a 2 year aggregate I think.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Shows the importance of the Stadium Sale too as by my rough calculations based on that Agreed Decision and principle of reset Derby would have breached by:

£7.76m to 2017- 6 points

£29m to 2018- 12 points

£20m+ to 2019- 12 points

£11-12m to 2021- 8 points

Max the EFL could have pushed for with it was 17 points, in a counterfactual without one well up to 44 points based on loss tariff!!

Still let's hope if it goes back to Derby for £20m then they perhaps look at the 3 years to 2018 in a new light.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Will actually revisit my numbers, got them wrong!

3 years to 2017- Aggregate £46.76m loss, unaffected by Stadium sale. 6 points. 

3 years to 2018- Aggregate £28.12m loss but includes IIRC £39m Stadium profit. Reset means £2.12/13m used up but add £39m and that's £67.12m 3 year loss or a £28.12m overspend- 12 point deduction.

3 years to 2019- Both prior seasons reset to £13m but by process of elimination, if nothing else changes then it's a £61.6m 3 year loss- 12 point deduction.

4 years what with years 3 and 4 averaged. Both prior seasons reset to £13m. Overspend was £1.96m but to add £10.88m to it, it's a £12.84m overspend. 8-9 point deduction.

38-39 points in total in that scenario instead of the maximum of 17 that could have been pushed for in reality..

[Mr Popodopolous]

Thought I would do a bit of a counterfactual in a world where Profits on fixed assets didn't count towards P&S. Indeed until 2015/16 and now from the present they did and do not- and with UEFA they never did!

I've gone on about Derby a lot but we do forget that several other clubs have done this.

Quote

Aston Villa

I will include as acceptable to a reasonable extent and certainly for the purposes of this bit, the HS2 Revenue. All the same I made it even including the stadium sale an aggregate 3 year loss of £32-33m to 2019.

£36,374,000 was the Profit on Villa Park- that would be in this more sane world, a P&S loss of £68-69m and a £30m overspend with a certain 12 point deduction. Or perhaps they would have been restricted in their expenditure quite severely in 2018/19- the season of promotion which would have impacted them on the pitch.

Quote

Birmingham

This would have been a breach that followed a breach.  Maybe an £8-8.7m overspend BUT remember they could have sold Che Adams by June 2019 and that would have filled the hole- as it was he was sold in July 2019 and the profit counted in 2019/20.  Loss with stadium sale- £8,444,000, without £25,629,000 but they had about £4m per season in P&S allowances. As it was, what with Covid extending the period and combining the average, getting that fee for Bellingham and so on they wouldn't have failed to 2021 IMO but without all of that, could have been very difficult to balance things. Theoretically though, a 2nd breach of between £8-9m probably. Although lop £1.25m per season off rent and that maybe a £6.75-7.7m breach.

Quote

Reading FC

Theirs is quite complex. Because in 2017/18, they had the club accounts and thereafter Renhe Sports Management limited. All the same, profit from Fixed Assets? Most definitely did!

To June 2016- roughly a P&S Loss of £10m.

To June 2017- About breakeven P&S wise- ie Accounting Loss-Deductions=P&S.

To June 2018- P&S Loss of £22,471,090.

Aggregate about £32-33m. To June 2016, it drops off.

To June 2019- In reality, a P&S loss of about £6.75m, but in this scenario you lop off the Profit on disposal of Fixed Assets- then you're looking at a P&S loss in 1 year of £36,683,458.

That's about £20m over limits and a 12 point deduction to June 2019 or beyond that, with perhaps more for surging losses- see Birmingham's 2018 case.

To June 2020, well it would have required player sale profits or cost cutting of- well of that £45m loss I estimate £5m in FFP costs and £2m in Covid costs...£25m or carried over to 2021 what with the combined average, well I dread to think.  Even in a scenario whereby they breakeven P&S wise in 2020/21, about £12m in improvement or so required just to stand still. As we know they breached by £18-19m to 2021 in reality so...Think it was £1.5m per year rent- lop that off too but wouldn't impact the overspend to 2019 or maybe 2021.

Quote

Sheffield Wednesday

Firstly, the stated reason that their deduction was halved was due to the intent to sell the stadium to rectify matters. Ridiculous as they botched it but that get out wouldn't have been there so surely a -12 or close to for the 3 years to 2018.

Rolling it forward wouldn't have worked either- well it would, but it would have been pointless from this angle as with all Fixed Asset Profits excluded from P&S. To 2019 therefore, even with the principle of reset they breach again based on things not taking a different path. Steve Bruce compensation appeared to have been about £6.47m but I make their P&S costs about £2.5m-3m per season. £16-16.5m P&S loss in the £13m target year...further 4 point deduction, maybe one back for improving losses in that season....

...Followed by perhaps more to the present- the period even with reset (again) to 2020 or as it turned out 2021, looks tricky...although lop £2.5m per year in rent off too. Their 2018 accounts were 14 months, maybe a 2-3 point deduction instead.

Would have been interesting to see tbh.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Jon Lansdown has been quoted as saying that up to seven clubs could fail P&S/FFP in addition to us, presumably over this and next season. A few candidates and for and against, albeit brief summaries.

Bournemouth

Their spending speaks for itself! Granted Parachute Payments, big player sales too but a pretty low regular income basis. Upper Loss Loss Limit to this season of £72m and Year 2 of Parachutes- they shouldn't fail to 2022 but promotion feels a must.

No promotion and it's a double whammy...Upper Loss Limit drops to £55.5m to 2023 and Parachute Payments fall to the 3rd and final year which is markedly lower than the 2nd. Drop of £15-25m is it?

Not yet seen 2020/21 accounts but we know they made a Profit on disposal of players of £50m last season.

Verdict: Only really likely to be in trouble if they blow promotion!

Cardiff

Probably fine to this year. Tight but fine, don't see them smashing the £55.5m Upper Limit to 2021 or 2022. Last year was the 2nd and final year of Parachute Payments.

Next year this Upper Loss Limit falls to £39m. Starting point a loss and a fall of £16.5m in allowances. Much might depend on Sala, because if they win their case at the CAS perhaps this provision can be written back to Profit and Loss THIS season, that's a £15-20m one off boost and could smooth things reasonably as far forward as the cycle ending in 2023/24. Still not seen 2021 accounts.

Verdict: Much may depend on Sala, I'm unsure about how it fits with the integrity of FFP allowing it in any year except the year of the Provision.

Fulham

Like Bournemouth, a £72m Upper Loss limit and unlike Bournemouth a wider income base and Year 1 not 2 of Parachute Payments. Otoh, they have certainly sold less players.

Of course, stay down and there is a two-fold queeze, firstly Year 2 lower than Year 1 of Parachute Payments, secondly the Upper Limit drops to £55.5m as opposed to £72m- could they be beginning with a bigger loss than now also? Still not seen 2021 accounts.

Verdict: Surely only in trouble if not promoted- and look at their form, 1 defeat in 20 League games! Bit of a cut above right now tbh.

Middlesbrough

I don't see them being in trouble to 2022, it's to next season where the problem arises IMO. Profit in 2018/19 drops off to be replaced by a loss.

Promotion is one way out, player sales another- Djed Spence linked with PL for £12m, apparently they value him at £15m. As a free transfer that is pure profit. They have quite a low amortisation bill plus some academy products who if push comes to shove maybe they sell- still not seen 2021 accounts. 

Verdict: After all Gibson has said and done, surely not?? They seem to have two exit routes as well.

Nottingham Forest

Much like Middlesbrough, although they always seen much closer to the line. Selling Matty Cash probably saved them to 2021, Carvalho potentially this year! Value Brennan Johnson at £20m, he might go if they stay down. Other academy product Joe Worrall often linked with PL, for 8 figures. No sign yet of 2021 accounts.

Verdict: Always close to the wire but promotion would see them okay. Alternatively player sales, although could Carvalho to Olympiakos be investigated if a large fee? Both clubs owned by same guy!

Reading

We already know they failed to 2021, likely cannot exceed £20-21m FFP losses to this year in principle of reset or it's another 6 points, and further charges if appropriate. Range of hazards that could see 6 become 12 just like that! No 2021 accounts yet.

Verdict: Very much an ongoing matter.

Stoke

Upper Loss limit to 2021 £55.5m, to this year £39m. Parachute Payments ended last year ie was 3rd and final year, very controversial £30m Impairment put down to Covid- not yet seen 2021 accounts but their fans seem quite relaxed. May or may not have 'sold' Fixed Assets late May 2021.

Verdict: Surely strong candidates. Have to be serious questions even if the £30m Impairment stands.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Davefevs]

My list was:

Forest

Boro

Stoke

Reading

Cardiff

Brum

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

I had considered Birmingham but I think for them, it's more likely in the 3 years to 2023/24...although their 6 month accounts to the end of December 2021 will give us a strong idea.

A sell on clause for Bellingham could help them greatly, either for FFP or extra spending power- unsure how much it is though.

[Club and Country]

Talksport and Simon Jordan talking about us and the points deduction at the moment…

[lenred]

6 minutes ago, Club and Country said:

Talksport and Simon Jordan talking about us and the points deduction at the moment…

I only caught the ass end of it after seeing your post.  He’s obviously keen for us to get a points deduction. Really doesn’t like us does he (or mores the point Lansdown!) 

Edited February 17, 2022 by lenred

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just looking around here and there- Stoke fans or the Stoke local press don't seem all that concerned, Cardiff fans haven't expressed much concern either about a potential overspend and penalties.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I might also add, on Stoke- plenty on us and I fear if we don't sell players then trouble is ahead.

I did some estimates on their Covid position- prior to Covid these remain IRL but subsequently with this news...

£88m LOSS

MINUS- £7M in allowable costs.

Minus- well it's £5m over 2 years, should we credit £5m to Year 1 and disregard Year 2 or spread it evenly over the term- let's say £2.5m.

Although you also disregard the £30m in Covid Impairment or can you add that back to the Profit and Loss??

One early and quick estimate is a rise to £48.5m in 2019/20 alone.

Upper Loss Limit seems to be £55.5m still...which added to £23m + £8m=needing no more than a £0.5m FFP loss in 2020/21. Might not have that quite right tbh...

How do we account for their £30m in claimed Covid amortisation Impairment, is the big question in light of these amendments.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous