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Assuming he goes


James54De

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1 hour ago, WarksRobin said:

I think we could spend 10% of what we receive for players this window and need to book the remaining profit. If we get it right, it puts us in a much stronger FFP position for the next couple of years.

That might be exactly what we do (being prudent)….but we don’t have to.  That was the question I answered - how much could we spend.  We could probably spend the lot as per my stupid initial scenario! ?

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22 hours ago, Jeez said:

Wolves are in the Prem albeit very near the bottom

I mentioned this. 

20 hours ago, And Its Smith said:

We will get it because he’s worth it.  What Wolves paid for Neves in the championship is irrelevant. Scott will play for England within 5 years so £25m is a fair price for all.  He is THAT good. 

Ok, but if he was rated that highly that he'll be alongside Jude Bellingham surely we'd have bigger suitors coming in than Wolves. 

I know how good he is, but I'm also realistic that when we're facing financial issues and there isn't a bidding war for him it's unlikely that he's going to go to a team fighting relegation for £25m.

If a team like Spurs or Chelsea get involved and they're certain that they want him then we may get asking price, otherwise the board will take less because we need the money and don't have a lot of assets that teams are willing to pay for. 

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40 minutes ago, gl2 said:

Wolves are now reported on bbc gossip to be stepping up talks for Nice midfielder Mario Lemina 10mil ......does this mean Scott interest has ceased?

Different types of player IMO.

Lemina is more of a Joe Williams type. 

They need to update their midfield options as they currently only have 3 players rotating (Neves, Nunes and Moutinho). 
 

I don’t think this ends the Scott interest.

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24 minutes ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

Different types of player IMO.

Lemina is more of a Joe Williams type. 

They need to update their midfield options as they currently only have 3 players rotating (Neves, Nunes and Moutinho). 
 

I don’t think this ends the Scott interest.

Quite, plus Lemina is about 10 years older than Scott. No reason why they wouldn't want both then.

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43 minutes ago, AshtonRobin21 said:

Different types of player IMO.

Lemina is more of a Joe Williams type. 

They need to update their midfield options as they currently only have 3 players rotating (Neves, Nunes and Moutinho). 
 

I don’t think this ends the Scott interest.

I imagine they would see Scott as a potential Moutinho replacement? Still a good player but at 36 he probably doesn't have a huge amount of time left.

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On 11/01/2023 at 17:38, Davefevs said:

Me and MrP will differ here.  Here’s my stab…lots of caveats though!

As it stands I think with the forecast spend for the rest of the season we are just inside FFP boundaries (with covid allowances of an unknown amount spread over the 3 impacted seasons).  So, if we did nothing in this window we’d just about be okay.  That’s my starting point.

This is where it gets a bit more complicated, or rather than complicated, you have to understand what happens to the cost of a signing when they sign and the period of their contract.

Let’s say we get £20m and assume we owe Guernsey Sweet FA.  That’s £20m transfer profit in this year’s accounts.  That means we are now £20m inside the FFP Limits for the cycle ending summer 2023.  It also means that the cycle ending next season (summer 2024) we are miles inside too.

We could go out and buy a £15m player on a 6 month deal and pay them £200k p.w for the rest of this season.  That would eat up the £20m in 6 months and leave us inside FFP still.

But what we would more sensibly do is:

  • get in a few really strong loans at say £20k p.w. each / loan fee £0.5m.  Would cost us £3m.  Whilst we sit on the rest of the money until the summer, keeping our powder dry until we know for sure we are still in this division.
  • buy a few players, say 3 x £3.5m on £15k p.w. On 3.5 Yr deals.  Costs of £0.375m  wages each and £0.5m each in amortisation this season.  £2.625m in total this season, but the next 3 years we’d be committed to £0.75m wages x 3 and £1m amortisation x 3…total £5.25m.  Over the 3.5 yrs those 3 would cost us circa £18m
  • or bit of a mix of the above
  • etc
  • etc

This is why I chuckle a bit when someone says “if we sell Scott for £20m he can spend half of it” (or whatever).  It just doesn’t work like Football Manager led you to believe it did in their game 15 years ago!  It’s all about looking at the total cost of players against projected incomes and budgets over a 3-5 year plan / forecast.

I have some basic spreadsheets that attempt (poorly) to look at the player costs over a period of time.  The football club will have much more complex stuff and ability to do “what-if” scenarios.

So the real answer is - somewhere between some of it and all of it!

Hope the above helps?

@Davefevs I don't really understand how FFP works - I work in an industry where our clients have separate rules for spending on revenue (salary costs, eg) and capital (depreciating assets) - does FFP draw a distinction, or is it one big 'pot'?

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2 hours ago, SecretSam said:

@Davefevs I don't really understand how FFP works - I work in an industry where our clients have separate rules for spending on revenue (salary costs, eg) and capital (depreciating assets) - does FFP draw a distinction, or is it one big 'pot'?

At is simplest it (FFP) is basically money in vs money out.  If more money goes out than comes in, FFP will punish you where the losses are beyond a certain amount.

 

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Just now, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

According to TalkSport Wolves have walked away from a deal for Scott, not being prepared to meet City's valuation. 

As much as a deal could be beneficial to us, I can't help but feel a sense of relief with news that he may stay a bit longer!

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1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Let's hope the League aren't expecting some kind of transfer profit to balance the books...you can't rule that out entirely.

From a footballing perspective, think he is best suited to continue with development here.

The club are within FFP requirements even if we don’t sell this month so all good 

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17 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

The club are within FFP requirements even if we don’t sell this month so all good 

Well I will stick with the official line for now fine- all we can do I guess.

A strict reading of the EFL regs would suggest they habe certain powers and or rights especially with the recent cases and changes...but we'd have heard about it by now surely.

Edited by Mr Popodopolous
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I'm really torn on this.

Scott on his own won't keep us up. If no one is prepared to cough up the reported 20 million plus add on's then of course we don't get any money and can't buy the players needed to stay up.

Let's say we did let him go for 15 million which enabled us to buy the players and keep us up, is that 5/10 million loss going to seem like small change compared to what we would lose if we went down.

It really is a tricky one.

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21 minutes ago, RoystonFoote'snephew said:

According to TalkSport Wolves have walked away from a deal for Scott, not being prepared to meet City's valuation. 

Excellent news (so long as others leave to enable new signings).  

And thank you for listening to Talksport so we don't have to. 

Edited by Merrick's Marvels
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14 minutes ago, And Its Smith said:

Assuming Scott is happy enough to stay with City until we get a bid we are happy with then all is well. If anything, his value will keep increasing 

Or no club is willing to meet our valuation/s, his contract winds down  and he leaves for nothing/compensation like others have done. 

I feels like more clubs are coming around to the idea of not spending huge sums of money anymore and waiting for contracts to end and get players for very little/free.

Tricky one isn't it.

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1 minute ago, Loco Rojo said:

Or no club is willing to meet our valuation/s, his contract winds down  and he leaves for nothing/compensation like others have done. 

I feels like more clubs are coming around to the idea of not spending huge sums of money anymore and waiting for contracts to end and get players for very little/free.

Tricky one isn't it.

That won't happen in Scott's case. Combination of trajectory, age and contract length all things being equal.

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Just now, Loco Rojo said:

Or no club is willing to meet our valuation/s, his contract winds down  and he leaves for nothing/compensation like others have done. 

I feels like more clubs are coming around to the idea of not spending huge sums of money anymore and waiting for contracts to end and get players for very little/free.

Tricky one isn't it.

PL clubs haven’t really stopped spending big fees, and that will be where he ends up, so we ought to be ok. 

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1 minute ago, Loco Rojo said:

Or no club is willing to meet our valuation/s, his contract winds down  and he leaves for nothing/compensation like others have done. 

I feels like more clubs are coming around to the idea of not spending huge sums of money anymore and waiting for contracts to end and get players for very little/free.

Tricky one isn't it.

Well that’ll be another 3.5 years which is fine 

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1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

PL clubs haven’t really stopped spending big fees, and that will be where he ends up, so we ought to be ok. 

They might have on Championship players though or thoroughly reduced anyway- an analysis of where the fees are going would be interesting to see.

Otoh Stoke fans are suggesting £15-20m for Souttar so perhaps not!

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3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

That won't happen in Scott's case. Combination of trajectory, age and contract length all things being equal.

 

3 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

PL clubs haven’t really stopped spending big fees, and that will be where he ends up, so we ought to be ok. 

 

3 minutes ago, Marcus Aurelius said:

Well that’ll be another 3.5 years which is fine 

Thanks chaps. I feel like i have my own support group ? (i'm not getting nervous, honest).

 

 

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