our relegation fight? just hope they got this right

[Never to the dark side]

https://theathletic.com/5320660/2024/03/08/championship-relegation-stoke-huddersfield-sheffield-wednesday/?source=ukdailyemail&campaign=711528&userId=10948630

[ExiledAjax]

We're not mentioned in the article. Probably because we're not in a relegation battle.

Edited March 8 by ExiledAjax

[cidered abroad]

36 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

We're not mentioned in the article. Probably because we're not in a relegation battle.

Not? OR Not yet?

So City will stay out of it until we need to beat Stoke in the last match of the season to stay up?

[1960maaan]

I can't be bothered to trawl through the fixtures to see when those bottom 9 play each other and so take points from each other until the end of the season. But this weekend .

           ***************

Sheffield Wednesday Vs Leeds United

Cardiff City Vs Ipswich Town

Blackburn Rovers Vs Plymouth Argyle

Hull City Vs Leicester City

Millwall Vs Birmingham City

Norwich City Vs Rotherham United

Preston North End Vs Stoke City

Queens Park Rangers Vs Middlesbrough

Southampton Vs Sunderland

Watford Vs Coventry City

Huddersfield Town Vs West Bromwich Albion

Bristol City Vs Swansea City

       *****************

Those bottom 9 teams highlighted in purple

As they stand ;

And the form table. Interesting to see QPR & Sheff W well up there.

Could be an interesting run in , one I'd be happy to watch from a distance.

I meant to add this so we can all play along at home;

https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/

Edited March 8 by 1960maaan

[White Stripe]

I like to look at goal difference to roughly estimate where a team is heading in terms of position in the table. City's goal difference is -2, which makes them around mid-table.  To me, this means we'll be ok, barring a complete collapse in defense.

[ExiledAjax]

1 hour ago, cidered abroad said:

Not? OR Not yet?

So City will stay out of it until we need to beat Stoke in the last match of the season to stay up?

I think we will be safe before Stoke. We will probably secure safety in either the Huddersfield or Rotherham game.

Edited March 8 by ExiledAjax

[ExiledAjax]

55 minutes ago, 1960maaan said:

As they stand ;

And you know what. People get agitated about dropping into relegation so often. But what was the bottom seven on Christmas Day?

Same seven teams. 

So for all the form, all the slumps, all the manager changes and the rallies from different teams.

It's the same shite at the bottom as it was 13 matches ago.

[TDarwall]

Things tend to change very slowly at the bottom, by this stage of the season, teams are there for a reason.

If you're battling for the top 6 every time you don't won its points lost  at the bottom if you don't lose its points won.

[Mr Popodopolous]

I expect we will be fine but the sooner we get the next win the sooner nerves will ease somewhat.

I don't see us as being wildly at risk but hopefully Sunday we will take a decent step.

Next season under the current setup, that's a much bigger concern.

Edited March 8 by Mr Popodopolous

[Son of Fred]

2 hours ago, ExiledAjax said:

We're not mentioned in the article. Probably because we're not in a relegation battle.

Fail (again)l on Sunday & were in one.

[spudski]

It's grim reading when you look at the form table over the last 10 games.

https://footystats.org/england/championship/form-table

[Capman]

The real question which the board need to answer is why we are even seeing these kind of discussions rather than a discussion about what we need from the last 10 games to push ourselves into the top 6. 

[The Dolman Pragmatist]

I always look closely at goal difference when thinking about who might be relegated.  It’s interesting that all but one of the teams below us has a goal difference of -11 or worse (Plymouth are -7), with Sheff Wed on -23 and Rotherham on -42.  By contrast our goal difference is -2, actually better than Preston who are only 4 points off the play-offs.  Of our 16 defeats this season, 13 have been by a single goal and the remaining three by two goals.  It shows just how close the margins are.  Before the Ipswich match people were talking about us being hammered, but the truth is that no one has hammered us all season, including two Premiership teams.  That, if nothing else, must give some cause for optimism.

[Numero Uno]

1 hour ago, ExiledAjax said:

I think we will be safe before Stoke. We will probably secure safety in either the Huddersfield or Rotherham game.

The fact we are even talking about “securing safety” at this point is criminal. It shouldn’t even be an issue and it’s not anywhere near good enough despite the excuses and backtracking some are scurrying round trying to make on behalf of the hierarchy. If we had even produced bang average form since the win at Watford we would be safe already.

[Numero Uno]

1 hour ago, TDarwall said:

Things tend to change very slowly at the bottom, by this stage of the season, teams are there for a reason.

If you're battling for the top 6 every time you don't won its points lost  at the bottom if you don't lose its points won.

I agree with that. The chances of ALL the teams below us showing the form needed to stay up are remote especially as they have to play each other. Even allowing for the current garbage we are showing you have to think that the odd Ipswich type performance will get us points somewhere. If we end up losing 13 in a row or even 10 out of 13 then we’ll all be speechless and the stats (we’ve lost 7 out of twelve in the current dismal run) and even occasional performances don’t indicate that occurring!!

[Numero Uno]

13 minutes ago, The Dolman Pragmatist said:

I always look closely at goal difference when thinking about who might be relegated.  It’s interesting that all but one of the teams below us has a goal difference of -11 or worse (Plymouth are -7), with Sheff Wed on -23 and Rotherham on -42.  By contrast our goal difference is -2, actually better than Preston who are only 4 points off the play-offs.  Of our 16 defeats this season, 13 have been by a single goal and the remaining three by two goals.  It shows just how close the margins are.  Before the Ipswich match people were talking about us being hammered, but the truth is that no one has hammered us all season, including two Premiership teams.  That, if nothing else, must give some cause for optimism.

Yeah, we tend to lose or win very mediocre games by the odd goal. Fine margins, agreed, but not particularly positive tbh.

[ExiledAjax]

15 minutes ago, Numero Uno said:

The fact we are even talking about “securing safety” at this point is criminal. It shouldn’t even be an issue and it’s not anywhere near good enough despite the excuses and backtracking some are scurrying round trying to make on behalf of the hierarchy. If we had even produced bang average form since the win at Watford we would be safe already.

I've not said that where we are, or the form we've shown recently, is ok or excusable. 

Personally I think the reason the conversations are happening is that some fans tend toward the dramatic, or don't quite appreciate how hard/unlikely it is to drop (or indeed climb) 8 places in 10 games. 

The conversations happen because of perceptions and a desire to have a conversation at all. It's actually not a conversation that really needs to be had... hence we're not mentioned at all in the Athletic article that NTTDS put in his OP on this thread. 

They don't think we're in the conversation.

As to the phrase "secure safety". Well 21 teams secure safety at some point in the season. Is it frustrating we've not already done so, perhaps, but mathematically I think there's quite a few teams yet to do so. So I'm relaxed about that phrase.

Edited March 8 by ExiledAjax

[HIGHRIDGE BCFC]

If we don't win Sunday then we're definitely in a relegation battle!

I don't care how well we've played against the better sides, i can't see us getting anything from the West Brom and Leicester games.

We could then conceivably be 3 points or less above the relegation zone!

Admittedly i do believe we're probably only around 8 points off achieving safety but our form since the new year massively concerns me as to where those 8 points are coming from!

Sunday is a massive game for me!

Edited March 8 by HIGHRIDGE BCFC

[LondonBristolian]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

It's grim reading when you look at the form table over the last 10 games.

https://footystats.org/england/championship/form-table

It is but, even there, there are 4 teams below us in similarly dire form. In that sense, I'm pretty optimistic that 8 teams won't overtake us between now and the end of the season so I don't think we are going to go down. I do, however, think we're risking being far closer than we should be and that's utterly inexcusable with the players we have. 

[spudski]

2 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

It is but, even there, there are 4 teams below us in similarly dire form. In that sense, I'm pretty optimistic that 8 teams won't overtake us between now and the end of the season so I don't think we are going to go down. I do, however, think we're risking being far closer than we should be and that's utterly inexcusable with the players we have. 

Maybe...fingers crossed.

Great advert for attracting further signings in the summer though. Not. 

[Supersonic Robin]

1 hour ago, TDarwall said:

Things tend to change very slowly at the bottom, by this stage of the season, teams are there for a reason.

If you're battling for the top 6 every time you don't won its points lost  at the bottom if you don't lose its points won.

Exactly this.

It sounds incredibly obvious, but people often seem to forget that the teams at the bottom of the table don't/won't win many matches.

[Numero Uno]

2 minutes ago, ExiledAjax said:

I've not said that where we are, or the form we've shown recently, is ok or excusable. 

Personally I think the reason the conversations are happening is that some fans tend toward the dramatic, or don't quite appreciate how hard/unlikely it is to drop (or indeed climb) 8 places in 10 games. 

The conversations happen because of perceptions and a desire to have a conversation at all. It's actually not a conversation that really needs to be had... hence we're not mentioned at all in the Athletic article that NTTDS put in his OP on this thread. 

They don't think we're in the conversation.

What I think will happen is we WILL get the two or three wins we need, possibly one or two we never saw coming, and SOME people will be on here proclaiming "you were all bedwetting and panicking, he was never going to relegate us blah blah blah". That won't wash with me though. I'm looking ahead and unless/until Manning delivers a RUN OF GAMES IN THE REMAINDER OF THIS SEASON that show how we might head upwards under his management I am going to have no confidence in the bloke to prevent us from being in a season-long relegation battle next season. That's where I am.

If we end up safe this season yet still get turned over or fail to beat the likes of Blackburn, Huddersfield and Rotherham at home then all it shows me is that he isn't learning on the job. For me, on the basis he won't get fired and in terms of judging him going forward, that's three games right there where we have to pick up a minimum of six points regardless of what we do in the other games.

[Numero Uno]

1 minute ago, Supersonic Robin said:

Exactly this.

It sounds incredibly obvious, but people often seem to forget that the teams at the bottom of the table don't/won't win many matches.

What they don't tend to do is win groups of matches.

[DaveF]

1 hour ago, spudski said:

It's grim reading when you look at the form table over the last 10 games.

https://footystats.org/england/championship/form-table

If everyone's form continues as it has the last 10 matches we'll still stay up, though it would be a pathetic end to the season. 

[The turtle]

If

Stoke

Huddersfield

Birmingham 

Qpr 

All win this weekend, and we lose , at that point... It becomes worrying

We are in the battle before the battle.

[ashton_fan]

We seem to be a bit more streaky under Manning than we were with Pearson, so once we get one win we're likely to get another soon after which will get us to 50 points. Once we have a couple more back from injury, especially Twine who was impressive in his only appearance, we'll start climbing the table again.

[JAWS]

It helps of you start ur best players & play them in their best positions 

[milo1111]

1 minute ago, ashton_fan said:

We seem to be a bit more streaky under Manning than we were with Pearson, so once we get one win we're likely to get another soon after which will get us to 50 points. Once we have a couple more back from injury, especially Twine who was impressive in his only appearance, we'll start climbing the table again.

It’s getting that one win though isn’t it and if it doesn’t come Sunday we could easily be in or just above the relegation zone very quickly with how hard the few games after are.

Then the jitters kick in and anything can happen.

[Davefevs]

18 minutes ago, LondonBristolian said:

It is but, even there, there are 4 teams below us in similarly dire form. In that sense, I'm pretty optimistic that 8 teams won't overtake us between now and the end of the season so I don't think we are going to go down. I do, however, think we're risking being far closer than we should be and that's utterly inexcusable with the players we have. 

I’m with you.  I don’t think we’ll go down because it requires (bar Swansea) 7/8 teams above us to all get at least 4 more points than us, some 5, some 6, and possibly 7 if GD is kept sensible.

Thats not to say it won’t happen, and that’s not to say it won’t be a bit “hairy” too.

2 minutes ago, ashton_fan said:

We seem to be a bit more streaky under Manning than we were with Pearson, so once we get one win we're likely to get another soon after which will get us to 50 points. Once we have a couple more back from injury, especially Twine who was impressive in his only appearance, we'll start climbing the table again.

Those streaks are getting smaller each streak…maybe the next streak can’t really be classified as a streak!

[Gert Mare]

I just couldn’t comprehend it if the ridiculously idiotic decision made earlier in the season culminated in us being sent into League One. Felt sick enough back then.

I thought that getting into the Premier League was almost the impossible job for City, but this would trump it by a country mile from the position in which Manning took over.

The damage between the supporters and the board would be off the scale. Irreparable in my opinion.

Preying this doesn’t happen.

Edited March 8 by Gert Mare