ExiledAjax Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Bristol Rob said: At this stage, they've probably lumped the following in to the 'odds generator' toolset. Last 12 games of last season Players sold in the last window Players signed in the last window and how effective they've been since Players likely to be sold in the summer Amount of money that a club could spend on new signings Amount of money that has previously been wagered on any given side so they understand their potential liability And then tweaked it a bit to try and make the odds look more appealing so that people like ourselves think.... 'Hmm, 40/1 - I like the sound of that as £20 would pay for my season ticket and some of my pre-match booze.... if we win the league' - before we part with our pocket money and never see a penny back. Your final paragraph being the most important factor of course. The bookies only motivation is making money. The "tweak" to the odds given reflect that and that alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East End Old Boy Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 3 hours ago, NcnsBcfc said: Same odds as Plymouth? Hmm.... they really don't rate us do they? Plymouth 100/1 with William Hill 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo123 Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Charlie BCFC said: Them and Birmingham who have a points deduction. Sheffield Wednesday don’t look that convincing, QPR and Plymouth are same odds as us. Then you have Ipswich being 6th favourite which screams of (what promoted team is most likely to do a Sunderland?) Sheffield Wednesday got 3 less points than we did in our promotion season in a stronger league, they'll be fine with sensible recruitment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Super Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 Not sure where these odds have come from. The ones that i have seen have Plymouth at double our price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonBristolian Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 I think what that tells me is that there quite a few customers putting money on that I suspect may not prove profitable for them. I totally get why clubs with more recent Premier League history are more fancied by neutrals but West Brom, Stoke, Wednesday, Hull, Birmingham and Cardiff feel over-fancied compared to the actual evidence and I think there are big questions around how well the other relegated and promoted clubs will actually do... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo123 Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Bristol Rob said: At this stage, they've probably lumped the following in to the 'odds generator' toolset. Last 12 games of last season Players sold in the last window Players signed in the last window and how effective they've been since Players likely to be sold in the summer Amount of money that a club could spend on new signings Amount of money that has previously been wagered on any given side so they understand their potential liability And then tweaked it a bit to try and make the odds look more appealing so that people like ourselves think.... 'Hmm, 40/1 - I like the sound of that as £20 would pay for my season ticket and some of my pre-match booze.... if we win the league' - before we part with our pocket money and never see a penny back. I said on here yesterday, but I work for a bookmarkers in a department that calculate odds (albeit not football). Football odds are calculated by underlying data, so things like expected goals and the amount of chances each team give up per game compared with the amount they create each game. The odds for us being low are mainly due to our underlying data being not particularly great, and I'm sure coupled in with the fact that they'd expect us to sell our best player as we often do. Once we confirm a few signings (especially if they're good ones on paper, like Joe Bryan) I imagine the odds will slash slightly. I'm not sure I agree that we should be less fancied than teams like Cardiff, but as things stand there's absolutely nothing factual for the bookies to suggest that we'll do better next season than we did last, so that's why the odds are what they are for now. Edited May 31, 2023 by Jimbo123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, Jimbo123 said: Sheffield Wednesday got 3 less points than we did in our promotion season in a stronger league, they'll be fine with sensible recruitment. They have some serious recruitment to do then imho, they have quite an aging squad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo123 Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Davefevs said: They have some serious recruitment to do then imho, they have quite an aging squad. I agree mate, but they have quite a few out of contract, they listed them on Sky after the PO final so it should be easy for them to clear the decks. I imagine they'll survive comfortably, Chansiri has spoken out already and said that he'll be backing them this summer. That said, I would currently fancy us to finish above them. But there's a reason I lose a lot of money football betting, and the bookmakers make tens of millions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coxy27 Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 All the odds are way too short. I think we are too short at 40/1 to win the league - this isn't promotion it's winning the league... But everyone's way too short. 80/1 Rotherham even, in reality them winning the league would be an absolute miracle, hundreds if not thousands to 1. However, what I guess you can take from it is that we are seen as roughly in the same ballpark as Plymouth... Which seems harsh. Overall - odds look dreadful on basically everyone (as they will be from a bookie this early with loads of margin added) so keep your money. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo123 Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Coxy27 said: All the odds are way too short. I think we are too short at 40/1 to win the league - this isn't promotion it's winning the league... But everyone's way too short. 80/1 Rotherham even, in reality them winning the league would be an absolute miracle, hundreds if not thousands to 1. However, what I guess you can take from it is that we are seen as roughly in the same ballpark as Plymouth... Which seems harsh. Overall - odds look dreadful on basically everyone (as they will be from a bookie this early with loads of margin added) so keep your money. You'll never get odds of 5,000/1 again like Leicester were - the bookies got stung so badly by that, just by Leicester fans who back it as a laugh or do it as a yearly tradition etc. I know someone who sticks £500 on City to win the league every year, I said to him before last season give me the £500 and I'll take the bet on, I'd be happy to do the same next season too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marcofisher Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 5 hours ago, OneTeamInBristol said: Can't see Leicester being that high when half their squad clears off. They will be offloading players like Barnes and Maddison for as much as we get for Scott, or more! Nice £80mil kitty plus parachute payments. I think they are understandably favourites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OneTeamInBristol Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, marcofisher said: They will be offloading players like Barnes and Maddison for as much as we get for Scott, or more! Nice £80mil kitty plus parachute payments. I think they are understandably favourites. They will do but replacing them is easier said than done. Look at Forest, signed about 30 players and it very nearly backfired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marcofisher Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 minute ago, OneTeamInBristol said: They will do but replacing them is easier said than done. Look at Forest, signed about 30 players and it very nearly backfired. Agreed it is very different, but I think the situations are very different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chinapig Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 1 hour ago, marcofisher said: They will be offloading players like Barnes and Maddison for as much as we get for Scott, or more! Nice £80mil kitty plus parachute payments. I think they are understandably favourites. Though the reportedly have to pay a staggering £19m a quarter to repay a loan from Macquarie to 2025/26 so their parachute payments are already spent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cockneydave Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 Well i reckon our manager has got things right against all the odds in my opinion .City is a good bet for the top 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelts Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 8 hours ago, Davefevs said: It’s always the way….probably get more bets on them that they do on us, and bookies are gonna offer less attractive odds for them than they will for us. Undoubtedly Ipswich fans are doing “back early as the price will be lower going forwards” and they have a big fan base plus history. I fancy em to do quite well this season and carry on from last season . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cidercity1987 Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 5 hours ago, Jimbo123 said: I said on here yesterday, but I work for a bookmarkers in a department that calculate odds (albeit not football). Football odds are calculated by underlying data, so things like expected goals and the amount of chances each team give up per game compared with the amount they create each game. The odds for us being low are mainly due to our underlying data being not particularly great, and I'm sure coupled in with the fact that they'd expect us to sell our best player as we often do. Once we confirm a few signings (especially if they're good ones on paper, like Joe Bryan) I imagine the odds will slash slightly. I'm not sure I agree that we should be less fancied than teams like Cardiff, but as things stand there's absolutely nothing factual for the bookies to suggest that we'll do better next season than we did last, so that's why the odds are what they are for now. Are you saying Cardiff, Birmingham, Hull underlying data is better than ours? I'm sure they are not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shelts Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 Pretty much guess work at the moment . I saw Mr Wells up the golf club and he thinks we can make playoffs ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glynriley Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, shelts said: Pretty much guess work at the moment . I saw Mr Wells up the golf club and he thinks we can make playoffs ! Not this Mr Wells…? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_BCFC Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 We are 50-1 at a few places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppyDAZE Posted May 31, 2023 Report Share Posted May 31, 2023 That'll change after we win our first 6 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie BCFC Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 17 hours ago, Jimbo123 said: Sheffield Wednesday got 3 less points than we did in our promotion season in a stronger league, they'll be fine with sensible recruitment. Plymouth got 2 more points than our promotion season and are same odds as us when Wednesday are shorter? I don’t see Wednesday as too different to when they went down tbh, like you said with sensible recruitment they should be ok but that isn’t a guarentee under the Chansiri’s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southport Red Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 16 hours ago, chinapig said: Though the reportedly have to pay a staggering £19m a quarter to repay a loan from Macquarie to 2025/26 so their parachute payments are already spent. Yes, I read that Leicester’s parachute payments would be swallowed up servicing loans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo123 Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 13 hours ago, cidercity1987 said: Are you saying Cardiff, Birmingham, Hull underlying data is better than ours? I'm sure they are not Cardiff's is marginally, Birmingham and Hull I'd have to look but probably similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marcofisher Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 17 hours ago, chinapig said: Though the reportedly have to pay a staggering £19m a quarter to repay a loan from Macquarie to 2025/26 so their parachute payments are already spent. Wow, didn't know that. That certainly offsets the Barnes/Maddison money somewhat then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivs Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 19 hours ago, Jimbo123 said: You'll never get odds of 5,000/1 again like Leicester were - the bookies got stung so badly by that, just by Leicester fans who back it as a laugh or do it as a yearly tradition etc. I know someone who sticks £500 on City to win the league every year, I said to him before last season give me the £500 and I'll take the bet on, I'd be happy to do the same next season too Why didn't you offer him a bet at £400? He saves £100 and you gain £400. Everyone's a winner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 When do bookies ever get the odds that are realistic? How can newly promoted Ipswich be 14-1 and and an established Championship club like City be 40-1? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davefevs Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, Robbored said: When do bookies ever get the odds that are realistic? How can newly promoted Ipswich be 14-1 and and an established Championship club like City be 40-1? They don’t need to be realistic, their aim is to make money. They do that in their “margins”. I know you know that, but here’s a good link for others: https://www.newbettingoffers.co.uk/how-to-calculate-football-betting-margins Even in things like Roulette, paying out 32x still has a margin because of zero, meaning there are 33 numbers not just 1-32, which means they make a 3.125% margin on every spin on average. I believe some wheels in some casinos also have a double zero (00), meaning they pay out 32x on 34 numbers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leveller Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, Robbored said: When do bookies ever get the odds that are realistic? How can newly promoted Ipswich be 14-1 and and an established Championship club like City be 40-1? We’d have said the same about Sunderland twelve months ago and their promotion season was considerably less impressive than Ipswich’s. In the event they massively outperformed us this year. We seem to drift along in a mid table area, never threatening to change dramatically. Compare also Cardiff, whose fortunes vary wildly from year to year. You can understand people thinking we’ll never surprise them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbored Posted June 1, 2023 Report Share Posted June 1, 2023 42 minutes ago, Leveller said: We seem to drift along in a mid table area, never threatening to change dramatically. Compare also Cardiff, whose fortunes vary wildly from year to year. You can understand people thinking we’ll never surprise them. Fair point but nice odds for any City fan who fancies a flutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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