All change please

[DaveInSA]

I wasn't sure what to name this thread. But, I had a look on the Transfermrkt. We have 11 senior players OOC at the end of the year:

Five of them we have options on - but would we want them all? Probably not.

Which means that with zero money (unless Scott and Semenyo are sold - which seems inevitable now) we need to recruit the best part of 9 players (maybe up to 11).

If we're still in this division, that means we need to have some savvy recruitment. If we get it right it could be brilliant, a new brush and all. If we get it wrong...

[Simon bristol]

Next summer is when we finally get rid of most of the ridiculous contracts. Massengo wont sign, im sure semenyo has an option or has been extended. I wouldnt be upset about anyone else just going, they havent justified their wages, and will barely be remembered in 5 years time. Shame theres not a few more on that list, king, james and williams for a start!

[Negan]

I think Bents, Kalas and JD will all stay on. We’re their level, they won’t get better than us only the same. So depends on how settled they are in Bristol vs a bigger wage offer elsewhere. HNM I think we all know will be heading out, most likely abroad. Scott and Semenyo will 100000% be sold to bring in funds for the rest that will leave. I’d imagine Vyner and Wells will be offered deals on reduced wages. Don’t think it’s as bad as it looks there. Question is who we want building this new squad… I’d want a new manager for it myself, don’t trust Nige to build a team. 

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think Bents, Kalas and JD will all stay on. We’re their level, they won’t get better than us only the same. So depends on how settled they are in Bristol vs a bigger wage offer elsewhere. HNM I think we all know will be heading out, most likely abroad. Scott and Semenyo will 100000% be sold to bring in funds for the rest that will leave. I’d imagine Vyner and Wells will be offered deals on reduced wages. Don’t think it’s as bad as it looks there. Question is who we want building this new squad… I’d want a new manager for it myself, don’t trust Nige to build a team. 

Don’t forget - it’s not just the manager who builds the squad. 

[Engvall’s Splinter]

7 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think Bents, Kalas and JD will all stay on. We’re their level, they won’t get better than us only the same. So depends on how settled they are in Bristol vs a bigger wage offer elsewhere. HNM I think we all know will be heading out, most likely abroad. Scott and Semenyo will 100000% be sold to bring in funds for the rest that will leave. I’d imagine Vyner and Wells will be offered deals on reduced wages. Don’t think it’s as bad as it looks there. Question is who we want building this new squad… I’d want a new manager for it myself, don’t trust Nige to build a team. 

Will all have offers. I reckon more than we can offer too. 

[Harry]

18 minutes ago, DaveInSA said:

I wasn't sure what to name this thread. But, I had a look on the Transfermrkt. We have 11 senior players OOC at the end of the year:

Five of them we have options on - but would we want them all? Probably not.

Which means that with zero money (unless Scott and Semenyo are sold - which seems inevitable now) we need to recruit the best part of 9 players (maybe up to 11).

If we're still in this division, that means we need to have some savvy recruitment. If we get it right it could be brilliant, a new brush and all. If we get it wrong...

I would certainly hope that all bar Semenyo in that list are not here next season. 

[The Bard]

5 minutes ago, Negan said:

I think Bents, Kalas and JD will all stay on. We’re their level, they won’t get better than us only the same. So depends on how settled they are in Bristol vs a bigger wage offer elsewhere. HNM I think we all know will be heading out, most likely abroad. Scott and Semenyo will 100000% be sold to bring in funds for the rest that will leave. I’d imagine Vyner and Wells will be offered deals on reduced wages. Don’t think it’s as bad as it looks there. Question is who we want building this new squad… I’d want a new manager for it myself, don’t trust Nige to build a team. 

Jesus no.  Let them leave.  There is much better value for money elsewhere. We should be looking to continue integrating academy players whilst getting more proven Championship players in.

I think Nigel knows what he's doing.  We have a bang average CHampionship squad with a lot of players such as the ones you highlighted on more money than they're worth and who are proven to not be up to it.  We need to 3 or 4 Naismith type signings and another 3 or 4 Sykes type signings.

[JoeAman08]

This must be one of the smallest and unathletic sides in the division. No one on that list is a worry to lose. A few on there that I’d be worried if they stayed

[Negan]

1 hour ago, The Bard said:

Jesus no.  Let them leave.  There is much better value for money elsewhere.

Really? I mean we need a SQUAD not just a first 11. Those 3 players aren’t really the problem. If they were part of the 18 man first team for next season nobody is complaining. Certainly isn’t better value for money considering the alternative would be freebies. Did well getting Naismith, doubt we’d get a better keeper or left back on a free. Kalas imo you pups be the one that would get a better club than us, everybody else is getting Millwall, Coventry, Hull, Luton kind of moves. 

[The Bard]

3 minutes ago, Negan said:

Really? I mean we need a SQUAD not just a first 11. Those 3 players aren’t really the problem. If they were part of the 18 man first team for next season nobody is complaining. Certainly isn’t better value for money considering the alternative would be freebies. Did well getting Naismith, doubt we’d get a better keeper or left back on a free. Kalas imo you pups be the one that would get a better club than us, everybody else is getting Millwall, Coventry, Hull, Luton kind of moves. 

I would be complaining.  It would be a depressing statement.  We're happy to bobble along with the same old.

I think those players are absolutely part of the problem.  Paid way too much for what they contribute.  We can absolutely get better for far less than we pay them.  

 

[GrahamC]

1 hour ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

Will all have offers. I reckon more than we can offer too. 

I rate Kalas but I’d be amazed if there are a queue of clubs beating down the door to sign a bloke who is on high wages & hasn’t kicked a ball in over 7 months.

His next contract will be for far less, no matter where he ends up.

[JoeAman08]

2 hours ago, Negan said:

Really? I mean we need a SQUAD not just a first 11. Those 3 players aren’t really the problem. If they were part of the 18 man first team for next season nobody is complaining. Certainly isn’t better value for money considering the alternative would be freebies. Did well getting Naismith, doubt we’d get a better keeper or left back on a free. Kalas imo you pups be the one that would get a better club than us, everybody else is getting Millwall, Coventry, Hull, Luton kind of moves. 

Don’t need a keeper we have two waiting to play. Could be lesser or might be better. Cheaper though I imagine. 
 

I don’t mind keeping players but at the minute we have too many types and they don’t really mesh. I’d rather start from more of a clean slate. We have some athletic less technical players. We have some technical players who lack strength and pace. We have some who would suit more of a possession style but we are better as a defend and counter side. All of our defenders outside Kalas are probably better at other things than defending. 
 

I feel like the squad is all over the shop. Maybe Pearson is building towards something but it seems more towards a possession game. Using Naismith as a CB benefits us more when we have the ball is an example. Matty James good in possession not really a tackler or imposing. Guess point is that it is an incomplete squad and just resigning players to fill the squad is just as bad as signing squad players. If letting players go means we get 4-5 starters for the style we want than they should go. 

[Davefevs]

24 minutes ago, JoeAman08 said:

Don’t need a keeper we have two waiting to play. Could be lesser or might be better. Cheaper though I imagine. 
 

I don’t mind keeping players but at the minute we have too many types and they don’t really mesh. I’d rather start from more of a clean slate. We have some athletic less technical players. We have some technical players who lack strength and pace. We have some who would suit more of a possession style but we are better as a defend and counter side. All of our defenders outside Kalas are probably better at other things than defending. 
 

I feel like the squad is all over the shop. Maybe Pearson is building towards something but it seems more towards a possession game. Using Naismith as a CB benefits us more when we have the ball is an example. Matty James good in possession not really a tackler or imposing. Guess point is that it is an incomplete squad and just resigning players to fill the squad is just as bad as signing squad players. If letting players go means we get 4-5 starters for the style we want than they should go. 

Think we are in a difficult position with having players on wages too high for the current climate, and no player is realistically gonna take a pay cut until they really have to…which in some cases will be next summer.  And they’ll take their chances on which club will be the best fit for them - which £££s being a big factor.

So, we are left in an uncertain position re squad, and can’t really plan.  It’s a ball ache.

If we just assume for the mo’, Scott and Semenyo stay for another season, we are in for another summer of scrimping in the market, maybe some low value fees for lower-waged players…but it doesn’t get you very excited does it?

I think you are right, there are several players where you really think they are much of a muchness with potential players we could bring in.  Nor is it greatly balanced, even ages are young and old, little in between. I wonder if that is why Nige is talking about how important recruitment is.

Its just one big compromise at the mo….not sure I see that changing either!

[Mr Popodopolous]

Fitness and wages permitting, I'd say that there is a case to try and keep Bentley, Kalas, DaSilva yes. Massengo too, and obviously if not sold we take up the option on Semenyo or we take it up to sell. We cannot keep them on the same terms though, the players signed pre Covid like the first 3, maybe first 4.

Decisions and cases for and against O'Leary and Vyner IMO.

Martin and Wells too old to keep post 2023 at this level? The latter is a good earner too.

Would King move to coaching or just move on?

Klose a year from now, seems both too old and too unavailable?

Bentley, Kalas, DaSilva, Massengo and Wells, decent amortisation will drop off with them all.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[brad blit]

Not a chance Kalas will be staying - he won’t take a pay cut knowing he can get the same (if not more) money elsewhere. 

[Harry]

Losing all those players (bar Semenyo) next summer will probably mean about £5.5m-£6m off the wage bill. 

Offloading Kalas, HNM, Bentley, Dasilva, Wells, Martin & Klose would be 7 out. 
With the money saved, we could easily replace them with 4-5 signings + 2-3 season loans to see us through next season, whereupon the financials will be better. 
 

But, you gotta start that recruitment process now. Get ahead of the curve. Know what’s leaving, know what your system is for next season, know what you need to bring in, start speaking to the agents of other out of contract players, start speaking to the prem clubs about loans, start speaking to the league one clubs and agents about the top young players in that league.  It all needs to be happening right now, setting it all up for next summer. 
 

[Taylor10]

1 hour ago, brad blit said:

Not a chance Kalas will be staying - he won’t take a pay cut knowing he can get the same (if not more) money elsewhere. 

Really? He’s not played for 7 months. I know we are all desperate for his return & I think we need him, but his career has somewhat stagnated here. 
 

I rate him but I would be very surprised if he gets a deal elsewhere anything like what he’s on here.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Only £5-6m?

Unsure that's enough then although savings in amortisation of a similar amount will slash the cost base. Perhaps I'm underestimating savings to date and moving forward.

Let's hope that we aren't starting under some kind of Business plan and or facing FFP charges, as it would make us less attractive to prospective new signings. Otoh things should improve notably in reality..depends if we fail and are under a Business plan of course.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

PS @Harry

Habe you factored the potential changes to regs into your calculations?

Reportedly from 2023-24 *football costs can be 90 pct of turnover only, then 80 pct in 2024-25 and settling at 2025-26 on 70 pct as a new baseline figure.

If Parachute Payments still exist in their existing form...

...*Football costs=Wages, transfer fees and agents fees (presumably amortisation in the last two cases).

[Davefevs]

8 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Only £5-6m?

Unsure that's enough then although savings in amortisation of a similar amount will slash the cost base. Perhaps I'm underestimating savings to date and moving forward.

Let's hope that we aren't starting under some kind of Business plan and or facing FFP charges, as it would make us less attractive to prospective new signings. Otoh things should improve notably in reality..depends if we fail and are under a Business plan of course.

It is only this season we are in any danger of busting FFP…and that seems unlikely bearing in mind there’s been no news so far.

The cycle to end of 23/24 still includes the £38.4m loss from 20/21, but remember it’s coupled with 19/20 and halved.

We’d have to be miles over the £39m in the cycle ending 22/23 to be in danger of busting 23/24, so I can’t see that happening.  If we are projecting that bad a position, we’d know about it…surely.  Results out soon anyway, so we ought to be able to adjust our projections.

As you say, there are amortisation costs saved to the tune of £5m+ as it stands next season too, so coupled with wages saved, we can be shrewd with recruitment…whether we execute shrewd recruitment is another matter.

Of course FFP goes away if Antoine or Alex move on anyway!

 

[Davefevs]

7 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

PS @Harry

Habe you factored the potential changes to regs into your calculations?

Reportedly from 2023-24 *football costs can be 90 pct of turnover only, then 80 pct in 2024-25 and settling at 2025-26 on 70 pct as a new baseline figure.

If Parachute Payments still exist in their existing form...

...*Football costs=Wages, transfer fees and agents fees (presumably amortisation in the last two cases).

I don’t think Harry has done any FFP calculations.  I suspect that by the summer our playing wage bill will be inside 90%!

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

PS @Harry

Habe you factored the potential changes to regs into your calculations?

Reportedly from 2023-24 *football costs can be 90 pct of turnover only, then 80 pct in 2024-25 and settling at 2025-26 on 70 pct as a new baseline figure.

If Parachute Payments still exist in their existing form...

...*Football costs=Wages, transfer fees and agents fees (presumably amortisation in the last two cases).

No, it wasn’t a detailed calculation Pops. Just a simple addition of somewhere between £10k p/w and £25k p/w for some of them. 
It might be more, it might be less, but basically, Wells 25k, Kalas 25k, Bentley 20k, Martin 15k, Dasilva 15k, HNM 10k, Klose 5k, Total £115k pw. 
Pure guesswork but likely these 8 account for at least 5.5 to 6 mil per year. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

It is only this season we are in any danger of busting FFP…and that seems unlikely bearing in mind there’s been no news so far.

The cycle to end of 23/24 still includes the £38.4m loss from 20/21, but remember it’s coupled with 19/20 and halved.

We’d have to be miles over the £39m in the cycle ending 22/23 to be in danger of busting 23/24, so I can’t see that happening.  If we are projecting that bad a position, we’d know about it…surely.  Results out soon anyway, so we ought to be able to adjust our projections.

As you say, there are amortisation costs saved to the tune of £5m+ as it stands next season too, so coupled with wages saved, we can be shrewd with recruitment…whether we execute shrewd recruitment is another matter.

Of course FFP goes away if Antoine or Alex move on anyway!

 

This is true tbh Dave, seeking to cover all bases though.

The 90 pct and how this will align is interesting but like you, I have no concerns about the loss limit side of things.

[Wanderingred]

A few weeks ago we were building something special…. Now we need to get rid of all our players and start over again. This forum…….

[The Bard]

22 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Think we are in a difficult position with having players on wages too high for the current climate, and no player is realistically gonna take a pay cut until they really have to…which in some cases will be next summer.  And they’ll take their chances on which club will be the best fit for them - which £££s being a big factor.

So, we are left in an uncertain position re squad, and can’t really plan.  It’s a ball ache.

If we just assume for the mo’, Scott and Semenyo stay for another season, we are in for another summer of scrimping in the market, maybe some low value fees for lower-waged players…but it doesn’t get you very excited does it?

I think you are right, there are several players where you really think they are much of a muchness with potential players we could bring in.  Nor is it greatly balanced, even ages are young and old, little in between. I wonder if that is why Nige is talking about how important recruitment is.

Its just one big compromise at the mo….not sure I see that changing either!

Massengo, Martin, Vyner Wells, Kalas, Dasilva, Bentley, Klose. 8 squad members.  Probably getting approximately £100k a week between them.  Plus their fees aren't far off the same again.

That will release something in the region of £180k a week next season.  5 solid Championship players plus 3 League 1 players would be possible and we'd save a load of money.  We just have to be smart.  We'd also be able to offer Semenyo a deal. If he doesn't take it then sell.   

My concern is that we don't fall off a cliff as it is a tough Championship this season.  Likes of Kalas and Klose need to be back playing.

 

[Harry]

20 minutes ago, Wanderingred said:

A few weeks ago we were building something special…. Now we need to get rid of all our players and start over again. This forum…….

Well, I certainly wasn’t one who said we were “building something special”. I’m still and always have been of the opinion that we need to avoid the drop this season. 
We have 3 players on whom to build something (AS, AS & TC). The 8 senior pro’s listed above certainly don’t form any part of my ideal squad moving forward. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Finances aside, think @Harry possibly has certain recruitment preferences, maybe a blindspot at times.

Brexit has made it harder but you definitely have a leaning towards Lower League and young prospects. Good potential there of course but a bit of a narrowed pool? Foreign and more experienced or younger PL players also can be useful additions. Our Lower League additions in recent times haven't been a total success either in the last few years- mixed somewhat.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[Engvall’s Splinter]

5 hours ago, GrahamC said:

I rate Kalas but I’d be amazed if there are a queue of clubs beating down the door to sign a bloke who is on high wages & hasn’t kicked a ball in over 7 months.

His next contract will be for far less, no matter where he ends up.

Not disputing that. It’ll be for far more than we are offering though. 

[Major Isewater]

6 hours ago, Wanderingred said:

A few weeks ago we were building something special…. Now we need to get rid of all our players and start over again. This forum…….

This club.

Robbored shot me down when I said this was City all over and now here we are again, talk of top six from the boss and now we’re nervously looking over our shoulders as our form has dropped off a cliff. We dared to dream and now we feel stupid.

[Andy082005]

10 hours ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Fitness and wages permitting, I'd say that there is a case to try and keep Bentley, Kalas, DaSilva yes. Massengo too, and obviously if not sold we take up the option on Semenyo or we take it up to sell. We cannot keep them on the same terms though, the players signed pre Covid like the first 3, maybe first 4.

Decisions and cases for and against O'Leary and Vyner IMO.

Martin and Wells too old to keep post 2023 at this level? The latter is a good earner too.

Would King move to coaching or just move on?

Klose a year from now, seems both too old and too unavailable?

Bentley, Kalas, DaSilva, Massengo and Wells, decent amortisation will drop off with them all.

I stopped reading at Massengo 

One of the most over rated players I’ve ever seen in a City shirt. He brings very little or anything to the team