Results will come.

[Tomo]

9 hours ago, Kingswood Robin said:

I've seen us 5 times, 4 defeats and a 0-0 draw, 1 goal scored. Apart from a decent run and ball in where we hit the bar tonight, 50/50 crosses is about all I've seen in the final third. Decent effort, but it's not decent football in the final third. Results will not come if that's all we have about us. All the praised effort in the world doesn't hide the fact that a very poor Sheffield United have walked away with 3 points.

A very poor side in Sheffield United who are sitting pretty in 3rd place. That's the Championship for you

[ExiledAjax]

It's all about shots.

I heard on Not the Top 20 that prior to last nights game we were top of the chart for "Good chances/shots allowed". In those first 18 games we'd allowed 31 attempts on goal that had a 20% or higher chance of being scored. The average for the league was 19, and Reading had permitted only 8 such chances on their goal. No wonder Bentley and Max have been struggling.

In the first 10 or 11 games we were doing well. We averaged about 11 shots per game, and of those our average shot had about a 14% chance of becoming a goal. The shots we allowed our opponents had about a 10.5% chance of becoming a goal. So we dominated the shot quality, even if we lost on raw number of shots allowed.

But hen in the last 9 that's dropped off a cliff. Our shots now have only a 10% chance of becoming a goal, and we're only taking 9.5 per match. conversely we've allowed the quality of our opponents' chances to rise to 13%, although the raw number of chances against us has been reduced a little.

Last night's game in particular is a display of quality beating quantity. Sheff Utd had 4 shots, but each one averaged 22% chance of being scored. We shot 16 times, but with shots that were barely even half as potent.

I can only think that it's the absence of Naismith - injured half way through the Coventry game - and the resulting changes that has neutralised our previously ruthless attacking force. That then lets off the opponent and allows them to flourish just that little bit more. We might have lost when he played, but we scored in every game and never lost by more than a 1 goal margin. Since he's been out we've had 3 games in which we've failed to score, and have lost by 2 or more goals twice.

[OldlandReddies]

Two decent back to back performances. Just 1 point to show from it which is harsh but consistency in how we play is key. 

[reddoc]

9 hours ago, Rob k said:

Well apart from hitting the bar, the post, Semenyo putting one just wide and another straight down the keepers throat when he should have scored i agree. 

2 great chances, centre of the goal 10 yds out and we fail to hit the target, and a wonderstrike from Tanner. I'd throw in a low cross from Sykes that somehow Wells failed to connect with. Tanners effort was the sort you'll see once a season, and the other three didn't test the keeper. I stand by what I said. We didn't look like scoring.

[Alessandro]

Such a tight league this year. Hate to say it, sorry, but it's "fine margins" more than ever isn't it.

Such a knife edge squad of City players with often variable performances.

Fully fit squad firing with confidence and momentum? Top 6 pushers, yeah fine, let's be positive.

2 or 3 key players out - we seem to just drop off in confidence/performance too quickly and look dangerously easy to beat.

If James, Naismith and Kalas play more games than they miss, we'll be fine. 

Lose them and one or two more...you've seen how our performances can drop off a cliff. We could/have had teams half made up of players who could have been playing U23's midweek.

Hopefully the world cup aids us in giving time to get injured players back - then it's squad retention in Jan (big money offers will undoubtably come) and game time management for rest of season.

I trust in NP, but he's got one hand tied behind his back, if luck doesn't go our way....for all the positivity in the world (and i'm a positive one!), it could be a long season.

Edited November 2, 2022 by Alessandro

[Mr Popodopolous]

30 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's all about shots.

I heard on Not the Top 20 that prior to last nights game we were top of the chart for "Good chances/shots allowed". In those first 18 games we'd allowed 31 attempts on goal that had a 20% or higher chance of being scored. The average for the league was 19, and Reading had permitted only 8 such chances on their goal. No wonder Bentley and Max have been struggling.

In the first 10 or 11 games we were doing well. We averaged about 11 shots per game, and of those our average shot had about a 14% chance of becoming a goal. The shots we allowed our opponents had about a 10.5% chance of becoming a goal. So we dominated the shot quality, even if we lost on raw number of shots allowed.

But hen in the last 9 that's dropped off a cliff. Our shots now have only a 10% chance of becoming a goal, and we're only taking 9.5 per match. conversely we've allowed the quality of our opponents' chances to rise to 13%, although the raw number of chances against us has been reduced a little.

Last night's game in particular is a display of quality beating quantity. Sheff Utd had 4 shots, but each one averaged 22% chance of being scored. We shot 16 times, but with shots that were barely even half as potent.

I can only think that it's the absence of Naismith - injured half way through the Coventry game - and the resulting changes that has neutralised our previously ruthless attacking force. That then lets off the opponent and allows them to flourish just that little bit more. We might have lost when he played, but we scored in every game and never lost by more than a 1 goal margin. Since he's been out we've had 3 games in which we've failed to score, and have lost by 2 or more goals twice.

That does remind me, I'm going to restart work on my shot to penalty awarded ratio from 2020-21 to the present. Is a big job...

Though we outshot Blackburn iirc...?

[JoeAman08]

1 hour ago, Rob k said:

What route would you take if you got rid of NP? He’s had to take 13m out the wage bill. 

Out of a wage bill that should never have been that high. We are back to where we should be more or less. I’d go for a young manager trying to make his way into the game much like Middlesborough have. Time will tell if that will go well for them. Again I have said NP should see out the year but I have not been convinced by his tactics, his decisions regarding personnel and the persistent problems defending. 

[Rob k]

32 minutes ago, reddoc said:

2 great chances, centre of the goal 10 yds out and we fail to hit the target, and a wonderstrike from Tanner. I'd throw in a low cross from Sykes that somehow Wells failed to connect with. Tanners effort was the sort you'll see once a season, and the other three didn't test the keeper. I stand by what I said. We didn't look like scoring.

Bar the 2 great chances and the cross from Sykes against a team that’s 3rd - it’s your opinion and your fully entitled to it but i think we did look like we could score.

[Kid in the Riot]

1 hour ago, Rob k said:

What route would you take if you got rid of NP? He’s had to take 13m out the wage bill. 

No doubt he's significantly reduced the wage bill but didn't Gould say the other night it was still top 10?

[Mr Popodopolous]

Just now, Kid in the Riot said:

No doubt he's significantly reduced the wage bill but didn't Gould say the other night it was still top 10?

 He did.

He also said we lost £10m less than 2020-21 which is still a lot and gives no credence given that revenue bouncing back to some extent is the other side of the coin, that gives no credence to the £13m wage reduction claim. Interesting to see how the circle is squared when the accounts are out...

[Clutton Caveman]

12 hours ago, MarcusX said:

Agreed, similar to the Norwich game. Can’t fault the effort or work rate.

Someone actually suggested a few weeks ago that the players had downed tools, not a chance.

Another night we score a hatful 

I think as long as we stay up we are building. This team reminds me of the team in the 70's that got us into Division 1. The talent is raw at the moment and we need some more experience but the team spirit is great. NP has changed the culture and if we are patient I think good things will come.

Priority for me it making crosses more productive both by the quality of delivery and the positioning of players in the box.

[Rob k]

1 minute ago, Kid in the Riot said:

No doubt he's significantly reduced the wage bill but didn't Gould say the other night it was still top 10?

It probably is to be fair, but how much of that is still going to be made up of the previous recruitment and the paying of crazy wages, I think we only have to look at this seasons signings to see we are massively hamstrung and even last night NP was quite clear we still lack the quality he really wants to compete consistently. I’m not saying he gets everything right but im not sure a change of manager at this point will help with a lot personally until a manager is able to make the signings he’s after. I think he knows what we need but we just can’t afford it currently. We have not been able to get our biggest earner on the pitch, we spent god knows how much in wages  on Palmer who contributed nothing, and he clearly doesn’t fancy another big earner in Bentley. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

9 minutes ago, Rob k said:

It probably is to be fair, but how much of that is still going to be made up of the previous recruitment and the paying of crazy wages, I think we only have to look at this seasons signings to see we are massively hamstrung and even last night NP was quite clear we still lack the quality he really wants to compete consistently. I’m not saying he gets everything right but im not sure a change of manager at this point will help with a lot personally until a manager is able to make the signings he’s after. I think he knows what we need but we just can’t afford it currently. We have not been able to get our biggest earner on the pitch, we spent god knows how much in wages  on Palmer who contributed nothing, and he clearly doesn’t fancy another big earner in Bentley. 

Hamstrung by overhang of prior spending yes, but I question how much it came down by last season given a) Revenue will have shot back up although to what extent remains to be seen, and b) Amortisation will also have dropped as players left on frees.

Which unless there is a big exceptional item, doesn't leave a huge amount of scope for a big wage fall last season (Accounting losses possibly £28m).

Edited November 2, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

46 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Though we outshot Blackburn iirc...?

Ah yeh, had the numbers the wrong way round. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion.

[Rob k]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hamstrung by overhang of prior spending yes, but I question how much it came down by last season given a) Revenue will have shot back up although to what extent remains to be seen, and b) Amortisation will also have dropped as players left on frees.

Which unless there is a big exceptional item, doesn't leave a huge amount of scope for a big wage fall last season (Accounting losses possibly £28m).

I will be honest, the amortisation and FFP somewhat confuses me. In regards to the wage drop of 13m, im sure that was the figure quoted but could also just be a rumour, im sure others will know more than me 

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Rob k said:

I will be honest, the amortisation and FFP somewhat confuses me. In regards to the wage drop of 13m, im sure that was the figure quoted but could also just be a rumour, im sure others will know more than me 

Perhaps was a combination of amortisation and wage drop, might make more sense though the losses last season at £28m does surprise me. Maybe revenue didn't bounce back as quickly as anticipated?

[Daniro]

If we can keep this squad in tact and fit for the rest of the season, I'm confident results will come.  

Problem is we keep losing key players to injury and our squad is small to start with.

And Scott put on a good show for the Sky cameras yesterday.  

And Semenyo might shine in Qatar.     

Oh god,  I'm not confident at all!

 

 

 

[Sheltons Army]

37 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hamstrung by overhang of prior spending yes, but I question how much it came down by last season given a) Revenue will have shot back up although to what extent remains to be seen, and b) Amortisation will also have dropped as players left on frees.

Which unless there is a big exceptional item, doesn't leave a huge amount of scope for a big wage fall last season (Accounting losses possibly £28m).

I assumed that the reason we are still in the top ten wage bills is down to the remaining presence of 4 or 5 from the previous regime of extravagance (Kalas , Bentley , JD, Wells etc) ?

Our relevant placing in wage budget / spend would be interesting if those wages were replaced 1 v 1 by our new wage philosophy

 

[Kid in the Riot]

24 minutes ago, Sheltons Army said:

I assumed that the reason we are still in the top ten wage bills is down to the remaining presence of 4 or 5 from the previous regime of extravagance (Kalas , Bentley , JD, Wells etc) ?

Our relevant placing in wage budget / spend would be interesting if those wages were replaced 1 v 1 by our new wage philosophy

Not sure it would be given most clubs in this division are in a similar place post-covid to us. 

If we assume we are tenth in wages, then interestingly that would be the same as the 2019/20 season:

[Super]

32 minutes ago, Daniro said:

If we can keep this squad in tact and fit for the rest of the season, I'm confident results will come.  

Problem is we keep losing key players to injury and our squad is small to start with.

And Scott put on a good show for the Sky cameras yesterday.  

And Semenyo might shine in Qatar.     

Oh god,  I'm not confident at all!

 

 

 

If we could get a decent fee for Semenyo i would let him go. Hopefully some of the money would be used to strengthen the squad.

[Harry]

Performance-wise. I thought that was probably our best this season. 
It seems this season that our best performances have been against the top 6 or 7 teams (Burnley away, Norwich away, Blackburn away, Swansea home, Sheff U home).  Add West Brom, who probably ‘should’ be one of those top 7 teams  

What we need to do is to replicate those good performances against the middle and lower teams. And that’s something we can’t seem to do at the moment. 
 

My biggest concerns, as others have said, is our penchant for amassing huge numbers of poor crosses. 
In this high-wing back system, the wing backs need to be contributing goals and assists. They are not. Both JD and Sykes regularly get in decent positions but lack the quality or composure once there. 
 

Anyway, I know this is unlikely, so it’s only an observation, but based on games in hand, we could be 23rd. As I say, that won’t happen as those games in hand need to be won, but it does give us an idea of how perilously close we are to the drop. 
 

I’ve said elsewhere that I will be happy this year to finish 21st. I still see this squad as one which is going to be in a relegation scrap. Some of our performances have been good. But we are not consistently good enough. 
 

I do worry for us to be honest. This is a tight league and games often come down to very fine margins and usually only a goal in it. We aren’t taking advantage when we are on top in games and it comes back to haunt us. 

We’ve won 6 games this season. 4 of them by a 2 goal margin. So when we are clinical and take our chances when on top, we can win games by a good margin. But the games which are tight, the 1-goal margin games, we are too often on the wrong side of the result. 
 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Harry

[Mr Popodopolous]

Some of those sides play each other ie the teams below us, they can't both win.

Ppg wise we are not in relegation danger, 22/19 extrapolated is usually lower midtable, maybe lower but definitely not bottom 3.

Talking of Sykes and DaSilva, had a quick look at Sofascore and this stat surprised me. It said that only 2 big chances apiece created this season. Stats can he used to prove and disprove many things but that's fairly shocking if accurate.

[Davefevs]

3 hours ago, Super said:

The worry i have is far too many times we play quite well and end up with nothing. I thought we played well last night but again we waste so many good opportunities. 

2 good performances this week and only 1 point to show for it.

I think that is the nature of the squad we have.  We need to have a good number playing well / near the top of their game to really compete.  When they do we can beat anyone.  We actually made 3rd place SU look poor last night.  We normally play well against the better side, but they still normally carve out chances, and it’s a bit more helter-skelter, but last night we dominated, which is quite rare for us.  Most players, played above their average.

On the flipside, when we don’t have enough players playing well, we get Reading (a).  When we have a couple of players not really putting it in we get Birmingham (a).  Those are the games we are trying to cut out.

We aren’t a million miles away, but we really need quality from better players, rather than expecting players to have their A-game most weeks.

Thats where the squad quality is lacking.  All players are good on their day, but our squad’s “average” day is mid to lower half.

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

It's all about shots.

I heard on Not the Top 20 that prior to last nights game we were top of the chart for "Good chances/shots allowed". In those first 18 games we'd allowed 31 attempts on goal that had a 20% or higher chance of being scored. The average for the league was 19, and Reading had permitted only 8 such chances on their goal. No wonder Bentley and Max have been struggling.

In the first 10 or 11 games we were doing well. We averaged about 11 shots per game, and of those our average shot had about a 14% chance of becoming a goal. The shots we allowed our opponents had about a 10.5% chance of becoming a goal. So we dominated the shot quality, even if we lost on raw number of shots allowed.

But hen in the last 9 that's dropped off a cliff. Our shots now have only a 10% chance of becoming a goal, and we're only taking 9.5 per match. conversely we've allowed the quality of our opponents' chances to rise to 13%, although the raw number of chances against us has been reduced a little.

Last night's game in particular is a display of quality beating quantity. Sheff Utd had 4 shots, but each one averaged 22% chance of being scored. We shot 16 times, but with shots that were barely even half as potent.

I can only think that it's the absence of Naismith - injured half way through the Coventry game - and the resulting changes that has neutralised our previously ruthless attacking force. That then lets off the opponent and allows them to flourish just that little bit more. We might have lost when he played, but we scored in every game and never lost by more than a 1 goal margin. Since he's been out we've had 3 games in which we've failed to score, and have lost by 2 or more goals twice.

As you know, I’m quite into “big chances”, xG > 0.3…and those have dropped off in recent weeks.  Why?  Not just Naismith injury, but we aren’t playing through the lines quickly enough, not penetrating enough through the centre of the pitch…which is where you get Andy / Antoine running at back-pedalling defenders, Alex able to link, etc.. what we are doing at the mo’, is playing more pretty, patient stuff, going from Centre-back to outside centre-back, to wing-back, but without penetrating.

2 hours ago, reddoc said:

2 great chances, centre of the goal 10 yds out and we fail to hit the target, and a wonderstrike from Tanner. I'd throw in a low cross from Sykes that somehow Wells failed to connect with. Tanners effort was the sort you'll see once a season, and the other three didn't test the keeper. I stand by what I said. We didn't look like scoring.

Semenyo had a good chance, dragged wide, a combo of Wells not getting enough contact on a cross and Dasilva not able to force it in at the back post after his glanced shot.  Weimsnn’s volley.  We did look like scoring imho…without Weimann and Tanner’s woodwork efforts.

1 hour ago, Kid in the Riot said:

No doubt he's significantly reduced the wage bill but didn't Gould say the other night it was still top 10?

This is where we need to be careful.  We have wiped out cost…not wages, although that has been cut too.  Amortisation was a huge annual millstone, down from £14m peak to £6/7m last year and this, to £1m next year.  £13m off our cost base in amortisation, plus wages next season will make investment in players easier in the summer.  But, yeah, it’s not £13, off the wage bill, not on the football side anyway.

[marcofisher]

I hoping that when Atkinson is fit, we will be able to push Pring to wing back. I think he has a much better ability to drive at opposition defences and get to the byeline than JD, and will be able to produce a far better end product by fizzing balls across the box. The generic loopy balls by JD are just too easy to defend.

[Davefevs]

Just now, marcofisher said:

I hoping that when Atkinson is fit, we will be able to push Pring to wing back. I think he has a much better ability to drive at opposition defences and get to the byeline than JD, and will be able to produce a far better end product by fizzing balls across the box. The generic loopy balls by JD are just too easy to defend.

I hope we get to see it…and at least observe whether it makes a difference.  We saw pre-season v Cheltenham (yeah, yeah, only Lg1) how his bustling wing-back play can really work for us against deep-lying teams.

[Rob k]

2 hours ago, JoeAman08 said:

Out of a wage bill that should never have been that high. We are back to where we should be more or less. I’d go for a young manager trying to make his way into the game much like Middlesborough have. Time will tell if that will go well for them. Again I have said NP should see out the year but I have not been convinced by his tactics, his decisions regarding personnel and the persistent problems defending. 

So a LJ or Holden type for you then? I’ve no issues with that approach by the way and would be my preference moving forward but it comes with risk.

I think an NP type was the correct appointment when it was made though.

[marcofisher]

21 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

I hope we get to see it…and at least observe whether it makes a difference.  We saw pre-season v Cheltenham (yeah, yeah, only Lg1) how his bustling wing-back play can really work for us against deep-lying teams.

You need wing backs to drive at defences and push the opposition back, creating spaces for others. JD is more of a full back in a possession based system than a wing back. 

[reddoc]

39 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Semenyo had a good chance, dragged wide, a combo of Wells not getting enough contact on a cross and Dasilva not able to force it in at the back post after his glanced shot.  Weimsnn’s volley.  We did look like scoring imho…without Weimann and Tanner’s woodwork efforts.

I've got no issues with how we played Dave and any argument over whether we looked like scoring or not is completely subjective. Fact is we didn't score.

From the amount of possession we had, positions we found ourselves in and chances created , we should have done. Tanner's strike was unlucky, but everything else was down to poor finishing, poor choice or poor execution of the final ball. I don't have a solution it's just my opinion.

[SouthS22]

Last night’s performance was decent, apart from yet another really soft goal.  But that’s the key and a continuing theme this season - yet another soft goal.  We look solid in open play a lot of the time and then someone just makes a basic mistake and we’re behind or pegged back. Every game there’s hope of course but there’s also a feeling of dread of how we are going to contrive to mess it up, and then it happens and it’s head in hands time again. 

Even if we can keep putting in good performances, and that is by no means a given having seen the number of times we haven’t turned up, we are not going to win many games unless we stop conceding these goals.  We are the Santa of the championship, gifting opponents points on a regular basis, either as a result of goals from set pieces or from basic defensive errors.

I know that the officials shouldn’t have given it, and that it was a makeshift back 3, but it doesn’t change the fact that last night saw us make really poor defensive mistakes again.  No matter who’s been playing, it’s been a pretty consistent run.  I like the optimism of we’ll win if we play like this, but really it’s a recipe for disaster to continue giving up such soft goals and I it’s going to get us in trouble - this league is just too tight to being giving any out any more gifts.  

[Offside]

We played well last night and deserved to win, but I am concerned about being dragged into a relegation battle. We find points hard to come by.