Relegation all but guaranteed?

[Merrick's Marvels]

20 minutes ago, cidered abroad said:

Don't kid yourself. Just remember that City were 8th in the First Division in October 1979 and still got relegated at end of April.

Once a team starts sliding down it's more difficult to escape than an Olympic ice run.

Very true. We might need to call on Nigel Pearson again! 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Merrick's Marvels

[SomeRandomBristolian]

Its only November/ December tomorrow, one or two of the teams at the bottom could put a bit of a run together. QPR are not far off Huddersfield. Sheffield Wednesday got a point against Leicester last night. Plenty of turns to come yet I feel. The Championship is a strange but exciting league where on their day anyone, could beat anyone. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Birmimgham and maybe even more so Norwich I wonder about a bit.

The away form of the latter the first 2 games aside is really poor and they concede a lot of goals on the road especially.

Birmingham slid into trouble under Zola after he replaced a hard done  by Rowett. They surely have a better resourced squad and better owners now but hmm..

Coventry I think are battling and or playing their way out of it, Millwall though could they slide into the scrap.

Preston have been outperforming all season but after one of the best starts in their history could they go on a prolonged slump. 19 pts from 7 becoming 20 from 8 gives a good margin for error though.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[ExiledAjax]

Sheff Wed currently have 7 points. To get to safety they likely need about 46 (possibly 48 if Plymouth and Huddersfield continue their current points return). They've got 28 games left in which to get those remaining 39 or so points.

So they need to go from 0.39 points per game (7/18) to 1.39 points per game (39/28). That is a massive increase in form. For perspective, 1 point per game is normally what a team in about 20th place achieves. 2 points per game is top 6 form. So that's roughly the level of improvement they need - they need to transform from a dreadful side to a brilliant side, and they need to do that now, overnight, immediately. Every game from now where they get less than a win means they need a higher and higher points per game from their remaining games. 

This also assumes that the teams currently just outside the relegation zone do not improve their own form. That is outside of Sheff Wed's control.

Of course it is possible, but it is so improbable.

When saying "team X is only 4 points from safety/playoffs/promotion" people often neglect to mention that there are 23 other teams in the division, all of whom share the 36 points on offer in each round of games. Overtaking a team 4 points above you doesn't mean you need to get 4 more points, it means you need to get 4 points more than that team gets in the succeeding games. You also need the other teams around you to fail to get the points needed to preserve or improve their relative position in the table. 

It is going to be hard for QPR to get clear, very hard for Rotherham, and nigh on impossible for Sheff Wed.

Edited November 30, 2023 by ExiledAjax

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

5 hours ago, Sir Geoff said:

Beat Wednesday by a solitary goal after they were reduced to ten men

In fairness Watford, West Brom, Southampton, Preston, Cardiff and Ipswich have only beaten Weds by a solitary goal and Middlesbrough and Leeds could only draw with them.

[SomeRandomBristolian]

16 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Birmimgham and maybe even more so Norwich I wonder about a bit.

The away form of the latter the first 2 games aside is really poor and they concede a lot of goals on the road especially.

Birmingham slid into trouble under Zola after he replaced a hard done  by Rowett. They surely have a better resourced squad and better owners now but hmm..

Coventry I think are battling and or playing their way out of it, Millwall though could they slide into the scrap.

Preston have been outperforming all season but after one of the best starts in their history could they go on a prolonged slump. 19 pts from 7 becoming 20 from 8 gives a good margin for error though.

Yea really good points. I was wondering about Norwich too as they seem to be struggling now the premier league money is starting to run out. Millwall another one that really could be dragged into it too.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan said:

In fairness Watford, West Brom, Southampton, Preston, Cardiff and Ipswich have only beaten Weds by a solitary goal and Middlesbrough and Leeds could only draw with them.

Leicester too, drew there last night.

[Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan]

Looking at the table this time last season the bottom 3 certainly had far more points. West Brom, Wigan and Huddersfield had all accumulated more points than QPR have this season.

Last Boxing Day we were only 2 points above the drop zone with 27 points.

Saying that QPR were 7th and Reading were midtable. As we showed ourselves in Jan/Feb it takes a few good results to turn your season around and pull you away from the relegation zone so none of the teams are out of it yet. Likewise a bad run and you’re back in the shit.

 

Edited November 30, 2023 by Peter O Hanraha-hanrahan

[PHILINFRANCE]

5 hours ago, ralphindevon said:

Didn't Millwall go from the relegation zone at Xmas to finish in the play offs a few years ago? 

Not forgetting Sunderland under Roy Keane and, a little more recently, Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest.

[ExiledAjax]

9 minutes ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

Not forgetting Sunderland under Roy Keane and, a little more recently, Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest.

All notable and memorable due to being the exceptions.

No one remembers the teams that have 20 points at Christmas and go on to finish on 40 and go down, but they are far more common than those that rocket up the table.

[Mr Popodopolous]

Coventry albeit play off final losers had 1 win and 7 points from 10 games last year.

Albeit 3 games in hand due to their pitch issues.

Middlesbrough certainly begin poorly pre Carrick last season too. 10 from 11 or 13 from 14 depending on how you want to look at it.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[ralphindevon]

43 minutes ago, PHILINFRANCE said:

Not forgetting Sunderland under Roy Keane and, a little more recently, Steve Cooper’s Nottingham Forest.

I’ve just looked it up, Millwall went from the relegation zone at Christmas and just missed out on the playoffs by 2 points, finishing 8th.

Forest did Indeed have a dreadful start and were bottom and in all kinds of trouble until Cooper came along. However,  I think by Christmas they were already up to 8th

[FNQ]

5 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I don’t believe there is anyone in the current Academy that is likely to breakthrough in the next 12 months (2 windows) like Alex did for us.  Alex instantly made an impact and was influencing games pretty much from the start of his first team career.

Therefore we will have to buy in players.

Agree with comments on the current academy list and at the moment Liam would rather go with seven on the bench rather than give false hope for a couple of them to even gain first team match-day experience.
If JL really thinks that we’re that close then maybe two or three quality loan additions in January should be enough to supplement this squad and finish the job? 
In realty though, we’ll likely be pestering Oxford for one or two of their favourites with fingers crossed that they turn out to be immediate Mark Sykes type successes in the Championship as opposed to Kane Wilson type failures….

[chinapig]

6 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

But we're maxed out on the wage budget. Isn't that what Pearson was told (bar a little room for a short term, out of contract signing to cover for injuries) ?

He wasn't told porkies, was he? 

Were we told porkies, too?

Or has the budget been magically re-adjusted in the last couple of weeks? 

Always apply the Paxman 'why is this lying barsteward lying to me?' approach.

It was always obvious that the nest egg was being kept for the next man. The last thing they wanted was to let Nigel spend a bit of money because the risk was that he might succeed. They couldn't have that could they?

[Leaning To One Side]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I don’t believe there is anyone in the current Academy that is likely to breakthrough in the next 12 months (2 windows) like Alex did for us.  Alex instantly made an impact and was influencing games pretty much from the start of his first team career.

Therefore we will have to buy in players.

Anyone know how the two other highly rated kids we got from Guernsey are doing (was it Acey and Ap Sion), they seem to have fallen off the radar

[chinapig]

6 hours ago, Davefevs said:

I don’t believe there is anyone in the current Academy that is likely to breakthrough in the next 12 months (2 windows) like Alex did for us.  Alex instantly made an impact and was influencing games pretty much from the start of his first team career.

Therefore we will have to buy in players.

But Steve apparently thinks that we can raise £25m a year from selling a never ending supply of academy gems so we can compete in the Championship.

[headhunter]

20 hours ago, Eddie Hitler said:

I wouldn't write QPR off, they persisted longer than they should have done with Gareth Ainsworth because he was a popular player and had done well in League 1 but the performances were terrible, reminiscent of when we had Tins as manager (that isn't a criticism of his ability in his current role).

They have gone for a European manager, the team has noticeably improved and they won their last game, the first win at home for ages.

Can we give this criticism of Tins as a manager a rest.

In his first season [04/05] in charge he missed the play offs by a point and, for me, might have got us over the line had he not had Keith Millen foisted on him by Lansdown. An experienced head alongside might have made all the difference.

OK, the start of 05/06 was poor culminating in the 1-7 at Swansea but others have kept their job since for worse runs than 1-3-4 from the first or any run of 8 games.

[DaveInSA]

19 hours ago, Merrick's Marvels said:

But we're maxed out on the wage budget. Isn't that what Pearson was told (bar a little room for a short term, out of contract signing to cover for injuries) ?

He wasn't told porkies, was he? 

Were we told porkies, too?

Or has the budget been magically re-adjusted in the last couple of weeks? 

The budget will have changed based on football making more.

[haggis_farewell]

Brother in law is a QPR fan so have a better read on what they are doing as a club and likely prospects.

The fans are pleased about the appointment of Ciufentes and feel he is bringing more of the style they want back into the club, but they are all concerned about the lack of goals in the team. Before the Stoke game they'd not scored more than 1 in a match in a long time. Games go by and they rely on something out of nowhere - from someone like Chair - to make an impact. Willock was completely frozen out by Ainsworth and is working his way back into fitness, but questions about his application and interest levels. They are also vulnerable at the back and a couple of injuries (to key players like Chair, Willock, Field or Dykes) would significantly weaken them as there are no real options from the bench. Set pieces are a big issue and a lack of goals across the squad. General feeling is if they go 1-0 down, the game may be done. 

In terms of money the pot is completely empty and FFP is still a real concern for them, so no money to invest in the team. BIL is convinced they'll go down: with a 6 point gap to safety still I think it will be challenging for them to bridge it particularly if/when other teams around start picking up points. Certainly the team they have now is likely to be the team for the rest of the season, it doesn't seem there is much scope to strengthen it further.

At this moment in time QPR fans would see survival as a massive result. 

Silver lining for me is wife's cousin is a big Wigan fan so they've all had a go about little old Bristol City compared to their mighty 'former PL' clubs. It's all gone a bit quiet now...

[Davefevs]

21 minutes ago, DaveInSA said:

The budget will have changed based on football making more.

Out of interest, what has “football made more of” since the end of the window, to release some budget?

 

12 minutes ago, haggis_farewell said:

Brother in law is a QPR fan so have a better read on what they are doing as a club and likely prospects.

The fans are pleased about the appointment of Ciufentes and feel he is bringing more of the style they want back into the club, but they are all concerned about the lack of goals in the team. Before the Stoke game they'd not scored more than 1 in a match in a long time. Games go by and they rely on something out of nowhere - from someone like Chair - to make an impact. Willock was completely frozen out by Ainsworth and is working his way back into fitness, but questions about his application and interest levels. They are also vulnerable at the back and a couple of injuries (to key players like Chair, Willock, Field or Dykes) would significantly weaken them as there are no real options from the bench. Set pieces are a big issue and a lack of goals across the squad. General feeling is if they go 1-0 down, the game may be done. 

In terms of money the pot is completely empty and FFP is still a real concern for them, so no money to invest in the team. BIL is convinced they'll go down: with a 6 point gap to safety still I think it will be challenging for them to bridge it particularly if/when other teams around start picking up points. Certainly the team they have now is likely to be the team for the rest of the season, it doesn't seem there is much scope to strengthen it further.

At this moment in time QPR fans would see survival as a massive result. 

Silver lining for me is wife's cousin is a big Wigan fan so they've all had a go about little old Bristol City compared to their mighty 'former PL' clubs. It's all gone a bit quiet now...

I wonder whether a cheeky attempt to prise Sinclair Armstrong off of them would be met with anything other than “eff off”.

He’s got that missing ingredient for me.  Semenyo like, a little less a bag of tricks than Antoine, but a bully physically.

Probably beyond us, but if they need someone to generate some funds, he’s the one for me.  We aren’t gonna get Chair.

I’d be looking closely at Field too.  If QPR go down or are adrift in January, I’d be seeing if we could bring this forward.  Contract expires this summer, but they hold a year-option.

[BCFC31]

Surly we should sign illas chair if qpr go down! Sort of signings we need to make if we want to get premier leauge football that willock or even Smyth would come here aswell surely. Cheeky bid for Fred onyedinma wouldn't go a miss either seems surplus at Luton and had always looked a  class tricky pacey winger when ever watching him.

[Davefevs]

13 minutes ago, BCFC31 said:

Surly we should sign illas chair if qpr go down! Sort of signings we need to make if we want to get premier leauge football that willock or even Smyth would come here aswell surely. Cheeky bid for Fred onyedinma wouldn't go a miss either seems surplus at Luton and had always looked a  class tricky pacey winger when ever watching him.

Chair and Willock we’d likely be well down the pecking order.  Armstrong too.  Smyth only signed in the summer and he’s not as good as Sykes imho.  He had a bit of a one-off v Pring / us.

[Son of Fred]

22 hours ago, Robbored said:

Spot on Graham. 

I can only assume that the hierarchy at City are overestimating the quality of the current squad. Whether that’s a deliberate policy or they really can’t see the wood for the trees is a moot point.

 

Let's hope it's conscious...

[redkev]

On 30/11/2023 at 10:22, Robin101 said:

Nah, not for us.

Wednesday, Rotherham and QPR look cut off already. Can’t remember the Championship relegation places having such a solidified look at this point in the season before.

Wednesday must surely have the lowest points total for this point of a season for any team in years and years. Even if they got a decent point last night, they’d have to go on a great run of form pretty much to the end of the season to catch 21st.

QPR been consistently one of the worst teams/worst team for 12 months now. 

Rotherham always swimming against the tide somewhat at this level.

Six points clearly not an impossible ask to make up over best part of 30 games, but would anyone be willing to bet it won’t be these three sides relegated?

Let’s see who calls for warnock that usually gets someone out of the mire 

[DaveInSA]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Out of interest, what has “football made more of” since the end of the window, to release some budget?

 

I wonder whether a cheeky attempt to prise Sinclair Armstrong off of them would be met with anything other than “eff off”.

He’s got that missing ingredient for me.  Semenyo like, a little less a bag of tricks than Antoine, but a bully physically.

Probably beyond us, but if they need someone to generate some funds, he’s the one for me.  We aren’t gonna get Chair.

I’d be looking closely at Field too.  If QPR go down or are adrift in January, I’d be seeing if we could bring this forward.  Contract expires this summer, but they hold a year-option.

Tongue in cheek Fevs. 

Maybe we sold an additional curry goat last week. Clubs gets probably 20p. 

Which might buy us a second hand subbuteo forward.

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, DaveInSA said:

Tongue in cheek Fevs. 

Maybe we sold an additional curry goat last week. Clubs gets probably 20p. 

Which might buy us a second hand subbuteo forward.

A headless centre-forward?

[Lanterne Rouge]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

A headless centre-forward?

Nah. A goalkeeper with no arms.

[Sheltons Army]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

A headless centre-forward?

A head yes , but 3’6 , half a body , and airfix blob for legs 

[Sheltons Army]

I had whole sides of ‘Steve Galliers’ @Davefevs  

[Davefevs]

Just now, Sheltons Army said:

A head yes , but 3’6 , half a body , and airfix blob for legs 

That was my Norwich player…Mick Maguire.  He was short, so as the glue gradually melted away the legs he became more and more like MM in stature.