Could the unthinkable happen?

[Clutton Caveman]

I was scanning the league tables after the Stoke game and got a horrible feeling in my stomach.

Considering our current form, upcoming fixtures, very low chances of improving the squad in January it seems a relegation fight is almost inevitable.

At the same time looking at the league 1 stats the Gas Heads must be very optimistic. They are winning ugly and finding a way to accumulate points at an alarming rate.

If he didn't come with so much baggage I think Barton would have been offered a better job long ago. After the traditional slow start he seems to get a tune out of a bunch of no names.

The thought of passing each other has not been on the cards for years but just at the moment I cannot quite get the thought out of my head. I wonder what the odds are?

[BCFCGav]

It's certainly possible, and something me and some other City fans discussed Saturday, but it's nowhere near likely enough to worry about yet. I think we'll survive and they'll stay down, I'd be truly amazed to be wrong on both counts.

[mozo]

We only need to worry about relegation for now and I think a dogfight is really possible. 

The past week has been classic City catfishing. We comfortably win away to get our hopes up, then don't show up the following game and contrive to lose.

After beating West Brom in October we then went on a 5 game winless run (plus a pathetic cup exit). Can't afford to do that now or it'll get very concerning and inevitably toxic.

[sh1t_ref_again]

Ohh I thought you were going to say we could promoted, surprising how often a team at the bottom makes a run second half of the season

[ExiledAjax]

Mathematically it's possible.

Realistically it's incredibly improbable.

[Coxy27]

Best odds you can find;

Rovers promotion - 40/1

City relegation - 11/2

Combined odds therefore roughly 265/1 or 0.4%

But - these odds will have bookmakers margin built in which is probably a decent percentage off the true probability.

It's probably more like 1 in 4 to 5 hundred I'd say.

Very unlikely.

 

[Sir Geoff]

39 minutes ago, Clutton Caveman said:

I was scanning the league tables after the Stoke game and got a horrible feeling in my stomach.

Considering our current form, upcoming fixtures, very low chances of improving the squad in January it seems a relegation fight is almost inevitable.

At the same time looking at the league 1 stats the Gas Heads must be very optimistic. They are winning ugly and finding a way to accumulate points at an alarming rate.

If he didn't come with so much baggage I think Barton would have been offered a better job long ago. After the traditional slow start he seems to get a tune out of a bunch of no names.

The thought of passing each other has not been on the cards for years but just at the moment I cannot quite get the thought out of my head. I wonder what the odds are?

Current form isn't bad. Draw with Watford, away win at Rotherham.

In our next 6 fixtures we should be winning at least 2 of them. (1 win every 3 games on average will see us safe).

I think you may be surprised at the activity this January. Pretty sure there will be movement in and out.

 

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, Sir Geoff said:

Current form isn't bad. Draw with Watford, away win at Rotherham.

In our next 6 fixtures we should be winning at least 2 of them. (1 win every 3 games on average will see us safe).

I think you may be surprised at the activity this January. Pretty sure there will be movement in and out.

 

I think so too. I think in previous windows we were constrained whilst we were waiting to see the covid add backs the EFL would allow. We now know where we stand with that so I believe we have a little bit of wriggle room. 

I believe there are by far 3 worse clubs in this league than us. 

[Sniper]

1 hour ago, Clutton Caveman said:

I was scanning the league tables after the Stoke game and got a horrible feeling in my stomach.

Considering our current form, upcoming fixtures, very low chances of improving the squad in January it seems a relegation fight is almost inevitable.

At the same time looking at the league 1 stats the Gas Heads must be very optimistic. They are winning ugly and finding a way to accumulate points at an alarming rate.

If he didn't come with so much baggage I think Barton would have been offered a better job long ago. After the traditional slow start he seems to get a tune out of a bunch of no names.

The thought of passing each other has not been on the cards for years but just at the moment I cannot quite get the thought out of my head. I wonder what the odds are?

You're not alone. I started thinking about this a few weeks back. Being in the same division as them would be extremely embarrassing on it's own, to swap, oh lordy, I think I'd move to the Shetlands Even though we are so hit and miss I think we'll stay up (just!) and with the top 3 in League 1 I can't see the SAGS worrying them, so it would have to be the Playoffs. I still think we need to have a word with their coaches and Joey though on how they manage to cheat their way to so many points with Penalties and getting opposition players Red Cards.

[DaveInSA]

1 hour ago, Sir Geoff said:

Current form isn't bad. Draw with Watford, away win at Rotherham.

In our next 6 fixtures we should be winning at least 2 of them. (1 win every 3 games on average will see us safe).

I think you may be surprised at the activity this January. Pretty sure there will be movement in and out.

 

I wonder if the activity you speak of is what is destabilising the squad.

I understand why we have the transfer windows, to stop rich teams just buying players at the end of the season.

For me the windows are manufactured click bait nonsense for the media hype. 

It’s not like we’re a rich club or ever in the mix to win anything! So I say they should be abolished.

[Mr Popodopolous]

46 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I think so too. I think in previous windows we were constrained whilst we were waiting to see the covid add backs the EFL would allow. We now know where we stand with that so I believe we have a little bit of wriggle room.

That's still open to argument btw, the EFL may or may not have permitted it but just recently, the CFRP have been appointed and will be reviewing submissions for all clubs. Unsure that it is quite so cut and dry as you suggest.

https://www.sportresolutions.com/news/view/efl-club-financial-review-panel-has-been-appointed

In theory could they even overrule or find fault with existing club and EFL agreements? Well they've only just been appointed so it feels like an open question.

Do you factor in this new body into your calculations?

Edited December 20, 2022 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, Coxy27 said:

Best odds you can find;

Rovers promotion - 40/1

City relegation - 11/2

Combined odds therefore roughly 265/1 or 0.4%

But - these odds will have bookmakers margin built in which is probably a decent percentage off the true probability.

It's probably more like 1 in 4 to 5 hundred I'd say.

Very unlikely.

Equally fivethirtyeight currently have:

Bristol City relegation chance: 14% (1 in 8 )

Bristol Rovers promotion chance: 4% (1 in 20)

0.14*0.04 = 0.0056. 0.0056*100 = a 0.56% chance, or 1 in 180.

I won't lose sleep over it.

Edited December 20, 2022 by ExiledAjax

[Numero Uno]

2 hours ago, Clutton Caveman said:

I was scanning the league tables after the Stoke game and got a horrible feeling in my stomach.

Considering our current form, upcoming fixtures, very low chances of improving the squad in January it seems a relegation fight is almost inevitable.

At the same time looking at the league 1 stats the Gas Heads must be very optimistic. They are winning ugly and finding a way to accumulate points at an alarming rate.

If he didn't come with so much baggage I think Barton would have been offered a better job long ago. After the traditional slow start he seems to get a tune out of a bunch of no names.

The thought of passing each other has not been on the cards for years but just at the moment I cannot quite get the thought out of my head. I wonder what the odds are?

Performances like Saturday against a very poor side don’t help but then again we’re likely to put in a good performance and/or get a result when everyone is starting to panic. We are ridiculously inconsistent in a different way to the LJ era when it was 12 unbeaten followed by 12 without a win!!

On the plus side we do score goals, our one element of consistency, Semenyo will wake up to get his move imo and I also expect Scott to move on a level and add more end product to his game in the next few months. We look better with Max in goal despite his poor shout on Saturday so no worries there. The twenty minutes we did turn up on Saturday showed that we have more in our locker than teams like Stoke and that ought to be worth a few points over 23 matches.

Overall we should be ok albeit you just can’t see us doing it comfortably right now………unless we can move a few on in January and get in a Centre Half worthy of the name in which case we win that game 1-0 on Saturday.

[GrahamC]

We are currently on track after 23 games with exactly the same number of points as last season to reach 54 points, last season we actually managed 55.

There isn’t a chance in a million that you get relegated with that total.

Our “current form”, so last 3 W1 D1 L1 or our last 10, W3 D3 L4, is by no means relegation form, either.

Rovers are on an excellent run but are still 12 points adrift of the top three, then in 4th Barnsley are 5 points ahead & have 2 games in hand, Bolton are 4 points ahead & have a game in hand, Derby 3 ahead & a game in hand, then Portsmouth are 2 points behind them but have played 3 games fewer, making reaching the top six when all of these sides are bigger than them, seem tricky to me.

This isn’t like beating some non league teams youth side 7-0, these sides have decent budgets, far better grounds & support.

Edited December 20, 2022 by GrahamC

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

15 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

We are currently on track after 23 games with exactly the same number of points as last season to reach 54 points, last season we actually managed 55.

There isn’t a chance in a million that you get relegated with that total.

Our “current form”, so last 3 W1 D1 L1 or our last 10, W3 D3 L4, is by no means relegation form, either.

Rovers are on an excellent run but are still 12 points adrift of the top three, then in 4th Barnsley are 5 points ahead & have 2 games in hand, Bolton are 4 points ahead & have a game in hand, Derby 3 ahead & a game in hand, then Portsmouth are 2 points behind them but have played 3 games fewer, making reaching the top six when all of these sides are bigger than them, seem tricky to me.

This isn’t like beating some non league teams youth side 7-0, these sides have decent budgets, far better grounds & support.

Peterborough went down with 54 points in 2012-13.

[GrahamC]

7 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

Peterborough went down with 54 points in 2012-13.

Yes, they did, but I can find no other occurrence of this happening since we went to a 24 team division.

This season Huddersfield currently have 19 points, so they would effectively need to win half of their remaining games to reach that figure (they have won 5 so far), Wigan would need to get 30 more points in half a season, so would Blackpool. Rotherham (below us) have only picked up 5 points from the last 27 that were available to them.

It isn’t happening.

[marmite]

It's unlikely but this could be our last "gap" year. 

[Son of Fred]

1 hour ago, Sniper said:

You're not alone. I started thinking about this a few weeks back. Being in the same division as them would be extremely embarrassing on it's own, to swap, oh lordy, I think I'd move to the Shetlands Even though we are so hit and miss I think we'll stay up (just!) and with the top 3 in League 1 I can't see the SAGS worrying them, so it would have to be the Playoffs. I still think we need to have a word with their coaches and Joey though on how they manage to cheat their way to so many points with Penalties and getting opposition players Red Cards.

Wouldn't bother me at all to be playing them in the Championship - 

But not in league one!

In the unlikely event of them getting up -

They would literally be out of their league & it would be a delight to watch them wriggle..

[Bazooka Joe]

Some weeks ago this scenario would have been probably about as likely as Saudi Arabia beating Argentina in a World Cup game.

 

 

[Calculus]

We are 3 points away from 23rd, so of course it can happen.

Defense a mess, centre halves injured or out of favour, young players possibly going in January, financial position near to points deduction, leadership in the board room gone to pot.

Of course it can happen.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Calculus

[Guest]

2 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I think so too. I think in previous windows we were constrained whilst we were waiting to see the covid add backs the EFL would allow. We now know where we stand with that so I believe we have a little bit of wriggle room. 

I believe there are by far 3 worse clubs in this league than us. 

Would be good to be safe before end of April.....well the begining really ......as we finish that month having to play 3 of the current top 4 teams and Rotherham who may want the points also.

Dont believe the transfer window will make much difference myself and these 3 worse clubs? Rotherham/Wigan/Huddersfield? we are certainly putting ourselves in the mix if we dont stop the silly mistakes and wake the hell up soon.

[sglosbcfc]

Anything is possible, but you just know that the beauty of the Championship is that City will probably spank WBA on boxing day and then the talk will disappear....for a while anyway.

[And Its Smith]

23 minutes ago, Calculus said:

We are 3 points away from 23rd, so of course it can happen.

Defense a mess, centre halves injured or out of favour, young players possibly going in January, financial position near to points deduction, leadership in the board room gone to pot.

Of course it can happen.

The OP is saying can we go down and Rovers go up which is an obvious no 

[Redrascal2]

Well I think it is quite possible we could go down. Nothing has changed since we gifted goals away at the start of the season. We cannot keep relying on 3 teams worse than us to bail us out.

[Super]

17 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

The OP is saying can we go down and Rovers go up which is an obvious no 

Hardly an obvious no.

[Merrick's Marvels]

1 hour ago, GrahamC said:

We are currently on track after 23 games with exactly the same number of points as last season to reach 54 points, last season we actually managed 55.

But last season we improved after xmas by tightening up at the back - including picking 3 tall, no-nonsense CBs - Semenyo hitting an excellent streak of form - motivated, playing well and scoring goals - as was Weimann and Martin's link and hold up play knitted the whole thing into a potent strike force. 

That's how we clambered to safety.

This season we have the opposite of no-nonsense CBs - Semenyo appears disinterested or out of form (take your pick), Weimann isn't scoring (for reasons not entirely his fault) and Martin seems to have gone over the hill.

So I'm not sure how we replicate last season's improvement. Basically we need a miracle - either in the transfer market or in players' form/attitude/fitness. Imo. Glass half empty as usual.

Merry xmas! 

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Merrick's Marvels

[Alex_BCFC]

We do still have Hull, Wigan , Blackpool and Rotherham to play at home. We are very inconsistent but you’d hope that our lack of luck (deserved to beat Watford and Sheff U for example) and lack of penalties might start to even itself out at some point.

It’s not impossible of course but I think we can get to the 50 points. Currently 49 would be enough based on 22nd’s points. It’s a tight league - probably closest it’s been in years. Only Burnley I’ve felt have looked good or miles better than us etc. 

[Calculus]

13 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

The OP is saying can we go down and Rovers go up which is an obvious no 

Fair enough he did. Wasn't thinking about the Rovers bit as I couldn't care less what they do (even though they still live in many peoples' heads on here for some odd reason).

Now you remind me, yes its possible if unlikely. We can obviously go down given where we are. They could sneak into the last playoff spot and get lucky. 

 

[And Its Smith]

1 minute ago, Super said:

Hardly an obvious no.

This season it is. As someone above says it’s hundreds to one.  We might go down but there’s no way they will go up 

[Super]

3 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

This season it is. As someone above says it’s hundreds to one.  We might go down but there’s no way they will go up 

Not even halfway through the season and they are 3 points off the playoffs.