BigAl&Toby Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 Forget all this bloody are we safe nonsense. How many are needed for Top 6 finish? If the stars and they planets remain aligned I reckon we might finish with between 62 and 77. Might 77 be enough? Ever the optimist…… or fool. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bcfctim Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 2 points a game from here on out would get us to 70 - that would be there or thereabouts you'd think. Big ask, but not impossible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daored Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 13 minutes ago, BigAl&Toby said: Forget all this bloody are we safe nonsense. How many are needed for Top 6 finish? If the stars and they planets remain aligned I reckon we might finish with between 62 and 77. Might 77 be enough? Ever the optimist…… or fool. I really think it’s a possibility - the next three league games are critical for me , IF we can get three wins then on 53 points and game on. Think we have the momentum behind us and the freshness of the two new outfield players. It’s a tall order but certainly not unachievable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post cidercity1987 Posted February 26 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 26 We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run. Not happening. 18 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taz Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 Let's see where we are at the end of March/mid April first. Currently a good run from anyone can propel them up the league, whilst a bad run could see trouble. Momentum is on our side at the moment, and it would be great if we are the one team that usually puts a run together to be in the mix every year, but let's not get all Rovers-esque by thinking we can get the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, daored said: I really think it’s a possibility - the next three league games are critical for me , IF we can get three wins then on 53 points and game on. Think we have the momentum behind us and the freshness of the two new outfield players. It’s a tall order but certainly not unachievable Even after winning the next 3 games we'd still need 17 points from 10 games just to get to 70 and have a slim chance of 6th spot. It's just so unlikely. We basically can't afford to lose or even draw more than 4 games in our last 13 league matches. Take a look at our last 6 games and tell me how you think this is going to go. 5 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said: We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run. Not happening. Because it turns out that the top 6 are quite good at picking up points! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 All we can do is keep picking off the teams above us and see where it gets us. We took Hull and Swansea on Saturday (Swansea playing Rotherham tomorrow, which gives us a game in hand) Preston next in our sights. They are the only team currently within 3 points (1 games worth) of us. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Numero Uno Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 6 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said: We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run. Not happening. The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glynriley Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 10 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said: We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run. Not happening. We were 8 behind after the WBA game on Boxing Day, it’s now 9. As you say, not going to happen. 2 minutes ago, Numero Uno said: The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige. Just 2 points above the drop zone after WBA,now 13. Players and management deserve a lot of credit for that turn around. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 10 minutes ago, Numero Uno said: The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige. Yeah of course , we have had play off form for 9 or 10 games but we would have to go at automatic form (more wins less draws) to make up for the lower midtable form before Christmas 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 Just now, glynriley said: We were 8 behind after the WBA game on Boxing Day, it’s now 9. As you say, not going to happen. Just 2 points above the drop zone after WBA,now 13. Players and management deserve a lot of credit for that turn around. Without getting carried away, our cup run means some teams have played more games than us in that period. But I still call them “a lose in hand”. Great believer in points in the bag. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daored Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 16 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said: Even after winning the next 3 games we'd still need 17 points from 10 games just to get to 70 and have a slim chance of 6th spot. It's just so unlikely. We basically can't afford to lose or even draw more than 4 games in our last 13 league matches. Take a look at our last 6 games and tell me how you think this is going to go. Because it turns out that the top 6 are quite good at picking up points! No denying that the fixtures in April are tough, I agree it’s extremely unlikely we’d achieve top six but if we go into those fixtures in form then who knows? Beat Cardiff Saturday then look at the next is all we do and see where it may take us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 16 minutes ago, Numero Uno said: The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige. 17 pts from 9 games in fact. Never mind playoff form, that is usually top 2 pushing returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_BCFC Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 We will finish around the 60-62 mark I think. We don’t have the squad to keep the run going and we also aren’t scoring enough from open play. Top half a realistic aim. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Open End Numb Legs Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 Nice to have this thread but I hope we all just enjoy this spell one game at a time. I may be wrong but didn't our last good cup run end with a poor spell afterwards in the league? Even more reason to win in the cup this time and keep the bubble intact. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExiledAjax Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 (edited) 19 minutes ago, daored said: No denying that the fixtures in April are tough, I agree it’s extremely unlikely we’d achieve top six but if we go into those fixtures in form then who knows? Beat Cardiff Saturday then look at the next is all we do and see where it may take us Agreed, agreed. I just think it's so unlikely as to be beyond optimistic to even consider it. Fivethirtyeight are predicting 6th place will be Norwich with 71 points and +14 GD. If that comes true (and they're pretty good at this stuff) then we need another 27 points and improve our GD by +13 in 13 games, 5 of which are games against a current top 6 side. Even carrying on at 1.88 PPG over 13 games is only 24 points - not enough. Then on the goal difference, well over these last ten league games we've improved our GD by +3, over the last 9 it's +5. So generously taking the better of those two sets of games it's an improvement of +0.55 per game. Suggests we might, if we can continue in great form, we might improve it by +7. Given we've been scoring 1 goal a game, including 2 penalties in the last 4 matches I don't see us doing the above. So, if we continue on our current exceptional 9 game form (1.88 PPG and +0.55 GD per game) then we project us to finish on 68 points with +9 GD. That won't be enough. Also, all of the above assumes that none of the teams above us goes on a good run of form. At least one of them probably will, and that will make out job even harder. Edited February 26 by ExiledAjax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCFCGav Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 Just had a quick look at the maths and it’s difficult to say the least. Par for 6th is about 74 points, we have 44. 13 games to play, 30 points needed. 10 wins and three defeats (or 9w 3d 1l). Like the FA Cup, it IS possible. Just unlikely. I’d be happy with 1 out of the 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Popodopolous Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 One game at a time, see where it takes us seems the best way still IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigAl&Toby Posted February 26 Author Report Share Posted February 26 Bollocks to all the Bristolian naysayers. Ok. Some might say realists. In the words of the great man…. Deep in my heart there's a trembling question Still I am sure that the answer, answer's gonna come somehow Out there in the dark, there's a beckoning candle, yeah And while I can think, while I can talk While I can stand, while I can walk While I can dream Oh, please let my dream Come true Right now Let it come true right now Oh yeah So I can stand. I can walk. I can dream. Top 6 finish? Nailed on…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cityexile Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 I think the closest we can get is in to that irritating ‘what if’ territory, the if we got that pen, that pen and finished that chance we would have made it. Top half would be fantastic, given our challenges this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeez Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 Knowing City, we’ll make a run but finish 7th. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ska Junkie Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 We are keeping pace with the top sides which is a positive but we aren't catching them. Looking good for next season, not this one though. Enjoy the ride eh! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said: We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run. Not happening. Are you absolutely sure of that? Because there are only three teams that have equalled or bettered our points tally for the last 8 matches. https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/bristol-city/form-guide/eight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 4 minutes ago, CiderJar said: Are you absolutely sure of that? Because there are only three teams that have equalled or bettered our points tally for the last 8 matches. https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/bristol-city/form-guide/eight Positive https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/daterange/fromdate:2022-Jul-01/todate:2022-Dec-27/type:home-and-away/ In fact we have lost a point! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderJar Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 12 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said: Positive https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/daterange/fromdate:2022-Jul-01/todate:2022-Dec-27/type:home-and-away/ In fact we have lost a point! I see the difficulty here. We've played 9 games since then, and Millwall (for example) have played 10, that could account for a 3 point swing either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDOXO Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said: We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run. Not happening. That’s the spirit! I guess nine games is league games without looking. Anything can happen. We are the in form team. A lot will depend on who in a congested league plays who in the coming weeks and if we stay in form But the likelihood is we will be short. But if we knew none of us would go, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozo Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 (edited) If we were blowing teams away I'd be thinking wow, we're unstoppable and anything is possible. But in truth we've been edging games and I think we're realistically going to draw quite a few still this season, which is still a positive. We could do with a player going on a goalscoring streak like Weimann and Conway have done in the past. At the moment we're working hard for every goal. Edited February 26 by mozo 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmite Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 What will stop us making the top six will be the cup run to Wembley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocking Red Cyril Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 One game at a a time. But really don't see top six happening. Hopefully big cup game not do what it did last time and form went. I just enjoying each game one at a time . Next season with good signings then we might have some hope of play offs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Billy Posted February 26 Report Share Posted February 26 It’s not like Nigel hasn’t managed to get a team on that kind of run before. ️ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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