our relegation fight? just hope they got this right

[W-S-M Seagull]

The problem is I can't see where a win is going to come from. 

[SomeRandomBristolian]

10 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The problem is I can't see where a win is going to come from. 

I aggree looking through the fixtures and not knowing if we will turn up or not. Struggling to see a game I feel confident about. 

[Numero Uno]

25 minutes ago, W-S-M Seagull said:

The problem is I can't see where a win is going to come from. 

It’s football and it’s not as simple as that. Many of us have played in teams struggling for form and even as players wonder where the next win is coming from and then you turn up, play, and get that win. How often do teams at our level go 13 without a win. If that happens that usually means the team concerned is way below the standard or there are other issues at play where players are actively looking to remove a manager. For all the mistakes we made Tuesday I don’t think that is the case. If you want rid of a manager you do what Dean Gerken did to McInnes at home to Leicester and make sure you get obliterated. Definitely “took one for the lads” that day

Edited March 8 by Numero Uno

[supercidered]

1 hour ago, Numero Uno said:

What they don't tend to do is win groups of matches.

We hardly win a match let alone groups of matches.

[DolmanGaz]

I think the number of teams below us will just about save us, BUT if you look at the last 4 results for ALL of the teams below us (ignoring Rotherham who are down!) they have ALL picked up a good number of points, and we are only 6 points (or less) ahead of them. If we lose the next 4 and they all pick up 4-6 points, we are right in it. 

They are almost all on good little runs at the minute. We are within 6 pts of them all... I know they will play each other, etc, but this worries me. Last 4 games of the teams below us:

City 0pts

Swansea 7

Plymouth 3

Blackburn 3

Millwall 7

QPR 10

Birmingham 4

Hudddersfield 4

Stoke 3

Wednesday 12

Edited March 8 by DolmanGaz

[W-S-M Seagull]

14 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

It’s football and it’s not as simple as that. Many of us have played in teams struggling for form and even as players wonder where the next win is coming from and then you turn up, play, and get that win. How often do teams at our level go 13 without a win. If that happens that usually means the team concerned is way below the standard or there are other issues at play where players are actively looking to remove a manager. For all the mistakes we made Tuesday I don’t think that is the case. If you want rid of a manager you do what Dean Gerken did to McInnes at home to Leicester and make sure you get obliterated. Definitely “took one for the lads” that day

I have grave concerns about us playing the teams below us. But it would be very Bristol City to secure our survival with wins against the likes of Leicester! 

[DaveF]

1 hour ago, Gert Mare said:

I just couldn’t comprehend it if the ridiculously idiotic decision made earlier in the season culminated in us being sent into League One. Felt sick enough back then.

I thought that getting into the Premier League was almost the impossible job for City, but this would trump it by a country mile from the position in which Manning took over.

The damage between the supporters and the board would be off the scale. Irreparable in my opinion.

Preying this doesn’t happen.

Would be an element of 'serves you right' if we did go down.

Though obviously inevitably it's the fans that suffer.

Edited March 8 by DaveF

[Fuber]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

And you know what. People get agitated about dropping into relegation so often. But what was the bottom seven on Christmas Day?

Same seven teams. 

So for all the form, all the slumps, all the manager changes and the rallies from different teams.

It's the same shite at the bottom as it was 13 matches ago.

Birmingham, QPR, Sheffield Wednesday, and Millwall in their last three games have more points than we've gotten in 5. Doesn't bode well.

I got curious and decided to have a crack at a few predictions myself using a template and a spare five minutes with array formulae.

Did not like my pessimistic results - way too close for comfort.

[DolmanGaz]

3 minutes ago, Fuber said:

Birmingham, QPR, Sheffield Wednesday, and Millwall in their last three games have more points than we've gotten in 5. Doesn't bode well.

I got curious and decided to have a crack at a few predictions myself using a template and a spare five minutes with array formulae.

Did not like my pessimistic results - way too close for comfort.

had similar thoughts myself... if the form of the last 4 repeats over the next 4 we are almost in the bottom 3. We need a win ASAP...

Edited March 8 by DolmanGaz

[bearded_red]

Still find it impossible to believe we’re actually in any trouble. Too many teams need to make up points, we probably only need 6/7 points to be safe and whether we play well or badly there’s rarely many goals in our games which should see you come out on the right end of the result enough.

However, if we don’t get a result this weekend then we could definitely be in trouble after the Leicester game. 
 

Utterly ridiculous this is even being thought and spoken about to be honest. What a self sabotage of a season.

Edited March 8 by bearded_red

[DolmanGaz]

3 minutes ago, bearded_red said:

Still find it impossible to believe we’re actually in any trouble. Too many teams need to make up points, we probably only need 6/7 points to be safe and whether we play well or badly there’s rarely many goals in our games which should see you come out on the right end of the result enough.

However, if we don’t get a result this weekend then we could definitely be in trouble after the Leicester game. 
 

Utterly ridiculous this is even being thought and spoken about to be honest. What a self sabotage of a season.

it's mad. we probably only need 4 points over 10 games to be safe, but until we win again, and the teams below keep picking up points... what a mess.

[ExiledAjax]

6 minutes ago, Fuber said:

Birmingham, QPR, Sheffield Wednesday, and Millwall in their last three games have more points than we've gotten in 5. Doesn't bode well.

I got curious and decided to have a crack at a few predictions myself using a template and a spare five minutes with array formulae.

Did not like my pessimistic results - way too close for comfort.

And yet still safe by a win plus goal difference. Looks like you've given us one win, three draws, and six presumably narrow losses to land on 50 with -9.

So as many people point out - not pretty, not good to see, but also crucially not actually any threat of actual relegation.

I assume that your prediction doesn't have us dipping into the relegation zone at any single point either?

Maybe my definition of a "relegation battle" is wildly out of line with everyone else's? But we're not in it. 

Stoke are. Huddersfield are. QPR are. We are not.

[Fuber]

1 minute ago, bearded_red said:

Still find it impossible to believe we’re actually in any trouble. Too many teams need to make up points, we probably only need 6/7 points to be safe and whether we play well or badly there’s rarely many goals in our games which should see you come out on the right end of the result enough.

However, if we don’t get a result this weekend then we could definitely be in trouble after the Leicester game. 
 

Utterly ridiculous this is even being thought and spoken about to be honest. What a self sabotage of a season.

What worries me - is that Swansea's record away, in the last five games have been DLWWD. The loss being Leicester. We need to put in a performance like we did at Ipswich, but show more steel.
They've beaten Sunderland, who we scraped past at AG, and Hull - who had some great recruitment in Jan and have since gone five unbeaten (2W, 3D).

[Fuber]

6 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

And yet still safe by a win plus goal difference. Looks like you've given us one win, three draws, and six presumably narrow losses to land on 50 with -9.

So as many people point out - not pretty, not good to see, but also crucially not actually any threat of actual relegation.

I assume that your prediction doesn't have us dipping into the relegation zone at any single point either?

Maybe my definition of a "relegation battle" is wildly out of line with everyone else's? But we're not in it. 

Stoke are. Huddersfield are. QPR are. We are not.

My results were due to the prediction that we beat Rotherham - and even then I had no faith we actually will - i.e. we turn up thinking they'll roll over rather than be professional like Coventry were the other week.

[MarcusX]

5 hours ago, 1960maaan said:

I can't be bothered to trawl through the fixtures to see when those bottom 9 play each other and so take points from each other until the end of the season. But this weekend .

           ***************

Sheffield Wednesday Vs Leeds United

Cardiff City Vs Ipswich Town

Blackburn Rovers Vs Plymouth Argyle

Hull City Vs Leicester City

Millwall Vs Birmingham City

Norwich City Vs Rotherham United

Preston North End Vs Stoke City

Queens Park Rangers Vs Middlesbrough

Southampton Vs Sunderland

Watford Vs Coventry City

Huddersfield Town Vs West Bromwich Albion

Bristol City Vs Swansea City

       *****************

Those bottom 9 teams highlighted in purple

As they stand ;

And the form table. Interesting to see QPR & Sheff W well up there.

Could be an interesting run in , one I'd be happy to watch from a distance.

I meant to add this so we can all play along at home;

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

I've got to GW43 and no one gets near us - assuming general form continues from those bottom sides.

Too many play each other, and we should probably pick up points between now and then - fwiw I've only got us as beating Plymouth and Huddersfield and losing the rest and we still have 54 by GW43

Blackburn, Stoke, Sheff Wed, Birmingham, Huddersfield all languishing around 40-45 points. I may have been a bit harsh on Blackburn's results.

I don't think we're in danger IMO.

[Sir Geoff]

1 hour ago, DolmanGaz said:

I think the number of teams below us will just about save us, BUT if you look at the last 4 results for ALL of the teams below us (ignoring Rotherham who are down!) they have ALL picked up a good number of points, and we are only 6 points (or less) ahead of them. If we lose the next 4 and they all pick up 4-6 points, we are right in it. 

They are almost all on good little runs at the minute. We are within 6 pts of them all... I know they will play each other, etc, but this worries me. Last 4 games of the teams below us:

City 0pts

Swansea 7

Plymouth 3

Blackburn 3

Millwall 7

QPR 10

Birmingham 4

Hudddersfield 4

Stoke 3

Wednesday 12

You're forgetting that we still have to play 5 of those teams. So you could argue that they only have to make up 3 points , then beat us. 

[MarcusX]

2 hours ago, HIGHRIDGE BCFC said:

If we don't win Sunday then we're definitely in a relegation battle!

I don't care how well we've played against the better sides, i can't see us getting anything from the West Brom and Leicester games.

We could then conceivably be 3 points or less above the relegation zone!

Admittedly i do believe we're probably only around 8 points off achieving safety but our form since the new year massively concerns me as to where those 8 points are coming from!

Sunday is a massive game for me!

The problem you and many others fall for is just looking at the table, counting wins and points and then fearing the worst. Not only that, but applying worst possible results to us, and assuming promotion chasing form for the other 6/7 teams at the bottom of the table.

For that to happen you're going to need results such as Sheff Wed and Cardiff to beat Leeds and Ipswich respectively - both at home but still highly unlikely. Blackburrn and Plymouth, and Millwall and Brum play each other.

Next week Sheff Wed would have to backup their massive Leeds win by beating Ipswich away. Millwall go to Leeds, the rest are all playing teams higher than them.

Good Friday Blackburn are next up to topple Ipswich, QPR and Brum play each other, Sheff Wed and Swansea face each other.

It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely many of those teams are picking up more than a few points if that. And if you do think it, I'd head to the bookies as you'll get some good odds.

[MarcusX]

2 hours ago, The turtle said:

If

Stoke

Huddersfield

Birmingham 

Qpr 

All win this weekend, and we lose , at that point... It becomes worrying

We are in the battle before the battle.

Go stick a tenner on it, £650 return.

[HIGHRIDGE BCFC]

12 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

The problem you and many others fall for is just looking at the table, counting wins and points and then fearing the worst. Not only that, but applying worst possible results to us, and assuming promotion chasing form for the other 6/7 teams at the bottom of the table.

For that to happen you're going to need results such as Sheff Wed and Cardiff to beat Leeds and Ipswich respectively - both at home but still highly unlikely. Blackburrn and Plymouth, and Millwall and Brum play each other.

Next week Sheff Wed would have to backup their massive Leeds win by beating Ipswich away. Millwall go to Leeds, the rest are all playing teams higher than them.

Good Friday Blackburn are next up to topple Ipswich, QPR and Brum play each other, Sheff Wed and Swansea face each other.

It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely many of those teams are picking up more than a few points if that. And if you do think it, I'd head to the bookies as you'll get some good odds.

I'd not even looked at who other teams have to play. I'm just going by our current form.

We literally look like we have absolutely no idea how to break down a side that aren't looking to come at us!

After just looking at who everyone has left to play, what struck me the most is how many times the teams i would say are currently in danger (bottom 10) have to play each other. There's so many "6 pointers" up for grabs which could either give teams a good chance to pull away with a few wins or make it very, very close if everyone takes points from each other?

Win Sunday and it would make a huge difference to our outlook for me!

[Bristol Oil Services]

5 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

And you know what. People get agitated about dropping into relegation so often. But what was the bottom seven on Christmas Day?

Same seven teams. 

So for all the form, all the slumps, all the manager changes and the rallies from different teams.

It's the same shite at the bottom as it was 13 matches ago.

You appear to be trying to use facts to change how people feel about Bristol City. Or about life in general, including Bristol City. Once someone forms the view that City are to be worried about - or are "agitated" - you have about as much chance of changing that view with yer xG and yer stats and numbers as ..... (something massively improbable)

[glynriley]

58 minutes ago, MarcusX said:

Go stick a tenner on it, £650 return.

Not with skybet. I only got 50’s on Wednesday 

 

Edited March 8 by glynriley

[Sleepy1968]

7 hours ago, cidered abroad said:

Not? OR Not yet?

So City will stay out of it until we need to beat Stoke in the last match of the season to stay up?

Can't rule it out.

I'm not sure I could bear to watch the game if that was the case.

[kit]

The other way to look at it is when two teams below us play each other then one of them at least is guaranteed to pick up points.

Each in turn if we don't win a game before of the swansea, plymouth, blackburn, huddersfield & stoke games are 6 pointers. 

Those 5 games are in turn massive if we haven't picked up form. And losing all of them leaves only wednesday birmingham and qpr not within 3 points of us from those 5 games.

West Brom, leicester and norwich all have high aspirations and likely will be a good team in need of 3 points still when we play them.

At the moment its only the sunderland and rotherham games where likely the teams will only be playing for pride.

Swansea game is massive as lose it and it will prove once again we can't beat teams in games we are favourites against and would take us a step closer to relegation. Win it and we probably would be one big step closer to gettinv the points to guarantee survival.

I think I said on here somewhere pre the soton game I'd seen enough to think we'd get enough points to stay up, but at the moment I have turned to think I've seen enough to think we might not get enough points to stay up.

Sunday is huge because it's another 5 games after that until we're going into a game where we are "favourites" currently.

[DaveF]

20 minutes ago, glynriley said:

Not with skybet. I only got 50’s on Wednesday 

 

Was 150/1 last week.

[glynriley]

10 minutes ago, DaveF said:

Was 150/1 last week.

Yep, odds are tumbling.

Just wanted a bit of insuarance. That would pay for my season ticket next season..!!

Edited March 8 by glynriley

[Sleepy1968]

9 minutes ago, kit said:

The other way to look at it is when two teams below us play each other then one of them at least is guaranteed to pick up points.

Each in turn if we don't win a game before of the swansea, plymouth, blackburn, huddersfield & stoke games are 6 pointers. 

Those 5 games are in turn massive if we haven't picked up form. And losing all of them leaves only wednesday birmingham and qpr not within 3 points of us from those 5 games.

West Brom, leicester and norwich all have high aspirations and likely will be a good team in need of 3 points still when we play them.

At the moment its only the sunderland and rotherham games where likely the teams will only be playing for pride.

Swansea game is massive as lose it and it will prove once again we can't beat teams in games we are favourites against and would take us a step closer to relegation. Win it and we probably would be one big step closer to gettinv the points to guarantee survival.

I think I said on here somewhere pre the soton game I'd seen enough to think we'd get enough points to stay up, but at the moment I have turned to think I've seen enough to think we might not get enough points to stay up.

Sunday is huge because it's another 5 games after that until we're going into a game where we are "favourites" currently.

I don't really think we are favourites v Swansea.

[1960maaan]

15 minutes ago, Sleepy1968 said:

I don't really think we are favourites v Swansea.

Bookies seem to. 

[kit]

Yeah that was my point, and why favourites was in quote marks.

[Sir Geoff]

48 minutes ago, glynriley said:

Yep, odds are tumbling.

Just wanted a bit of insuarance. That would pay for my season ticket next season..!!

Or cash out when the odds tumble further, if we lose to WBA and Leicester.

[REDOXO]

2 hours ago, MarcusX said:

The problem you and many others fall for is just looking at the table, counting wins and points and then fearing the worst. Not only that, but applying worst possible results to us, and assuming promotion chasing form for the other 6/7 teams at the bottom of the table.

For that to happen you're going to need results such as Sheff Wed and Cardiff to beat Leeds and Ipswich respectively - both at home but still highly unlikely. Blackburrn and Plymouth, and Millwall and Brum play each other.

Next week Sheff Wed would have to backup their massive Leeds win by beating Ipswich away. Millwall go to Leeds, the rest are all playing teams higher than them.

Good Friday Blackburn are next up to topple Ipswich, QPR and Brum play each other, Sheff Wed and Swansea face each other.

It's not impossible, but it's very unlikely many of those teams are picking up more than a few points if that. And if you do think it, I'd head to the bookies as you'll get some good odds.

Sheffield v Leeds tonight isn’t it. 
 

The mere fact we will be cheering for Leeds shows what a shit show of a top six squad Manning Tinnion and Junior have turned us into.