Marina's Rolls Royce Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 A couple of weeks back I seemed to confuse a couple of posters when I said that our very own Deano had managed a similar record to most people's first choice of 'Hughto'. I was wrong- it's better than CH and virtually any other City Manager in modern times. According to latest The Sack Race stats, Hughto's record at Forest is W7 D7 L9- a 30.4% win rate although I don't think that includes the latest losses v Luton and Watford. Deano's record here was W18 D5 L18 -a 43.9% win rate. Lee Johnson managed a win rate of 39.4% during his entire tenure. Steve Cotterill was 45.7% along with a title and a cup- our best Manager since Joe Jordan at 50.7% and promotion. Gary Johnson 40.2% with promotion and then a play off final. Derek McInnes on 27% and Sean O'Driscoll at 25%. Keith Millen at 31.6% Of course, Forest are a "basket case" I hear you scream as your spleen explodes. Well...maybe yet whilst we may be far superior off the pitch, I think it's fair to say we are a near basket case on it. This cannot be blamed entirely on Deano whose major signings - Williams, Martin, Mawson, Brunt, Sessegnon have hardly played due to injury with two leaving the club as a result. Indeed, his 43.9% win rate was achieved with half the first team squad out through injury. I'm pleased ( I think) that we have Nige at the Gate but before Dean Holden is committed to the dustbin of rubbish ex-City Managers- he was actually not half bad when compared to most over the past 35 years or so. Good bloke, did pretty well overall with all things considered. Of course stats can just be absolute rubbish with no bearing on reality - just ask @Davefevs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlands Robin Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 That last point regarding stats is key here. While Deano won games early in his tenure, more recently the results and the performances have been poor verging on terrible. Look how few games we've drawn this season. A draw doesn't lift the win percentage but at least we get a point out of it. It would be more interesting to flip the stat and compare Hughton and Deanos loss percentages this season: Hughton - 39% Deano - 53% There's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 I dont understand the relevance of win rate in football. Holden can put it on his CV but the reality is due to drawing very few, his win rate was magnified but his points rate was well under expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prinny Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 Well Hughton took a winless team from 22nd to 17th after coming in after the transfer window to a completely new and unstable club. Holden took a team from 12th to 14th despite having been here years and with an entire off season to make changes and implement his plans. Hughton has 40 points from 31 games. Holden 39 from 30, with all the in built advantages. One win % stat is not really indicative of the overall picture. Context matters. Where were we going under Holden? Was it getting better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveybadger Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 Points. That’s it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said: I dont understand the relevance of win rate in football. Holden can put it on his CV but the reality is due to drawing very few, his win rate was magnified but his points rate was well under expectations Thank you. Win rate ? At least use points per (league) game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmNick Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 Hmm so if you look at one stat in isolation he's our second best manager in what, 25 years? Great analysis. If a player comes on late in a game and scores are you excited he's on track for 200 goals in a season too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phileas Fogg Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 37 minutes ago, Davefevs said: Thank you. Win rate ? At least use points per (league) game. Agreed. Win rate alone doesn’t factor in the context. The key context with Hughton is it’s not his squad, whereas Holden was allowed lots of signings. It doesn’t factor in any other stats (including those damning XG stats a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Dante Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 Well. That settles it and everything I saw with my own eyes was wrong. On the basis of him being a nice bloke, and having that win percentage, I expect “Deano” to immediately rock up at a top club at this level at least. Except he won’t. Because, despite that stat, he was garbage. We lucked into most of our wins, didn’t try and attack for games on end and had the most tactically naive setup I think I’ve seen at the club. Paint him positive all you like. He was a man who should never have been given the job, wouldn’t have been given it at any other club at this level or the level below at least, and was spectacularly inept at it. Do you know the only other club he was in the betting for, and even then not a favourite? Southend. That’s his level. At best. Like the man all you like, I’ve never met him so work on ability only. And on ability only, this pathetic excuses and eulogising of “Deano” is embarrassing and shows up some posters complete lack of football knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swede Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 With those statistics you forgot to include the columns that show how many shots on target we had in the last of those "Johnson" losing runs or how many corners we won. I say "Johnson" losing runs because Deano was a big part of those losing runs under the previous incumbent and loved them so much so he embarked on his own version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
And Its Smith Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 I think lockdown is getting to a lot of people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina's Rolls Royce Posted March 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 7 hours ago, Prinny said: Well Hughton took a winless team from 22nd to 17th after coming in after the transfer window to a completely new and unstable club. Holden took a team from 12th to 14th despite having been here years and with an entire off season to make changes and implement his plans. Hughton has 40 points from 31 games. Holden 39 from 30, with all the in built advantages. One win % stat is not really indicative of the overall picture. Context matters. Where were we going under Holden? Was it getting better? Yep - fair point. Take a look at Gary's first 10 games. Context is everything but heyho- just do another poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina's Rolls Royce Posted March 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 7 hours ago, Davefevs said: Thank you. Win rate ? At least use points per (league) game. Yes Dave- you probably have access to intel which I don't ( and its not a big enough deal for me to calculate)so it would be really interesting to see the position of the Managers I mention- but the bottom line is this: W18 D5 L18 It's not a bad record compared to other Managers at City and better than Hughton which was the initial point. There has been little recognition that Dean Holden did a pretty decent job in incredibly difficult circumstances. And just out of interest- when should NP be judged as a potential long term Manager? Is it when he buys his own players ( which clearly DH had limited scope to do) or can it be after he's completed this season? And as a general question for anyone- What does NP have to achieve this season to warrant a long term contract and an associated transfer budget ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prinny Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said: Yep - fair point. Take a look at Gary's first 10 games. Gary came in mid season and he didn't assemble the squad. Context is everything but heyho- just do another poll. I'm not sure about the weird poll comment? I guess you're referring me adding polls to the match day thread? I'm not sure I've done it too many times outside of that. Ok so, what's the evidence that it would get better under Holden? Was it his signings? His talent ID of the players already here? The good performances and just "unlucky" results? His track record in management? Interestingly for me, under Dean, Gary and Nigel we won the first couple with them in charge, and then the team descended to where it really was. The difference is GJ sorted it out while Holden made it worse, we'll see with Pearson. Why is win % a fascination to you? Here's the loss percentage. If win % matters then loss % should matter equally right? Wilson 28.3 Tinnion 27.9 G Johnson 31.0 Coppell 100! Millen 42.0 (includes caretaker spells) McInnes 50.8 O'Driscoll 45.5 Cotterill 24.1 L Johnson 36.4 Holden 43.9 Hughton 36.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 49 minutes ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said: Yes Dave- you probably have access to intel which I don't ( and its not a big enough deal for me to calculate)so it would be really interesting to see the position of the Managers I mention- but the bottom line is this: W18 D5 L18 It's not a bad record compared to other Managers at City and better than Hughton which was the initial point. There has been little recognition that Dean Holden did a pretty decent job in incredibly difficult circumstances. And just out of interest- when should NP be judged as a potential long term Manager? Is it when he buys his own players ( which clearly DH had limited scope to do) or can it be after he's completed this season? And as a general question for anyone- What does NP have to achieve this season to warrant a long term contract and an associated transfer budget ? Yep, Holden didn’t do too bad results wise. I really liked his first 10-12 games (inc caretaker), but he went against all the good things he introduced in those games when the going got tough. Shame, I wanted him to do well. I wasn’t arguing that. I just hate win rate, that’s all. It only takes into account 1/3rd of the available results. In Holden’s case had he won 23 lost 23 in a season and got 69 points, and a 50% win rate, I’d rather he won 20, drew 10, lost 16, and got 70 points with a lesser win rate if that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BS4 on Tour... Posted March 7, 2021 Report Share Posted March 7, 2021 9 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said: A couple of weeks back I seemed to confuse a couple of posters when I said that our very own Deano had managed a similar record to most people's first choice of 'Hughto'. I was wrong- it's better than CH and virtually any other City Manager in modern times. According to latest The Sack Race stats, Hughto's record at Forest is W7 D7 L9 ... If you’re gonna start a thread with big, bold facts you could at least check they are correct - you think Chris Hughton has been in charge for 23 Nottm Forest games?! Really?! And just to gauge your thoughts - given their respective achievements and track records as managers - who do you think is the better bet, Hughton or Holden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fammyfan Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 Win rate is not the best stat, points per game would give a stronger indication of the level of success achieved. Though it was the level of performance that cost Deano his job, we weren’t just losing, there was no sign of anything positive which was the main concern. Particularly when he said from the start that he wanted to play attacking and exciting football, this didn’t happen. I had lost faith that Deano could turn it around because we were playing poor and Deano had no past record to demonstrate his capability to turn it around. Whereas, with NP, the performances have been much stronger than they were with Deano and his proven track record demonstrates his ability and shows that he can be trusted to get things right. Deano was unlucky, with the injuries suffered but an objective of play offs was always an expectation and the manner in which he was appointed was wrong. After a long and thorough recruitment process which led to the appointment of the assistant manager, fans were always going to turn quickly and easily when things went wrong. I actually think that Deano could do a management job somewhere, certainly those stats show that Deano can pick up victories. I hope to see him be given an opportunity elsewhere at a level which suits him with his current level of experience as the manager/head coach, he’s not currently ready for the championship coming up against some of the best managers in the country. There’s no shame in that. I hope to see him appointed at a league one/league two club, wish him all the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Son of Fred Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 7 hours ago, Prinny said: Ok so, what's the evidence that it would get better under Holden? Was it his signings? His talent ID of the players already here? The good performances and just "unlucky" results? His track record in management? Interestingly for me, under Dean, Gary and Nigel we won the first couple with them in charge, and then the team descended to where it really was. The difference is GJ sorted it out while Holden made it worse, we'll see with Pearson. Why is win % a fascination to you? Here's the loss percentage. If win % matters then loss % should matter equally right? Wilson 28.3 Tinnion 27.9 G Johnson 31.0 Coppell 100! Millen 42.0 (includes caretaker spells) McInnes 50.8 O'Driscoll 45.5 Cotterill 24.1 L Johnson 36.4 Holden 43.9 Hughton 36.4 So... The only 'worse are McWinless & O'Dismal...... Thank you Prinny..............enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusX Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 16 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said: A couple of weeks back I seemed to confuse a couple of posters when I said that our very own Deano had managed a similar record to most people's first choice of 'Hughto'. I was wrong- it's better than CH and virtually any other City Manager in modern times. According to latest The Sack Race stats, Hughto's record at Forest is W7 D7 L9- a 30.4% win rate although I don't think that includes the latest losses v Luton and Watford. Deano's record here was W18 D5 L18 -a 43.9% win rate. Lee Johnson managed a win rate of 39.4% during his entire tenure. Steve Cotterill was 45.7% along with a title and a cup- our best Manager since Joe Jordan at 50.7% and promotion. Gary Johnson 40.2% with promotion and then a play off final. Derek McInnes on 27% and Sean O'Driscoll at 25%. Keith Millen at 31.6% Of course, Forest are a "basket case" I hear you scream as your spleen explodes. Well...maybe yet whilst we may be far superior off the pitch, I think it's fair to say we are a near basket case on it. This cannot be blamed entirely on Deano whose major signings - Williams, Martin, Mawson, Brunt, Sessegnon have hardly played due to injury with two leaving the club as a result. Indeed, his 43.9% win rate was achieved with half the first team squad out through injury. I'm pleased ( I think) that we have Nige at the Gate but before Dean Holden is committed to the dustbin of rubbish ex-City Managers- he was actually not half bad when compared to most over the past 35 years or so. Good bloke, did pretty well overall with all things considered. Of course stats can just be absolute rubbish with no bearing on reality - just ask @Davefevs Yep this sums it up nicely. Stats dont tell you what our eyes saw, that was some of the worst football ever played by this club. LJ's win rate would probably be better if he went when most people wanted him to. SC's may have been worse if he'd stayed longer. You can't really judge a manager by win percentage, especially when most of those wins came early in his tenure and then spiralled downhill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusX Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 9 hours ago, Marina's Rolls Royce said: Yes Dave- you probably have access to intel which I don't ( and its not a big enough deal for me to calculate)so it would be really interesting to see the position of the Managers I mention- but the bottom line is this: W18 D5 L18 It's not a bad record compared to other Managers at City and better than Hughton which was the initial point. There has been little recognition that Dean Holden did a pretty decent job in incredibly difficult circumstances. And just out of interest- when should NP be judged as a potential long term Manager? Is it when he buys his own players ( which clearly DH had limited scope to do) or can it be after he's completed this season? And as a general question for anyone- What does NP have to achieve this season to warrant a long term contract and an associated transfer budget ? Win record isn't the bottom line. Performances were absolutely dreadful or did you not watch the games? I was giving DH some slack initially due to the injuries, but in the later games he had a pretty strong starting 11, certainly a stronger squad than Pearson currently has. He did alright initially but anything was better than where we were with LJ. He stopped a rot. He started the season well results wise, but as many will tell you the warning signs were there, the performances were hardly convincing. Pearson doesn't have to achieve anything this season for me. He's got pedigree and had success at several places through his career. He'll be judged based on where we are at Christmas for me, a full transfer window and pre-season (which Dean was unlucky not to get, but he knew that when taking the job) and half a season to see what he can do. This season's a write off now, blood some youth and work on an "identity" and playing style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina's Rolls Royce Posted March 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 10 hours ago, BS4 on Tour... said: If you’re gonna start a thread with big, bold facts you could at least check they are correct - you think Chris Hughton has been in charge for 23 Nottm Forest games?! Really?! And just to gauge your thoughts - given their respective achievements and track records as managers - who do you think is the better bet, Hughton or Holden? you're absolutely right- I looked at The Sack Race stats and they are not up to date. The are correct on former tenures though. According to Wikki- another hugely reliable source CH record is W11 D10 L12 and 33.3%. I find it odd that you query facts on OTIB as these rarely seem to get in the way of an opinion. Indeed, as you know, over 67.8% of all facts on OTIB are entirely made up on the spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 @Marina's Rolls Royce You are also not building in sample size bias. Sam Allardyce had a win record as England manager of 100%. Is he the best manager England have ever had? Of course not, but he's got the best win rate because he managed a single game, and won it. Dean Holden managed Bristol City for 35 league games, 5 as caretaker, and 30 as full manager. Chris Hughton has, I believe, managed Forest for 31 league games (he was appointed on 6 October 2020 after Forest had lost their first 4 games of the season). In comparison Lee Johnson managed Bristol City for somewhere in the region of 200 league games. What that means is that single loss or win for Holden or Hughton will have a far larger impact on their win % than a single loss or win for Johnson. Each game that each manager overseas produces ever-diminishing returns when viewed through the limited prism of win rate. You have to look at other stats. Points per league game is a good one to start with, points per league game versus expected points (via xG) might also be interesting. We could also weight games for difficulty, so points gained v sides above and below. I'm not expecting you to do that work, but just acknowledge the limitations of the statistical tool that you are using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTone Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 23 hours ago, IAmNick said: Hmm so if you look at one stat in isolation he's our second best manager in what, 25 years? Great analysis. If a player comes on late in a game and scores are you excited he's on track for 200 goals in a season too? That's the problem with looking at stats all the time. A bit like using drones in training to tell you absolutely bugger all. Use them in a game is a slightly different scenario. People try and complicate the game too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PHILINFRANCE Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 48 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: @Marina's Rolls Royce You are also not building in sample size bias. Sam Allardyce had a win record as England manager of 100%. Is he the best manager England have ever had? Of course not, but he's got the best win rate because he managed a single game, and won it. Dean Holden managed Bristol City for 35 league games, 5 as caretaker, and 30 as full manager. Chris Hughton has, I believe, managed Forest for 31 league games (he was appointed on 6 October 2020 after Forest had lost their first 4 games of the season). In comparison Lee Johnson managed Bristol City for somewhere in the region of 200 league games. What that means is that single loss or win for Holden or Hughton will have a far larger impact on their win % than a single loss or win for Johnson. Each game that each manager overseas produces ever-diminishing returns when viewed through the limited prism of win rate. You have to look at other stats. Points per league game is a good one to start with, points per league game versus expected points (via xG) might also be interesting. We could also weight games for difficulty, so points gained v sides above and below. I'm not expecting you to do that work, but just acknowledge the limitations of the statistical tool that you are using. I agree, although the same also applies to English games . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 On 07/03/2021 at 09:21, steveybadger said: Points. That’s it. Measuring by points alone has exactly the same issues as measuring by wins alone. You are merely replacing the binary 1 and 0 for a win or loss with a 3 and a 0. On 07/03/2021 at 09:22, Davefevs said: Thank you. Win rate ? At least use points per (league) game. And even this still suffers from small sample bias. Again take Allardyce, give him 3 points for that sole win as England boss. Bang, Allardyce has a magnificent 3 points per game. He's a genius of international football. Of course he isn't, he just has such a small sample size as to make the statistic meaningless. Again with Holden, had he won his 36th league game, he would have gone from 1.34 ppg to 1.38 ppg. Johnson* had a full record of P217 W84 D54 L79, 306 points across 217 games, ppg of 1.410. Had he won his 218th game he'd have gone to 1.417 ppg. So an extra win for Holden gives him an extra 0.04, but the same increase for Johnson elicits only an extra 0.007. Hardly a fair way to compare. I'm not accomplished enough as a statistician to know how we should correct for this, so I do it by looking at underlying stats like shots for/against, xG, possession etc. In all those metrics Holden made us worse. Under Holden our shots per game dropped by about 20% compared to Johnson's last season. Our xG in Johnson's final games was about 1.27, Holden managed just 1.0 across his 35 matches**. I won't set everything out, but my conclusion is that Holden was a worse manager of Bristol City than Johnson was. *I don't have Johnson's full, league only, record to hand, I'm using wikipedia's record of his entire tenure, which includes cup games. However, for illustrative purposes the cup games won't have much impact. **This also suffers from the same small sample size bias as the other stats, so it is also a limited comparative tool. 5 minutes ago, PHILINFRANCE said: I agree, although the same also applies to English games . Yeh, I missed an "a" in the previous sentence as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Measuring by points alone has exactly the same issues as measuring by wins alone. You are merely replacing the binary 1 and 0 for a win or loss with a 3 and a 0. And even this still suffers from small sample bias. Again take Allardyce, give him 3 points for that sole win as England boss. Bang, Allardyce has a magnificent 3 points per game. He's a genius of international football. Of course he isn't, he just has such a small sample size as to make the statistic meaningless. Again with Holden, had he won his 36th league game, he would have gone from 1.34 ppg to 1.38 ppg. Johnson* had a full record of P217 W84 D54 L79, 306 points across 217 games, ppg of 1.410. Had he won his 218th game he'd have gone to 1.417 ppg. So an extra win for Holden gives him an extra 0.04, but the same increase for Johnson elicits only an extra 0.007. Hardly a fair way to compare. I'm not accomplished enough as a statistician to know how we should correct for this, so I do it by looking at underlying stats like shots for/against, xG, possession etc. In all those metrics Holden made us worse. Under Holden our shots per game dropped by about 20% compared to Johnson's last season. Our xG in Johnson's final games was about 1.27, Holden managed just 1.0 across his 35 matches**. I won't set everything out, but my conclusion is that Holden was a worse manager of Bristol City than Johnson was. *I don't have Johnson's full, league only, record to hand, I'm using wikipedia's record of his entire tenure, which includes cup games. However, for illustrative purposes the cup games won't have much impact. **This also suffers from the same small sample size bias as the other stats, so it is also a limited comparative tool. Yeh, I missed an "a" in the previous sentence as well. Stop being so pure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 Just now, Davefevs said: Stop being so pure After Saturday's performance art piece I've fully given up on the real football now. I'm playing the rest of the season on paper and in spreadsheets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TedsHeadIs Red Posted March 8, 2021 Report Share Posted March 8, 2021 As some wise guy once said, “There are lies, damned lies and statistics”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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