Are Some Clubs Destined For The Premier League?

[The Coach]

In the last decade alone, we've seen some big clubs drop down from the PL, into the Championship and even into League One. Prime examples being the likes of Leeds United, Leicester City, Sunderland, Norwich City, Portsmouth, Wolves etc and now Ipswich Town look to join that list.

Granted, Portsmouth are yet to recover from their near collapse to climb back into the Championship at the very least. But we have seen the others above fall into League One. With the ability to eventually recover, and fire themselves back into the Championship and back into the Premier League (where one could argue they truly belong). These clubs have also been subject to new ownership over time. However, they still seem to have the blueprint and planning in place to eventually get back to the place they originally fell from.

What makes these clubs so different and so successful compared to Bristol City? The easy answer is the long stewardship of Lansdown but does it lie deeper than that? 

I made a post a couple of years ago when Sunderland were struggling in League One that they will be back in the Premier League before we ever see top flight football and I'm sure there are now many who would agree with that statement.

It wasn't long ago Aston Villa were in the Championship, and now they sit 3rd in the PL with a very impressive victory over Man City last night. Where they completely played Man City off the park.

Add salt into the wounds that we have also witnessed smaller clubs have the taste of top flight football in recent years; with the likes of Bournemouth, Luton, Blackpool, and one could argue even Burnley. To add further insult, I'm sure none will want to remember our Welsh rivals both Cardiff and Swansea not so long ago were playing top flight football and rubbing shoulders with the footballing giants.

How many more clubs will bypass us as we continue to linger in the Championship or even fall into League One if the Manning era does not work out? What other clubs could eventually take over us who currently lie in the lower leagues? Could Bolton Wanders make a resurgence into the PL before we get there? Even Portsmouth who currently sit top of League One?

 

It's echoed many times, but the life of a Bristol City fan always feels like you're stood still while others are constantly overtaking us. 

[italian dave]

As Tommy Docherty (the old Man U manager, not the City midfielder) once said, “it’s good to see Bristol City back where they belong: 11th in the second division”

That was years ago - and not much has changed since! 

[Eddie Hitler]

I'd say that because people support "their club" for life in most cases people tend to project onto them special, even unique, qualities which really don't exist.

At root they are, location excepted, interchangeable professional football teams and this decade's success is next decade's struggler falling through the leagues if something goes awry.

My earliest memories of supporting City were under Alan Dicks in Division 1 with that classic line up, meaning that I have always since then seen us as a top division club in waiting. I am however wrong in this, as the companies selling investments always say "past results are no guide to future performance".

Man United ruled for a decade from the mid 90s because of the combination of a great manager and half a dozen superb players coming through the youth team at the same time and forming the core of the side.

And look at them now.

Brentford has been very well run recently but for years was just another small lower league club.

Currently City has a very strong youth programme, great facilities and coaching, and wealthy owners. This is an excellent position in which to be.

We are however lacking two things: an excellent manager (maybe that is Manning, too early to tell yet) and some decent player purchases.

Add those two and we become a "special" club.

[Major Isewater]

Once you’ve succeeded in doing something  it gives you the confidence and experience to do it again 

Clubs mentioned, like Leeds, Leicester, Sunderland etc have been there and done it. They know what’s needed and believe that they belong in the top division.

At City I have the impression that it is a pipe dream, no one , least of all Tinnion, believes.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I'd say Parachute Payments help a great deal. I'd we are taking the modern era.

If we are talking pre dating modern era, what makes Norwich e.g. have a longer period in the top flight than us.

17 top flight seasons pre dating the PL era and then obviously 1992-93 when it transitioned to a PL era another 3.

This is pre dating Parachute Payments etc.

[GrahamC]

Short answer is Sunderland & Villa are absolutely miles bigger than us.

Both those teams being there is simply the natural order & expected.

However there is a list as long as your arm with Bournemouth, Burnley, Fulham, Brentford etc where that doesn’t apply & that does come back to our clueless owner & chairman & their inability to understand the football world.

”Could be worse, we could have Vincent Tan” as we often hear on here, just the 2 more promotions to the Prem than us for the man who doesn’t even know how to wear a pair of trousers.

[tin]

We will never get to the PL under the Lansdowns. I’d put my mortgage on that.

The longer they stay, the shorter the odds are of the likes of Birmingham, Coventry, Pompey, Bolton, Cardiff etc getting there before we do IMO.

The Gate and possibly the training ground are about the only things that are PL-ready. When the Lansdowns go, I’ll be more hopeful. 

[BCFC31]

4 hours ago, The Coach said:

In the last decade alone, we've seen some big clubs drop down from the PL, into the Championship and even into League One. Prime examples being the likes of Leeds United, Leicester City, Sunderland, Norwich City, Portsmouth, Wolves etc and now Ipswich Town look to join that list.

Granted, Portsmouth are yet to recover from their near collapse to climb back into the Championship at the very least. But we have seen the others above fall into League One. With the ability to eventually recover, and fire themselves back into the Championship and back into the Premier League (where one could argue they truly belong). These clubs have also been subject to new ownership over time. However, they still seem to have the blueprint and planning in place to eventually get back to the place they originally fell from.

What makes these clubs so different and so successful compared to Bristol City? The easy answer is the long stewardship of Lansdown but does it lie deeper than that? 

I made a post a couple of years ago when Sunderland were struggling in League One that they will be back in the Premier League before we ever see top flight football and I'm sure there are now many who would agree with that statement.

It wasn't long ago Aston Villa were in the Championship, and now they sit 3rd in the PL with a very impressive victory over Man City last night. Where they completely played Man City off the park.

Add salt into the wounds that we have also witnessed smaller clubs have the taste of top flight football in recent years; with the likes of Bournemouth, Luton, Blackpool, and one could argue even Burnley. To add further insult, I'm sure none will want to remember our Welsh rivals both Cardiff and Swansea not so long ago were playing top flight football and rubbing shoulders with the footballing giants.

How many more clubs will bypass us as we continue to linger in the Championship or even fall into League One if the Manning era does not work out? What other clubs could eventually take over us who currently lie in the lower leagues? Could Bolton Wanders make a resurgence into the PL before we get there? Even Portsmouth who currently sit top of League One?

 

It's echoed many times, but the life of a Bristol City fan always feels like you're stood still while others are constantly overtaking us. 

It's the lansdowns imo they can't structure a football club. Look at the state of the medical department one minute we have a CEO then not then it's technical director then this bloke from Bristol sport etc you could argue our recruitment department has also been an absolute mess for years aswell. That and they also appear extremely stubborn! They fail to realise they arent football people and refuse to seek outside expertise who can challenge them in a healthy way. They haven't had a blue print for success for years always chopping and changing and just hoping to find the right formula. I don't feel we will ever get to the Premier leauge under lansdowns ownership and sooner we are bought out ( by the right owners befitting to us ) the better. People will throw the fact lansdowns has upgraded the training ground and stadium at me but what these people fail to realise those are business investments for him and his family he owns it and leases it back out to the football club in which case his family will profit from this for at least the next 108 years.

Edited December 7, 2023 by BCFC31

[cidercity1987]

14 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Short answer is Sunderland & Villa are absolutely miles bigger than us.

Both those teams being there is simply the natural order & expected.

However there is a list as long as your arm with Bournemouth, Burnley, Fulham, Brentford etc where that doesn’t apply & that does come back to our clueless owner & chairman & their inability to understand the football world.

”Could be worse, we could have Vincent Tan” as we often hear on here, just the 2 more promotions to the Prem than us for the man who doesn’t even know how to wear a pair of trousers.

 

Just now, tin said:

We will never get to the PL under the Lansdowns. I’d put my mortgage on that.

The longer they stay, the shorter the odds are of the likes of Birmingham, Coventry, Pompey, Bolton, Cardiff etc getting there before we do IMO.

The Gate and possibly the training ground are about the only things that are PL-ready. When the Lansdowns go, I’ll be more hopeful. 

Quite,

It's a historical anomaly why we achieve much less with the same or more resources than most of the clubs listed.

Absolutely no doubt lesser supported clubs and currently worse teams, like Bolton and Pompey will be in the Prem before us.

[WWred]

The "big clubs" are now the "big clubs" as determined by their history

 

We didn't make the cut years ago and now we never will!

[Mr Popodopolous]

19 minutes ago, GrahamC said:

Short answer is Sunderland & Villa are absolutely miles bigger than us.

Both those teams being there is simply the natural order & expected.

However there is a list as long as your arm with Bournemouth, Burnley, Fulham, Brentford etc where that doesn’t apply & that does come back to our clueless owner & chairman & their inability to understand the football world.

”Could be worse, we could have Vincent Tan” as we often hear on here, just the 2 more promotions to the Prem than us for the man who doesn’t even know how to wear a pair of trousers.

The only thing I would say in the case of Fulham is that in different ways since the late 1990s they've been rather monied.

Al Fayed pre dating FFP didn't really care about losses so their rise was somewhat inevitable.

Managing to stay there and stay long enough to a) Attract an even wealthier younger owner such as Shahid Khan and b) Long enough for Parachute Payments and FFP to become decisive..they seem somewhat baked in short of disaster due to the original push by Al-Fayed and the subsequently evolved system. 

[ProfitInMyPocket]

The club's that are usually well-run from top to bottom are.

And we ain't one of them.

[GrahamC]

Just now, Mr Popodopolous said:

The only thing I would say in the case of Fulham is that in different ways since the late 1990s they've been rather monied.

Al Fayed pre dating FFP didn't really care about losses so their rise was somewhat inevitable.

Managing to stay there and stay long enough to a) Attract an even wealthier younger owner such as Shahid Khan and b) Long enough for Parachute Payments and FFP to become decisive..they seem somewhat baked in short of disaster due to the original push by Al-Fayed and the subsequently evolved system. 

Maybe but they are a nothing club (admittedly in the richest part of the richest city) & you can always find a reason, Bournemouth say, dodgy Russian money, FFP cheats.

Never us though & that’s the point, isn’t it?

[BCFCGav]

I think that's a really good post. I've often felt like City one day breaking the top flight is impossible (even though it factually isn't). I think about it in the same way I think about a lottery win or something, really fun to think about and dream about but not something I believe will come to fruition. I wonder if that mentality has seeped into the club over time. 

I've said so many times of late (past 5 years or so), City hate being in the lead. At 0-0 we often find ourselves well in games. Sometimes we'll go behind and the freedom of that leads to us playing much nicer, braver football. But when we actually take the lead, I don't feel like we're then more likely to win as stupid as it sounds. What I said at HT against Norwich, and heard many others say, was 'we need a second, Tommy's miss will bite us'. And so it was. We led Stoke at HT and lost. Led PNE at HT and drew. Led Boro at HT 2-0 and were level on 51 minutes (but won, granted). Of course there's exceptions to the rule, but we are often near the top for 'points dropped when winning' iirc.

I think at AG and perhaps even in the minds of some staff and players, winning/being promoted feels like a dream and not a realistic aim, and the self-fulfilling prophecy does the rest.

[Mr Popodopolous]

1 minute ago, GrahamC said:

Maybe but they are a nothing club (admittedly in the richest part of the richest city) & you can always find a reason, Bournemouth say, dodgy Russian money, FFP cheats.

Never us though & that’s the point, isn’t it?

Agreed- as for us.

Had we been able to go big late 1990s perhaps we would have been among them.

Hell had we gone big in January 2008, that was as good a time as any- we had momentum, oh we at times rode our luck especially away from home, but we were surely too timid in the January window.

[Mr Popodopolous]

6 minutes ago, BCFCGav said:

I think that's a really good post. I've often felt like City one day breaking the top flight is impossible (even though it factually isn't). I think about it in the same way I think about a lottery win or something, really fun to think about and dream about but not something I believe will come to fruition. I wonder if that mentality has seeped into the club over time. 

I've said so many times of late (past 5 years or so), City hate being in the lead. At 0-0 we often find ourselves well in games. Sometimes we'll go behind and the freedom of that leads to us playing much nicer, braver football. But when we actually take the lead, I don't feel like we're then more likely to win as stupid as it sounds. What I said at HT against Norwich, and heard many others say, was 'we need a second, Tommy's miss will bite us'. And so it was. We led Stoke at HT and lost. Led PNE at HT and drew. Led Boro at HT 2-0 and were level on 51 minutes (but won, granted). Of course there's exceptions to the rule, but we are often near the top for 'points dropped when winning' iirc.

I think at AG and perhaps even in the minds of some staff and players, winning/being promoted feels like a dream and not a realistic aim, and the self-fulfilling prophecy does the rest.

We also gained 4 points from losing positions this year so it almost balances out, under NP.

Width of the post away from perhaps adding to that v Ipswich too.

[Bazooka Joe]

2 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hell had we gone big in January 2008, that was as good a time as any- we had momentum, oh we at times rode our luck especially away from home, but we were surely too timid in the January window.

Very true.

Fortune favours the brave.

We missed a golden opportunity.

If only . . .

[BCFCGav]

3 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

We also gained 4 points from losing positions this year so it almost balances out, under NP.

Width of the post away from perhaps adding to that v Ipswich too.

Very true Pop, Swansea did slip my mind. The brain does hold the bad memories tighter doesn't it 

[Aaron-Bcfc]

1 minute ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Hell had we gone big in January 2008, that was as good a time as any- we had momentum, oh we at times rode our luck especially away from home, but we were surely too timid in the January window.

And this was repeated exactly 10 years later in 2017/18. 3rd in the league going into January, and we plump for Lois Diony, Ryan Kent and Liam Walsh. Cheers for that Steve.

Compare that to Cardiff, who in the same window brought in Marko Grujic on loan from Liverpool (now a starter for Porto and previously Hertha Berlin), and splashed out £5m on Gary Madine (a poor signing from Warnock, but the money was there regardless).  They finished 2nd on 90 points, we finished 11th on 67.

[Midlands Robin]

If you look at final 1979-80 league table, with us relegated, third from bottom, every single team in the top flight then has gone on to play in the Premier league and in almost every case has appeared in at least 1 major cup final with a high percent having gone on to win a major trophy.

Wolves had a similar collapse in the 80's following us down through the leagues but have managed to build back up all the way to the top again.

The current state of football finance certainly helps those who fall out of the league but it doesn't explain how those clubs who have never played in hte Premier or have been out of it for some time get back up there.

We need to get all of our ducks in line to be able to get promoted and 9 times out of 10 we always miss one part of the puzzle. I agree that it's almost certainly a time for a change of owner. I was looking through our paperwork in another thread and hadn't remembered that SL joined our board in 1997. So he's been associated with the club for 26 years. Through most of which he's been the owner. Whenever we have managed to gain promotion from League 1 we've managed to throw away any momentum. Look at the number of clubs who have managed to get out of League 1 and then in a few short years repeat that by gaining promotion to the Prem? We almost did it under GJ but once again, the owners blinked. As soon as you lose that momentum and start to slide back down the Championship table, its harder and harder to climb back up towards promotion again.

I don't think its possible not to state we are the biggest club never to have played in the Premier League which smarts especially when you look at the rise of clubs like Luton.

 

[Mr Popodopolous]

5 minutes ago, Aaron-Bcfc said:

And this was repeated exactly 10 years later in 2017/18. 3rd in the league going into January, and we plump for Lois Diony, Ryan Kent and Liam Walsh. Cheers for that Steve.

Compare that to Cardiff, who in the same window brought in Marko Grujic on loan from Liverpool (now a starter for Porto and previously Hertha Berlin), and splashed out £5m on Gary Madine (a poor signing from Warnock, but the money was there regardless).  They finished 2nd on 90 points, we finished 11th on 67.

I don't think we can wholly compare like with like, we were walking bit of a fine line with FFP.

Now could we have invested the January money better absolutely but we were not too far off our Upper Loss limit in January 2018. (They were checking financials in March by this stage).

We wouldn't have made top 2 anyway IMO 2017-18, top 6 playoffs perhaps should have.

Cardiff were also in receipt of Parachute Payments, we were not.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Mr Popodopolous]

32 minutes ago, Midlands Robin said:

Wolves had a similar collapse in the 80's following us down through the leagues but have managed to build back up all the way to the top again.

Jack Hayward poured a lot into Wolves. Redeveloped Molineux, threw money at the team.

This gave them a platform to rise again.

Not a guarantee but it helped.

As for Luton I wonder if they could have collapsed somewhat this year had they not gone up. Now or never type window.

Hayward...oh it doesn't look like much at all now but early to mid 1990s, and a second wind early 2000s..it was!

Early 2000s, 2nd tier- 8 figure outlay on transfer fees in a season..that's a lot!

Edited December 7, 2023 by Mr Popodopolous

[Harry]

What constitutes a big club? Attendances? I’d argue this is the most rational element, but of course history comes into it too. 
If we look at average attendances, we’re about 29th. 
Clubs that average less than us who are more likely to make it to the Prem before us would be : 

Cardiff, Huddersfield, Watford, Hull, Swansea, Preston, Birmingham, QPR, Blackburn, Millwall, Reading, Portsmouth, Bradford, Bolton, Plymouth, Barnsley, Charlton and Wrexham. 
 

There are a few ‘bigger’ clubs (based on attendance) who will also get there before we do :

Leeds, Leicester, Southampton, Ipswich, Norwich, Middlesbrough, Sunderland, West Brom, Stoke, Coventry, Derby, Sheff Weds. 

Sorry. Does that come across rather negative

[Alessandro]

I'm sure the Lansdowns are lovely people and the intentions are good and honest.

But simply put they just seem not to know how to run a successful football club. 

There is absolutely no vision. No innovation. They are reactionary in a world where your reactions are usually too late. 

Add in the inability to recognise that and bring in top people with vision to work in the top positions instead and have voices that challenge them, means we're stuck in a perpetual cycle of yes men appointments like Tinnion, Holden, Millen, LJ. People the Lansdowns "can work with"....and so the pattern repeats.

Of course it's not impossible we go up under SL, but I can't see it this year or next, so it will have taken nearly 20 years longer than it could and should have done to get there.

Crazy really and a shame for Steve Lansdown that, after all this time and money, what looks like stubbornness from the outside will mean his legacy will probably be that he failed to get BCFC to the premier league.

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Alessandro

[ray savino]

I put this on the “like going to work” thread the other day. Not trying to be indulgent but I feel it is more relevent to express my thoughts on this thread subject matter.

We are, and it pains me to say it, historically a mediocre club with a record of never winning a major trophy (despite us occasionally singing over the years along with 91 other league clubs, “We’re the greatest football team the world has ever seen”).

My dad got me hooked and now I’ve got my son hooked (he has never forgiven me!) so I can’t change my allegiance now. I’ve lived and worked around the country. We are no less committed or passionate as fans at the various clubs around the country. However I do believe that lack of success has somewhat developed a sort of resigned acceptance of that mediocrity. Almost a sense of realism and acceptance of our position. Yes, we all dream about winning the cup and prem football, and that’s the beauty of football, there’s always a dream. Making it a reality is another thing.

This acceptance thing, slight lethargy if you like is one of the things that I really warmed to Pearson’s attitude at the club. He was prepared to tell us we were a strange sort of club, passive in lots of ways. He told us and mainly the owners a few honest, uncomfortable truths. It wasn’t meant to be an insult, but a call to change our mentality and culture. Okay we can argue on here that his football was crap or it was good, but I can say this as a proud Bristolian that has supported City since 1966, that his observations are not far from the truth. It’s what people I have met from all over the country including one or two of ex players I’ve known. Lovely part of the world, nice people but just a bit accepting or ... nice, or parochial, bit of a football backwater. Also geographically not much competition down here compared with the North, Midlands and London. Then again look at Norwich, Ipswich - they haven’t done badly over the years despite being outposts.

We haven’t had much to cheer about over the years and we’ve got used to that. A tier 3 promotion every ten years, and a giant killing cup run every 20 years or so... with a Sherpa van Papa Johnstones Cup thrown in now and again. That’s not to belittle these achievements, they’ve been great times out for me, but it’s hardly surprising that we’re all a bit passive for a decent size supported big city club.

I liked Pearson because for me he started to address the passivity about our club’s culture. I sincerely hope that LM can keep this going. He does seem a nice man. He also seems an ambitious one as well, so let’s hope he can add a bit of ruthless ambition to our nice club. Whatever happens I’m sure I’ll still be joining in with the “We’re the greatest football team the world has ever seen”. It’s the hope that kills etc etc. 

I might add to this stating the blindingly obvious (that the Lansdowns seem to imply themselves) that we need a massive boost of both financial investment and more importantly strategic energy, football business expertise and ideas, to either supplement the Lansdowns Board of Directors, or completely take over the tenure of the club. Meanwhile we’ll continue to dream...

[DaveInSA]

I was thinking almost this last night.

Couple of things came to my mind - the gulf between Premier League and Championship is huge. Totally massive. I don't normally watch premier league footy, but it was on the Amazon yesterday so I had a dabble.

Villa have built a really good side over the past 4 seasons. The speed with which they moved the ball and the skill of the players was marvellous. You could argue that their execution at the last hurdle wasn't that great (the shots in the main were tame) but the number of chances they made and the purpose they had was a joy to watch. Man City were all at sea.

But it isn't the Gulf per se that's the only issue.  The bigger issues is that we don't have any balls. The players over all my years of watching (except in Tier 3) have lacked the balls and belief. Coupled to this the game has changed quickly over the past 3-4 seasons. You have to be intelligent and adaptable too (whereas at our level over the years if you were a good clogger as a CB you did ok - ala Flint). We're miles away from being comfortable with the football. They're scared to play. 

The Lansdowns don't have any balls either : see below

49 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed- as for us.

Had we been able to go big late 1990s perhaps we would have been among them.

Hell had we gone big in January 2008, that was as good a time as any- we had momentum, oh we at times rode our luck especially away from home, but we were surely too timid in the January window.

And us fans have no balls or belief either, we're just as bad as the players. 

What needs to happen, is to build on what Pearson started. And we need to get some balls.

[BCFCGav]

It's interesting to consider League 1 in this conversation as well. We've won the 3rd division title 4 times, so when we're down there I think there's an element of 'healthy arrogance' (a Manning phrase) amongst the fanbase. A confidence that we'll get results, beat teams near the top of the table, win games when playing poorly and ultimately get promoted. The question is, how do we feign this confidence in the Championship! 

I joked after Sunday I want another League 1 tour (and it was a joke, I don't fancy getting relegated!), but the joke was founded on the fact that I believe if/when we do next get relegated however many years from now, we'll be back up in a season or two maybe with an EFL Trophy on the shelf (won three previous). We have the 'know-how' down there that the clubs mentioned by OP have at this level.

[Davefevs]

37 minutes ago, ray savino said:

I might add to this stating the blindingly obvious (that the Lansdowns seem to imply themselves) that we need a massive boost of both financial investment and more importantly strategic energy, football business expertise and ideas, to either supplement the Lansdowns Board of Directors, or completely take over the tenure of the club. Meanwhile we’ll continue to dream...

Booooooom  

[tin]

59 minutes ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

Agreed- as for us.

Had we been able to go big late 1990s perhaps we would have been among them.

Hell had we gone big in January 2008, that was as good a time as any- we had momentum, oh we at times rode our luck especially away from home, but we were surely too timid in the January window.

I said it at the time and I’ll say it again: that was the time for SL to roll the dice with minimum risk. And for context, Brentford were in L2 and Luton finished bottom of L1 back then. We even loaned James Wilson to Brentford that January!

I recall being told at the time that we were offered the chance to sign Sylvan Ebanks-Blake for £2m from Plymouth early that January, but instead we signed a 33-year-old Dele Adebola for £100k a day before the transfer window closed. 

Nothing against Dele, he did a job. But that showed SL’s mindset IMO and I can’t help but wonder what if the goals of a striker like that had got us up. We’ll never get that close again under the Lansdowns’ watch. 

[22A]

1 hour ago, Mr Popodopolous said:

I'd say Parachute Payments help a great deal. 

Indeed, so relegated teams can retain their star names and bounce back up.

However, for decades Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford were constants in Div 3 (as was) and that is what rubs. Before they received any PP, each of them managed to climb above City and others like us.