FBC POD - Norwich [H] the verdict ..... we have to accept that we are a work in progress

[Davefevs]

33 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

We’re better in possession than we were under Pearson, we kept trying to rush it forward but now we’re keeping and (GOD FORBID!!!) play it sideways to keep chances alive and create higher quality chances

 

Hernandez had one shot off the post but other than that not a lot else, we had a Knight header well saved, two Conway chances and Sykes narrowly wide. Middlesbrough scoreline flattered, Vyner own goal a freak and we had many more chances with Conway and Mehmeti coming to mind

 

Again Middlesbrough we limited well other than a mad 5 minute period, Southampton had chances but O’Leary not massively tested a hell of a strike with their right backs weaker foot was the difference 

 

Vyner freak own goal v Boro, Tanner caught on the ball v Boro, a lot of people mentioned Weimann yesterday for their first and Vyner completely got the wrong side of Idah for the winner

This is your perception.

Whether you believe in data or not from Wyscout.

Our average xG this season is 1.340

Under LM is is 1.345 that’s 0.005 better, a 1-in-200 chance better.

Ah, but you may argue the chances are better, ie better quality.

Based on “big chances” (xG greater than 0.200)

Under LM we have had 8 big chances in 4 games (2 pg) - scoring 4 goals

Pre-LM we had 31 big chances in 15 league games (2 pg) - scoring 16 goals

++++++++++

I do keep saying that there are some differences in how we are playing but added together they are not having a material impact on the overall outcomes because some of the differences are + and some are -..

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, Charlie BCFC said:

I’ll list them:

- We look better in possession

- We’ve created better chances than the opposition in 3 of the 4 games and the only one being Southampton where they wouldn’t count Conway’s big chance when he tried to round the keeper

- Beat Middlesbrough who are one of the form teams in the league

- First half of Southampton was the best we’ve played for a while 

- Out of possession structure for the most part been very good, only things that have let us down is player mistakes

 

We need to be more clinical and better in second halves but that’s something to work on

 

You're really scraping the barrel there mate.

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, Charlie BCFC said:

Hernandez had one shot off the post but other than that not a lot else

Did you miss the one on one chance that Barnes had that he should have scored? Or are you deliberately not including that? Did you miss the two goals they scored too? 

[Galley is our king]

8 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Did you miss the one on one chance that Barnes had that he should have scored? Or are you deliberately not including that? Did you miss the two goals they scored too? 

Or the shot that missed the bar by an inch or 2, just before they hit the post?

[O'Garlandinho]

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

@NcnsBcfc

stats taken from before Sunday’s game.

Taking each circled but in turn:

General Passing:

Volume of passing:

Grey bars - He generally makes more passes than his peers (Champ FBs), as almost all grey bars are past the mid-point.  The circled but shows the actual numbers made, e.g. 40.9 passes per 90 mins.

Passing Accuracy:

Blue bars - he is generally more accurate than his peers. You can see in the blue circles his % accuracy.  His long passes at 59% is one of the best in the Champ!

Passing Breakdown:

4% of his passes are crosses vs 6% for his peers.

19% of his passes are creative vs 21% for his peers.

78% of his passes are simple / general vs 73% for his peers.  Therefore he errs on the safer pass than his peers.

Pass Direction:

He makes 36% of passes forward (35% peers)

He makes 43% lateral (46% peers)

He makes 20% back (19% peers)

Its pretty borderline, but he is not dissimilar to his peers.

For every Cafu there’s a Gary Neville!!!

George is very slightly safe.  But in being safe he keeps the ball better than his peers.

Ball at his Feet:

Top Right, I didn’t circle, but basic summary, he’ll run with the ball into space, but tends not to take his opponent on.

I suspect some of this might surprise you a bit.

Hi, are his peers the other defenders in this case? As I’d expect them to naturally have more forward passes than other positions.

[Davefevs]

6 minutes ago, O'Garlandinho said:

Hi, are his peers the other defenders in this case? As I’d expect them to naturally have more forward passes than other positions.

His peers are the other 140 Championship players who’ve played at full-back this season.  So the comparison is as fair a like-for-like as possible.

You’ll see in the bottom a team style chart too:

This is to help you get a feel for whether they play for a passing or a direct side and whether they press heavy or not.

I do each viz by the following positions:

• Goalkeepers
• Full-Backs (inc WBs)
• Centre-Backs
• Centre-Midfielders
• Wide and Attacking Midfielders
• Forwards

 

[Charlie BCFC]

50 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Did you miss the one on one chance that Barnes had that he should have scored? Or are you deliberately not including that? Did you miss the two goals they scored too? 

Do you mean the one that was flagged for offside? Tanners own goal doesn’t really go down as a chance but I guess it was quite well worked in the build up

[Charlie BCFC]

43 minutes ago, Galley is our king said:

Or the shot that missed the bar by an inch or 2, just before they hit the post?

Can’t recall that but I’d have missed more of ours aswell though as we had more shots, more on target and a higher xG. On the balance of play, we definitely had more 

[Charlie BCFC]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

This is your perception.

Whether you believe in data or not from Wyscout.

Our average xG this season is 1.340

Under LM is is 1.345 that’s 0.005 better, a 1-in-200 chance better.

Ah, but you may argue the chances are better, ie better quality.

Based on “big chances” (xG greater than 0.200)

Under LM we have had 8 big chances in 4 games (2 pg) - scoring 4 goals

Pre-LM we had 31 big chances in 15 league games (2 pg) - scoring 16 goals

++++++++++

I do keep saying that there are some differences in how we are playing but added together they are not having a material impact on the overall outcomes because some of the differences are + and some are -..

So we create higher quality chances? Thanks

[Garland-sweden]

Nigel had a plan, he said it will take thre seasons. He got sacked before 2,5 seasons. Nothing against Manning but he is a manager from leauge one. To compare him with NP, he is not the finished article. Sack NP and think we will reach top six is more than silly. The ego in boardrom is to high. This season is over for me, we had a go in the team and fans. Think NP did a good job with an injuried squad. Bad taste in my mouth when he was sacked after Cardiff game, 10-11 players injuried that game. 

[Charlie BCFC]

9 minutes ago, Garland-sweden said:

Nigel had a plan, he said it will take thre seasons. He got sacked before 2,5 seasons. Nothing against Manning but he is a manager from leauge one. To compare him with NP, he is not the finished article. Sack NP and think we will reach top six is more than silly. The ego in boardrom is to high. This season is over for me, we had a go in the team and fans. Think NP did a good job with an injuried squad. Bad taste in my mouth when he was sacked after Cardiff game, 10-11 players injuried that game. 

It was poor timing for me and harsh but we have to move on whilst thanking Nige for the foundations he’s put in place. Do think it’s harsh to emphasise on the league he comes from as anyone has to start somewhere, there are some examples of lower league managers succeeding in this league in the last couple of years (after all it’s probably what attracted the Lansdown’s to this appointment)

[W-S-M Seagull]

40 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

Do you mean the one that was flagged for offside? Tanners own goal doesn’t really go down as a chance but I guess it was quite well worked in the build up

The one on one where he should of scored that wasn't flagged for offside. 

[Mr Popodopolous]

Q for any of the Podcasters who maybe reading.

I listened to some of the Podcast yesterday so apologies if already covered.

The Work in Progress vs the Booing at the end and indeed the mini exodus when the Norwich winner went in.

Doesn't sound like there will be much patience here does it?

[W-S-M Seagull]

18 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

It was poor timing for me and harsh but we have to move on whilst thanking Nige for the foundations he’s put in place. Do think it’s harsh to emphasise on the league he comes from as anyone has to start somewhere, there are some examples of lower league managers succeeding in this league in the last couple of years (after all it’s probably what attracted the Lansdown’s to this appointment)

Also a large number of lower league managers failing in this league the last couple of years. You just seem to gloss over anything that doesn't fit your narrative. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Q for any of the Podcasters who maybe reading.

I listened to some of the Podcast yesterday so apologies if already covered.

The Work in Progress vs the Booing at the end and indeed the mini exodus when the Norwich winner went in.

Doesn't sound like there will be much patience here does it?

For me, I'd have expected us to beat QPR and Norwich under NP. For balance I'm not sure we would have beaten Boro. NP seemed to do well when up against Russell Martin so we may have got something against Soton. 

Thats the reason why there is no patience from me for a work in progress. Why should I accept lesser results? What's the point in that? 

[Galley is our king]

1 minute ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

For me, I'd have expected us to beat QPR and Norwich under NP. For balance I'm not sure we would have beaten Boro. NP seemed to do well when up against Russell Martin so we may have got something against Soton. 

Thats the reason why there is no patience from me for a work in progress. Why should I accept lesser results? What's the point in that? 

Why do we have "work in progress" when we have a top 6 squad?

[Charlie BCFC]

16 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Also a large number of lower league managers failing in this league the last couple of years. You just seem to gloss over anything that doesn't fit your narrative. 

Obviously but the best examples are McKenna and Edwards, Edwards not managed above league 2 before last season but took Luton up to the prem and McKenna doing as well as he has in his first managerial gig. Also the manager with our highest league finish since we last finished in the playoffs? Came from League 1.

11 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

For me, I'd have expected us to beat QPR and Norwich under NP. For balance I'm not sure we would have beaten Boro. NP seemed to do well when up against Russell Martin so we may have got something against Soton. 

Thats the reason why there is no patience from me for a work in progress. Why should I accept lesser results? What's the point in that? 

Actually agree regarding Norwich but don’t with QPR, with their new manager bounce I think we’d have lost. Also Pearson has lost 3 and drawn once when he’s faced Russell Martin in the league, I think we would’ve lost by more but guess we’ll never know

[Engvall’s Splinter]

38 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

It was poor timing for me and harsh but we have to move on whilst thanking Nige for the foundations he’s put in place. Do think it’s harsh to emphasise on the league he comes from as anyone has to start somewhere, there are some examples of lower league managers succeeding in this league in the last couple of years (after all it’s probably what attracted the Lansdown’s to this appointment)

This is the thing, Chaz - I think those “foundations” will need to be ripped up and started again if we are to change the way we play. By that I mean a number of new signings in January/Summer. Then we drop back in to the “we need time to bed the new guys in” etc etc mould. 

[W-S-M Seagull]

3 hours ago, Charlie BCFC said:

We’re better in possession than we were under Pearson, we kept trying to rush it forward but now we’re keeping and (GOD FORBID!!!) 

I've rewatched the 1st half (I'll sleep very well tonight now) 

And what I've noticed is that once again you are talking rubbish. There was PLENTY of occasions where we just booted it forward or "rush it forward" as you would describe it. Lost possesion plenty of times by doing that. So to suggest we are not doing that is complete bs. 

[Engvall’s Splinter]

5 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

Obviously but the best examples are McKenna and Edwards, Edwards not managed above league 2 before last season but took Luton up to the prem and McKenna doing as well as he has in his first managerial gig. Also the manager with our highest league finish since we last finished in the playoffs? Came from League 1.

Actually agree regarding Norwich but don’t with QPR, with their new manager bounce I think we’d have lost. Also Pearson has lost 3 and drawn once when he’s faced Russell Martin in the league, I think we would’ve lost by more but guess we’ll never know

Whilst doing very good jobs, McKenna had a pretty solid base and was backed with a number of signings. We have been told we are at the top end of our budget already so you would assume very little wiggle room in Jan (which would be crazy!). Edwards again had a very solid base having taken over from Nathan Jones, who to be fair to him had done a great job there in the seasons previous. 

[Charlie BCFC]

23 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The one on one where he should have scored that wasn't flagged for offside. 

Oh apologies for some reason thought the linesman flagged that one! Great chance, still stand by that we created more, had more shots, more on target and created higher quality chances aswell

[Galley is our king]

2 minutes ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

Whilst doing very good jobs, McKenna had a pretty solid base and was backed with a number of signings. We have been told we are at the top end of our budget already so you would assume very little wiggle room in Jan (which would be crazy!). Edwards again had a very solid base having taken over from Nathan Jones, who to be fair to him had done a great job there in the seasons previous. 

Yes at the top of our budget...

Well that was the budget for Pearson, you watch that budget suddenly increase and when it does the hypocrisy will be there for ALL to see.....

[Charlie BCFC]

18 minutes ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

This is the thing, Chaz - I think those “foundations” will need to be ripped up and started again if we are to change the way we play. By that I mean a number of new signings in January/Summer. Then we drop back in to the “we need time to bed the new guys in” etc etc mould. 

You might be right, I think we’ll keep a lot and just build on it as time goes on to suit the system. Guess we’ll have to wait and see!

12 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

I've rewatched the 1st half (I'll sleep very well tonight now) 

And what I've noticed is that once again you are talking rubbish. There was PLENTY of occasions where we just booted it forward or "rush it forward" as you would describe it. Lost possesion plenty of times by doing that. So to suggest we are not doing that is complete bs. 

I don’t think we’ve completely cut it out but we certainly do it less and keep the ball better. 

[Charlie BCFC]

11 minutes ago, Engvall’s Splinter said:

Whilst doing very good jobs, McKenna had a pretty solid base and was backed with a number of signings. We have been told we are at the top end of our budget already so you would assume very little wiggle room in Jan (which would be crazy!). Edwards again had a very solid base having taken over from Nathan Jones, who to be fair to him had done a great job there in the seasons previous. 

Fair point around Edwards but McKenna still took a while in League 1 to adjust to management. First full season his side were relentless and accumulated a similar points total to Cotterill did with us 

[Engvall’s Splinter]

4 minutes ago, Charlie BCFC said:

Fair point around Edwards but McKenna still took a while in League 1 to adjust to management. First full season his side were relentless and accumulated a similar points total to Cotterill did with us 

They were I agree, however he was also supported during the season with 15+ signings. 

[NcnsBcfc]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Q for any of the Podcasters who maybe reading.

I listened to some of the Podcast yesterday so apologies if already covered.

The Work in Progress vs the Booing at the end and indeed the mini exodus when the Norwich winner went in.

Doesn't sound like there will be much patience here does it?

Not sure about an exodus after the goal as such. It was the 95th minute and people were leaving or walking down anyhow.

The fact that it happened with only 30 seconds of the injury time to go just accelerated this process. The boos in my view were because of the late winner. I'm not sure that would have happened if the final result was 1-1 (as it should have been with a bit more application).

I don't think many people left prior to 85 to 90 mins as per usual.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, NcnsBcfc said:

Not sure about an exodus after the goal as such. It was the 95th minute and people were leaving or walking down anyhow.

The fact that it happened with only 30 seconds of the injury time to go just accelerated this process. The boos in my view were because of the late winner. I'm not sure that would have happened if the final result was 1-1 (as it should have been with a bit more application).

I don't think many people left prior to 85 to 90 mins as per usual.

Possibly, the last minute goal will always heighten things but it further highlights IMO that there won't be much of a honeymoon period for Manning due to the circumstances of his arrival.

Winning games will always buy time and cure issues, but it could get quite interesting given the current trajectory.

Yeah plenty will and do leave early, often standing around the vomitory entrances half leaving and half watching but more definitely left post winner.

Edited December 4, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[FNQ]

3 hours ago, Davefevs said:

This is your perception.

Whether you believe in data or not from Wyscout.

Our average xG this season is 1.340

Under LM is is 1.345 that’s 0.005 better, a 1-in-200 chance better.

Ah, but you may argue the chances are better, ie better quality.

Based on “big chances” (xG greater than 0.200)

Under LM we have had 8 big chances in 4 games (2 pg) - scoring 4 goals

Pre-LM we had 31 big chances in 15 league games (2 pg) - scoring 16 goals

++++++++++

I do keep saying that there are some differences in how we are playing but added together they are not having a material impact on the overall outcomes because some of the differences are + and some are -..

One thing not factored in though is player availability. LM has not been forced to play young James at left back, or Andy King at CB and had 100% availability from TC up front for example. Although we still have a couple out, LM has definitely had a stronger, more consistent squad to pick from over his four games than what was available for Nige in the dozen or so preceding games.

[Mr Popodopolous]

16 minutes ago, FNQ said:

One thing not factored in though is player availability. LM has not been forced to play young James at left back, or Andy King at CB and had 100% availability from TC up front for example. Although we still have a couple out, LM has definitely had a stronger, more consistent squad to pick from over his four games than what was available for Nige in the dozen or so preceding games.

Good point that.

Think Sykes was LB wasn't he, James RB, Pring at CB as even King was out for that final game.

We had 8 out v Coventry, 8 out v Ipswich, which rose to 10 during the latter and 11 v Cardiff.

V Sheffield Wednesday that fell to 7, and remained 7 v QPR.

6 v Middlesbrough, 6 v Southampton but Pring suspended and back up to 7 yesterday.

Still not ideal but less bad for Manning than NP.

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Good point that.

Think Sykes was LB wasn't he, James RB, Pring at CB as even King was out for that final game.

We had 8 out v Coventry, 8 out v Ipswich, which rose to 10 during the latter and 11 v Cardiff.

V Sheffield Wednesday that fell to 7, and remained 7 v QPR.

6 v Middlesbrough, 6 v Southampton but Pring suspended and back up to 7 yesterday.

Still not ideal but less bad for Manning than NP.

That's why they sacked Pearson when they did mate. They knew we had players returning and we had a fixture list which could deliver some decent results. 

They wanted him out and him losing two in a row was the perfect excuse for them. 

I'm being flippant when I say this but Manning has lost 2 in a row also...