City’s Season So Far - in stats

[Davefevs]

@ExiledAjax you might like these.  Not surprising we are 16th!

 

 

[ExiledAjax]

It's 6:41am here @Davefevs. I'll need a coffee before I look in detail.

But one thing jumps out at me. 3rd from "Top" for xGA per shot against. I had my suspicions we would be bad in that respect but interesting to see that here. Maybe we give O’Leary and Bents some slack on the save % side if things?

Edited January 27, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Marina's Rolls Royce]

I have studied these stats very carefully and using my Bletchley Park enigma decipher machine and the help of @BigTone- I have the following conclusion:

Shit season but slightly less shit than last season and should stay up but must do better. 

[Davefevs]

Bravo MMR

[Rossi the Robin]

Last 6-10 games should see us higher up on many of them 

[DaveF]

On 27/01/2022 at 11:27, Davefevs said:

@ExiledAjax you might like these.  Not surprising we are 16th!

 

 

Have you stolen these stats from Swansea per chance David?

[Davefevs]

4 minutes ago, DaveF said:

Have you stolen these stats from Swansea per chance David?

Yep, Swans Analytics on Twitter.  Very sound guy, works with the MKRT Insights guys.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

Yep, Swans Analytics on Twitter.  Very sound guy, works with the MKRT Insights guys.

Fevs when are these taken from? Just looking at the goals columns and it looks like these might be from just after the Millwall game? Goals conceded per 90 is quoted as 1.39. 1.39*90 = 38.92. Round up to whole goals and it's 39 - which is what we had conceded after Millwall. Open play goals is 23, goals from corners is 2 so that is 25 scored. After Millwall we had scored 30 goals...is that about right? 5 penalties/FKs/other goals that aren't from open play or corners? Either way, these definitely aren't from straight after the Luton game.

I've got some slightly different figures as well, given I source from whoscored? for shot numbers and then infogol, experimental361, FotMob and FootyStats for xG.

Not sure it all matters though, these stats basically back up my overriding theory of this season - that our improvement in attack has come at the expense of, or at least a lack of improvement in, defensive sturdiness.

We take more shots, but they're of slightly lower quality, but not to such a degree that we score fewer goals - currently we are on 1.29 goals per game, a 29% improvement on last season's overall average of exactly 1 goal per game. xG reflects that as last season we averaged a truly turgid 0.89 xG per game, compare that to this season's 1.24 per game and you'd think we'd turned into Hungary in the 60's. I like this though, I've said before that rather than aim for a set number of goals (90 goals ffs, that was a crackpot statement wasn't it!) or wins our aim should be to average 15 shots per game, 5 of which are on target. Currently we are on 10.39 and 3.54 respectively. Some way to go, but huge improvement over the dire 7.83 and 2.76 figures from last season.

xGA is 1.67 per game this season, from an average of 14.29 shots allowed, 4.64 on target. Last season we ended with 14.48 shots allowed, 4.26 on target, and xGA of 1.58. So pretty similar numbers there really. The biggest difference defensively is that we're conceding 1.75 per game this season, when last season, despite facing a similar level of attacking effectiveness, we managed to keep that down to 1.48 across the season. Essentially whilst we allow slightly fewer shots against us, they are better shots, we're seeing a little less in the way of speculative shots on our goal, and instead we are allowing our opponents to create better chances. Thus xGA has risen despite our total shots against falling.

I'm not as good on the passing and pressing stuff, and possession is a gumpf stat.

Edited January 28, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Rossi the Robin said:

Last 6-10 games should see us higher up on many of them 

I actually doubt that somewhat. I don't have the exact tables to compare us but just looking at our own numbers there's actually not much improvement in terms of our play when measured by the stats.*

If you take the first 18 games and the last 10 (Stoke through Luton) and compare then you see an improvement in some aspects (for example goals scored) but we're going backwards in others (for example goals conceded). Generally our statistical output has been pretty consistent this season so bar other teams having wild fluctuations we're unlikely to be in a wildly different place over the past 10 games. We might go up in some of those tables, but we'd be going the other way in others. Ultimately our average position would likely be about the same - hence we were 18th after Stoke, and are 16th now.

One example is that the average difference between our xG and our opponents was -0.44 for the first 18 games. It is -0.38 over the past 10 - a pretty small difference.

Even just looking at the ultimate derivative stat - points - there's not much in it. From the first 18 games we got 20 points - 1.11 per game, form the last 10 we've scored 13 - 1.3 per game. An improvement yes, but not a revolution. Our season aggregate is obviously between those two values at 1.18 points per game.

*This is not to say we have not improved at all. I have enjoyed some of our more recent performances far more than earlier games, but in this thread we're chatting numbers so that is by the by.

Edited January 28, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Davefevs]

They are from Swans Analytics, think 13th Jan.