Mr Popodopolous Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 hours ago, 054123 said: We’ve scored 36 goals this year, we scored 2 away from home yesterday! We are the exception to the XG algorithm as we take the majority of our good chances. Its the goals against that is the problem However, I'd suggest it has some validity both in the worsening defensive return, and in the diminishing return of goals to chances ratio. It's not perfect- nobody says it is perfect- but it is an interesting indicator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 xG is an attempt to quantify luck. As an example a penalty generally gets somewhere between 0.8 and 0.85. It's an easily definable incident, and one of the only truly repeatable events in football. 0.8xG doesn't mean you "should" score a penalty. It means that you can generally expect a penalty to be scored at around an 8 in 10 rate. Likewise take Weimann's goal against Huddersfield. Tight angle, on the half volley, very hard to score. In "shots on target" it gets a 1, the same as a penalty. In xG? It's probably less than 0.1. This is fair. If those were the only shots two teams had then you get an xG of 0.8 v 0.1. so team A would have won that game more often than not. Team B would have needed to be doubly lucky to win. Now of course the beautiful thing about football is that luck plays a massive part. Team B can and sometimes will win that game. xG merely seeks to quantify how lucky they were in doing so. @RedDave you can believe in it or not. You can be a "take it as I see it" kind of person and that's fine. All I'll say is that if you pay any attention to shots, shots on target, possession or anything other stat then xG is worth looking at. None of those stats should be read in isolation and xG is no different. Finally, I said just before Luton away that we were just a turn in luck away from a slide. Think I said I wouldn't be surprised if we lost 5 from the next 14. I was right, think we've lost 6. That "prediction" was entirely based on xG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said: I believe that is more reflective on how many goals they would be expected to score based on their all round game etc, as opposed to merely the chance. Happy to look again at it though! In other words, Diedhiou with that tap in outperformed his expected output by 0.5. Doesn't work so well in individual games but over a season, some sites show it for individual players- could be interesting. Understat (dunno if it uses the same model), shows Top Scorers in various Leagues and compares their 'real' vs their anticipated output. Could be useful as a predictor of near and medium term future returns. E361 has similar tables that he releases periodically. E361 is good for a free resource but he freely admits his xG numbers are more basic and not as sophisticated as others such as wyscout produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie BCFC Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 4 hours ago, Tomo said: A friend just sent me this. I know little about it but he is a massive stat man.... Cringeworthy reading the table but tells the story! Don’t think it does at all. It shows we are more clinical when we get the chances. Also striker isn’t the biggest issue, it’s the creativity from midfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Langford Red Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 If you look at the teams that are relegated about 95% of them have the worse goal difference look at previous seasons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 He's updated his scatter graphs. This only goes to reinforce what fans are seeing on the pitch. Defensively we are just making so much work for ourselves. We are actually ok at dealing with shots (cheers Bentley), note that we are only average in this regard, however good Bentley might be he is only human and can only be asked to do so much. Our major downfall is that we allow so many shots on goal. Only Charlton and Luton allow more shots on average than we do. The image below indicates this well. You want to be in the top left, up near Leeds, Brentford and Sheff Wed. We are nowhere near that quadrant. The defence needs some major work and for me that starts in midfield. Stop the shots. Looking at the attack makes for slightly happier reading, but it still shows our flaws. As I have said all season we are being saved by taking fewer, better shots. This means that we do well when we have our shooting boots on (ie against Huddersfield where we scored 5 from 8 shots on target, or Hull when we got 2 goals from just 3 shots on target), but we do badly when we either have on off day, or simply fail to create any good chances. Interestingly there are no real stand out performers in this category this season, although Leeds and West Brom are performing well for different reasons. Aggregate the two above images and you get this hot mess below. We are quite comfortably in the "Worse attack, worse defence" quarter. Great. Playing the percentages just isn't working. We are essentially being found out as our policy of allowing a large number of low quality shots whilst attempting to craft good opportunities and only shooting when we have a higher chance of scoring is failing to get us results when luck abandons us. Honestly unless something drastically changes in January there would be little surprise in us finishing well down the table, even bottom half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
petehinton Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Not hugely surprising sadly. Also nowhere high in any table for forward passes. Just confirms the type of football we’ve seen over the last few months, at home especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfOfWestStreet Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I can't pretend I have the brain power to digest a lot of these stats, tables and algorithms. But what I do understand is the general theme from the numbers is we're not very good, and that backs up what I've seen with my own eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolfOfWestStreet Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, petehinton said: Not hugely surprising sadly. Also nowhere high in any table for forward passes. Just confirms the type of football we’ve seen over the last few months, at home especially Few months, change that to a few years ... everything about watching Bristol City play at Ashton Gate feels like a waste of time, money and energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, WolfOfWestStreet said: I can't pretend I have the brain power to digest a lot of these stats, tables and algorithms. But what I do understand is the general theme from the numbers is we're not very good, and that backs up what I've seen with my own eyes. Yeh the general theme is that it supports what you're seeing. Sometimes it doesn't do this. The run of wins last season, and the run of no defeats earlier this season were great examples. During both runs the kind of stats discussed here indicated that we weren't actually playing blinding football, despite getting great results. This is why I value these stats. They keep you grounded when results are good and can provide hope when it's going badly. It also shows that the issues are deeper than a single player. People clamour for Eliasson to start. Now he's a great player but these stats show that he won't be the silver bullet to solve all of the issues this squad has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CotswoldRed Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 On 27/12/2019 at 09:35, Tomo said: A friend just sent me this. I know little about it but he is a massive stat man.... Cringeworthy reading the table but tells the story! My take on this is... if you don't take your chances you'll plummet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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