Our Finances...a bit of a dive into where we are at, what we have done so far and what may- or may not- be possible this season!

[Mr Popodopolous]

My last post, my big one was a bit long. I'll put it succinctly.

All things being equal with equity, profit/loss and the like- in season one:

Team A- £57-62m more Headroom.

Team B- £79-84m more Headroom.

 Clearly the variables can differ vastly but that's as a starting point.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Had a spare 5 mins so thought I'd add a little bit more- focusing purely on US, using the Bristol City Holdings as my point of reference. One key stat:

Loss Excluding Player Trading

Quote

To 31st May 2016

£12,450,077

To 31st May 2017

£13.384.214

To 31st May 2018

£17,408.179

To 31st May 2019

£18,058.814

If we look at the last 3 in particular- and we assume that it is indeed £3m per season excluded in allowable costs.

That's FFP figures of £9m to subtract from the Headline loss- or in this instance the one Excluding Player Trading.

Total Loss BEFORE Player Trading

£48,851,207

Then you knock off the estimated £3m per year allowables- well it's an overspend of £851,207. Which in theory can lead to up to a 3 point deduction and a little more oversight. Sum that size is easily rectified and may not even get punished, but that is before we strengthen- or sell tbh.

That's before we sign or sell anyone of course- but @Clutton Caveman has accused us of doing it on the cheap- again interested in your alternative business plan.

What would you do differently?

You can't wish away FFP, you can't wish away Parachute Payments, nor can you wish away in-season and ongoing oversight and monitoring that utilises Past, Present and Future Projected Info!

Not so bad in the 3 years to 31st May 2018:

£43,242,470 MINUS £9m

£34,242,470.

Of course, less signings=less amortisation and wage costs. Still think we may be hemmed in this season.

My first suggestion from a Revenue POV would be for SL to be able to use his companies- at FAIR value- to sponsor stands, training ground, anything that moves basically- could make £1-5m more per season. Provided of course that it isn't already accounted for but naming rights to each stand, Training Ground, Ashton Gate for 3.

[Mr Popodopolous]

An alternative approach might be:

Year 1- Squad as it is, loanees expire.

We made barely any profit on Trading that year- so it's Operating Loss AFTER Player Trading.

2015/16- Loss Before Player Trading.

£12,450,077

PLUS Player Trading.

£1,903,284

That loss by this stage is £14,353,361.

Add in.

Net Loss on Financial Liabilities at Fair Value through profit and loss account- £230,531

And

Interest Payable and similar charges- £345,265.

Loss for the Year- £14,929,157- lop £3m off for FFP allowables and we're not far off the limit when it comes to our underlying limit for that season- about £1,072,000 in terms of extra Headroom from what we did.

Our costs have been rising faster than Revenue- and differentials between- problem when your starting point is an £11.9m FFP loss going into 2016/17!

[Mr Popodopolous]

Might make a little bit of an update on this, with January in mind.

I don't think we're under a soft embargo but might be walking the line a bit- voluntarily or with a joint arrangement, albeit that stops short of hard restrictions- see Birmingham 2 years ago, see Reading with Richards and potentially any number of clubs this season.

I have a feeling though that my prior concerns about an out and out soft embargo, with hard wage limits on new contract offers might be misplaced. The only way we will know for sure is when we get a) The club and b) If applicable, the consolidated accounts for last season released- then we can extrapolate and work it out.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Well okay the audited accounts for 2.5/3 years certainly didn't indicate a soft embargo but recalling loanees- free agent- could have been walking the line a bit even if voluntarily.

Because remember, that £10m loss- was in reality £35m. It's complicated by this season being combinbed with last- remember T=This and last year whereas pre Covid it would just have been this year.

While T-1 would ordinarily be 2019/20, it might be 2018/19 and T-2 goes back a year as well- ie 2017/18 rather than 2018/19.

Whether it's T and T-1, T-2 and T-3 or just a case of T=T + T-1/2, T-1 and T-2 I'm not entirely sure.

2017-18= First in this process. £25m LOSS- Estimated allowable costs of £5m so you lop that off- £20m loss for P&S purposes.

2018/19- Second in this process. £10m PROFIT- Estimated allowable costs of £5m so you lop that off- £15m PROFIT for P&S purposes.

So far, so simple- £5m out of £39m used up for P&S purposes. In two normal seasons.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Well what is T? T=This and last season- or that should be a pretty accurate Projection for this + The Actual result for last and then you halve it- for simplicity purposes I'll assume that Allowable Costs remain at £5m for each.

T so far= £10m LOSS - £5m in allowables. This along with this seasons is halved after the two were aggregated.

I make it an average P&S Loss of £34m over this and last season after aggregation and halving.

I suspect an AGGREGATE accounting loss of £78m over this and last season. Aggregated- This + Last/2.

This translates as an average accounting loss of £39m- well we lost £10m last season so it's £68m last season. So why didn't we roll the dice for Hughton, Howe or whoever.

Well- a few key reasons.

1. That £10m loss was inclusive of £25m in Player Sale Profits- the underlying figure was therefore £35m if we're assuming inbound and no sale- for P&S it would have been £30m based on best estimates of allowable costs etc.
2. No gate receipts! No corporate revenue- yet a fairly high cost base, albeit one that will fall. Do we know if we have PAYE outstanding as well, or when Player Wage Deferrals- remember last year some were done at a lot of clubs including us, do we know when they get paid? When they fall due- how it would appear in the accounts?
3. Do we know exactly what Covid Costs excluded for FFP would entail? We have an idea- cost of Sanitising, Coast of Testing but to what extent does it factor in loss of Gate Receipts.
4. Do we know what % of ST Holders rolled over? I remember on the Derby forum it being suggested that at quite a lot of clubs future ticketing credits were not uncommon- unsure if that affects cash flow, Revenue- ie P&L- or both.
5. That said we- assuming the Revenue goes to AGL and Bristol City Holdings- seem to have been more inventive than many. Drive Through Panto, Opening up Bar, showing game in Bar during that ludicrous time it wouldn't have been allowed to have been viewed in the Stand- Pitchside dining- to name a few we've been inventive. That could have offset some of the other.
6. I suppose the non events and the non deployment of Matchday Staff would have saved some Costs too. Goes for all clubs of course, though not so many have quite the Commercial Income that we do

If this rollover system continues, we could hold a potentially one-time only advantage over a fair few clubs- because the £10m Profit plus £5m in Costs would be our new starting points and the Two Covid seasons would be aggregated and halved. We have no certainty how the system will proceed but that way seems fair to me. We could not utilise our £10m Profit Starting Point in full due to the Rollup of this and last season, and if it reverts back to normal we'll also not be able to utilise it in full as the new bit will be the £10m loss in 2019/20 heading into 2021/22. Not many made a profit in 2018/19 at all I believe, though there are two we can't properly estimate due to failure to release accounts for that particular season.