Seeing out games...

[Offside]

I agree that conceding late goals is a real problem and has been for quite a while. There must be something psychological about it, even as a supporter I can’t be the only one who expects us to concede in injury time. 

This season feels different, though, even though the late goals are still occurring. We aren’t sitting back as much as we were this time last year. The goals we’re conceding are more to do with individual errors or just plain bad defending. We don’t feel very solid and even in games when we’ve had clean sheets we’ve made silly errors that could have resulted in a goal. 

[mozo]

50 minutes ago, spudski said:

He has in the past...maybe last season from memory.

Personally I don't see that now.

I just see a structure that allows teams onto us when defending leads in the second half.

Combine that with an opposition that think they will score...because stats say that...then that breeds confidence to go for it.

A tweak imo is needed.

 

I do think he was asked about it again in the past week or two and said something to that effect, but I'm not denying that substitutions and tactics play a [big, probably] part.

[pillred]

11 hours ago, sh1t_ref_again said:

But it is the case we purposely start doing something different or we just cant maintain the level of energy and press and what we were doing for the full 90?, also when a team is loosing their approach, personnel and tactics changes as they have nothing to loose, so they can be more aggressive and take more risks pushing forward. If AW had scored and made it 4-1, with a chance you expect him to take with have put a different gloss on the result.

I do think when we have a lead going into the last 20, it makes more sense to get fresh legs on and in particular to strengthen the midfield and try to cut down the space for them to play

Sorry but it's lose and losing not loose and loosing, (I know sorry).

[real_bristol]

2 hours ago, IAmNick said:

Not sure I really agree with you about sorting our second half out - the sample size is way too small.

For example on that link:

West Brom are 21st 1st half, 1st 2nd.

Milwall are 23rd 1st, 4th 2nd.

Watford are 5th and 17th.

Huddersfield are 8th and 22nd.

Does that make our 1st and 13th seem so bad? That seems within expected margins to me given it's only been a handful of game so far.

I don't think we can keep the intensity up for 90m with the people we start with, so we have to make changes - especially when people like Scott are on a yellow. With our squad size we also don't have the luxury to make the perfect tactical or like for like change.

It's only natural, especially away from home, that the opposition will attack more as the games goes on if they're behind - Are you taking into account that not only are we changing shape, but if the opposition are losing as it passes 60/70m they will be making attacking substitutions... we can't just keep blindly playing the same way we have all game no matter what they do, that's incredibly naive.

I'd argue by and large what we're doing is working so far.

Like when Pring (wasn't it?) last season went for goal right rather than the corner at the end of the game, lost the ball, and they scored? You have to play what's in front of you - and if you're winning as the clock runs down adapt accordingly.

I get the point people are making in general but I think it's a) looking at a small sample size of games, and b) ignoring what the opposition are trying to do. If they're piling on attacking subs or formation changes and we're not reacting that's a recipe for disaster.

In my opinion most opposition managers, when we're 3 - 1 up, would happily take a 50/50 shot at either side scoring... that's a much better chance for them to potentially get something from the match (3-2 or 4-1) than for us! And continuing what we've been doing all game blindly is going to play into that.

 

I don’t disagree with you. In fact I almost typed, “but it’s not as simple as that, is it” after my previous post. There’s no right or wrong answer, unless you’re Sir Alex Ferguson perhaps. Surely it depends on taking each game as it goes. I like what you’re saying about the 50/50 chance of the game going 3-2 or 4-1, makes sense.
 

If it was me coaching the Blackburn game, I would have swapped like for like. Reason being is by doing that you can put an attacking player in a more defensive position if needed and have them on hand to pounce when possession is turned over in our favour. Yes there is obvious risk to that compared to having an extra defensive mind on the field, but it’s a risk I’d be willing to take to tilt the odds of scoring again slightly more in our favour.
 

Also, in my mind, stretching defensive players for a few minutes would enhance their development, would it not? Potentially meaning they will eventually have the ability to defend against two players rather than one. Within this there is also the question of confidence. If you pull off a great win with less defensive players it’s gives them confidence, similarly if you plant in their mind and the oppositions a whiff of panic, the opposition will be more inclined to make you pay, and what does it do to a defenders confidence by showing him he needs help? it would make me wonder if the coach trusts me to do my job. At the same time it may increase risk of injury I suppose.
 

Honestly though, I’m no coach, just some thoughts. Have to say I’m enjoying this type of debate rather than others we were all having not so long ago!

[Davefevs]

City defending….

now, from 76mins onwards…

from a pure maths point of view, everything in the bottom pic should be a 6th (roughly) of the top pic.

Personally I think there is too much going on in the final period of a game (subs, system changes, etc, etc) and to both teams to make judgements based purely on numbers.

Lets not forget, Antoine scored in the 80th minute to secure victory the other night, we’ve not conceded in the final 15 five times so far in 8 games, we haven’t conceded twice (like Forest last year), etc.  You could add 2 cup games too to pad out the numbers.  We actually concede less chances on average in that period that others, but all of them have been on target so far!!

Whilst not being blasé about it, some of the “worry” will come from history and it’s ability to repeat itself, rather than what actually materialises.

Good discussion though.

 

[TheReds]

9 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Whilst not being blasé about it, some of the “worry” will come from history and it’s ability to repeat itself, rather than what actually materialises.

This. 

I was trying to make the point of people actually thinking it happens a lot more than it actually does (to us). We also rarely seem to mention late goals when we score them, it never really seems to be the other teams fault, and it will always seem to be our play that deserved it. We have to accept that there are goals in football right up to the last kick of every game, and it isn't always the fault of the team conceding them. There can be many reasons (and yes sometimes it is our own fault), but it will always happen, and if anyone thinks every team should close out a 1 goal lead at 70+ minutes every single week then they are sadly a bit deluded imo.

Ps - nice stats!

Edited September 5, 2022 by TheReds
Add

[mozo]

19 minutes ago, TheReds said:

This. 

I was trying to make the point of people actually thinking it happens a lot more than it actually does (to us). We also rarely seem to mention late goals when we score them, it never really seems to be the other teams fault, and it will always seem to be our play that deserved it. We have to accept that there are goals in football right up to the last kick of every game, and it isn't always the fault of the team conceding them. There can be many reasons (and yes sometimes it is our own fault), but it will always happen, and if anyone thinks every team should close out a 1 goal lead at 70+ minutes every single week then they are sadly a bit deluded imo.

Ps - nice stats!

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2_2022&tid=j

If I'm reading this correctly (?!), in 2021-22 we had 12 goals for and 15 against in the final 10 minutes of games, so a -3 GD. Doesn't sound too tragic.

Only Reading and Peterborough conceded more in that time slot with respective GD of -9 and -14. Very much the kings of capitulation. 

Forest scored the most (20) and had a positive GD of +12. Coventry only conceded 5 times with a huge GD of +14 in the final 10.

The big reveal...14 teams ended with negative GD of which only 5 worse than ours.

Only one team, Birmingham, had a negative GD in every 10 minute period. Our only positive GD was the first 10 minutes of games with 9 scored and 4 conceded.

The three promoted teams were the only ones without a single negative GD period and only Fulham had positive GD in every slot, and comfortably so.

[Robbored]

On 04/09/2022 at 09:40, spudski said:

...what a fantastic performance yesterday. 

A real pleasure to watch. 

And without wanting to piss on the fire of a happy weekend...I thought it might be worth mentioning/debating/ people's thought... on how we could make our positive starts less nervy in second halves.

I'm sure everyone would agree, that we are offensively very good.

And our weakness is defending leads.

Which we haven't been good at for a while. Conceding late in games from winning positions.

Stats and eyes tell us that.

Knowing that...why would you make substitutions and change formation into a more defensive situation?

Is it ingrained that you have to try and defend and shore up a lead?

Is it in our case, that we don't have the personnel to do otherwise?

The stats show that we have conceded the most goals in the league from 70 mins onwards. 

We brought HNM and Williams on yesterday around 70 mins. Changed formation...2 up front...less pressing with intent. We allowed Blackburn to come at us. As we did in our last game...and made it difficult for ourselves. Their possession went up and they caused us more problems.

Could it not be conceivable, that our best chance of defending leads, is to keep to the same way of playing and make offensive type substitutions when fresh legs needed? As in like for like.

Just a thought...and no way wanting to sound negative.

Just looking at making it easier for ourselves...

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=j

 

Excellent points Spudski - certainly worth discussing.

A simple explanation maybe that Nige is making defensive substitutions to protect a lead because that’s what he and other and experienced managers have always done - probably stemming back to their playing days. It’s almost as if that what’s what it’s says in the managerial handbook………………

 

 

[mozo]

3 hours ago, mozo said:

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2_2022&tid=j

If I'm reading this correctly (?!), in 2021-22 we had 12 goals for and 15 against in the final 10 minutes of games, so a -3 GD. Doesn't sound too tragic.

Only Reading and Peterborough conceded more in that time slot with respective GD of -9 and -14. Very much the kings of capitulation. 

Forest scored the most (20) and had a positive GD of +12. Coventry only conceded 5 times with a huge GD of +14 in the final 10.

The big reveal...14 teams ended with negative GD of which only 5 worse than ours.

Only one team, Birmingham, had a negative GD in every 10 minute period. Our only positive GD was the first 10 minutes of games with 9 scored and 4 conceded.

The three promoted teams were the only ones without a single negative GD period and only Fulham had positive GD in every slot, and comfortably so.

Further to this, we are joint worst for the final 10 minutes split so far this season 0-3. 

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, mozo said:

Further to this, we are joint worst for the final 10 minutes split so far this season 0-3. 

Guessing that’s 81 minutes plus, rather than 80 plus?

Do they split the middle 10 over each side of h-t?

Edited September 5, 2022 by Davefevs

[spudski]

10 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Guessing that’s 81 minutes plus, rather than 80 plus?

Do they split the middle 10 over each side of h-t?

Any extra time is included in 40-50 and 80-90

[Port Said Red]

"Shutting up shop" is a tried and tested method of seeing out games. I think our issue is that we don't really have the personnel to do it properly. Just adding another body in midfield isn't going to help unless they are a defensively minded player. Adding an additional centre half, which we have also done in games, just seems to confuse the rest of the defence as to who is responsible for what. 

I do feel to some extent it is working better though, with 3 clean sheets already this season compared to 6 in the whole of last season. We didn't get our first clean sheet until September, ironically (considering their start to this season) with a 0-0 home draw with Preston. 

If you look at the Championship tables every year though, those teams with low figures in the against column are often hard to find. 18 teams averaged more than a goal a game against, with Sheffield Utd, WBA and Millwall all conceding 45. Even Champions Fulham conceded 43. It's just a really difficult league for defenders.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Port Said Red

[mozo]

41 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Guessing that’s 81 minutes plus, rather than 80 plus?

Do they split the middle 10 over each side of h-t?

Yes and yes

[DaveInSA]

We’ve been doing this since 1983 when I started going to A Gate.

we love sitting way too deep to defend a lead. 
 

if it’s not been fixed in 40 years, I doubt it ever will be.

[Super]

Saturday it was Naismith with the mistake for the 2nd goal, You are always going to struggle seeing out a game making mistakes.

[TheReds]

5 minutes ago, Super said:

Saturday it was Naismith with the mistake for the 2nd goal, You are always going to struggle seeing out a game making mistakes.

Do you expect footballers to make no mistakes in the land, or just our players? I really don't get why some people think no teams should score goals after 80 minutes, where teams have tiring players, and where the opposition are throwing caution to the wind. Weimann could have made it 4-1 couldn't he, so we can blame him for not seeing it out better? If we'd have pressed more and conceded then people would moan about not trying to see the game out. 

It's just tedious how every week we need to find scapegoats for every little thing that has gone or could go wrong, and it never seems to be the opposition deserving to have scored against us (many times when they didn't mind). Mistakes happen, and more so when a team is throwing everything at you.

I'll take being in front by a goal or two on 80 minutes every day of the week, rather than being the chasing team. 

[Super]

2 minutes ago, TheReds said:

Do you expect footballers to make no mistakes in the land, or just our players? I really don't get why some people think no teams should score goals after 80 minutes, where teams have tiring players, and where the opposition are throwing caution to the wind. Weimann could have made it 4-1 couldn't he, so we can blame him for not seeing it out better? If we'd have pressed more and conceded then people would moan about not trying to see the game out. 

It's just tedious how every week we need to find scapegoats for every little thing that has gone or could go wrong, and it never seems to be the opposition deserving to have scored against us (many times when they didn't mind). Mistakes happen, and more so when a team is throwing everything at you.

I'll take being in front by a goal or two on 80 minutes every day of the week, rather than being the chasing team. 

I'm just saying you make mistakes you'll concede goals. Luckily it didn't cost us but we won't always be a few goals to the good in games.

[spudski]

41 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

"Shutting up shop" is a tried and tested method of seeing out games. I think our issue is that we don't really have the personnel to do it properly. Just adding another body in midfield isn't going to help unless they are a defensively minded player. Adding an additional centre half, which we have also done in games, just seems to confuse the rest of the defence as to who is responsible for what. 

I do feel to some extent it is working better though, with 3 clean sheets already this season compared to 6 in the whole of last season. We didn't get our first clean sheet until September, ironically (considering their start to this season) with a 0-0 home draw with Preston. 

If you look at the Championship tables every year though, those teams with low figures in the against column are often hard to find. 18 teams averaged more than a goal a game against, with Sheffield Utd, WBA and Millwall all conceding 45. Even Champions Fulham conceded 43. It's just a really difficult league for defenders.

 

19 minutes ago, Super said:

Saturday it was Naismith with the mistake for the 2nd goal, You are always going to struggle seeing out a game making mistakes.

I think the statement of confusing who's marking who is very valid. Look at the marking of Blackburn's second goal. Who's marking who? They look confused as to who's man is it.

I wouldn't say it was Naismith's mistake sorely...he made a decision based on the space and marking around him.

Blackburn weren't throwing players forward gung ho.

We didn't press their defenders with intent...it was passive. Then we had a line of midfielders marking nothing.

We allowed a through ball through the lines that went to a player in between two defenders and a midfielder. No one had picked him up as their man.

And this imo...is where we make mistakes. We change a formula that we are good at, then revert to shoring up, in a positional situation that doesn't sit naturally. Lots of pointing and shouting as to who should be where. It's noticeable.

It leads to misunderstanding and obvious mistakes. 

For Blackburn's second we didn't press or rush the defender...he was allowed time to pick a perfect pass into feet.

Before that we would have had a third man pressing hard. 

Imo...Massengo should have been that third man pressing and Semenyo supporting. Both had fresh legs and energy. There would have been no need to change shape.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Couple of back of a matchbox ideas on how to better see out games. I don't actually consider it to be a major issue, as the Hull goal was a flukey deflection, the Blackpool goal well these things happen and Brereton-Diaz goal was well worked. On the flipside, we did it fine v Luton, Cardiff and Huddersfield.

Anyway...could Naismith later in games be moved into CM maybe as a DM, perhaps Klose comes on to help see it out. Who comes off is the question- or do we revert to some 4-3-3/4-5-1 in and out of possession hybrid.

Or an RB/RWB on and move Sykes into CM to help form that barrier with the 3rd player in there. Again who comes off.

If we had a goal lead however especially away from home Martin to hold it up or Weimann behind Semenyo and Conway to break on opposition chasing the game with a 3 man barrier in CM could put the side chasing the game in a pretty difficult position.

My views are a bit mixed on how best to see out a game...tighten defence and CM with Martin holding it up pr still have that potentially lethal front 3 when all fully fit of Weimann, Semenyo and Conway to carry that major threat when gaps appear and the opposition chasing the game...Sykes could also contribute well to this.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous