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Points needed for Top 6 finish

BigAl&Toby

By BigAl&Toby
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daored

daored

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, BigAl&Toby said:

Forget all this bloody are we safe nonsense.

How many are needed for Top 6 finish?

If the stars and they planets remain aligned I reckon we might finish with between 62 and 77.

Might 77 be enough? 

Ever the optimist…… or fool. ?

I really think it’s a possibility - the next three league games are critical for me , IF we can get three wins then on 53 points and game on. Think we have the momentum behind us and the freshness of the two new outfield players. It’s a tall order but certainly not unachievable 

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Taz

Taz

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Posted

Let's see where we are at the end of March/mid April first. Currently a good run from anyone can propel them up the league, whilst a bad run could see trouble.

Momentum is on our side at the moment, and it would be great if we are the one team that usually puts a run together to be in the mix every year, but let's not get all Rovers-esque by thinking we can get the playoffs.

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ExiledAjax

ExiledAjax

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1 minute ago, daored said:

I really think it’s a possibility - the next three league games are critical for me , IF we can get three wins then on 53 points and game on. Think we have the momentum behind us and the freshness of the two new outfield players. It’s a tall order but certainly not unachievable 

Even after winning the next 3 games we'd still need 17 points from 10 games just to get to 70 and have a slim chance of 6th spot.

It's just so unlikely. We basically can't afford to lose or even draw more than 4 games in our last 13 league matches. Take a look at our last 6 games and tell me how you think this is going to go.

5 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run.

Not happening.

Because it turns out that the top 6 are quite good at picking up points!

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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All we can do is keep picking off the teams above us and see where it gets us.

We took Hull and Swansea on Saturday (Swansea playing Rotherham tomorrow, which gives us a game in hand)

Preston next in our sights.  They are the only team currently within 3 points (1 games worth) of us.

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Numero Uno

Numero Uno

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Posted
6 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run.

Not happening.

The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige.

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glynriley

glynriley

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10 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run.

Not happening.

We were 8 behind after the WBA game on Boxing Day, it’s now 9. As you say, not going to happen. 
 

2 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige.

Just 2 points above the drop zone after WBA,now 13. Players and management deserve a lot of credit for that turn around. 

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cidercity1987

cidercity1987

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10 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige.

Yeah of course , we have had play off form for 9 or 10 games but we would have to go at automatic form (more wins less draws) to make up for the lower midtable form before Christmas

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Davefevs

Davefevs

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Just now, glynriley said:

We were 8 behind after the WBA game on Boxing Day, it’s now 9. As you say, not going to happen. 
 

Just 2 points above the drop zone after WBA,now 13. Players and management deserve a lot of credit for that turn around. 

Without getting carried away, our cup run means some teams have played more games than us in that period.  But I still call them “a lose in hand”.  Great believer in points in the bag.

 

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daored

daored

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16 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

Even after winning the next 3 games we'd still need 17 points from 10 games just to get to 70 and have a slim chance of 6th spot.

It's just so unlikely. We basically can't afford to lose or even draw more than 4 games in our last 13 league matches. Take a look at our last 6 games and tell me how you think this is going to go.

Because it turns out that the top 6 are quite good at picking up points!

No denying that the fixtures in April are tough, I agree it’s extremely unlikely we’d achieve top six but if we go into those fixtures in form then who knows? Beat Cardiff Saturday then look at the next is all we do and see where it may take us

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Mr Popodopolous

Mr Popodopolous

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16 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

The key thing is the gap between us and 3rd bottom has increased massively. What it shows is that we have exhibited play off form, nothing better, over our last nine games. However putting some context on that paints a far rosier picture tbf to Nige.

17 pts from 9 games in fact.

Never mind playoff form, that is usually top 2 pushing returns.

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ExiledAjax

ExiledAjax

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, daored said:

No denying that the fixtures in April are tough, I agree it’s extremely unlikely we’d achieve top six but if we go into those fixtures in form then who knows? Beat Cardiff Saturday then look at the next is all we do and see where it may take us

Agreed, agreed. I just think it's so unlikely as to be beyond optimistic to even consider it.

Fivethirtyeight are predicting 6th place will be Norwich with 71 points and +14 GD. If that comes true (and they're pretty good at this stuff) then we need another 27 points and improve our GD by +13 in 13 games, 5 of which are games against a current top 6 side. Even carrying on at 1.88 PPG over 13 games is only 24 points - not enough.

Then on the goal difference, well over these last ten league games we've improved our GD by +3, over the last 9 it's +5. So generously taking the better of those two sets of games it's an improvement of +0.55 per game. Suggests we might, if we can continue in great form, we might improve it by +7. Given we've been scoring 1 goal a game, including 2 penalties in the last 4 matches I don't see us doing the above. 

So, if we continue on our current exceptional 9 game form (1.88 PPG and +0.55 GD per game) then we project us to finish on 68 points with +9 GD. That won't be enough.

Also, all of the above assumes that none of the teams above us goes on a good run of form. At least one of them probably will, and that will make out job even harder.

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BCFCGav

BCFCGav

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Posted

Just had a quick look at the maths and it’s difficult to say the least. Par for 6th is about 74 points, we have 44. 13 games to play, 30 points needed. 10 wins and three defeats (or 9w 3d 1l). Like the FA Cup, it IS possible. Just unlikely.

I’d be happy with 1 out of the 2 ?

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BigAl&Toby

BigAl&Toby

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Bollocks to all the Bristolian naysayers. Ok. Some might say realists. 

In the words of the great man….

Deep in my heart there's a trembling question
Still I am sure that the answer, answer's gonna come somehow
Out there in the dark, there's a beckoning candle, yeah
And while I can think, while I can talk
While I can stand, while I can walk
While I can dream
Oh, please let my dream
Come true
Right now
Let it come true right now
Oh yeah
 

So I can stand. I can walk. I can dream.

Top 6 finish? Nailed on….

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CiderJar

CiderJar

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Posted
2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run.

Not happening.

Are you absolutely sure of that? Because there are only three teams that have equalled or bettered our points tally for the last 8 matches.

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/bristol-city/form-guide/eight

Screenshot_20230226_151234_Chrome.thumb.jpg.eb91aa784678140ee5d4e2591006c99d.jpg

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cidercity1987

cidercity1987

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Posted
4 minutes ago, CiderJar said:

Are you absolutely sure of that? Because there are only three teams that have equalled or bettered our points tally for the last 8 matches.

https://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/bristol-city/form-guide/eight

Screenshot_20230226_151234_Chrome.thumb.jpg.eb91aa784678140ee5d4e2591006c99d.jpg

Positive

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/daterange/fromdate:2022-Jul-01/todate:2022-Dec-27/type:home-and-away/

 

In fact we have lost a point!

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CiderJar

CiderJar

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Posted
12 minutes ago, cidercity1987 said:

Positive

https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-tables/competition:championship/daterange/fromdate:2022-Jul-01/todate:2022-Dec-27/type:home-and-away/

 

In fact we have lost a point!

I see the difficulty here. We've played 9 games since then, and Millwall (for example) have played 10, that could account for a 3 point swing either way.

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REDOXO

REDOXO

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, cidercity1987 said:

We are as many points behind 6th as before we embarked on our 9 game unbeaten run.

Not happening.

That’s the spirit!

I guess nine games is league games without looking. 
 

Anything can happen. We are the in form team. A lot will depend on who in a congested league plays who in the coming weeks and if we stay in form  

But the likelihood is we will be short. But if we knew none of us would go, right?

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mozo

mozo

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Posted (edited)

If we were blowing teams away I'd be thinking wow, we're unstoppable and anything is possible. But in truth we've been edging games and I think we're realistically going to draw quite a few still this season, which is still a positive. 

We could do with a player going on a goalscoring streak like Weimann and Conway have done in the past. At the moment we're working hard for every goal.

Edited by mozo
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