Match Report: Exhausted City's First Half Boro Assault

[phantom]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Rarely was that the case.  Because most on here saw Nige as a tactical dinosaur, so he was very unlikely to get credit for tactically outwitting his opponent in the other dugout.  

But the Nige / LM point-scoring is tiresome.  I never mentioned Nige in my thread, it was a thread about 45 minutes of Liam Manning.

My reply wasn't aimed at you, it was more a general response to the forum

There are still those that see all current success down to Pearson and all errors down to Manning

It it tiresome how many threads are still referencing Pearson, when he has been gone for a long time now - I have said before that I wasn't happy with the way it all played out or who took over, but it's what we have and it is what we chose to support

[Davefevs]

31 minutes ago, phantom said:

My reply wasn't aimed at you, it was more a general response to the forum

There are still those that see all current success down to Pearson and all errors down to Manning

It it tiresome how many threads are still referencing Pearson, when he has been gone for a long time now - I have said before that I wasn't happy with the way it all played out or who took over, but it's what we have and it is what we chose to support

No, I know you weren’t.  I just see that because I was a huge Pearson advocate, some take my critique of Manning as being “cult of Nige”.  If only they took off their blinkers off (and sheepskin nosebands ) and read the positive stuff I wrote too.  But hey-no.

Everyone should go and watch today’s press conference.  It’s his best one imho.

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 hours ago, italian dave said:

And here’s your summary from that particular game. Which, to me, doesn’t seem to include too much by way of fallout, buts or indeed any sign of critique of our poor game management. Just the positives spin on a game we won. And in which, incidentally, we didn’t romp to a two goal lead, and didn’t play well at any stage. 

“Coventry got all the way to the play off final last season whilst putting in many performances which were similar to our performance yesterday. They just had the ability to grind out results whilst not playing particularly well. Something which up until now we've struggled with.

Yes we'd all love to watch free flowing attacking football every week. But sometimes you do just need to grind out results when you're not playing well etc or have a depleted team. 

In the early days of Nige being here, wed have took a hiding yesterday. The fact we won shows the mentality we now have in the squad.”

 

Not sure of the point you're trying to make here? I think you're excluding the context. 

We played King and Pring at centre back. We only had 14 fit players. 

I'm not sure of the relevance of my comment about the Coventry game in a conversation about the Boro game where we played well first half and didn't have a depleted squad. 

There was a massive fallout on here about our performance against Coventry despite the circumstances. So to add balance I pointed out that the criticism isn't unique to Manning as was being framed. 

The Coventry game was more comfortable viewing than Saturdays game. 

If you check back my posts you'll see I was full of praise of our front foot football in the first half at Boro. 

 

Edited February 12 by W-S-M Seagull

[mozo]

4 hours ago, Davefevs said:

No, I know you weren’t.  I just see that because I was a huge Pearson advocate, some take my critique of Manning as being “cult of Nige”.  If only they took off their blinkers off (and sheepskin nosebands ) and read the positive stuff I wrote too.  But hey-no.

Everyone should go and watch today’s press conference.  It’s his best one imho.

I think you've innocently walked into this one a tad by posting a strongly worded criticism of Manning shortly after one of his best wins. You  praised the result and three of the players, so the optics are that the success was in spite of LM.

It's also off the backdrop of a couple of weeks of OTIB accusations (not you) that Manning can't motivate players, uses the wrong formation, gets his selections wrong, is devaluing Conway (okay, that one was you ) and is rubbish at ingame management etc etc.

There was so much decisive criticism of him that for a couple of days I had some fun with it and debated the various strands.

So, by proxy, I'm the thou shalt not criticise Manning to your cult of Nige  In truth, we both rated Nige, and neither have turned against Manning. 

Even if we beat Southampton tomorrow, it doesn't mean that everyone was wrong and actually Manning is astute in all of those areas, but there will inevitably be some I told you so type posts whatever the result is.

For me, the truth will come in the long run. I'd bloody love those 3 points though!

[W-S-M Seagull]

5 minutes ago, mozo said:

I think you've innocently walked into this one a tad by posting a strongly worded criticism of Manning shortly after one of his best wins. You  praised the result and three of the players, so the optics are that the success was in spite of LM.

It's also off the backdrop of a couple of weeks of OTIB accusations (not you) that Manning can't motivate players, uses the wrong formation, gets his selections wrong, is devaluing Conway (okay, that one was you ) and is rubbish at ingame management etc etc.

There was so much decisive criticism of him that for a couple of days I had some fun with it and debated the various strands.

So, by proxy, I'm the thou shalt not criticise Manning to your cult of Nige  In truth, we both rated Nige, and neither have turned against Manning. 

Even if we beat Southampton tomorrow, it doesn't mean that everyone was wrong and actually Manning is astute in all of those areas, but there will inevitably be some I told you so type posts whatever the result is.

For me, the truth will come in the long run. I'd bloody love those 3 points though!

Ultimately any manager is going to recieve criticism when their team goes 6 games without a win. Him being in a honeymoon period (according to some) and our Fa Cup results probably saw him recieve far less criticism than would be considered normal. 

It's also worth remembering that it was said that Manning was brought in here to get us challenging this season. 

So a lot of the criticisms isn't really a criticism of Manning, it's a criticism of a the board. People are still very angry at the board. Not for getting rid of NP, but the lies and the self sabotage by not signing players in the summer. 

Yes Manning takes the heat but he signed up to this knowing the situation. 

[mozo]

1 minute ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Ultimately any manager is going to recieve criticism when their team goes 6 games without a win. Him being in a honeymoon period (according to some) and our Fa Cup results probably saw him recieve far less criticism than would be considered normal. 

It's also worth remembering that it was said that Manning was brought in here to get us challenging this season. 

So a lot of the criticisms isn't really a criticism of Manning, it's a criticism of a the board. People are still very angry at the board. Not for getting rid of NP, but the lies and the self sabotage by not signing players in the summer. 

Yes Manning takes the heat but he signed up to this knowing the situation. 

Yep, I've got no issue with criticism of the board or of the sacking of Nige and BS that came with it.

But for me some criticism of Manning either didn't make sense or was premature.

Doesn't mean I'm right, but I felt like I made some good points. I didn't dig the posts put and do an I told you so after Saturday though because that would have been childish! 

[Davefevs]

9 minutes ago, mozo said:

I think you've innocently walked into this one a tad by posting a strongly worded criticism of Manning shortly after one of his best wins. You  praised the result and three of the players, so the optics are that the success was in spite of LM

The thing was, it wasn’t anything of the sort.

It was a question, first and foremost.

Followed by a summary of what I saw happening.

Followed by a recognition (by myself) that there was a bigger picture, the win.

Ended with relax, and to go and start some threads reflecting the positive things.

+++++

I tried to point a number of posters back to what I’d actually posted, to no avail.

If that’s a strongly worded criticism of Manning, I’m stunned!

[mozo]

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

The thing was, it wasn’t anything of the sort.

It was a question, first and foremost.

Followed by a summary of what I saw happening.

Followed by a recognition (by myself) that there was a bigger picture, the win.

Ended with relax, and to go and start some threads reflecting the positive things.

+++++

I tried to point a number of posters back to what I’d actually posted, to no avail.

If that’s a strongly worded criticism of Manning, I’m stunned!

No, that's what it was interpreted as I think

[italian dave]

4 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

Not sure of the point you're trying to make here? I think you're excluding the context. 

We played King and Pring at centre back. We only had 14 fit players. 

I'm not sure of the relevance of my comment about the Coventry game in a conversation about the Boro game where we played well first half and didn't have a depleted squad. 

There was a massive fallout on here about our performance against Coventry despite the circumstances. So to add balance I pointed out that the criticism isn't unique to Manning as was being framed. 

The Coventry game was more comfortable viewing than Saturdays game. 

If you check back my posts you'll see I was full of praise of our front foot football in the first half at Boro. 

 

OK: the context

- we hardly have a full or large squad at the moment either - and add to that the gruelling schedule we are facing which is placing us at a disadvantage against every team we face.

- the relevance of the Coventry game is that it's the one you mentioned as evidence your proposition that posters were equally critical after that game. I was simply responding to your having talked about that game.

- Subjective I know, but my view is that the game on Saturday was far more comfortable viewing than the Coventry one. I don't think we were unlucky Saturday: I think we played well going forward first half and defended resolutely second half. As I've said elsewhere, it never felt to me - until the very end - that it was just a matter of time til Boro scored. Coventry we were dead lucky: they did everything but score, hit the woodwork, more than once as I recall. Also, we actually played well for long spells on Saturday - we didn't v Coventry. But as I say, I accept that's just my view and yours is different, that's fair enough.

I didn't read all your posts in the first half, no. I never read the forum when I'm at a match and watching the game. So I tend to go by the - in theory more considered - comments people make afterwards.

And I have to say that yours weren't terribly positive! Mostly critical in fact.

The contrast I was making wasn't between a generic summary of 'the feeling' after both games. There were, and are, lots of different views. It was more between your own reaction to the Coventry game, which was to focus on the positives, the need to grind out results, the mentality of the squad, the quality of the opposition. And yet on Saturday your over-riding post match repose was one that was critical of Manning, of the changes to personnel and formation.

Edited February 12 by italian dave

[italian dave]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

The thing was, it wasn’t anything of the sort.

It was a question, first and foremost.

Followed by a summary of what I saw happening.

Followed by a recognition (by myself) that there was a bigger picture, the win.

Ended with relax, and to go and start some threads reflecting the positive things.

+++++

I tried to point a number of posters back to what I’d actually posted, to no avail.

If that’s a strongly worded criticism of Manning, I’m stunned!

You’ll know that I was critical of the post on Saturday, Dave.

I’ve not joined in much since: I’ve said my piece, I take the points you’ve made since, and I’m not going to get into a debate with you on tactics and data!

But I do think @mozo has a point.

Whether you’re writing a novel, a political manifesto or a corporate press release, the one thing you’ll get told is to never underestimate the importance of the headline/title and of the opening lines.

When we’d just come away from Middlesbrough with a win, your headline had a very big “but” (and no question mark), and your opening line talked about disappointment, frustration and anger.

And, quite honestly, if you’d asked me to come up with three words after the game on Saturday then disappointment, frustration and anger would have been pretty much the last ones I’d have thought of!

So, whatever else you went on to say, you’d lost me by then! 

[Davefevs]

7 minutes ago, italian dave said:

You’ll know that I was critical of the post on Saturday, Dave.

I’ve not joined in much since: I’ve said my piece, I take the points you’ve made since, and I’m not going to get into a debate with you on tactics and data!

But I do think @mozo has a point.

Whether you’re writing a novel, a political manifesto or a corporate press release, the one thing you’ll get told is to never underestimate the importance of the headline/title and of the opening lines.

When we’d just come away from Middlesbrough with a win, your headline had a very big “but” (and no question mark), and your opening line talked about disappointment, frustration and anger.

And, quite honestly, if you’d asked me to come up with three words after the game on Saturday then disappointment, frustration and anger would have been pretty much the last ones I’d have thought of!

So, whatever else you went on to say, you’d lost me by then! 

@Port Said Red has already critiqued my headline skills.

(they were in reference to second half too and stated as such)

Edited February 12 by Davefevs

[italian dave]

1 minute ago, Davefevs said:

@Port Said Red has already critiqued my headline skills.

(they were in reference to second half too and stated as such)

We’re a touchy lot in Portishead……take our headlines very seriously

[Davefevs]

3 minutes ago, italian dave said:

We’re a touchy lot in Portishead……take our headlines very seriously

Probably didn’t like it when I hit a cricket ball into your rowing boat on the lake!!!

[Port Said Red]

20 minutes ago, italian dave said:

We’re a touchy lot in Portishead……take our headlines very seriously

 

15 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

Probably didn’t like it when I hit a cricket ball into your rowing boat on the lake!!!

Are you sure it wasn't one of the swan boats?

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, italian dave said:

OK: the context

- we hardly have a full or large squad at the moment either - and add to that the gruelling schedule we are facing which is placing us at a disadvantage against every team we face.

- the relevance of the Coventry game is that it's the one you mentioned as evidence your proposition that posters were equally critical after that game. I was simply responding to your having talked about that game.

- Subjective I know, but my view is that the game on Saturday was far more comfortable viewing than the Coventry one. I don't think we were unlucky Saturday: I think we played well going forward first half and defended resolutely second half. As I've said elsewhere, it never felt to me - until the very end - that it was just a matter of time til Boro scored. Coventry we were dead lucky: they did everything but score, hit the woodwork, more than once as I recall. Also, we actually played well for long spells on Saturday - we didn't v Coventry. But as I say, I accept that's just my view and yours is different, that's fair enough.

I didn't read all your posts in the first half, no. I never read the forum when I'm at a match and watching the game. So I tend to go by the - in theory more considered - comments people make afterwards.

And I have to say that yours weren't terribly positive! Mostly critical in fact.

The contrast I was making wasn't between a generic summary of 'the feeling' after both games. There were, and are, lots of different views. It was more between your own reaction to the Coventry game, which was to focus on the positives, the need to grind out results, the mentality of the squad, the quality of the opposition. And yet on Saturday your over-riding post match repose was one that was critical of Manning, of the changes to personnel and formation.

We only had JKL who we'd not consider to be 1st team on the bench at Boro. 

The difference between availability for that Coventry game and the Boro game is night and day. 

Every team has a gruelling schedule, no point moaning about it. Ours maybe a little bit more due to the cup replays but then we're not the only team to play replays. 

Man City always have a gruelling schedule due to their success, Pep doesn't moan about it. 

You've proven my point exactly. Even months later you're highly critical of the Coventry performance, even tho they only had the one shot on target. 

After that game and in your case even months later people said Coventry battered us and dominated us. They didn't. They had a few pot shots but nothing that really troubled Max. But it's fair enough that you thought different and it's also fair enough that I think different about our second half performance v Boro. 

It's intriguing that those that say Coventry were dead unlucky also don't hold that view about Boros second half performance and infact spin it as tho we defended robustly etc. 

It's also interesting that those that castrated Nige for the formation we played against Coventry to begin with have also defended Manning changing formation at half time v Boro. 

Very interesting. 

It seems that performances under Manning and his decisions are not allowed to be critiqued however Nigels was. 

[italian dave]

37 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

We only had JKL who we'd not consider to be 1st team on the bench at Boro. 

The difference between availability for that Coventry game and the Boro game is night and day. 

Every team has a gruelling schedule, no point moaning about it. Ours maybe a little bit more due to the cup replays but then we're not the only team to play replays. 

Man City always have a gruelling schedule due to their success, Pep doesn't moan about it. 

You've proven my point exactly. Even months later you're highly critical of the Coventry performance, even tho they only had the one shot on target. 

After that game and in your case even months later people said Coventry battered us and dominated us. They didn't. They had a few pot shots but nothing that really troubled Max. But it's fair enough that you thought different and it's also fair enough that I think different about our second half performance v Boro. 

It's intriguing that those that say Coventry were dead unlucky also don't hold that view about Boros second half performance and infact spin it as tho we defended robustly etc. 

It's also interesting that those that castrated Nige for the formation we played against Coventry to begin with have also defended Manning changing formation at half time v Boro. 

Very interesting. 

It seems that performances under Manning and his decisions are not allowed to be critiqued however Nigels was. 

Man City’s schedule is of little relevance to us. It’s Southampton’s and QPR’s that’s significant to us.

And who’s “moaning”?

I didn’t feel Boro were unlucky, no. The fact that you use words like “spin” suggests you’re putting your own particular take on it. And I’ve certainly never criticised - never mind “castrated - another emotive term that doesn’t make for reasoned argument - anyone for our formation against Coventry.

But don’t keep playing the martyr?! No-one is suggesting that critiquing any manager isn’t allowed. In my mind all that’s being suggested the past 48 hours is that we show a little joy and spend a little time celebrating three points from a tricky away game! As @Davefevs said (eventually!!), just chill  

[Davefevs]

54 minutes ago, Port Said Red said:

 

Are you sure it wasn't one of the swan boats?

I do remember clipping their fast bowler for six over square leg and some sunbathing lady jumping up to the sound of “watch out”, leaving her untied bikini top on the towel beneath her.

i thought the shot deserved more than 6!!!

[W-S-M Seagull]

1 hour ago, italian dave said:

Man City’s schedule is of little relevance to us. It’s Southampton’s and QPR’s that’s significant to us.

And who’s “moaning”?

I didn’t feel Boro were unlucky, no. The fact that you use words like “spin” suggests you’re putting your own particular take on it. And I’ve certainly never criticised - never mind “castrated - another emotive term that doesn’t make for reasoned argument - anyone for our formation against Coventry.

But don’t keep playing the martyr?! No-one is suggesting that critiquing any manager isn’t allowed. In my mind all that’s being suggested the past 48 hours is that we show a little joy and spend a little time celebrating three points from a tricky away game! As @Davefevs said (eventually!!), just chill  

The original post which I replied to said

Under Manning when we win we don’t win well enough it seems.  

The original poster was in my opinion saying "because people have an agenda even when we win they can never be happy" 

I have simply been pointing out that it was the same under Pearson to add some balance and included the Coventry game as an example where there was a meltdown on here after we won. 

If Coventry were unlucky with their 1 shot on target and 0.35 xg then Boro must feel all out of luck. 

 

[transfer reader]

5 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The original post which I replied to said

Under Manning when we win we don’t win well enough it seems.  

The original poster was in my opinion saying "because people have an agenda even when we win they can never be happy" 

I have simply been pointing out that it was the same under Pearson to add some balance and included the Coventry game as an example where there was a meltdown on here after we won. 

If Coventry were unlucky with their 1 shot on target and 0.35 xg then Boro must feel all out of luck. 

 

A key difference surely being that in that game Coventry had a higher xG than us, even with just 0.35 compared to our 0.25

Whereas in Saturday's game our xG was more than Boro's.

In fact Boro's xG for the game has them as 1 goal being just about right for them, almost exactly (0.98). And ours you'd be expecting 1-2 goals, 2 more often than not (1.66). Which is also what happened.

So you're comparing a game that we won despite having created the less likely chances to score from, to one where we created a significant amount more likely chances to score from. (Significant in the fact the total difference was around the same as what a penalty would be weighted as, and the expectation with a penalty would be for it scored).

[Davefevs]

2 hours ago, transfer reader said:

A key difference surely being that in that game Coventry had a higher xG than us, even with just 0.35 compared to our 0.25

Whereas in Saturday's game our xG was more than Boro's.

In fact Boro's xG for the game has them as 1 goal being just about right for them, almost exactly (0.98). And ours you'd be expecting 1-2 goals, 2 more often than not (1.66). Which is also what happened.

So you're comparing a game that we won despite having created the less likely chances to score from, to one where we created a significant amount more likely chances to score from. (Significant in the fact the total difference was around the same as what a penalty would be weighted as, and the expectation with a penalty would be for it scored).

XG depends on your source!

Wyscout had City 1.40 / Boro 1.66

Sofascore had City 1.41 / Boro 1.84

[italian dave]

8 hours ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The original post which I replied to said

Under Manning when we win we don’t win well enough it seems.  

The original poster was in my opinion saying "because people have an agenda even when we win they can never be happy" 

I have simply been pointing out that it was the same under Pearson to add some balance and included the Coventry game as an example where there was a meltdown on here after we won. 

If Coventry were unlucky with their 1 shot on target and 0.35 xg then Boro must feel all out of luck. 

 

And I was simply pointing out that, even if there was a “meltdown” after the Coventry game, you weren’t part of it.

Your post match reaction was a focus on the positives. None of which I’d argue with.

But your post match reaction on Saturday was the polar opposite and a focus on negatives. Which I do argue with.

I’m afraid I don’t judge games on the match stats, and I’ve no idea what xg is. Call me a dinosaur, but I go by what I see at the game, what I feel, sense, hear, smell. That’s what football is about to me.

And, for example, what was significant for me on Saturday was how rarely the Boro fans really made much noise. That said far more to me about how comfortable we were than any shots on target stat.

Maybe that’s a difference between us and why we’ll never have a meeting of minds.

Talking of stats more generally though, I notice you’ve still not replied - for a second time - to mine about our punishing schedule at the moment. Interesting that when those stats don’t suit you can ignore or ‘not read’ them!

I mention that because managing our small squad through that schedule is one of the things I think LM deserves some credit for. We’ll all have views about whether and when he starts, subs, replaces players, but he knows the players situation at any time far better than we do and I think he’s managed it well.

I hesitate to say that today because I’ve a feeling tonight might be a step too far, but let’s see! 

[italian dave]

8 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

XG depends on your source!

Wyscout had City 1.40 / Boro 1.66

Sofascore had City 1.41 / Boro 1.84

I’ve just said (above) that I’ve no idea what xg is.

Have to say that this doesn’t do much to convince me it’s an objective way of measuring anything that I should take the time to learn

[Davefevs]

36 minutes ago, italian dave said:

I’ve just said (above) that I’ve no idea what xg is.

Have to say that this doesn’t do much to convince me it’s an objective way of measuring anything that I should take the time to learn

Well, as long as you don’t take one-game “expected goals” to be a way of defining the end result (some / many do, which I think is wrong), but take over a period of games, say 10+, it is a pretty strong correlation to league position.  Some scoff at it (you know who you are ), but there’s a good reason it’s being used in pro football analytics…albeit anyone worth their salt won’t use it in isolation.

As you can see, when I plot goal difference (another good barometer) vs xG goal difference, I get a decent correlation to league position.

The top four are top right.

The bottom three are bottom left…Rotherham almost off the chart.

+++++

So you may not wish to learn about it, but it shouldn’t be dissed either.

+++++

My use of xG in an individual match is to mainly around look at how quickly it climbs along the 90+ minute timeline.

You can see how Boro had more and more chances 2nd half to 1st half, whereas ours flatlined!

 

Edited February 13 by Davefevs

[transfer reader]

1 hour ago, Davefevs said:

XG depends on your source!

Wyscout had City 1.40 / Boro 1.66

Sofascore had City 1.41 / Boro 1.84

Interesting that its so different to the one I saw.

I simply took what was on Flashscore and not sure who their source is, but as their one for the Coventry game aligned with the number in the post I was quoting thought it would be at least in the same area as others. For it to be quite so far off the others surprises me. 

They must have been using a very different model to Wyscout and Sofascore

(I actually like Sofascore better for tracking stats in games, but when it comes to just checking live scores or even going back I find the Flashscore UI simpler to find what I want quickly on my phone and so went to it purely for that reason)

[PHILINFRANCE]

12 hours ago, italian dave said:

'It's also interesting that those that castrated Nige for the formation we played against Coventry to begin with have also defended Manning changing formation at half time v Boro.' 

Very interesting. 

I didn’t feel Boro were unlucky, no. The fact that you use words like “spin” suggests you’re putting your own particular take on it. And I’ve certainly never criticised - never mind “castrated - another emotive term that doesn’t make for reasoned argument - anyone for our formation against Coventry.

But don’t keep playing the martyr?! No-one is suggesting that critiquing any manager isn’t allowed. In my mind all that’s being suggested the past 48 hours is that we show a little joy and spend a little time celebrating three points from a tricky away game! As @Davefevs said (eventually!!), just chill  

I was going to suggest yesterday that @W-S-M Seagull probably meant to write castigated, but now I am begining to wonder.... 

[Davefevs]

1 hour ago, transfer reader said:

Interesting that its so different to the one I saw.

I simply took what was on Flashscore and not sure who their source is, but as their one for the Coventry game aligned with the number in the post I was quoting thought it would be at least in the same area as others. For it to be quite so far off the others surprises me. 

They must have been using a very different model to Wyscout and Sofascore

(I actually like Sofascore better for tracking stats in games, but when it comes to just checking live scores or even going back I find the Flashscore UI simpler to find what I want quickly on my phone and so went to it purely for that reason)

As per my post to Italian Dave I really don’t like xG for one off games, because they can be skewed by things like:

• successive blocked shots all getting an xG score in a melee when only one can actually be scored
• the different models (as you state) - I know of one xG model that bases its score off of the bbc live text description of the shot - I wouldn’t touch that with a bargepole!

But take a trend over 10+ games and it has some value.

I like it for comparing individual players, you’ll notice my player vizzes include them.

Spike put me onto Sofascore.

The two put together give a good feel for how the game went in terms of pressure and chances.  But I wouldn’t sit here and say Boro deserved to win because they have higher xG (in my model).  There is too much margin for error in that, imho.

[italian dave]

2 hours ago, Davefevs said:

Well, as long as you don’t take one-game “expected goals” to be a way of defining the end result (some / many do, which I think is wrong), but take over a period of games, say 10+, it is a pretty strong correlation to league position.  Some scoff at it (you know who you are ), but there’s a good reason it’s being used in pro football analytics…albeit anyone worth their salt won’t use it in isolation.

As you can see, when I plot goal difference (another good barometer) vs xG goal difference, I get a decent correlation to league position.

The top four are top right.

The bottom three are bottom left…Rotherham almost off the chart.

+++++

So you may not wish to learn about it, but it shouldn’t be dissed either.

+++++

My use of xG in an individual match is to mainly around look at how quickly it climbs along the 90+ minute timeline.

You can see how Boro had more and more chances 2nd half to 1st half, whereas ours flatlined!

 

Thanks Dave. And I’m certainly not dissing it. I don’t understand it, so I wouldn’t do that.

I really ought to learn about it…..still reckon the feeling you get from a crowd is a decent guide too though!

Interesting (if I’ve understood it right) that Boro’s biggest climb was in that 45-60 minute slot that’s been such a problem for us. At the time, I was worried, but I thought that was more about our history of conceding then.

A plus that we actually didn’t concede this time? 

[Davefevs]

Just now, italian dave said:

And I’m certainly not dissing it.

Others do!

[Davefevs]

1 minute ago, italian dave said:

really ought to learn about it…..still reckon the feeling you get from a crowd is a decent guide too though!

ooohs and aaahs, I agree.  Oooooh, awwwww, ye-oooooh,,,,,,yessssss!

Interesting (if I’ve understood it right) that Boro’s biggest climb was in that 45-60 minute slot that’s been such a problem for us. At the time, I was worried, but I thought that was more about our history of conceding then.

yes. The yin-yang of it (and my dreaded post) was also the flatline of our attack.  38 mins + injury time without a shot.  So whilst Boro weren’t in that “only a matter of time” space, the fact that we created sweet FA was as much a cause of my frustration.

A plus that we actually didn’t concede this time?

Aye.

You know I love my data, but my base reactions (+/-) come from what I witness.  I don’t even get my Wyscout data til Sunday!  It’s why I also take photos (at AG) and screenshot (RTV) of shape throughout the game.  I’m more interested in how shape impacts the game for and against than a lot else.  Harry might’ve picked up opposing player a swapping with player b, I’m more likely to pick up the shape change resulting in a live game.  On RTV I can pick out the players too.

The only thing about oohs and aahs that never correlated for me was the disproportionate ooohs we got when Eliasson crossed the ball.  Some of them never looked threatening at all, but it did get the crowds off their feet.

[italian dave]

9 minutes ago, Davefevs said:

You know I love my data, but my base reactions (+/-) come from what I witness.  I don’t even get my Wyscout data til Sunday!  It’s why I also take photos (at AG) and screenshot (RTV) of shape throughout the game.  I’m more interested in how shape impacts the game for and against than a lot else.  Harry might’ve picked up opposing player a swapping with player b, I’m more likely to pick up the shape change resulting in a live game.  On RTV I can pick out the players too.

The only thing about oohs and aahs that never correlated for me was the disproportionate ooohs we got when Eliasson crossed the ball.  Some of them never looked threatening at all, but it did get the crowds off their feet.

Oooohhhs and aaaahhhhs, but also just the general noise level. The increased level, the roar that says we feel there’s a goal coming. That only happened a couple of times on Saturday - and it didn’t really last very long.