Lack of Penalty Decisions

[spudski]

So given the statistics and the probability of it happening...which are alarming glaring as almost impossible...what reason do you think?

Or is it so ****** up you can't reason it like me?

[BCFCGav]

7 minutes ago, spudski said:

So given the statistics and the probability of it happening...which are alarming glaring as almost impossible...what reason do you think?

Or is it so ****** up you can't reason it like me?

That’s what I’ve been wrestling with. I have a decent grasp of stats from uni and they’re screaming ‘not a coincidence’, especially the 8.5 standard deviations from the mean thing pointed out on Twitter (though I admit I’ve not broken those numbers down for myself, but the maths looked solid at a glance). 
 

That just leaves us with it’s actually a fix, which we all shout about from the stands in anger but I can’t believe is actually true. So it must just be a coincidence of absolutely astronomical proportions? Both ‘solutions’ just seem ridiculous. Really is a bizarre little saga this.

Edit: this reads a bit know-it-all. I’m decent with numbers but thick in many other areas 

Edited August 19, 2022 by BCFCGav

[mozo]

25 minutes ago, spudski said:

So given the statistics and the probability of it happening...which are alarming glaring as almost impossible...what reason do you think?

Or is it so ****** up you can't reason it like me?

Ciderphobes 

[downendcity]

48 minutes ago, spudski said:

So given the statistics and the probability of it happening...which are alarming glaring as almost impossible...what reason do you think?

Or is it so ****** up you can't reason it like me?

This guy answers the conundrum pretty accurately.

 

[22A]

Watching Hibs v Rangers. Just before half time Rangers were awarded a penalty which Tavernier scored.

The commentator announced "That's the 43rd penalty that Tavernier has scored".

Tavernier joined Rangers in 2015, just seven years ago when his loan at AG finished. He scored three for us in 12 appearances. Was one of those a penalty?

[Kodjias Wrist]

11 minutes ago, 22A said:

Watching Hibs v Rangers. Just before half time Rangers were awarded a penalty which Tavernier scored.

The commentator announced "That's the 43rd penalty that Tavernier has scored".

Tavernier joined Rangers in 2015, just seven years ago when his loan at AG finished. He scored three for us in 12 appearances. Was one of those a penalty?

Freekick one of them i thought

[exAtyeoMax]

15 hours ago, downendcity said:

This guy answers the conundrum pretty accurately.

 

OR

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

It grows and grows 

Now we have surpassed a full League season with our one as well as approaching a full calendar year. (47 League games and 51 weeks respectively).

50 games in all competitions- another landmark!

All that said, we haven't had many shouts particularly in recent weeks but the stats are remarkable.

That graph of approaching 8,000 minutes per penalty in the League looks quite conservative now.

Think it maybe 9,090 mins at this juncture!?

One penalty in 101 League games going back all but 2 Calendar years.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Clevedon Red]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

It grows and grows 

Now we have surpassed a full League season with our one as well.as approaching a full calendar year. (47 League games and 51 weeks respectively).

50 games in all competitions- another landmark!

All that said, we haven't had many shouts particularly in recent weeks but the stats are remarkable.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

7 minutes ago, Clevedon Red said:

 

Correct.

Last one we scored at home with fans present was vs Luton 1,036 days ago.

1,035 as of Saturday.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Also from memory, 16 against in the same timeframe. (League only).

I understand that it won't be 50/50 as less possession and attacking threat for a good chunk of that time but come on! A ratio of 1:16 over a 2 year period!!

May restart some work on my shots to penalty data and for simplicity purpose, will include the period since the start of 2020-21.

(If we do that, it's 3 for, 17 against or 1:5.667).

Edited October 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

Then we look at Reading for example, in that same period.

16 penalties for vs 10 against. Or a ratio of 1.6:1.

They have not been so statistically different to us, I appreciate that there is more to it than baseline stats but interesting comparison??

Coventry, 10 for vs 19 against. 1:1.9.

Swansea, 9 for v 11 against. Ratio wise that is 1:1.22 (give or take).

Derby although their underlying numbers were a bit better so it's 2020-21 and 2021-22 only, 7 for v 6 against. A near relegation followed by relegation but granted the deductions and restrictions etc.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous